4Play:

The reason I hadn't replied to your post is that an adequate response requires copious references to data which I don't have the time to gather here but I will make a few points. You have to note that the premise of my original post - that the new budget must be fuelled by debt - has already been conceded. The budget projects 1.8 trillion Naira in debt will be required, nearly a third of projected spending. That Naira sum of projected debt in one year has no historical parallel. Given Nigeria's budgeting history, you will know that it's likely to prove an underestimate by the completion of the fiscal year.

4Play:

Now, in my original post, I made a point which I have noticed much of the analyses in the post-GEJ era has overlooked. I said the following: "If revenues next year would be high enough to meet such spending, it should be happening already."The boilerplate response has been that 6 months is insufficient time to remedy many years of damage, but that misses the point. If GEJ's administration was stealing 40% of our budget as you claim, not to mention stolen revenue as Sanusi's famous $20bn claim alludes to, merely changing government should see an improvement in revenue reported. Instead, data on non-oil tax revenue, oil production and oil revenue remain lacklustre.

This is not a question of fixing our problems within six months, that is a straw man. It is a question of seeing some measure of improvement which justifies the outlandish claims about previous corruption. Think of a simple thought experiment: Supposing as a UK resident you entrust a business in Nigeria to family friend who reports to you that yearly and monthly revenue were circa 24m naira and 2m naira respectively. Eventually, you are told that the friend is looting 40% of the revenue and as a result you replace him. After 6 months with the new replacement in charge, won't you be a bit taken aback if the new person is still reporting circa 2m naira a month in revenue? If you look at official reported data, it is as if the old government is still in power. In the light of the lack of improvement, continuing to claim that things will be better next year is the triumph of hope over experience. What Paul Krugman refers to as a zombie idea, i.e., a false idea which is not killed by evidence.

I thought it might be useful to leave you with a few links which illustrate what I am referring to: Here is an extract from an article referring to February 2015 revenue: http://leadership.ng/news/418438/faac-fg-states-lgs-share-n522bn-for-february

Here is September 2015 revenue: https://www.nairaland.com/2697931/faac-fg-states-lgs-share#39470160

Once you adjust for currency depreciation and the fall in oil prices for the respective periods, you can't see much evidence of improvement.

ThundrCork:

makes a lot of sense, but how many have access or understand these psycho-economic analysis? how many will be patient to reach the hope phase let alone the confidence phase? Nigerians are very impatient people and even worse when they are deprived their means of livelihood. While it is important for the government to employ stiff measures, they should also not forget that an uprising could easily unseat them. best to hold on to power and devise mild ways to make things right than employ stiff measures and loose control totally.

elampiro:
According to OPEC website, oil price averaged $107.46 in 2011
$109.45 in 2012
$105.87 in 2013
$96.29 in 2014
$52 in 2015

Bevista:
I'll help with some figures of the budget proposals of the FG from 2011, just to provide some perspective:

2011
Budget Proposed - N4.97Trillion
Oil Price Used - $75
Oil Production - 2.3mbbls/day

2012
Budget Proposed - N4.75Trillion
Oil Price Used - $70
Oil Production - 2.48mbbls/day

2013
Budget Proposed - N4.98Trillion
Oil Price Used - $79
Oil Production - 2.53mbbls/day

2014
Budget Proposed - N4.91Trillion
Oil Price Used - $75
Oil Production - 2.39mbbls/day

2015
Budget Proposed - N4.49Trillion
Oil Price Used - $53
Oil Production - 2.28mbbls/day

2016
Budget Proposed - N6.0Trillion
Oil Price Used - $38
Oil Production - 2.2mbbls/day

I am interested in seeing the revenue details from the budget to know exactly how government intends to fund the budget. My first instinct, though, is that leackages in revenue generating agencies (like NCS, NPA, NNPC, etc) have been blocked and all funds channeled into the TSA. That the government has been able to come up with that size of budget - even in the face of declining oil prices & lower oil production levels - without depreciating the official exchange rate of the Naira - is truly remarkable.

How GEJ (with benchmark oil price of over $75 throughout his term) was not able to come up with a budget of up to N5T beggars belief. One can now say without equivocation that, had PMB met an oil price of $75, we would be talking about a N10T budget. Kindly note that during GEJ term, oil price was actually higher ($105) than the budget benchmark and yet our Foreign Reserves and ECA was declining.

chinchum:


Naija would have shut down by now under GEJ, brent oil price now at 38dollars /barrel, GEJ period had oil boom of over 100 usd on the average, though budget benchmark was at avg of 75usd, meaning the extra 25usd + over budget benchmark was saved in to excess crude account. Many do not realise the enormity of the current situation in a Nigeria that was virtually anchored on oil price. I daily praise God, majority of Nigerian voters did not make the mistake of bringing GEJ back.

Bevista:
I can understand your sentimental attachment to the Oil issue, and that is because you think it is your commodity. For the records, I am from Akwa Ibom State and the last time I checked we were contributing the most to Federation Account.

There is absolutely nothing wrong if the budget hangs on oil. It has always been that way, even while GEJ was president. When GEJ was there, how many times did you speak about true federalism? It is obvious you are still pained by his defeat, but I would advise you to move on. He was a disgrace to his people and the entire SS. The country under PMB will be better for you, except you were a direct beneficiary of the corruption under GEJ.

Sagamite:

Well, I think there are 3 points you have to consider here:

1) The drastic drop in oil prices mean that revenues has drastically dropped. To make that $20bn now would probably take, at least, twice the amount of time it would take to have made it during the Yam Festival. Even after discounting the 40% of the yam being eaten during the time the country had a yam rush. Revenues from $110 per barrel is far higher than that at $42 per barrel.

“There was loss of about 24.48 million dollars in revenue due to further drop in crude oil prices from 52.3 dollars in December 2014 to 48.6 dollars in January.

" There was revenue loss of 32 million dollars as a result of drop in average price of crude oil from 56.7 dollars in July to 47.3 dollars in August 2015.

2) Change/Transformation does not happen like that. Just because you change leadership does not mean people would change. They would need to see the change in paradigm and punishment being enforced at a level and style that is a deterrent. That would not happen in 6 months. Definitely not in 6 months PMB & YB used for planning. Many would have thought "This is Nigeria, you can't change anything. It is the way it is", so why would they change a habit their lifestyle depends on when they still have their system of crookedness in place? Worse still when the government had no ministers in those 6 months to control anything.

3) When you want to implement a transformation (which is actually what we are having in Nigeria now, not just "change" ), things tend to first get bad at the beginning before they get good (sometimes, very bad especially when what existed before is very bad and entrenched in the culture). Many things have to be deconstructed before being reconstructed. So much uncertainty creeps in because people struggle to see how it would all end and tie up together as they have not seen such transformation before and it is complex. That is what is happening in Nigeria now. Uncertainty is one thing that is the worst enemy of investors. That is why we are seeing and would be seeing a series of job losses in Nigeria for another 6 months or so.

We were living in an artificial economy where the Cretin and his Goats were lying to the people about all things while creating an unsustainable bubble. Now they have their cretins out there criticising on all things shamelessly to distract the government.

4Play:
I don't thnk the mention function works very well: I will make some rebuttal points on this matter but I don't think the premise of my original post is disputable now that the budget has been officially presented.

Firstly, I do not share your optimism about the new government as it is an optimism that has a tenuous link with reality. What is conspicuous by its absence in your posts, in a debate about public finance by the way, is recourse to data. I said in a post about a month ago that the easiest prediction to make in the social sciences is "more of the same." Buhari's government would prove to be inept just as every previous Nigerian government since independence. I would explicate more on this later but let me deal with some of the points you raised:



Except that this point has already been factored in in my comment. You only need to look at my post that you quoted to see that I made reference to February 2015 data and compared this with September 2015 data. I did this primarily because February 2015 revenue was derived from a time oil prices were circa $50 per barrel. For the February 2015 report link: - From the September 2015 report link: . In summary, reported revenue for that month was circa 522 billion Naira when oil was circa $50 and a 40% yam eater was in charge and 390 billion Naira when oil was circa $50 per barrel and a non-yam eater was in charge. Notice also that my post had cited non-oil revenue which is largely unaffected by the oil price.

If GEJ's government ate 40% of the yam, the only reason revenue would continue to be lacklustre now that a non-yam eater is in charge is if yam eating is continuing in earnest. The more probable scenario is that, like the claim that Buhari stole $2bn as NNPC boss, the scale of yam eating is exaggerated for political effect. Witness how you made a statement which you believed to be a fact - that Dasuki alone pocketed $2.1bn which is N420bn at the official rate. Have you asked why he's being charged for a small fraction of the amount you "know" he stole? I have not taken time to address your claim that 40% of our budget was stolen in the GEJ era as it is frankly so absurd that it is not worth the time refuting.



If the lack of improved revenue collection is because "change/transformation" would take time, that point has no place in a debate about public finance in the coming year since if revenue has not improved now it certainly is not going to do so, at least sufficiently, to ward off expanding the debt load significantly in 2016 which is the original point I made. This has been somewhat conceded by the government in its projected borrowing estimate.



I find risible the use of APC bromides of change and transformation and rather feeble exculpatory claims that things getting worse for Nigerians is an indication of transformation. Such a claim requires an incredible leap of faith as it based on hope rather than history. I say this because the President did not distinguish himself in previous roles as PTF boss (where his underlings misappropriated 25bn Naira, a lot of money in those days), as military president (where Buharisms wrecked havoc on the economy as alluded to in this article -http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-election-analysis-idUSKBN0MS4T920150401) and as oil minister/NNPC Chairman. This echoes my query to those who in 2010/11 littered Nairaland shouting Fresh Air! in support of GEJ -what in the new president's past history demonstrates competence which imbues you with such confidence in his abilities for such an intellectually tasking role as being president?

Further, there is a glaring absurdity to the claim that pain-inducing uncertainty is the logical consequence of Buhari's awesome transformation. As if to say, that the deterioration in the economy and the flight of foreign capital is evidence that Buhari is working. In reality, uncertainty is the result of policy ineptitude, i.e., it's not just the inexcusable lack or delay in setting up a clear policy framework, it's that policies when announced are economically illiterate. Witness the declaration by the president that the Naira would not be devalued reinforcing the CBN's hamfisted attempt to maintain a fixed peg or the rather odd attempt to effectively extort money from foreign investors like MTN.

You have to also remember that financial markets are a forward discount mechanism, they reflect investors present assessment of future economic prospects. If you believe today that Buhari is embarking on a transformative path that will improve Nigeria significantly, you will invest today not adopt a wait and see attitude. There is, at the very least, a lack of supporting evidence by any objective criteria for the claim that we are witnessing benign transformation.



It's funny that as the government has justified the 2016 borrowing on the basis that debt-GDP ratio is very low and, therefore, sustainable. In other words, they are operating on the basis that GEJ's economic data is accurate. I view data/info from GEJ's era suspiciously and the present governments wholsesale adoption of such data confirms my prediction of "more of the same."

As far as criticising the government causing it distraction, maybe the government should lock up its critics a la the first Buhari government. A Nigerian government certainly should not be put in a position where it is exposed to too much criticism.

In summary, Nigeria, like a lot of African countries, has been endowed with utterly incompetent leaders from the sectionalist Balewa to the brain-dead GEJ. There is nothing in Buhari's past history or policy leanings that convinces me that this time is different. At best, we might see a reduction in corruption but this is more likely to be offset by the deleterious effects of economic illiteracy. I have made this point several times - bad policies can cause more economic loss than all the Maduekes and Dasukis put together. When you insist on spending 1 trillion Naira per year subsidising fuel consumption, on fixing exchange rates and on doing fiscal stimulus in a high-inflation macro-environment, this can prove far more damaging than any attempts by an individual to change a nation's way of life for the better. It is for this reason that I suspect that the FG will have to scale back its 2016 borrowing if it wants to keep Nigeria on a fiscal sustainable path. We may have a good rally in oil prices in which case much of this is moot but that is a gamble the FG should not be making. As we go into the new year with many federal health workers yet to be paid their November salary and news of delays in paying federal workers, our judgement of our leaders should be grounded in empiricism borne out of verifiable facts and not blind faith in politicians supplemented by tendentious bromides like transformation and change.

PS: Wasn't transformation the buzz word of the GEJ administration?

omohayek:
As ever, you display in your analysis an impressive level of insight into the Nigerian political scene. Buhari's economic illiteracy is something I have been harping on here, and as you say, the real theme in the change of government is continuity of incompetence, rather than any sort of "change" for the better.

4Play:
I don't thnk the mention function works very well: I will make some rebuttal points on this matter but I don't think the premise of my original post is disputable now that the budget has been officially presented.

Firstly, I do not share your optimism about the new government as it is an optimism that has a tenuous link with reality. What is conspicuous by its absence in your posts, in a debate about public finance by the way, is recourse to data. I said in a post about a month ago that the easiest prediction to make in the social sciences is "more of the same." Buhari's government would prove to be inept just as every previous Nigerian government since independence. I would explicate more on this later but let me deal with some of the points you raised:

4Play:

Except that this point has already been factored in in my comment. You only need to look at my post that you quoted to see that I made reference to February 2015 data and compared this with September 2015 data. I did this primarily because February 2015 revenue was derived from a time oil prices were circa $50 per barrel. For the February 2015 report link: - From the September 2015 report link: . In summary, reported revenue for that month was circa 522 billion Naira when oil was circa $50 and a 40% yam eater was in charge and 390 billion Naira when oil was circa $50 per barrel and a non-yam eater was in charge. Notice also that my post had cited non-oil revenue which is largely unaffected by the oil price.

If GEJ's government ate 40% of the yam, the only reason revenue would continue to be lacklustre now that a non-yam eater is in charge is if yam eating is continuing in earnest.

4Play:

The more probable scenario is that, like the claim that Buhari stole $2bn as NNPC boss, the scale of yam eating is exaggerated for political effect. Witness how you made a statement which you believed to be a fact - that Dasuki alone pocketed $2.1bn which is N420bn at the official rate. Have you asked why he's being charged for a small fraction of the amount you "know" he stole?

4Play:

I have not taken time to address your claim that 40% of our budget was stolen in the GEJ era as it is frankly so absurd that it is not worth the time refuting.

4Play:

If the lack of improved revenue collection is because "change/transformation" would take time, that point has no place in a debate about public finance in the coming year since if revenue has not improved now it certainly is not going to do so, at least sufficiently, to ward off expanding the debt load significantly in 2016 which is the original point I made. This has been somewhat conceded by the government in its projected borrowing estimate.

4Play:

I find risible the use of APC bromides of change and transformation and rather feeble exculpatory claims that things getting worse for Nigerians is an indication of transformation. Such a claim requires an incredible leap of faith as it based on hope rather than history. I say this because the President did not distinguish himself in previous roles as PTF boss (where his underlings misappropriated 25bn Naira, a lot of money in those days), as military president (where Buharisms wrecked havoc on the economy as alluded to in this article -http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-election-analysis-idUSKBN0MS4T920150401) and as oil minister/NNPC Chairman. This echoes my query to those who in 2010/11 littered Nairaland shouting Fresh Air! in support of GEJ -what in the new president's past history demonstrates competence which imbues you with such confidence in his abilities for such an intellectually tasking role as being president?

Further, there is a glaring absurdity to the claim that pain-inducing uncertainty is the logical consequence of Buhari's awesome transformation. As if to say, that the deterioration in the economy and the flight of foreign capital is evidence that Buhari is working. In reality, uncertainty is the result of policy ineptitude, i.e., it's not just the inexcusable lack or delay in setting up a clear policy framework, it's that policies when announced are economically illiterate. Witness the declaration by the president that the Naira would not be devalued reinforcing the CBN's hamfisted attempt to maintain a fixed peg or the rather odd attempt to effectively extort money from foreign investors like MTN.

You have to also remember that financial markets are a forward discount mechanism, they reflect investors present assessment of future economic prospects. If you believe today that Buhari is embarking on a transformative path that will improve Nigeria significantly, you will invest today not adopt a wait and see attitude. There is, at the very least, a lack of supporting evidence by any objective criteria for the claim that we are witnessing benign transformation.

4Play:

It's funny that as the government has justified the 2016 borrowing on the basis that debt-GDP ratio is very low and, therefore, sustainable. In other words, they are operating on the basis that GEJ's economic data is accurate. I view data/info from GEJ's era suspiciously and the present governments wholsesale adoption of such data confirms my prediction of "more of the same."

4Play:

As far as criticising the government causing it distraction, maybe the government should lock up its critics a la the first Buhari government. A Nigerian government certainly should not be put in a position where it is exposed to too much criticism.

4Play:

In summary, Nigeria, like a lot of African countries, has been endowed with utterly incompetent leaders from the sectionalist Balewa to the brain-dead GEJ. There is nothing in Buhari's past history or policy leanings that convinces me that this time is different. At best, we might see a reduction in corruption but this is more likely to be offset by the deleterious effects of economic illiteracy. I have made this point several times - bad policies can cause more economic loss than all the Maduekes and Dasukis put together. When you insist on spending 1 trillion Naira per year subsidising fuel consumption, on fixing exchange rates and on doing fiscal stimulus in a high-inflation macro-environment, this can prove far more damaging than any attempts by an individual to change a nation's way of life for the better. It is for this reason that I suspect that the FG will have to scale back its 2016 borrowing if it wants to keep Nigeria on a fiscal sustainable path. We may have a good rally in oil prices in which case much of this is moot but that is a gamble the FG should not be making. As we go into the new year with many federal health workers yet to be paid their November salary and news of delays in paying federal workers, our judgement of our leaders should be grounded in empiricism borne out of verifiable facts and not blind faith in politicians supplemented by tendentious bromides like transformation and change.

PS: Wasn't transformation the buzz word of the GEJ administration?

Unfortunately, I disagree.

I don't think you can take refuge in recourse to historical data to debate about governance between 2 different governments (one in the future) with different policies and intent.

I also fundamentally disagree with your social sciences axiom. Governments are different. Even in the UK, conservatives would be different from labour. In the US, republicans are different from democrats. The most useless democratic government we have had is a competition between Jonaadaft and Shagari, Buhari would struggle to beat that even if he banged his head and something changed and he tried.

Of course yam-eating would be continuing in earnest until people see the consequences of it. You think people would just wake up and give up their lifestyles and "investment" in corruption without a fight?

First of all, I don't think if $2.1bn is missing then Dasuki alone would have pocketed it all. Even if I said that, you should not be pedantic to the level you take it literally. If you understand the way corruption works, there will be others taking a cut from it, Dasuki is just the central figure in the loot.

Secondly, the fact he is being charged with only a fraction NOW is by no means evidence that $2.1bn is an exaggeration. They reported to have found $2.1bn that is unaccounted for or illegal spending overall. You should consider he is being charged for a fraction of the loot because those are the easy to trace ones they have found. You have absolutely no clue the list of other charges that would come and the combined figure it would come to. You are exhibiting the same quick to and early judgement one sees with wailing wailers here. The only difference is that I suspect yours is sincere and with good intentions.

First of all, let me tell you about my experience in a country with low corruption and high acountability. I was working in an advisory capacity to a UK government department and during a meeting a Director told me that they attribute about 6% of their procurements to corrupt practices. If a country like the UK can attribute as much as 6% to corruption, what would you think a country soiled and soaked in corruption like Nigeria during a Yam Festival being run by a cretin would be? You really think 40% is absurd? O lo si gym ni to ma ni abs? (It went to the gym to get the abs?)

You cannot say if revenue has not improved in 6 months, then it "certainly" will not improve in 12 months or 1 year. That is a logical fallacy! Even in any calculations being done by a government, they would have a base case plus optimistic and pessimistic cases. This is the norm when trying to forecast the future. The base case is what is presented.

You have not factored in what will change, what is being changed and any lagging factor of what is being done recently in that argument. Especially when what was being done before was not anywhere near mediocre, talkless of best practice. That is like saying a fat man that can run 100m in 28s and then starts going to the gym for 2 hours (4 days a week) but is still adjusting to his new diet in the first 6 months will not run 100m faster 1 year than his 26.89s dash after. After 1 year, he will CERTAINLY still be only to run 100m in 24-28s.

Be careful how certain you are or proclaim when you are making assumptions, ESPECIALLY about future events.Of course when one is talking about the FUTURE actions of a 2nd party, and not ones-self, a major part of one's position is a level of faith. So, yes, there is a leap of faith in my position. You are perfectly entitled to your level of pessimism. But I don't share that. My faith lies in my inside knowledge of how badly run the country has been run during the rise festival and my belief in the intent of Buhari as well as his ministerial appointments which brims with some competent individuals.

As for your arguments about individual actions by Buhari, to be clear, I don't agree with all his policies (nor his appointments) but that should not be mixed up with the realities of emotional phases of complex transformation which I am aware of and is academically accepted.

As for the highlighted in red, my advice to you is refrain from using such arguments. It is in the category of your "certainty" above.
Is there even enough data for investors to engage in forward discount mechanism in Nigeria? How will they invest when there is even no policy and no ministers?

I can't disagree with this. But If you were in their position, what will you do? You need to get a budget out in 6 months and make decisions on policies soon, what will you do? Start gathering data that might take you 2 years to get good ones? Or go with the inadequate data at hand to make some kind of decision for now and focus on data improvement in the future?

Why do you think they need to lock up their critics?

This man will turn out to be the worst President we've had since Shagari. Because he's taken over in extra-ordinary circumstances, his power base is not strong which means he feels he needs to bribe his way to gain loyalty.

4Play:
I didn't respond to this earlier due to lack of time but I have to say much of your comments add no substantive value to the debate.



This is a debate prompted by my claim that the 2016 budget may be fueled by debt -a claim already admitted by the politicians you are desperately defending. A debate about a budget hinges on data not a recourse to argument by assertion. This is not a debate about philosophy or theory but about facts.

Sticking to argument by assertion simply means that the facts belie your argument but that you don't want to be exposed as a chump.

4Play:

There are usually peripheral differences between Labour and Conservatives and the GOP and the Democrats. You have to be utterly naive or hopelessly partisan to claim that either party represents a great leap in competence and that outcomes will be substantially different under either. If that were the case, the less competent party would effectively be wiped out by the electorate. By the same token, anyone who asserts that a GEJ or a Buhari government is oodles better than the other is expresssing sophomoric judgement.

4Play:

So yam eating today continues in earnest but you still maintain confidence that this government marks a monumental positive change from the previous one? Who is in power today - APC or PDP? Is there any evidence that the anti-corruption fight extends to the former? So, of course yam eating will continue in earnest. Today's yam eater has no need to put up a fight as the government is not actually demonstrating the slightest inclination to tackle corrupt officials under its watch.

4Play:

This is utter hogwash. If it is known that the NSA and accomplices stole $2.1bn then that is sufficient to charge them for the theft. A prosecutor need not know where the money is now, what is sufficient for a charge is to demonstrate that the sums in question were illegally removed which, if they know this is what happened, they would do so. If there is no charge for those sums, it is because they do not know that those sums were stolen or are not serious. In either case, one cannot come on the internet and assert as a matter of fact that a sum was stolen, based on Naija media reports, when evidence that a sum of that magnitude was stolen is not extant.

4Play:

Sagamite, please what is the name of this director who disclosed to you that 6% of a UK government department's budget is lost via corruption?

You seem to extrapolate from your mystical director's claim to the UK as a whole meaning that 6% of the £743bn UK budget, or £44bn is lost via corruption. I cannot even make such an outlandish claim in polite circles without people worrying about my mental health. I can understand if you are talking of a department like DFID and our foreign aid budget but that is because of the recipients of the foreign aid budget and is no reflection of the UK's susceptibility to corruption.

4Play:

Let's go back to your original statement - Mate, Nigeria had a previous budget of about $28bn. Of which (conservatively) at least 40% was being looted.
. This is a shocking display of ignorance. If at least 40% of the FG budget is stolen, it means that Nigeria subsisted on at most $16bn. That the genuine FG spending committments - debt servicing, FG workers who include soldiers and policemen, actual fuel subsidies, e.t.c - is covered by only $16bn. Sagamite, if you actually believe this, this is an absurd display of bloviating ignorance.

This is what irritates me about Nigerians and why these debates are a waste of time. People believe that IBB stole $12.3bn of Gulf War windfall when nothing of that magnitude was generated for the period in question. Fighting corruption does not mean one has to believe or make outlandish claims.

4Play:

You are being gratuitously obtuse. Take the analogy you have given, how the hell does that even rebut my point? Read again, slowly if that helps, the summation of my view: Given present revenue generation, it is unlikely revenue generation in the coming months of 2016 will be high enough to justify the revenue projections made in the 2016 budget. What that means is 2016 is too early for revenues to increase sufficiently as projected. 2016 starts from 1 January 2016. Revenues need to be showing improvement already, not in a year's time, for the revenues projection to make any sense. If it is too early for revenues to increase as you acknowledge, what the flipping hell have you been arguing about all this while?

4Play:

And yet, yam eating continues in earnest and revenue remains as dissapointing as before so your faith is not based on anything concrete. Talking of these competent individuals, does that include Kemi Adeosun who managed your state's finances for 4 years culminating in it requiring a bailout? Did Buhari not have this good intent when he ran PTF and NNPC and was military president? Yet, all previous stints in office were marked by grotesque incompetence.

You are assuming the premise which remains unproven - there is little evidence that Nigeria is experiencing positive transformation.


Do you seriously think that a good defence of Buhari is that he has no policy and was slow to appoint ministers? It is another example of why he is just another inept politician and is a repeat of what he did the last time he was president.

You state there is not enough data for investors to work with, you are somewhat closer to the truth. There is nothing investors can see happening now which will give them confidence that this government marks a paradigm improvement on the previous one. Nobody can accuse the investor community of being wailing wailers. Their actions constitute an objective vote of no-confidence based on what has transpired so far. Only those who are engaging in wishful thinking, who are disingenuous or are operating under some ethnic bias invest much hope on any set of Nigerian politicians without concrete evidence of much improvement.


You cannot announce plans to borrow unprecedented amounts and justify it by reference to data that you claim is bogus. You can't tell lenders to lend you more money whilst maintaining that your financial position is bogus.

The solution is to reduce borrowing drastically until revenues actually improve and until you have reassessed Nigeria's GDP figures. You cannot go on a borrowing spree based on bogus figures from the GEJ era and expect me to accept that this regime and the previous one are not birds of the same feather.
I do not think they need to lock up critics. But if as you state criticism is impeding their work, it may be of assistance if they did that.

Your posts here are a classic illustration of the chump tendency which my profile signature hints at. The original substance of your contention - a refutation of my claim that the 2016 budget requires major debt expansion - has long been lost. You claim it's too early to see substantial revenues improvement but that is effectively my original point, i.e., that the government cannot collect the projected revenues in the 12 months of 2016 given present revenue figures. The government may be able to match those projected revenue figures by 2018 - we will be able to judge closer to the time - but not in 2016.

As for GEJ's regime stealing, conservatively speaking, 40% of the budget that would imply that actual expenditure in the past is circa $16bn at the most. Given that this government has budgeted $30bn and it is an honest and competent government as your faith-based claim posits, we are going to experience the equivalent of a $14bn stimulus.

I have always stated on this forum that Nigeria has 2 main problems - corruption and policy ineptitude. However, the former pales in significance to the latter as you can develop with a corrupt leader a la Park Chung Hee of South Korea and Chiang Kai-Shek of Taiwan but there is no historical example of development with an inept leader. I also think Nigerians have a penchant for exaggeration or mendacity and that this erodes the quality of public debate. This is why Nigerians supported NLC's demands for a minimum wage of 52,000.00 Naira as the impression is created of an abundant fiscal purse which, but for pilfering by the political elite, would be sufficient to provide such goodies. I totally agree that we have some of the most corrupt political leadership but we need to maintain factual accuracy to be able critically evaluate our government and not pluck numbers out of the air.

5 years ago, I used to ask the Fresh air activists why they had such faith in GEJ given his unremarkable record as a public servant and would receive the usual non-sequitur dross. This is what I noted in 2010 post - https://www.nairaland.com/508968/jonathan-blew-away-27-billion#6701023. Buhari is in the same category as he has an emphatic record of utter incompetence which in any civilised setting would have entailed he would hardly be considered for the equivalent of local government chairman. As with GEJ, you do not need 4 years of failure to determine that inept public officials are more likely to provide inept governance.

Sagamite:

Corruption in the West exist but is just in a lower and different format. People give their friends, with less competitive bids or capabilities, contracts. They can give them a contract at the right price but after winning and while delivery is taking place, they support changes that increase the cost. Some give their friends/contact contracts, don't collect money, but then later take a board position where they are paid crazy money.

So stop chatting crap and start being a belieber even if this is not Justin.

Nigeria expects a budget deficit of 3 trillion naira in 2016, which is equivalent to $15 billion up from 2.2 trillion naira, or $11 billion, that had been previously estimated.