A conference report titled 'Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future' by a group of experts assembled by the United States National Intelligence Council predicts the possibility of 'outright collapse of Nigeria'!

[I]"While currently Nigeria's leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja. The most important would be a junior officer coup that could destabilize the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a sustained manner.

"If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region. Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of destabilizing entire neighborhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilized. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years—if ever—and not without massive international assistance."[/I]

Source: http://www.cia.gov/nic/confreports_africa_future.html

On the 17th of May 2005, President Obasanjo sent a 7 paragraph reaction titled 'Report of the US Intelligence Council" to be read on the floor of the Senate. Thisday Online provides us with the contents of the President's letter to the Senate:

[I]"As a means of informing ourselves, I hereby forward a copy of the United States National Intelligence Council document on "Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future" for your attention. I am sending this to you not because I am alarmed by the report but because if we know what others think of us and about us, we can prevent what they project for us.

"As a person who has participated in similar so-called "expert group" on issues, situations and regions, I know that the predictions and projections can be wide off the mark because both politics and economics cannot be absolutely predicted and their dynamics can fool the greatest and best expert. But it is important for us to know that we are being rated low, not because of what is happening to us from outside but because of what we do to, for and by ourselves internally.

"I believe that it is only God and ourselves that can map our present and future. No outsider can do that accurately for us. I know that some people glibly talk of the probability of Nigeria as a failed State. I believe that they are living in the past and incapable of noticing and appreciating the positive strides we are making on all fronts and the determination of the Nigerian people to join hands to consolidate democracy and promote sustainable growth and development.

"Because they are stuck to old ideas and dreams as well as stereotypes about us and our capabilities, they cannot see the New Nigeria that we are building collectively as we move beyond the past but allowing the past and present to strengthen and sustain our future.

"Similar experts at the beginning of the second half of the 20th Century predicted worse scenarios for South East Asia. In fact, at the dawn of independence in Africa, Africa's chances were rated much better than that of South East Asia, but because they pulled themselves together, the predictions and projections about them have been proven false. In the case of Africa, the reverse has been true as the early favourable predictions and projections for the continent have remained largely unattained.

"If our detractors cannot see our far-reaching reforms, our fight against waste and corruption, the new culture of prudence and service delivery that is gradually emerging, the various political reforms including the on-going National Political Reform Conference as well as the sacrifices our people are making to ensure economic progress and democratic consolidation as indicators of progress and a radical departure from the past, then they must have some dubious or diabolical benchmarks for measuring efforts at ensuring oneness, unity, stability, indivisibility, prosperity, development and growth of our dear country.

"Our performance in the last three years has, in my view, been very good just as our performance in ensuring stability, peace, economic progress and good governance in West Africa and, indeed, the whole of Africa.

"I believe that we can and should disprove the modern experts of the United States Intelligence Council who are like the prophets of doom and by the Grace of God, for Nigeria in this first decade of the 21st Century, we must be determined to show that we are neither a basket case nor walking on a banana peel.

"I wish you well as you read the report and would very much appreciate your reactions, perspectives and suggestions. For me, it is a challenge and it calls for extra work. We owe that much to our people, to Africa, humanity and to God Almighty, our Creator. May God bless Nigeria and Africa."[/I]

http://thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=18299 (username nairaland, password nairaland).

We need a massive, long-term re-education programme aimed at the masses. The government needs to let people know that we have democracy now and there are alternatives to violence. The various groups that are 'marginalized' need to be assured that their demands can be met without bloodshed.

I mean, I was alarmed to discover that, even as I'm typing this post, there are some people who are clamouring for Biafra. Even with all the reforms in progress, there are those who think their 'only hope' is to break away from Nigeria. Our are so predisposed to violence and tribalism that every disagreement between an hausa man and an ibo or yoruba man in Lagos can cause a riot.

Can the people of Nigeria ([I]the masses[/I]) of Nigeria [I]grow up[/I] fast enough to avert such disaster?

Experts, to quote Colin Powell often "possess more data than judgement." I am definitely not alarmed by such report. They are drafted by people who have little to no knowledge of the real situation in Nigeria. Last year when Dokubo was making some fuzz the international media reported him as if he was some important rebel warlord controlling some break away region. Some even reported it as civil war and blamed it for the increase in fuel price. I laughed.

But I agree with Obasanjo's letter to the Senate, it is instructive to know what others are projecting for us so we can prevent it.

Biafra is a touchy issue but I believe most Igbo elites have distanced themselves from such venture.

What sort of events could lead to a collapse of Nigeria as we know it?

1. Some ethnic (or religious) leader decides that his group has had enough, and decides to start a war using his home territory as a base.

[I]Likelihood of this happening[/I]: Very low. For one thing, as bad as things are for various groups (I single out the Ndoni, Ogoni, Izon and other ethnic groups in the Delta area), I don't think they perceive their misfortune as a deliberate government attempt to victimise and marginalise them. I think it is more a case of general misgovernance that affects everyone rather than one particular group being singled out. Having said this, there are always demagogues who are happy to fan the flames of ethnic strife by claiming their group is being victimised.

Also, I suspect that most would-be ethnic leaders these days are so corrupt that as soon as the government announces some financially rewarding concession towards the leader, that will be the end of the 'rebellion'. See what happened with Dokubo Asari (or is it Asari Dokubo? You never can tell with the way Nigerians switch forename and surname).

2. Some ambitious military officer decides to launch a coup, and this causes divisions amongst the military as some part of it remains loyal to the government.

[I]Likelihood of this happening[/I]: Low. I think the government has a good handle on military intelligence, and I also think that it is keeping the officer cadre of the military relatively happy.

Also, I think that unlike the olden days when unreliable telecoms and near total government control of the electronic media made it easy to stage coups, it will be much more difficult to rely on simply seizing a single radio station and playing martial music for a coup to succeed.

And lastly, even though things are bad, I still think that whoever seizes power needs a really compelling reason to overthrow the government if his government is to have any kind of credibility, especially because the trend these days (even in Africa) is for democratic governments, and most coups result either in a kind of reversal (Equatorial Guinea, Guinea Bissau) or the coup leader makes some sort of plan to return to democratic rule soon after.

3. Some junior officers stage a mutiny over poor conditions, which escalates into a full blown rebellion that some middle ranking officer takes command of.

[I]Likelihood of this happening[/I]: Low-medium. For me, this is the most serious threat of all, especially it's happened in Cote D'Ivoire, and the conditions are present in Nigeria for it to happen here (I.e conditions of service of junior military personnel aren't that great). Perhaps the only thing that can prevent this is if the government continues to keep on meeting its existing commitments to junior soldiers' conditions, even if it can't improve them. Also, I don't know that there are sufficiently intense nationwide grievances against the current government that an opportunist soldier will want to risk leading a full scale mutiny, especially if he isn't doing too badly himself under the current dispensation.

So there's my analysis. But of course, I'm just one of many crystal ball gazers.

The Grandiose Parlour Blog, via OnlineNigeria.com, says:
"We should see beyond the rhetoric and sensationalism displayed by some, including President Obasanjo , over the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) report card on sub-Sahara Africa ..."

My reaction? I don't think the President's report was sensational at all. I believed that the main reason he published his reaction to the report is to prevent people who are in favor of secession from reading the report and getting all excited: "You see? Even the US predicts that we are going to need to pull out!"

USA is not God, USA and her experts in Langley where the CIA headquarters is, though privy to a lot of information we 'mere' mortals do not have access to, are still not always right.

Ka, I like your analysis. Do you plan to work for our State Security Service? I think Dokubo's name is Asari Dokubo, not the other way round.

I think Obasanjo was right in his decision. I think we, as Nigerians, should also work towards a much more unified nation, though I know this is a most daunting task

The US government has been known to be over-sensational a lot of times and they are not above perjury - check out the case of Iraq!

Sokari Ekine's blog has some articles about violence in Nigeria and how it makes our democracy fragile:
[list][li]Nigeria on the Verge of Imploding?[/li]
[li]Nigeria's Oil "Killing" Fields[/li]
[li]Religious and ethnic violence in Nigeria[/li][/list]

Nice forum you have here Seun. Thanks for the comment on Grandiose Parlor, despite our differences on the verbage accompaning this topic, we both agree that to maintain the unity of this nation all hands need to be on deck, and it is important to alter the mind set of the people that call the shot in Nigeria.

We should all be able to see beyond the obvious. And by the way, the CIA is no God! They do not know everything (Iraq is a good example), however we all know the ailments that have inflicted our nation ... a cure is urgently needed. My fear is that when would we discover the cure? And who will be capable as a leader to initiate the therapy?

Honestly, I believe this is no sabotage or fib talk of any kind. Even an average Nigerian can see that we've been trying to live together, and it's not because we want to live together. If we don't fashion out the conditions of living together we will one day leave together.

The average igbo man wants out
The average yoruba man is so so now that OBJ is head
The average hausa man can no longer stomach being 2nd or 3rd fiddle
The many other tribes feel terribly shortchanged wherever they turn
The oil producing communities are praying for a chance to monopolies the oil
The average man on the street is now forced to be very religious

Let us wait till 2007. If we survive cleanly they they can burn their report. If not........

So Help Us God

War is not as easy as some of you are painting it. Even if the conditions in the country are not ideal yet, why is secession the answer? Civil wars are always bloody.

Old2boy, you are right: the reason the yorubas (excluding me) are no longer talking about secession is because a yoruba man has been in power for 6 years. The hausas, I am sure, are not interested in any secession - all they want is for the next president to be a hausa man. Perhaps all we need in this country is for our next president to be an igbo man?

There is no way the south-easterners can break out of the country without the loss of millions of their lives. Is it really worth it? Because even if they succeed in breaking away, they will start fighting among themselves (for control of the oil fields).

You see, the "Igbo nation" is not a homogenous nation; do you remember that this is why Lord Lugard's indirect rule system did not work for them?

This goes to show that no good can come out of Igbo secession. Not for them, and certainly not for the rest of us. We need to stick with Nigeria and make it work. We need to be patient with the process. Nigeria, as it stands today, remains the giant of Africa.

As keen observers of the events in the last one week, do you think that our leaders in the national assembly are being hones and living up to there responsibilities by acting as if that report was nmeant to cause disaffection.Me thinks that the substance in that report which is what they are shying away from will eventually catch up with us soon.The political reform arguments point to the truth behing ==d the US report

Don't Dismiss US Report, Makarfi, Rimi Tell FG
"Governor Ahmed Makarfi of Kaduna State and former governor of Kano State, Alhaji Abubakar Rimi have called on the Federal Government to see the recent United States intelligence report on the country as a challenge rather than playing cheap politics with it.

"The report had indicated that Nigeria may disintegrate in about 15 years even as it identified Kaduna and Kano as two northern cities that pose the greatest threat to the unity of the country."
http://thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=18766 (username nairaland, password nairaland)

"I think our leaders are playing to the gallery; chasing shadows instead of the substance. The important contents of that report, are they in any way true? Has oil impoverished Nigerians? Is corruption endemic and a monster facing us? Are our leaders genuinely working for the interest of the Nigerian people?

"If any of these is 'no' then they should stop disgracing us. The senate and house of reps are on vacation now. They have just shared so much money amongst themselves, and they will forget that many a Nigerian does not have access to that kind of money. They should be guided accordingly.

"Doomsday is by the corner but the difference is that it will consume them and their cronies alone.

Sent in by KING GUZU

this coming from the same CIA that saw nuclear weapons in Iraq, i find that hard to believe. maybe they published it because it serves their interest(At least a disordered Nigeria will allow Halliburton, cheney's company, to come back)

And why are they "mapping sub-saharan Africa's future?" Are they God who knows the future? Have they finished mapping their own future before mapping other people's? They should go sidon.

No one predicted Nigeria would fall. They merely stated that if it did, it would be a disaster for all of Africa.

The reports of the experts, while not conclusive, leaves much to be desired.

We are in a country that is truly volatile. While I don't believe the citizens of this country have the stomach for an all out war, the skirmishes that we have experienced many times have always led to destruction of life. We also know that such skirmishes have been brought about by a few individuals who use such situations to score politcal are economic goals.

Such people can also now capitalise on such reports and make their followers go on rampage. I am sure if any other country generates a report like that on the US they would have received very sharp reactions.

We should remind the experts of the days of segregation in the US. Did it lead to rebellions? Nigeria is a country that is diverse containing subsets that are further diverse. The South of Nigeria has uncountable number of tribes. Some of them don't trust the igbos one bit - will they be willing to go with them? What is presently considered Northern Nigeria includes the North central which has Tivs, Jukuns and other minorities. What will be their fate under the major Hausa tribes?

The country is better as one and a break out will be disastrous. To that extent the experts might be a bit correct.

You don't need to be an expert to see Nigeria is in danger of breaking apart.Damn i would not mind it breaking apart because the current arrangement never favored me so why should i care for the Northern guys who in the event of Nigeria breaking apart would have to sell kolanuts for a living?

Hi people,

I am sure you are all aware of the dooms day report by the United States, saying that Nigeria will break up in 15 years.

I just want to have a feel of what we the leaders of tomorrow have to say about the way the U.S believes it can have domination in any country they want to,

they sneeze and the country catches a cold!

If any of you work in Victoria Island and have to traverse Ozumba Mbadiwe where Walter Carrignton is off, then you will understand. I happend to be on training

on walter carrignton last week and it was hell getting into the street.

I feel we the people and the govmt should hold its ground, and stand firm, and not take all this belittleling from the U.S.

A lot of things have started to change in Nigeria, (dont blame me its what i see, i am an incurable optimist) and i believe that we are getting to the place where

we all will be lad to carry the green passport.

what do you guys think?

Don't mind Americans joo. They are looking for booty (our Oil) to suck.
They will not succeed of their plans to tear us apart. The war they started in Iraq, Afghanistan and the problems, pains and agonies are still there unabated.
I don;t like them ooo but I like their dollars and they like our Oil.
Dept pardon, Na george bush first kick against us. U see am?

Nigeria breaking up would be terrible. One of the problems africa has is the countries are two small anyway. if we ended up smaller like the rest of the countries, economically and politically we'd be in a worse way

Thank u o my brotha,u've said it all.Na de thing wey dey wan chop dey make dem talk nonsense!

Greatpeter:

Don't mind Americans joo. They are looking for booty (our Oil) to suck.
They will not succeed of their plans to tear us apart. The war they started in Iraq, Afghanistan and the problems, pains and agonies are still there unabated.
I don;t like them ooo but I like their dollars and they like our Oil.
Dept pardon, Na george bush first kick against us. U see am?

They should just keep quite n mind their business.

Predicted?? they always did, Iraq supposed to have WMDs remember

I love all your contributions on this topic, and its encouraging to find a lot of nigerians with such intelligent views. This just shows that many are concerned as regards the future of their country. Honestly we have no other.
Its with this same token that I have mine.

In as much as one is always weary 'bout foreign reports especially from the US, one cannot completely ignore it as puffed-up.

The truth is Nigeria is a very delicate entity right now. And using precedence from other experience such as Yugoslavia (not even africa), you tend to think that those around in 1914 were short sighted. Its no disclosure that even after so long we still have this issues of ethnic divide in Ngeria.

But thank God Nigerias are unique people with an unbelivable desire to rise above all adversity. It does not really matter to me which part of the country a president comes from, the most important thing is for the average Nigerian to have the basic necessities of life.

And a hope that you can look forward to a government that is not self centered, not corrupt. That our young ones can go through secondary schools with a bright hope of geting university education. And a lot other things as well.

Me i dont want us to divide, infact the interests of some people will not let this country breakup.

ethnic issues i believe will be a thing of the past when people have food on their tables, there isnt enough to go round and there will always be

the less priviledge, but if the leadership can be organised and a majority can be taken care of then people will forget that mr a is Ibo or mrs b is

hausa.

Even who made them experts? The future of Nigeria does not rest on Man's expertise.
The govt. of Nig. is on His shoulder.

God ke

Did God carry off 700 billion dollars from nigeria and put it in europe. I think its time we wake up and stop decieving ourselves. Our leaders steal all our money and then start praying to God. Let them keep it up

Great job Ka, couldn't have said it better myself. As for the CIA, were they not the one's that told us that Saddam Hussein had WMDs? Were they not the one's who didn't know that the Soyuz Sovietskish was about to collapse?

that nigr nigeria is going to break up doesn't mean there's gonna be strife involved

It is likely that if there is wide-spread rioting that follows the release of the census, there could be a middle rank military coup which might be unable to gain control of the entire country.

, and where you counted? There will be no rioting.

Don't mind Afeni, he's not even in Nigeria and he's talking war because he knows it won't affect him.