This is just a short blurb of some observations. First ... Some links.

http://www.starrfmonline.com/1.8429850 (120 K job losses)

The unending fall in oil prices has resulted in massive job cuts in the oil industry, with Nigeria’s oil and gas companies slashing about 120,000 direct and indirect jobs, the immediate past National Industrial Relations Officer, Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, Hyginus Onuegbu, has disclosed..... (Go and read the link)

http://sunnewsonline.com/new/nigerias-oil-workers-risk-job-loss-over-irans-return-to-crude-market/ (more losses projected when Iran goes online)

http://www.dailytrust.com.ng/news/business/recession-fear-of-job-losses-heightens/113946.html (CBN issues recession warning)

http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/worldBusiness/Nigeria-massive-job-loss-looms-in-banking-sector-377117 (TSA leading to massive job losses/this one is a good one though... Banks have been fleecing the govt)

Those are some of the canaries in the coal mine that lead us to the systemic issue in our polity, low oil price, low foreign reserves, lack of liquidity due to currency controls, currency controls put in place to prop up a falling naira.

We are here again , a failed economic policy of trying to strengthen the naira has brought us to the point of begging OPEC to reduce output so that we are able to sell our oil at an artificially raised price. Hoping we can defend the naira long enough until this raised price occurs. Which it will not since Russia, Iran and Canada (shale and Oil sands) will simply pick up any supply slack given by Saudi Arabia reducing out put.


But worse of all, the currency controls have led to a completely illiquid market with no one able to access forex to buy materials/imports. And even if you go on the black market, the artificially suppressed naira will probably wipe you out since nobody is willing to pay an 80 % increase in cost of finished goods (when this may be the main price!)

Unfortunately this all spells trouble. Some reports indicate a couple of million jobs lost over the past year and are projecting another million jobs. Any economy that bleeds that much in such a short time is clearly looking a recession in the face. This is not about bad news , this is about understanding (in very brief lingo) how we got here.

Now... The Way Back

CBN must abandon the defense of the naira and open the up the market to allow FDI back in, without this organizations cannot access credit to tide them over. Politics be damned, do the right thing.

Get serious about diversifying the economy, this is probably be a pipe dream ... But until we really understand that this is how to get off being a cyclical economy (with our cycles based off the price of oil) Nigerias last big Bull market was off the back of a long uptick in oil price, guess what happens when oil prices go down (the bears come out to play). This is a big question that involves solving the security issues, the power issues, the corruption and ease of business issues (I can be here all day, and I will be).

Every man and his wife go and start a small business, there wont be much jobs , banking is getting hit, so is manufacturing, so is mining. Now is the time to get into small business, small trade, find something to export, arts, crafts, technology, ideas, blogs, entertainment, widgets, small handmade gadgets, make it and sell it on a portal. Lets double down on Nollywood, our arts, sports as a driver of internal revenue.

A viable tax structure , this is last , after diversifying the economy has occurred, tax it to maintain the services created.

Security, Power, Logistics(roads and communications) here are the 3 items that Govt has responsibility over, nothing else. Everything else is in our hands. And if we have an idea to solve those 3 then lets do it!

Winter is coming.

Note that the US is looking to start exporting crude. they are currently one of the biggest producers of crude oil, with Iran coming online and crude coming online from the US the long term outlook for crude is not positive. Look to coal for an example, it will become an extremely low priced commodity.