The pound could jump by as much as 6% against the dollar and UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage could resign Friday if Britain votes to remain in the European Union in Thursday's referendum and avoid a so-called Brexit.



Leading up to the vote, more attention has been given to apocalyptic market scenarios in the event of a Brexit than to what would happen if the UK votes to stay in the EU.

Some of the forecasts have been grim. HSBC estimated this week that if Britain votes to leave the EU, the pound could fall by 15% against the dollar and gross-domestic-product growth could be 1 to 1.5 percentage points lower in 2017 than it would have been otherwise.

With the result on a knife edge, however, there is a good chance it won't turn out that way. Here are some of the predictions of how Friday could unfold if the UK votes to stay:

Currency:

The pound will most likely get a bump against the dollar, as future uncertainty clears. "Should a remain outcome be confirmed, the market will immediately begin to focus on underlying indicators and in this scenario we can envisage sterling reaching $1.56 within a year," Bill O'Neill at UBS Wealth Management said.
Stock Markets:

Stocks are set to rise rapidly on a Remain vote, with Barclays and Ryanair the big winners in the UK, according to research by Macquarie, while Morgan Stanley has said EU indexes would rally even harder.
The goodwill might flow across the Atlantic too, as risky assets become more attractive. Analysts from Morgan Stanley said in a note that "this episode could go the way of Y2K, and by July 4th we in the US may be celebrating our independence from Britain while we are also celebrating Britain's lack of independence from Europe, with materially higher markets."
Interest Rates:

Yields on bonds will rise sharply as investors dump safe government debt assets for riskier shares, according to a note from Deutsche Bank published Tuesday.
Further down the line, that could translate to higher central-bank rates. With no EU referendum to worry about roiling financial markets, central bankers can focus more fully on stopping inflation. The Bank of England's inflation report on August will be an important moment, according to O'Neill at UBS: "It will be a pivotal point in the direction of policy for the last months of the year," he said.
Politics:

Leadership challenges from the right wing would come to a head. Bookies at Ladbrokes have now chalked up Nigel Farage at 8/11 to have left his position with the Eurosceptic party within a few days of the EU referendum outcome.
A victory for Remain wouldn't necessarily halt the momentum of nationalist parties across Europe. According to CLSA's "Greed and Fear" research note, a narrow victory could still empower right-wing movements on the continent and "it would take a 10-point-plus majority for the 'ins' for the referendum to become neutral for Eurozone separatists," according to CLSA's Greed and Fear research note.

Insightful!