– “…creation of social welfare scheme…will eject
$7.575b from the treasury annually. Where President
Buhari hopes to get the money still remains a
mystery…”
– “Free meal for each child per day at N200 per meal
will cost Nigeria N14.4b. Where will N14.4b nutrition
money emanate from?”
– “Empirically, the APC success in the presidential poll
is positively correlated with the mindless promises
they’ve made”.
During 2015 electoral campaign, the APC made a
number of promises, both attainable and
unattainable, to attract the voters. Thisday newspaper
compiled a total of 35 promises, and the mind-
blowing ones were:
– Creation of social welfare scheme that will provide
25m poorest and most vulnerable citizens with at least
N5,000 per month, help to enroll their children in
schools and promote family stability.
– One free meal per day including fruits for the
children attending public primary schools.
– Creation of 3 million jobs per annum.
– Naira to dollar equalization.
– Eradication of “state of origin” category by
replacing it with “state of residence” category to
enhance national unity.
I have issues with these promises for a number of
reasons. Firstly, creation of social welfare scheme for
providing 25m citizens with N5,000 every month will
eject $7.575b from the treasury annually. Where
President Buhari hopes to get the money still remains
a mystery to most of us as the fall in oil prices has
turned this lofty plan into a mirage. Surprisingly,
Buhari made the promise when the oil was selling below
$50. Workers on the payroll of about twenty Nigerian
states cannot receive their salaries, and the country’s
treasury is bleeding red ink. Any addition to the
recurrent government expenditure will be suicidal.
Secondly, according to the UNICEF, children under 15
account for about 45% of the Nigerian growing
population. This entails that 72m children (45% of the
the total 160 million Nigerians) attend primary schools
at the moment provided the Almagiri children in the
north, the Agbero kids in the west and the street
hawkers in the southeast also get enrolled. Free meal
for each child per day at N200 per meal will cost
Nigeria N14.4b. Another illusion, you may say. Where
will N14.4b nutrition money emanate from? If this
figure is imbedded into the national budget, Nigeria
will spend N4.32t just to feed the children excluding
the 10% traditional kickback demanded by civil
servants. I wonder, do you still remember how much is
our national budget?
Thirdly, the APC did not specify how the promised 3m
jobs would be created. I don’t believe that the
federal, state and local governments will bear the
burden because most ministries and agencies are
overstaffed, and their budgets are limited. Have we
fallen victims of the APC cruel hoax?
Redenomination of naira is a welcome move. It will
discourage capital flight, brain drain, curb inflation
and stabilize our national currency. Many countries
including Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Ghana have
done it before and achieved positive results. However,
the APC should not be oblivious of the forces that
stopped Prof Soludo from pursuing this policy. The
consequences of unemployment on the foreign
exchange market should be taken into account. I am
not a pessimist, but I doubt President Buhari will
pursue the policies that may hurt the Fulani who are
majorly into dollar for naira exchange business.
Empirically, the APC success in the presidential poll is
positively correlated with the mindless promises they’ve
made. This is because the bargaining power of the
electorate are votes. Thomas Hobbes impliedly noted
that by voting people surrender their inalienable right
to govern in exchange for good governance as
captured in the campaign manifestoes.