Beware of Another Civil war, US report warns Nigeria beams up satellite on illegal northern arms importation.


A new security report entitled "Nigerian Unity in the Balance" authored for the United States Army War College has, again, warned Nigerian leaders to beware of another civil war or an outright break-up following what it called ongoing divisive trends in the country. The report comes in the shadow of recent discoveries and interception of arms and ammunition in some parts of northern Nigeria.

This development has raised fears and alarm in security and southern political circles as to the goals of the forces behind the smuggling of arms. While similar arm discoveries had happened in some southern states in recent past, the frequency of such discoveries in the North in recent days has reportedly increased the level of intelligence shadowing and surveillance in the area.

The US Army report released in June this year by the Strategic Studies Institute of War College was written by two former American servicemen, Gerald McLaughlin and Clarence J. Bouchat. McLaughlin is a graduate of the U.S. Army War College while Bouchat is also an adjunct professor at the U.S. Army War College (USAWC).



The 103-page report, whose foreword was written by the Director, Strategic Studies, Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, Professor Douglas Lovelace, observed that divisive forces were waxing stronger than uniting forces in Nigeria, warning that unless this was reversed, Nigeria`s existence could be jeopardised. According to the report, “Parochial interests created by religious, cultural, ethnic, economic, regional, and political secessionist tendencies are endemic in Nigeria. Under such stresses, Nigerian unity may fail.



“Should Nigeria’s leaders mismanage the political economy and reinforce centrifugal forces in Nigeria, the breaks to create autonomous regions or independent countries would likely occur along its previously identified fault lines,” the report warned. “Having already experienced one brutal civil war, Nigeria is at risk for a recurrence of conflict or dissolution, especially since some of the underpinning motivations of the war remain unresolved," the report observed, detailing many fault lines speeding up disintegrative tendencies in the country.



“Indeed, East Timor, Eritrea, Croatia, and Somaliland indicate that the weakest point of failing states is along colonial borders. Of more interest for Nigerian unity is that this may also occur between regions separately administered by a common colonial power, as occurred between Malaysia and Singapore, and North and South Sudan, where differences proved irreconcilable after the departure of British administration. At least, some of the resulting regions and states of a possible Nigerian devolution may divide along such internal lines”, the report projected.



While conceding that Nigeria’s fate is primarily in the hands of Nigerians, the report noted that such could be positively affected by actions of the US, adding that “Nigeria’s future is in balance and the United States should help tip the scales.” The report particularly warned that religious differences were taking the centre-stage in the emerging conflict situation in the country, disputing repeated reports that economic reasons were to blame for the insurgency and other conflicts in the country.



The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrategic analysis.



Meanwhile, as insurgency remains a major headache in the Northeastern part of the country, with the growing cases of arms stockpile in the North-West states giving security analysts sleepless nights, especially as clues with regards to the motives of the masterminds remaining yet unclear. As of the time of filing this report, security agencies are reportedly focusing on both local and external sources in their bid to unravel the sudden surge in the trafficking menace.

Sunday Tribune was told that the initial suspicion indicate that the importation of arms was due to transnational islamist terrorists arming local jihadists, as well as using Nigeria as a transit route in the Sahel arms and related smuggling trade. This line of thought appeared to be the main preoccupation of the security agencies for sometime until in the last one month when political motivation reportedly entered the review process.

While analysts are yet to find direct linkage between political actors and the arm storage and smuggling, there are fears that threats from key leaders suggest a zone preparing for war depending on the outcome of the 2015 race. An insider told Sunday Tribune that the intensity of arms stockpiles correlates with the heightening of tension and mounting attacks on the presidency by political opposition and political dissenters within the ruling party.

It will be recalled that the arms cache found in Kano is still a mystery despite the ongoing prosecution of the Lebanese involved in the entire saga. The security agencies are also at a loss over what alleged Hezbollah Shiite agents will be doing with the Sunni-led Boko Haramists on the arms stockpile. Boko Haram is said to belong to the Sunni school of Islam, attributing a link between them and the Lebanese under trial over the arms cache is now proving very difficult among intelligence analysts in the country. Though it is being suggested that the Shiite group could have its own separate mission in the country.

The Kano arms discovery, therefore, is reported to have given rise to many theories, one of such is the possibility of a non-religious involvement, with political undertone being the chief reason. This theory is believed to have gained ground after the Zamfara State government got embroiled in an arms importation controversy, claiming it wanted to arm vigilante groups in the state. The way and manner the state government imported the arms allegedly without police approval has since become a subject of investigation which is said to be attracting attention of many within the security circles.

A security official confessed under the condition of anonymity that importation of arms without prior approval is a violation of the law. Said he: “for a state government to have done that, it is a matter to be taken seriously.”

Though the Zamfara State government has since justified its action on the need to combat criminal gangs operating freely in the state, keen watchers of the 2015 drama, however, point out that arming vigilantes in the countdown to 2015 sent mixed signals. Many people believe that once Zamafara succeeds in its move, other state governments would follow suit, leading to proliferation of arms in the country and a potentially explosive electoral year in 2015.

While the controversy over Zamfara arms importation is still boiling, a tanker filled with assorted arms and ammunition was impounded on the Kebbi-Zamafara axis with the source of the importation still unknown. With hundreds of such tankers in remote parts of northwestern Nigeria, fears are spreading that there may be a deliberate program to acquire arms by some unknown elements in the northern parts of the country ahead of 2015 elections.

Four days after the tanker was impounded, another arms cache was discovered in the sleepy state of Jigawa with exchange of fire between security agencies and those described as Boko Haram operatives. Security analysts, however, faulted the reference to Boko Haram, as Jigawa has never witnessed any Boko Haram attack since the insurgency started. Others claimed the exchange of fire did not explain the owner of the arms or who masterminded their stockpile in the state.

Another source told Sunday Tribune of the fear being nursed in that sector, saying “the situation is scary. We cannot say for sure that all these arms are imported by islamists. We cannot prove that. We can also not prove that politicians are behind the caches of arms for electoral purposes. All what we know for sure is that there is an arms build-up in the core North,” a security official, said.

While the real motive behind the huge arms stockpile is still under investigation by security agencies, the statement credited to the Chief of Staff to the President, Chief Mike Oghiadohme, warning against civil war is cited by other analysts to argue that the presidency already has more facts over security situation in the country and, particularly, about arms build-up in northern part of the country than it is letting out. Oghiadohme had called attention to the tragedy of the last civil war, warning that leaders and elders should beware of actions and utterances capable of plunging the nation into another conflict.

The arms build-up situation has become an open issue within the Nigerian military, which is battling insurgency in the North-East. Though the military is not ruling out political opportunism, it however suspects the Islamists to be behind the arms build-up, while the wider intelligence community are fingering political forces as being neck-deep in the menace.

Sagir Musa,spokesman of the Joint Task Force in Borno, while confirming the arms proliferation gave greater insight into the problem facing the North and the country as a whole in a recent statement on the issue.

Said he: “Nigeria’s borders are massive with hundreds of footpaths crisscrossing to neighboring countries of Cameroon, Chad and Niger with links to Mali, Libya and Sudan. From conservative estimates by locals, there are well over 250 footpaths from Damaturu/Maiduguri axis that link or lead direct to Cameroon, Chad or Niger. These paths, which are mostly unknown to security agencies, are unmanned, unprotected and have continued to serve as conveyor belts for arms and ammunition trafficking into Nigeria.

“It is disheartening and unfortunate that the “merchants of death” have since devised methods to beat security agencies at the borders, chief among them, through the footpaths. These methods include the use of camels, donkeys and cows to traffic arms, ammunition and drugs such as cocaine into Nigeria. The fact that the weapons are small, light and collapsible makes it easy to be concealed and moved on camels and donkeys’ backs in a specially crafted skin or thatched bags mainly meant for the illegal “expedition” undetected. Similarly, some cows and grains merchants in the North-East sub-region of the country device means of hiding cache of arms and ammunition in empty fuel tankers, vehicle engines and bags of grains.

“The “grains” are transported in large number via trucks, trailers, lorries and old model pickup vans and Jeeps with little attention given to them by security agents. The use of Jega-type of tricycles (KEKE-NAPEP) as well as camels, donkeys, and cows (moving in flocks) to deceive, hide and conveniently traffic arms in some parts of the North are ways hitherto unknown, not well known”, Musa noted.

He explained further that “the Libyan and Malian rebels are desperate to exchange arms for money to Boko Haram terrorists, their financiers and collaborators as the sect has since been affiliated to Al-Qaida in the Maghreb. This has added to the overwhelming challenge of the influx of illegal aliens, arms, ammunition and sophisticated IED materials into the country and an efficient and effective fight against terrorism,” Musa had stated.

Sunday Tribune was, however, told that the political angle is already taking the center stage of discreet investigation into the discoveries. Already, it was gathered that investigation into the Kano arms caches has been extended to foreign soil, while the security agencies are said to be mounting pressure to ensure that Zamfara vigilantes are not armed with weapons.

As the arms influx expands, the questions on the lips of keen security analysts are many. Who is preparing for war? Is the North becoming a Somalia? And is the South too secretly building up its own arms, and/or has not been undetected? Could the flexing of muscles by politicians be a subtle declaration of war over 2015?

Only a thorough investigation by the security agencies can provide the necessary answers.

Sources include Sunday Tribune

Buy one gun and get one free
Get prepared

When we say that nigeria is sick some pple will not understand..northern nigeria pilling up arms..for what reason? And our so called leaders down south are busy playing politics. Others are busy with media propaganda, the cause of the civil in nigeria has remained unsolved and u think their will be peace? God save us

Odi kwa very very risky, let me go and oil my "shalabuka" just incase those boys frm the north start, I will not be caught unaware!

I can see that this report is based on developments prior to the last presidential election. The report itself was released in June, that's four months ago.

I hope we avoid another civil war in Nigeria. Those who don't know what war is should watch YouTube videos of Syrian war, Somalia war, Rwanda war or any other war in recent history.

War no be beans!

About time I take Firearms training, and while at it get myself something usable. Bette be ready as, "Warsaw did not see war until war saw Warsaw"

Separation is necessary and the Niger delta militants hold the trump card.

Separation is necessary and the Niger delta militants hold the trump card.
Nothing else holds the country together other than oil. Once that oil stops flowing, the illegal and diabolical construct of an outrageous pseudo -feudal state would become weak.
Nothing joins the country together better than the monthly sharing of revenues.
You only need to ask a few questions before you determine that all the shouts of "One Nigeria" does not make a country.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooo!
This is one thing with this western world that smacks of hypocrisy.

Let them direct the warning to the appropriate quarter.
They should warn President Buhari and his APC, not Nigeria.

What is bound to happen must surely happen.
If we're truthful to ourselves will know there's no cohesiveness in the nation called Nigeria, the people that are lumped together to form this country are dissimilar in culture, religion, behaviour and what not. They've tried so much to maintain this farce but the dissimilarity is quite conspicuous for all to see.

The earlier they come together for a round table discussion for the dissolution of this synthetic contraption the better.

We don't need America to tell us what we already know. It's only those playing the ostrich that'll tell you that there's nothing wrong with this forced marriage.

Let's do the needful and separate this marriage amicably so we can avert so much bloodshed of the innocent.