NavierStokes:


You miss the point brother, successive administrations from independence till date must share the blame.

bluaero:


You missed out "snake"

PresVA:
345# to 1$ ... God help us..


Meanyl, my brothers wey dey places like USA go dey build better house for village now/dey do investments.. Imagine your money being worth more than double of what it was before.

Topeakintola:


Agreed

However, after the return to democratic governance in 1999, there was hope that things will change

And remember that under GEJ, oil prices rose to +$100 bp. It was as high as $157 in November 2014

All squandered

Topeakintola:


Larger population than Russia?

Nigeria is only reaping the consequences of lavish and irresponsible public spending under successive PDP administrations.

The bulk of the blame lays at the feet of Don Fortunato who mismanaged the country's finances to fund a phantom second term ambition

NavierStokes:


First Oil prices started dropping in june 2014 and couldnt have been up to $157. In fact never gotten to that amount (peaked $145.85). Secondly we shouldn't be talking about oil prices and GEJ's tenure. Google "global gdp and oil price", and you will realize that both graphs have exactly the same trend from point to point. This arbitrarily put means a babangida selling oil prices for $15/bbl would have purchased Mercedes benz cars at 100000naira compared to a GEJ selling oil at $100/bbl and buying same mercedes benz cars at 15million naira.

Nichobabe:
Nice write up and true

Nigeria needs to be prepared always for the raining days

NavierStokes:


First Oil prices started dropping in june 2014 and couldnt have been up to $157. In fact never gotten to that amount (peaked $145.85). Secondly we shouldn't be talking about oil prices and GEJ's tenure. Google "global gdp and oil price", and you will realize that both graphs have exactly the same trend from point to point. This arbitrarily put means a babangida selling oil prices for $15/bbl would have purchased Mercedes benz cars at 100000naira compared to a GEJ selling oil at $100/bbl and buying same mercedes benz cars at 15million naira.

Obj started of on a budget of about billion and based on his benchmark price of crude which fottunately witnessed a price increase, could afford to save in the eca or increase reserves. GEJ had budgets of ober 4 trillion plus leakages that hadn't been plugged by successive administrations this oul was not even enough to fund his budget. Take a lool at minimum wages he paid, or corpers allowances plus crude theft then consider the budget of 2016 predicated on 38$/bbl.


If we do a rough maths, $38/bbl makes a contribution of 860billion to the 2016 budget. Scale up both figures by 3 and what do you have, a $114/bbl benchmark (unrealistic) would have contributed a value of 2.58trillion on a budget of over 4 trillion. So do you see that even using all the oil sales proceeds to fund his budget would have still left him with a huge deficit.
Ps: (this Illustration is just an overtly simplistic calculation).

NavierStokes:


First Oil prices started dropping in june 2014 and couldnt have been up to $157. In fact never gotten to that amount (peaked $145.85). Secondly we shouldn't be talking about oil prices and GEJ's tenure. Google "global gdp and oil price", and you will realize that both graphs have exactly the same trend from point to point. This arbitrarily put means a babangida selling oil prices for $15/bbl would have purchased Mercedes benz cars at 100000naira compared to a GEJ selling oil at $100/bbl and buying same mercedes benz cars at 15million naira.

Obj started of on a budget of about billion and based on his benchmark price of crude which fottunately witnessed a price increase, could afford to save in the eca or increase reserves. GEJ had budgets of ober 4 trillion plus leakages that hadn't been plugged by successive administrations this oul was not even enough to fund his budget. Take a lool at minimum wages he paid, or corpers allowances plus crude theft then consider the budget of 2016 predicated on 38$/bbl.


If we do a rough maths, $38/bbl makes a contribution of 860billion to the 2016 budget. Scale up both figures by 3 and what do you have, a $114/bbl benchmark (unrealistic) would have contributed a value of 2.58trillion on a budget of over 4 trillion. So do you see that even using all the oil sales proceeds to fund his budget would have still left him with a huge deficit.
Ps: (this Illustration is just an overtly simplistic calculation).

sarutobie:

So after reading the Op you still couldn't get wisdom? This was all you could get from the entire post? Kai

Topeakintola:


Good analysis, however, after you have identified the trend/problem, it will be nice for you to proffer solutions as well.

I think Nigeria's problem is based on the size of government which leads to high recurrent expenditure. (im not sure, I think it forms over half of total expenditure)= unsustainable

If these successive administrations streamlined size of the government, then maybe it would have freed more funds for capital projects . This would have been more beneficial in the long run

woodcook:


If only you could save this for people that really deserved reading it. Wait until the vultures land on this thread and turn your logic upside down. They are really good at it, that I can attest to.

Topeakintola:


Good analysis, however, after you have identified the trend/problem, it will be nice for you to proffer solutions as well.

I think Nigeria's problem is based on the size of government which leads to high recurrent expenditure. (im not sure, I think it forms over half of total expenditure)= unsustainable

If these successive administrations streamlined size of the government, then maybe it would have freed more funds for capital projects . This would have been more beneficial in the long run

bluaero:
Now $1 to N345.

Buhari Sef ...what did we ever do to deserve this dullard!

bluaero:
Now $1 to N345.

Buhari Sef ...what did we ever do to deserve this dullard!

NavierStokes:


Godbless you brother, now we are in sync. I had spent the past few weeks reading the book by Martin Meredith: The state of Africa: a history of the continent since independence. There you will find out why virtually ever african country failed, the root cause i did identify was the overbloated and inefficient civil service. These were overbloated because the governments or ruling parties saw it as a means of patronage, where they compensate their followers and subjects with apoointments to score political points. Imagine cases of offices with several employed typists but only one functional typewriter etc.

Lets be honest If the government is a privately owned organization, will we have the type and quality of workforce we see today, or will service delivery and output be as seen today? Hell no.

Reduce the size of the recurrent expenditure, create an enabling environment so the bulk of those people can be on the private sector, focus on building infrastructure and watch the entrepreneurial spirit spring up among the citizens.

This also translates into increased output and ultimately a stronger value of the currency.

NavierStokes:


First Oil prices started dropping in june 2014 and couldnt have been up to $157. In fact never gotten to that amount (peaked $145.85). Secondly we shouldn't be talking about oil prices and GEJ's tenure. Google "global gdp and oil price", and you will realize that both graphs have exactly the same trend from point to point. This arbitrarily put means a babangida selling oil prices for $15/bbl would have purchased Mercedes benz cars at 100000naira compared to a GEJ selling oil at $100/bbl and buying same mercedes benz cars at 15million naira.

Obj started of on a budget of about billion and based on his benchmark price of crude which fottunately witnessed a price increase, could afford to save in the eca or increase reserves. GEJ had budgets of ober 4 trillion plus leakages that hadn't been plugged by successive administrations this oul was not even enough to fund his budget. Take a lool at minimum wages he paid, or corpers allowances plus crude theft then consider the budget of 2016 predicated on 38$/bbl.


If we do a rough maths, $38/bbl makes a contribution of 860billion to the 2016 budget. Scale up both figures by 3 and what do you have, a $114/bbl benchmark (unrealistic) would have contributed a value of 2.58trillion on a budget of over 4 trillion. So do you see that even using all the oil sales proceeds to fund his budget would have still left him with a huge deficit.
Ps: (this Illustration is just an overtly simplistic calculation).