B. ABUJA 1736
C. ABUJA 962

Classified By: Ambassador Robin R. Sanders Reasons 1.4. (b & d).

1. (C/NF) Summary: Below is Post's interim analysis on the
current atmospherics and state of play in Nigeria as a result
of concerns about President Yar'Adua's health and the degree
to which his continued decline could lead to either sudden
death or possible incapacitation. This, coupled with a
larger-than-earlier stated cabinet reshuffle has Nigerians on
edge, as everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop on
both the cabinet issues and Yar'Adua's future. End Summary.

Introduction: Sudden Death or Incapacitation

2. (S) On the sudden death scenario, Post's interim analysis
is that the sudden death of President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua
would put Nigeria in short-term political, if not economic
and social, turmoil. Nigeria's political stability depends
more on a carefully balanced ethno-religious, regional
understanding which is partly reflected in the three tiers of
government carefully outlined in the Nigerian Constitution.
The informal arrangement of rotating the Presidency between
the North and the South also has contributed to, at least,
managing regional tensions. Over the past 6 months our
reporting (ref C) has highlighted that the traditional
Northern elite and past power brokers (such as former
President Babangida, retired General Abubakar, National
Security Advisor Mukhtar, and Presidential aspirants Buhari
and Atiku) have had difficulty coalescing around one central
figure as a leader for Northern issues. In addition, their
efforts to counter the current trends in the ruling Peoples
Democratic Party (PDP) or Yar'Adua government (ref C) have
also not been successful. This includes seemingly at present
no ability to identify any strong Northern candidate who
would be a unifying personality for Northerners or an obvious
successor to Yar'Adua in case of his sudden death. Yar'Adua's
close allies to date are persons who are referred to by many
as being his "Katsina Mafia," meaning those either who
served, worked or went to school with him at various stages
of his formation or years of service in Katsina State (e.g.
current Secretary of Government Yayale Ahmed, Minister of
Agriculture Ruma, Special Economic Advisor Yakubu, current
Katsina Governor Shema, and of course his wife Turai
Yar'Adua). In addition, Kwara State Governor Saraki, who is
also head of the Governor's Forum, has become a close ally of
the President.

3. (S) It does seem that Yar'Adua's steady and visible health
decline is pushing a variety of activities, including a
larger looming cabinet reshuffle than was first considered by
Yar'Adua, in what appears to be preparations for more periods
of time when the President possibly cannot function or has to
travel out of Nigeria for medical reasons. As an aside, the
Ambassador was told September 15, by Presidential Special
Advisor Economic Affairs Tanimu Yakubu, that he is working,
as directed by the President, on the major changes in
ministerial portfolios and expects the new ministerial
line-up to be announced after the September 24 Federal
Executive Council, hinting that the Commerce and Finance
Ministers may be on the chopping block. Meanwhile the new
Secretary to the Government of the Federation Ahmed told
Ambassador on same day that Yar'Adua had asked him to handle
most of the day-to-day executive activities in order for the
latter to better manage his energy level. Ahmed also admitted
the seriousness of the President's health (which in the past
would not have been done), adding that the Presidency needed
to improve its openness about the President's health issues.

4. (C) Taking all this into account, it is possible that the
obvious decline in Yar'Adua's health might just be the spark
that energizes, forces, and pushes Northerners to take better
stock of who could take Yar'Adua's place and represent the
North. Post strongly believes that it is highly unlikely that
the North would permit the permanent succession of Goodluck

ABUJA 00001868 002 OF 004


Jonathan to the Villa. Doing so would allow the South to
have back-to-back Presidencies )- upsetting the delicate
ethno-religious regional equilibrium that keeps the myriad of
political forces in Nigeria ) on balance ) coexisting as
opposed to fully imploding. Jonathan (who may want the
Presidency) has done a few things over the last month that
have irked the President, such as trying to court Northern
elites in Kaduna, as well as his mismanagement of the Niger
Delta issue. Jonathan appears to realize that any respect
for Constitutional succession would be very short-lived and
viewed by most as transitional to provide space for
Northerners to identify their candidate. However, we cannot
discount the possibility that some in Jonathan's inner circle
might urge him to stay on. That being said, we doubt that the
North would allow things to get that far and we may be
hearing more rumblings in the near term of possible Northern
consensus on potential succession figures as worries and
concerns over Yar'Adua's declining health persists. Possible
figures include candidates that may not have had a national
political stage in the past, similar to Yar'Adua. In
addition, Southerners are cognizant that any insistence on
their part for a full term Jonathan Presidency could plunge
the country into severe ethnic and regional tensions.
Furthermore, Post is unaware of any effort by the South to
compete with the North on any permanent basis against its
time to hold the Presidency by putting forth any Southern
candidate, including Jonathan (who really only garners
Southern support from select communities in Bayelsa State,
where he served as governor). Although we suspect that the
Constitutional succession would be on a transitional, and not
permanent basis, Poloffs heard from Senator Umaru Dahiru
(People's Democratic Party, Sokoto State) on September 15
that he believed that if Yar'Adua died, the rule of law would
prevail with Jonathan taking the helm. Dahiru added that the
rule of law is "paramount" for the North. ANPP presidential
aspirant General Buhari also told Poloffs recently that if
Yar'Adua becomes incapacitated or dies, that the safest thing
would be for the country to follow the Constitution and
permit Jonathan to assume the Presidency. We note, however,
that there was no indication that they meant or mean on a
permanent basis or transitionally. With this backdrop, below
follow Post comments keyed to the additional points raised in
ref A.

A. (C) Stability: Those with power want to see Nigeria deal
with any eventuality in a relatively peaceful manner; many
elites gain too much from the status quo and have too much to
lose. As for those in the South, the older generations
remember well the devastation of the Biafran Civil War of the
1970s, and want to ensure that this type of devastation in
the South does not take place again. It is also important to
note that over the last 8-9 years, there has been a growth in
numbers (although not huge) of Nigeria's middle class,
technocrats, and returning highly educated nationals (many
from the United States) who have and are looking to
continually invest in the Nigerian private sector, starting
nascent businesses, holding senior State- and Federal-level
positions, serving in National and State Assemblies, and
leading non-government organizations. This group is not only
well-educated, but sophisticated and not interested in having
Nigeria fall into further disrepair.

B. (C) Military: Over the last 8-9 years, the concept of
civilian leadership has taken hold for the most part, and the
military appears from all indications not only to be talking
the talk on this issue, but walking the walk. There is also a
younger generation of military leaders which has been further
bolstered by Yar'Adua's recent sweep of the past service
chiefs. The recent new appointments of the current Chiefs of
Defense, Army, Navy, and Air Force seem to share the
reputation of being highly professional officers who, at the
moment, appear not only to be free from allegations of
corruption and political activity, but to date, are not yet
implicated in any Niger Delta related shenanigans or
complicity. We believe at this time that this is especially
true of Chief of Defense Staff Air Marshal Paul Dike. We
note, however, that the changes in the senior military

ABUJA 00001868 003 OF 004


leadership have not settled in and we will need to wait to
see whether they are proactive on issues important to the
USG.

In addition, many key positions within the respective
services remain vacant. Therefore, Post assesses that in the
event of President Yar'Adua's death or incapacitation, the
military would not likely be desirous of mounting a coup
d'etat or similar destabilizing action of which the country's
history is fraught. There are some questions about their
capability to do so, but we could see them step in as noted
in ref C, along with the police, to maintain law and order if
necessary -- similar to what happened in Lagos earlier this
year at the height of the city's crime wave. We also believe
that former military
officers, including former heads of state, would mostly
likely not only join but be asked into deliberations on any
political crises (largely behind the scenes, at least
initially) rather than attempting to promote or provoke coup
d'etat action by the military as in the past. That said, we
are carefully monitoring the military at all levels,
including the rank and file.

C. (S) Yar'Adua and the Supreme Court: Should the President
become incapacitated or die prior to the expected October
2008 Supreme Court decision on the 2007 election outcome, we
believe that this would provide the Supreme Court with the
cover it would need to overturn the 2007 election and call
for a rerun. This would also allow the North the opportunity
to choose another President, avoiding an awkward and uneasy
temporary transition to Jonathan. However, if Yar'Adua
weathers the storm with his health and remains even
marginally on the job, then it is likely (see our earlier
analysis, ref C) that the Supreme Court would uphold his
election. We will need to see how the dividing up of his
executive duties are handled between SGF Ahmed, Economic
Advisor Yakubu, the new Principal and Permanent Secretaries
of the Villa David Edevbie and Baba Kaigama respectively, as
well as National Security Advisor Mukhtar who (according to
press reports) has been given an additional department -- the
Presidential Air Fleet -- which was moved from civilian
control on or about September 15 to military control, with a
commanding officer reporting to Mukhtar. We note, however,
that Mukhtar too seems to be having health issues, but he
does have strong political aspirations and in any political
vacuum could seek to strategically position himself.

D. (SBU) What Next: Post will continue to seek additional
information on the relative likelihood of the abovementioned
scenarios and has identified 14 Northerners who may be able
to provide additional insight as things progress including:
Former Sultan of Sokoto Dasuki, former Minister of Defense
T.Y. Danjuma, businessman Aliko Dangote, businessman Amino
Dantata, Emir of Kano Ado Bayero, Northern elder Maitama
Sule, retired General Jeremiah Useni, former Finance Minister
Adamu Ciroma, IB Haruna (Arewa Consultative Forum Chairman),
Northern Union leader Olu Saraki, former National Security
Advisor Aliyu Mohammed, Kano State Governor Ibrahim Shekerau,
Borno State Governor Ali Modu Shariff, and close confidant of
Yar'Adua and head of the Governor's Forum and Kwara State
Governor Saraki (who meets regularly with the Ambassador and
who has invited her to Kwara State early next week). ConGen
Lagos will also reach out quietly to key Southerners on the
above issues and Ambassador will be meeting with several
southern Governors and traditional leaders during her
upcoming September 16-18 trip to the region. Over the
foreseeable next couple of weeks, until the cabinet reshuffle
is complete and announced, there will be a fair amount of
disquiet on the Nigerian political scene, on top of the
unease over Yar'Adua's health. The Nigerians also do not
have a good handle on the "what next" scenario, but we
suspect that the line-up of the new cabinet will give us more
of an ability to determine whether the Northerners are
getting better organized in order to be responsive on the
possible Yar'Adua succession issue, and also as to where the
true power might lie as Yar,Adua declines.


ABUJA 00001868 004 OF 004


5. (U) This message has been coordinated between Abuja and
Lagos.
SANDERS

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08ABUJA1868_a.html

Hmm. And there is also the New dirty war on Africa's Mining rights