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BETTING STRATEGY

Every punter has their own strategy or sports betting systems upon which they rely. This is the punter's personal way to manage betting accounts in order to try and get some decent betting profits in.

There are some betting strategies that really can help you increase your winnings. Most of these strategies involve something that is very hard for the average punter to perform, and something which can be a challenge for even the most successful sports investor. It's discipline .
All strategies have rules, but many people find it hard to stick to the rules when something just "feels" right.

Value-Strategy & Kelly Stakes

Here comes my value- strategy: Use a good source which shows you the probabilities (percentage- distribution) of results on the basis of good statistics.
It's not easy to find such a good source - an example would be: statarea.com The alternatives are statto.com and prosoccer.gr

Then you take the current odds of your favourite bookie (that's the one where you have got the most money in the betting account ;-))

Then you have to compare the statistical percentages with the current odds. Decimal odds can be simply converted into percentages by dividing 1 by the odds (e.g. 1 / 1.5 = 0.666 = 67%)

Example:
Arsenal Chelsea 27 39 34
Odds on Chelsea at e.g. Bet365 are 2.40 1 / 2.40 = 0.416 --> meaning 42% Gives you a difference of 42% - 34% = 8%
Then you can stake those 8% according to the Kelly-strategy . Stake according to Kelly amounts to: budget (e.g.£500) multiplied by 1/10th of the valuation (here 8% thus 0.08) divided by the decimal odds minus 1 (here 2.40 - 1 = 1.40)

Thus, at our match 40 divided by 1.40 = a £28.57 stake The Kelly-strategy has the advantage that the
stake is calculated on the basis of probabilities and your currently available budget .
Best wishes

To Be Continued............