MIMIKO:
THE LEGITIMACY OF LOSS :
sincerely hope the Vuvuzellas of the Governor of Ondo State, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko, won’t say I have been paid to do this. I also do not intend to bore you with academic jargons In political science.Legitimacy is the popular acceptance of an authority, usually a governing law or a régime. Whereas "authority" denotes a specific position in an established government, the term "legitimacy" denotes a system of government — wherein "government" denotes "sphere of influence".Political legitimacy is considered a basic condition for governing, without which, a government will suffer legislative deadlock(s) and collapse. In political systems where this is not the case, unpopular régimes survive because they are considered legitimate by a small, influential élite.The political legitimacy of a ruler and government was derived from the Mandate of Heaven, and unjust rulers who lost said mandate therefore lost the right to rule the people.In moral philosophy, the term "legitimacy" is often positively interpreted as the normative status conferred by a governed people upon their governors' institutions, offices, and actions, based upon the belief that their government's actions are appropriate uses of power by a legally constituted government.Political legitimacy derives from popular explicit and implicit consent of the governed:"The argument of the [Second] Treatise is that the government is not legitimate unless it is carried on with the consent of the governed. "Legitimacy is the foundation of such governmental power as is exercised, both with a consciousness on the government's part that it has a right to govern, and with some recognition by the governed of that right. Charismatic legitimacy derives from the ideas and personal charisma of the leader, a person whose authoritative persona charms and psychologically dominates the people of the society to agreement with the government's regime and rule. A charismatic government usually features weak political and administrative institutions, because they derive authority from the personality of the leader, and usually disappear without the leader in power. However, if the charismatic leader has a SUCCESSOR,a government derived from charismatic legitimacy might continue.The word successor is the key point of this writing as I do not intend to bore with academic terminologies.For a right and fair thinker in Ondo State, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko or say ‘Iroko” as WE all call him has lost it on all fronts and sides. He has failed as a leader by whatever measure. Charisma,Persona, moral or influence.This was a governor that rode on the popular goodwill of the people and men went all out at the detriment of their homes, career, family and damn all consequences to align and be identified with. I know because I was a part.There are two types of general elections. The first are those in which the results are clear in advance, such as Mimiko enjoyed in 2012. The second are those in which the outcome remains in the balance until very late, like the just concluded Presidential election of 2015. The next election will be far closer to the first kind than the second.Ten months out from 2016, one fact is already evident: MIMIKO will not win an overall majority and by that I mean who ever he and his party tips to succeed him. There are many reasons why 2016 elections will be a mere staging-post (and an uneventful one in electoral terms) on a journey towards, in all likelihood,an APC led government in Ondo State. The first of these apocalyptic horsemen is the PDP’s plight among ethnic minority voters. That it is probably the least significant, is no comfort. On 19 June 1815, after the battle of Waterloo, the Duke of Wellington declared that ‘nothing except a battle lost can be half as melancholy as a battle won’. Two hundred years later, Olusegun Mimiko might feel the same way as they sit in Alagbaka. Any elation over victory by the end of this year for him will be quickly overshadowed by the thought of troubles to come — in all likelihood insurmountable troubles for either man.Everyone has known for years when this election will take place, with the result that the campaigns starting gun has been fired even earlier than usual. Mimiko is busy prophesying continuity, basking in the lost fame of 2012; while the ‘Original PDP' is warning that the party won’t survive in its current form if it has to be the Gbasibe ways. As Mimiko recently brandishes appointments like oranges given to little kids in the period of dryness, it is an evidence of the spur on by a fear of failure. Defeat for either of them (Mimiko or the PDP) would almost certainly mark the end of their political career. Mimiko’s political life would be over after this election except by a dint of luck and divine influence. He would be e the man who couldn’t deliver his state to his party in an election despite wit and resources available to him. His modernisation programme would be dismissed as an out right failure and his friends and allies would be forced out of positions of influence in Ondo State.Though losing would be hard for hyper-competitive Mimiko, it might be even harder to bear for his band wagon. He would have to face up to the fact that he ruptured his relationship with his brothers’ and associates for an unsuccessful stint as leader of the opposition. (As chairman PDP governors forum)But if defeat would be dire for the man, winning would not be much better.Whoever ends up in Alagbaka by the February of 2017 will be the weakest governor of Ondo State in living memory except economy improves or some miracles happens,not by the extent of needless debt the state has been thrown into. They will be forced to implement the most difficult half of the austerity programme with a slim to non existent parliamentary majority at a time when the house of Assembly will be PDP and the Government a different party.The next few months will be the most dramatic in political memory. PDP and the APC will attempt to break the mould of Mimiko politics. Ondo State ……… Ibi Giga laaye Wa.


AYODEJI OLOGUN, A political analyst, public speaker and broadcast journalist writes from Akure.