Abubakar Bala
On Sunday, November 8, 2015, some Sunday newspapers (for example, Vanguard p.7, Tribune frontpage, Nigerian Pilot frontpage) carried reports of the substance of a press conference addressed the previous day in Abuja by members of the South-South Elders Coalition For Justice. The press conference raised an alarm over a Draft Penetration Strategy Document prepared by the All Progressives Congress (APC), which outlines a series of measures that the party and its government would take in order to wrest control of a number of states, especially in the South-South zone.

The text of the Penetration Strategy document was subsequently published at pp. 9-11 of Nigerian Pilot of Monday, November 9, 2015. The document was originally available online at www.elombah.com. I have since taken notice that, considering its usually swift reactions to matters of this nature, especially one that alleges invidious plans by the party to line up institutions of state to realise an unwholesome agenda, the APC has not uttered a word of denial or rebuttal.


The leaked document is the public exposure of a growing thinking in influential circles of Nigeria’s ruling political party that the consolidation of the party’s victory in the 2015 general elections can be guaranteed only by a systematic and relentless expansionist agenda. By this thinking, the ruling party must strive to take control of some critical states that are currently governed by other political parties. The ruling party’s influential thinkers have surveyed the country’s geo-political map, and come to the realisation that the oil resource-bearing states are under the control of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the erstwhile ruling party. These states include Ondo, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom , and Abia.


How it reached the conclusion is uncertain. But the impression is gaining ground among the apparatchiks of the ruling party that their non-control of the oil-producing states enumerated above is a national security issue. My guess is that framing it as a national security issue is intended to mask the real intention, which is how to mobilise resources for, and triumph in the 2019 general elections. This is against the background of the role that Rivers State played in the formation, financing, and operation of the ruling party, whose electoral fortunes might have been impaired without a steady flow of resources for electoral contest not only at the national level, but in some states as well.


By formulating its partisan game-plan as a national security issue, there is justification in mobilizing all relevant institutions of state, as well as all arms of government, in addressing the “national security issue”. Thus, the planners in the ruling party seem to have identified the low-hanging fruits that can be quickly harvested. These low-hanging fruits can be seen in the outcome of the election petitions filed in the governorship elections in most states controlled by the PDP. In this wise, it is becoming obvious, even to the blind, how the Election Petition Tribunals are giving wildly differing judgments on petitions that have virtually similar facts.


While petitions filed by the governorship candidates of the PDP are being dismissed, those filed by candidates of the ruling party against PDP candidates are being upheld in a manner that leaves even the most broad-minded jurist flabbergasted. In this sense, we can see how, willy-nilly, the judicial arm of government has been somewhat co-opted into the ruling party’s expansionist agenda disguised as a national security concern. With the exception of Delta State, witness for instance the Tribunal judgments in the governorship election petitions in Akwa Ibom (where most of the results were annulled and a partial re-run ordered), and Rivers (where all the results were nullified and a total re-run ordered within 90 days).


An immediate reaction to the foregoing examples would be that they are decisions of courts of first instance, and that those who are dissatisfied with the outcome are entitled to appeal. The counterpoint here would be that the law is an ass. Appeal is highly technical, and at that level, a case already decided by a lower court is not reopened again with witnesses and evidence. In other words, an appeal is not a trial. Thus, an appeal can be lost on a technicality, as was the case with Emeka Ihedioha, the PDP candidate in the Imo governorship election, whose appeal to the Supreme Court was recently thrown out on a technicality, which sealed his fate.


In a treatise, “Nigeria: Why Change And How?” published at pp. 42-44 of the November 1, 2015 edition of Daily Trust (Sunday), Ambassador Babagana Kingibe dwelt on the foundational principles that should govern the new Administration set up by the ruling party. According to Kingibe, “The very notion of change in the context of the current national mantra implies the idea of dissatisfaction with what is, and the need to improve upon it or discard it.” He wrote further: “Irrespective of our individual constructions and expectations of the change we want to see in Nigeria, at the minimum, our starting point should surely be a commitment ‘to tame the power of the state and direct its activities towards ends regarded as legitimate by the people it serves, and to regularize the exercise of power under the rule of law’. That includes an end to impunity in official and personal conduct.”


What one can deduce from the planned expansionism by the ruling party is that its thinkers have been linear in their thinking, failing to take along other current and volatile occurrences in the country. Boko Haram has inflicted deep wounds on Nigeria, and the cost will be borne for years to come. Whether we see it as a joke, or merely the flight of fancy of a fringe group that does not have the support of the majority of the Igbo ethnic group, the Biafra idea is rising with protests swollen by larger numbers of demonstrators. It just might take one ugly incident to change the tone and colouration of the current pro-Biafra protests and then the country could be faced with a groundswell of agitation whose end result no one safely predict.


Besides, the South-South feels wounded by the turn of events following the 2015 general elections. They went out to vote, but they lost out, because the majority carries the day. Since of the advent of the new government, the trumpeting of corruption against the previous government has been perceived as persecution of their kith and kin, rather than a nation-wide cleansing.

It would reach a point, and we might begin to hear again that, after all, the resources come from their zone, and that they cannot be against their sons and daughters who served in the Federal Government. Here, the scenario reminds me of what happened in the case of the recently deceased Chief DSP Alamieyeseigha, former Governor of Bayelsa State, who was treated as an Izon hero, notwithstanding that he was impeached, tried, convicted and jailed for corruption, in addition to the seizure of some of his properties. If the people of the South-South perceive an onslaught by way of expansionism by the ruling political party, how would they react, considering that most are still now licking their wounds from the loss suffered during the presidential election of 2015?


For a number of reasons, the ruling party would need to apply the brakes, and rethink its options. Since 1999, Nigeria has never been a one-party state, and that is not about to change. Tried as they could, the PDP could never capture all 36 states. Expansionism as conceived by the new ruling party is the new synonym for capture, as the PDP used it when they were in power. It implies impunity, disdain for the rule of law, the summoning of state resources and institutions for an invidious end; it means ultimately subversion of the will of the people.

But it also sows seeds of anger and discord. If we are struggling to quench the Boko Haram fire, why start another fire in another zone? Can the ruling party in such circumstance deliver on its electoral promise of security, and jobs? Can the economy grow in conflict? Answers to these questions mean that Kingibe’s article quoted above takes on a whole new meaning, including the inherent responsibility of the ruling party to safeguard the nation by restraining abuse of power, in this case an expansionist agenda.


My final word on this matter is to leave some food for thought. In the 2003 elections, the PDP planned a sweep of the South–West states. Through a combination of guile and barefaced rigging, the PDP won the governorship election in all the states, except Lagos.

The PDP could have deployed similar tactics that saw to its success in other South-West states, but opted to apply the brakes, because on a cost-benefit analysis, the cost of trying to take control of Lagos was overwhelming. Some of those who were on either side at the time in 2003 are today in the same ruling party at the national level. Let them review the 2003 onslaught, and ask what lessons there are to learn today. If they are sincere, they would overrule the current thinkers of the ruling party, and ask them to back off from their dangerous expansionist game-plan.

Nonsense, seems you are suffering from amnesia. when PDP was all bent on taking over the whole of south west in 2003 have we forgotten? Thank God for asiwaju bola Ahmed tinubu who held his ground. Also when PDP took over from apga in south east all of you were quiet.

When some political juggernaut were boasting that PDP will be the only party in Nigeria, you were silent...

Now because the people are wiser, you are complaining.

That is a lesson for APC, when they stop performing, they will be booted out. And I am expecting that to happen in osun state

Summary Please

Wailing wailers, in the history of Nigeria, the Rivers State has always come under the same party as the one at the centre. 2015 won't be an exception. Besides, there is evidence of irregularities in the last election in the state.

tobimillar:
Nonsense, seems you are suffering from amnesia. when PDP was all bent on taking over the whole of south west in 2003 have we forgotten? Thank God for asiwaju bola Ahmed tinubu who held his ground. Also when PDP took over from apga in south east all of you were quiet.

When some political juggernaut were boasting that PDP will be the only party in Nigeria, you were silent...

Now because the people are wiser, you are complaining.

That is a lesson for APC, when they stop performing, they will be booted out. And I am expecting that to happen in osun state

The change is here to correct whatever wrong PDP did. Not to tit for tat their silly and risky misdeeds. We must give room for a free country. Though your last line cleared the air on your position. The citizens must henceforth determine who oversees their resources and not greedy politicians.
Long live tobimillar
Long live Buhari
Long live Nigeria.

OrlandoOwoh:
Wailing wailers, in the history of Nigeria, the Rivers State has always come under the same party as the one at the centre. 2015 won't be an exception. Besides, there is evidence of irregularities in the last election in the state.

Too partisan. Partisanship has always and will always serve individuals only. Let the citizens determine who leads or serves them. Thats the Change i had in mind. Sanu!

fulaniHERDSman:

The change is here to correct whatever wrong PDP did. Not to tit for tat their silly and risky misdeeds. We must give room for a free country. Though your last line cleared the air on your position. The citizens must henceforth determine who oversees their resources and not greedy politicians.
Long live tobimillar
Long live Buhari
Long live Nigeria.

That is how politics should be... When the people know how powerful they are, the politicians will stop taking then for granted. And thank you fulaniherdsman

fulaniHERDSman:

Too partisan. Partisanship has always and will always serve individuals only. Let the citizens determine who leads or serves them. Thats the Change i had in mind. Sanu!

Yes, the people should determine whom their leaders will be hence the cancelation of the last election in Rivers and the ordering for a fresh one to be conducted. The last one was a sham.

The article is nonsense. What is he implying? By some 'leaked' document that could be typed and printed anywhere? That's nonsense. Election in Akwa ibom was nonsense and should be conducted again for the people to choose who they want to be governor.

Stop writing nonsense to get public sympathy. Address the issues that bordered on the election and why such cancellation was necessary