obailala:
Oh yes that's right, a miracle overturn is not feasible. Without any other 'immediate' source of income, I'm afraid the trend would continue a bit longer till maybe around N350 to a dollar . The CBN may finally even decide to officially devalue the naira massively.

And yeah, nobody is here to blame GEJ for the present problems, GEJ is already a past issue and we should naturally be looking forward. However I personally get annoyed when the issue of the falling naira is mentioned and people immediately swoop into the room raining insults at buhari even when it is clear that the major problem is the oil price which has just fallen to an 11-year low. Now it is okay for Nigerians to call out the government in times like this, but I find it even more annoying that the very people with the loudest voice in this criticism are worshippers of GEJ; a man who happens to be the one who squandered the only lifeline which would have gotten Nigeria out of this mess quickly.

..and yes, contrary to your assertion, this is actually the worst case of oil price fall for Nigeria because there is absolutely no lifeline to wedge it.

1. It is not the worst fall in 11 years. Prices fell from $145 to $32 in 2008.

2. There is a lifeline. The shocker is that PMB has chosen not to use it. So this is not the worst. In addition, the fall in 2008 was accompanied by the global financial crisis and the fall was the sharpest in recent history (between June and December of the same year). The current fall from around $110 to $35 was between August 2014 and November 2015.

-Lord

LordAdam:


1. It is not the worst fall in 11 years. Prices fell from $145 to $32 in 2008.

2. There is a lifeline. The shocker is that PMB has chosen not to use it. So this is not the worst. In addition, the fall in 2008 was accompanied by the global financial crisis and the fall was the sharpest in recent history (between June and December of the same year). The current fall from around $110 to $35 was between August 2014 and November 2015.

-Lord

Just like I said, this one is the worst because there are no saved funds to wedge the effects of the fall. I'm yet to know what this lifeline you talk about is, could it be massive borrowing?

LordAdam:


It is conclusions like this that make people say APC supporters are zombies (sorry if that hurt you).

The nation has been on autopilot, that is why the reserve is still at $29b currently.

In no where did I say, all $29b should be used. There should be controlled borrowing, but not the kind of frivolous borrowing Adeosun is projecting.

Nigeria is still making revenues. PMB should do more to assure that our producing capacity increases back (I'm sure you heard the news that Angola has overtaken us as the largest oil producer in Africa).

Then he should impress on the state governments to pay their workers timely. This will improve current spending rate and keep more businesses open and in extension keep people from losing their jobs.

Then he should steer clear of Capital-intensive projects and focus more on projects that are nearing completion (I don't mean the "we will" shi.t that Fashola is doing).

I'm no economist, but I do know when there is a will there is a way. As I have said repeatedly on the forum, APC has a unique chance to make history in Nigeria. But they are making a mess of their opportunity.

People respect you more when you help in time of difficulty than when you feed them in time of plenty. Inaction is an expensive gamble that might cost this country a lot if it backfires and certainly PMB's and many APC party chieftain political careers if things backfire.

GEJ and PDP did what they could. They were not perfect and they made mistakes. PDP has made apologies time without number and have currently tried to be constructive. Even Nigerians have moved on from that. We are now at a stage where APC has to prove itself, and right now, they have failed woefully.

-Lord

I now one thing PMB does not need to defend the naira like the era of GEJ.that $29bn is the lifeline he has.he loooses it and you will be the first to call for Hus head!
Now do you know how the finance minister Arrived at that "high" $10bn borrowing.Gej was borrowing $5bn to fulfill the fed budget.
I agree that PMB inaction or non participation in economic solutions cost him a little but I still stick to my calculations.
PMB does not have to spend the reserve and yet the success of the economy and its economic solutions are staring in his favour both in the short term and long term.
it will be as if Nigeria was never on oil.
simple

obailala:
I'm glad you also appreciate the fact that looting also happened under Yaradua and OBJ, but the difference is clear from a thousand miles away; there was looting, yet they were able to save massively even though they earned less revenue on the average than GEJ's reign.

Based on what indices exactly did you come to the conclusion that PDP handled the economy better?... You obviously do not know how bad things had degenerated to by the time PDP was handing over to the APC. Please dont tell me you're also in the category of those people who claim that the exchange rate was N198 as at May 29th?... May I inform you that the nation was at ground zero as at the time PDP handed over, APC has just been struggling to prevent the nation from falling off the cliff.

As at the end of the 2Q 2015, the nation's GDP growth rate had fallen to about 2.35% (it even improved against all odds in the 3Q to about 2.8%). Exchange rate was about N251 to a dollar as at May (many didnt know this), it was afterwards the CBN had to start the draconian forex restriction to wedge the fall of the naira. The forex restrictions helped at the initial stages but it no longer seems to be effective any longer. Are you also aware of all the debts left for the present administration (including the fuel subsidies since August last year)?..... Or is it the fact that the FG had to borrow to pay salaries of workers late last year and early this year?.... Please tell me exactly on what basis of comparison did you arrive at the conclusion that the PDP managed the economy better than an APC which is yet to even see an economy?

You are been inaccurate and exaggerating a lot. Nigeria was not at ground zero when PDP handed over. If it was so then Nigeria is currently at minus digits now. The amount of job loss, owed salaries, capital flight, and dwindling business is monumental. These are the indices I am using.

Why GEJ did not save a lot is because it takes money to drive an economy. Nigeria was running at an average of 6 percent growth rate and we are very close to achieving our goal of being among the top 20 by 2020 (tell me Nigeria's economic ranking currently compared to 2010?).

About the debt. Everybody owes, and it is why economics is not arithmetic. You need sound policies. You don't just pay those who owe you because there is money available. There are multiple needs for the money.

The GEJ administration has been averse to the idea of subsidy. We also know that the marketers are ingenuous. So you can understand that when prices started falling in August 2014, the government knew that we had more pressing challenges than paying a bunch of hapless businessmen with disturbing intentions. The GEJ government should be lauded for that call.

Also, the current government would still borrow to pay salaries so I fail to see your logic about GEJ borrowing to pay salaries.

Moreover, I will be fair to not judge PMB by 6 months of ruling. So I reserve my verdict.

My gripes are:
1. Do not blame oil prices and GEJ's government.
2. Stop being inactive. Do something.

-Lord

imagine sitting on top of solutions to your national economic bills and you are wasting time thinking of how to borrow or spend your savings!
PMB will cut down his national dollar pressure by 50% and still create employment!
ena go pay my consultancy fee oooo!

obailala:
Just like I said, this one is the worst because there are no saved funds to wedge the effects of the fall. I'm yet to know what this lifeline you talk about is, could it be massive borrowing?

It's either that you aren't reading my comments or you are feigning ignorance.

I am no economist, so I do not claim to know the answer. However, you would expect that a man who had been vying to the top spot for 12 years would have a blueprint. From the looks of things, he doesn't. And that is worrying.

There are enough funds. There is still revenue. The Nigerian economy is more diversified now than it was in 2008. We have a decent debt profile so we can borrow modestly. And we have a government that claims to be more accountable.

We have the raw materials, the only thing that is missing is enlightened action from PMB.

The excuse of the savings not been enough is lame.

-Lord

and the solution is...........

baralatie:

I now one thing PMB does not need to defend the naira like the era of GEJ.that $29bn is the lifeline he has.he loooses it and you will be the first to call for Hus head!
Now do you know how the finance minister Arrived at that "high" $10bn borrowing.Gej was borrowing $5bn to fulfill the fed budget.
I agree that PMB inaction or non participation in economic solutions cost him a little but I still stick to my calculations.
PMB does not have to spend the reserve and yet the success of the economy and its economic solutions are staring in his favour both in the short term and long term.
it will be as if Nigeria was never on oil.
simple

1. There is no way a man like PMB and his economic team will lose $29b without anything happening, if he adopts a calculated course of action. If you think so, then you own Nigerians an apology for voting PMB, because PMB was not elected to warm the seat, he was elected to take tough decisions and get Nigeria working against significant odds.

2. GEJ was borrowing to push Nigeria's growth. PMB is borrowing to keep Nigeria afloat.

He should act. If he is not acting, there should be viable explanations why. Fighting corruption does not count as a viable explanation. Neither does blaming the past administration or oil price fall.

-Lord

baralatie:

and the solution is...........

Sound economic policies by PMB.

-Lord

LordAdam:


1. There is no way a man like PMB and his economic team will lose $29b without anything happening, if he adopts a calculated course of action. If you think so, then you own Nigerians an apology for voting PMB, because PMB was not elected to warm the seat, he was elected to take tough decisions and get Nigeria working against significant odds.

2. GEJ was borrowing to push Nigeria's growth. PMB is borrowing to keep Nigeria afloat.

He should act. If he is not acting, there should be viable explanations why. Fighting corruption does not count as a viable explanation. Neither does blaming the past administration or oil price fall.

-Lord

trust me!nothing should happen to that $29bn!

the solution is somewhere else and not crude oil.in fact if Pmb had followed up by now he would be the envy of america.

I love you guys all meehnn. These are the type of ppl I like to spend my time with. You all are intelligent



I am not in support of blaming GEJ for any downfall in the economy.


PDP are corrupt. Fine but they are better in managing a corrupt economy.

I am in support of giving PMB more time.

But I don't think he knows what to do. The past PDP governments have Tried their best. Let's see the new APC's best.


We are waiting PMB


Certified Economist

LordAdam:


It's either that you aren't reading my comments or you are feigning ignorance.

I am no economist, so I do not claim to know the answer. However, you would expect that a man who had been vying to the top spot for 12 years would have a blueprint. From the looks of things, he doesn't. And that is worrying.

There are enough funds. There is still revenue. The Nigerian economy is more diversified now than it was in 2008. We have a decent debt profile so we can borrow modestly. And we have a government that claims to be more accountable.

We have the raw materials, the only thing that is missing is enlightened action from PMB.

The excuse of the savings not been enough is lame.

-Lord

Sorry, the excuse of not having savings is NOT lame. As a matter of fact, it is a very big problem which can even hinder your ability to borrow. About the man vying for a position for 12 years, that does not necessarily mean he has a holy grail to turn around a 'quarter to the grave' economy within months; besides, he wasn't prepared to meet a virtually empty treasury and a rock-bottom national income due to oil prices. Fixing the dead economy he met will take time, let's stop being unreasonable with our expectations.

Regarding a more diversified Nigerian economy now as compared to 2008, I really dont know about that, maybe you can point out examples. That is not to say Nigeria doesn't have the potentials to create wealth through other avenues, but you need to understand that every other effort will take time; be it agriculture or harnessing of solid minerals or even manufacturing, it is bound to take some good time and just an 'intention' to diversify is not enough to checkmate the current freefall of the naira.

obailala:
[b]Oh dear, ignorant people keep shouting economic blueprint as if an economic blueprint can perform a miracle and turn fortunes around instantly even with the prevalent rock-bottom oil prices?...

Funny thing is that it is mostly PDP agents and PDP supporters that have been shouting 'economic blueprint,' an economic blueprint which they could not implement in 16 years, an economic blueprint they could not apply in the last 5 years of plenty when oil prices where averaging $100 per barrel. The moment oil prices dropped in November 2014, the first thing the PDP did was to officially devalue the naira. Oil prices fell to ~$65 per barrel as at May 2015 when PDP was still in charge yet the exchange rate at the parallel market as at May 29th was in the range of N251 to $1; the almighty PDP magicians could not apply this wonderful economic blueprint.

Now they keep shouting that this administration is not applying 'economic blueprint' to magically turn the slumping Naira instantly when oil prices have just dropped to an 11-year low of below $35.

For anyone that cares to know, there is absolutely nothing that can be done to stop the continuous nosedive of the Naira in the short term, oil prices are rock bottom and Nigeria hardly has any other means of foreign exchange earnings. Enough of this political baseless rants about 'economic blueprint.'[/b]

Shame on you!

Coolgent:


Shame on you!

Huh? Where is this from?

Anyway, I just read through that thread from 7 years ago and there is absolutely nothing I wrote in there which was wrong; every single point I made in there was a hard fact that can still be defended with verifiable figures and publicly available data.

I understand though that it would take a fairly intelligent person to comprehend these things, so it doesnt come as a surprise if anyone finds it too complex to understand. The joke is acrually on you @Coolgent