Nigeria’s economic growth data confirmed what the Nigerian government and its backers have been loath to admit: that currency controls are hurting the economy and slowing it down.

Growth in Africa’s biggest economy and oil exporter slowed to 2.8 percent last year, the weakest level since the advent of civil rule in 1999 and down from 6.2 percent recorded in 2014.

Industrial output contracted 2.2 percent last year, compared with expansion of 6.8 percent in 2014.

Tumbling oil prices have battered Nigeria, a country that relied on crude for two-thirds of government revenue but government inertia and its controversial policies have helped to inflict woes on the economy. Capital controls and restrictions on currency trading imposed backed by President Muhammadu Buhari have made matters worse. Rather than benefiting manufacturers, as government has claimed, the GDP data show industries such as food and vehicle production continue to suffer.

The figures “confirm widespread fears of a slowdown, possibly even a recession,” Alan Cameron, an economist at Exotix Partners LLP in London, said in an e-mailed note. “The lack of investment and access to imported inputs has hamstrung the corporate sector, and is increasingly being felt by the man on the street.”

Gross domestic product rose 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the statistics office said on Tuesday, down from 2.8 percent in the previous three months and lower than the 2.9 percent median estimate of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The central bank’s measures have effectively pegged the naira at 197 to 199 against the dollar since March last year and hindered the ability of manufacturers to pay foreign suppliers. They’ve also caused investors such as Aberdeen Asset Management Plc and Ashmore Group Plc to sell naira bonds and stocks.

Nigeria’s main stock index has fallen 9.8 percent this year, more than any other bourse in Africa apart from Zimbabwe’s. Forwards prices suggest the naira will drop 31 percent to 288 in a year, while the black market rate is around 320 to the dollar.

Buhari, 73, became the first opposition leader to win power in Nigeria last year, riding on a wave of optimism that he would fix an ailing economy, end an insurgency by Boko Haram in the northeast and combat rampant corruption. While he has scored some successes in fighting the militants and tackling graft, investor confidence in his economic policies or absence of same have waned.

“We see some scope for faster growth, forecasting the economy to expand by 3.8% this year,” David Faulkner, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Johannesburg, said in a note to clients. “However, much will depend on Nigeria’s exchange rate policy, with the current foreign exchange and import restrictions — imposed to stabilize the naira — having a detrimental effect on economic activity and growth.”

Lower oil output and prices contributed to the industry contracting 8.28 percent in the fourth quarter compared with expansion of 1.1 percent in the third quarter, the statistics office said. Growth in the non-oil industry, which accounts for 90 percent of GDP, was little changed at 3.1 percent.

There is little to suggest the economy has improved so far this year, according to Manji Cheto, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London. While the government plans to boost growth with a record $30 billion budget, lawmakers are yet to pass it.

“Growth for the first quarter of this year could be worse because nothing has happened,” Cheto said by phone. “Government hasn’t yet ramped up spending since we don’t have a budget. The performance in this quarter will drag growth down for the rest of the year. It confirms that Buhari’s government has been very slow off the line.”

http://www.financialwatchngr.com/2016/03/10/gdp-confirms-what-nigeria-denies-naira-peg-hurting-economy/

The Nigeria's GDP

Pls God help us in the country our leaders are just bunch of **** who only care about themselves they are busy thinking of marring additional wives while people are busy thinking how to sustain one I would continue to say that the best thing to do with our leaders is to put all of them in a big building and bomb all of them it would reduce some of Nigerian problems

I foresee doom