By Dele Sobowale

“The president cannot make clouds to rain, he cannot make the corn grow, he cannot make business to be good”, President William Taft, 1857-1930. (VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ p 199).

Taft was American President from 1909 to 1913; meaning he served only one term during which the US economy was in a recession. He paid the price for coming to power at the wrong time. Taft was not the first, and he would not be the last president, to learn the age-long lesson that economics, like rain, sun or earthquakes etc, respects no president’s wishes. When Karl Marx, 1818-1883, pronounced that “Men make history, but not just as they please” (VBQ p 93), he must have had leaders like Buhari in mind. Nigerians were aware that Buhari, until he went to London for “God-knows-what”, was adamantly opposed to the devaluation of the naira for reasons that were badly explained because he is not an economist.

He returned just in time for the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, to announce a new foreign exchange policy which effectively devalued the naira. And the President had been silent ever since. The old General had finally met a force mightier than all Heads of State put together. The obvious question is why? However, before answering that question, it is pertinent to point out that all those who had supported Buhari is his obstinate opposition to devaluation had also surrendered; just as they retreated when fuel price went up to N145 per litre despite threatening fire and brimstone if it did. Buhari would be best advised to select the people whose views he takes seriously.

A Vice President of the US had made the observation that “The right to be heard does not automatically include the right to be taken seriously.” (Hubert Humphrey, 1911-1978). For too long our President listened to people who should not be taken seriously. The country has paid a heavy price for the delay and it will pay a lot more. Delay in providing economic remedies is always dangerous. Presently, we should examine the consequences of delay.

Why, then, did Buhari meekly surrender to the CBN? It is totally out of character. But, the reason is not hard to discover. Our President was shown, among other things, the rapid decline of our external reserves and the inevitability of more erosion unless he reversed himself. If not, the external reserves might reach such a critical stage that Nigerians would experience the return of “Essential Commodities” and the hardships associated with it during Buhari’s first term as Head of State – despite being a military regime.

Back in 1984-5 Buhari’s government could not decree provision of sufficient milk (even infant milk), detergents, sardines etc. Housewives had to struggle when army trucks came to supply OMO, sugar, Geisha etc, at control price, and get whipped mercilessly by soldiers. Somebody must have told the President that unless he relinquished his stubborn opposition to devaluation (which fuel price increase had partly accomplished anyway) , he would live to see ugly history repeating itself during his second tour of duty.

It is also quite possible that somebody, who had access to Buhari, must have pointed out to him the Chinese proverb saying “Nobody steps into the same river twice”. The Nigerians he and Idiagbon bullied successfully in 1984-5 are related to Nigerians today in name only. Then armed civilians could not be up to ten thousand. Today, over six million small fire arms are in private hands in West Africa – with the bulk in Nigeria. The Nigerian civilians of 2016 can no longer be pushed around by the military as they please. Buhari must deliver on the economy as well as other promises or suffer the consequences. Policies and programmes that are not grounded in good economics will imperil his government. At any rate, while it might be possible to bully some of the people some of the time, he can’t bully reality.

One reality lurking in the background and which cannot be scared is famine and food scarcity in 2016 and early 2017. With poor rainfall in the country, farmers are devastated everywhere. The harvests will be poor and we will need food imports if catastrophe is to be avoided. Neither Taft nor Buhari can make rain to fall or corn to grow, but, unlike early 20th century, in the 21st century, Presidents better know when crops will fail and plan ahead for intervention food imports before food riots erupt. If the erosion of external reserves had not been halted, there would have been no money to import the food needed later in the year and early 2017. For this reason, he might need to swallow more devaluation than he intended or would like to occur.

This warning had become necessary because his former supporters will soon start to point to high inflation as justification for their opposition to devaluation. The fact is, given our situation, inflation is inevitable. We either suffer it now or experience worse later when the external reserves might have been depleted further. It is like a driver slamming on the breaks before a vehicle out of control crashes into a wall. The damage is less.

Finally, the writer of UNDERTOW in the NATION on Saturday, June 25, 2016, remarked that “the president had responded [to journalists interviewing him] …that most of the time, the economists spoke above his head when they explained why the economy was experiencing turbulence”. Pity and the fault does not lie with Buhari alone. It is collective. In the last elections, we were confronted with a choice between “corruption incorporated”, as represented by the PDP, and a candidate weak in understanding economic principles in a world where no leading nation can afford such a leader. We are being visited by consequences of that limited choice.

Source: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/07/buhari-learns-bitter-lesson-economics-no-respecter-presidents/

Very interesting article.
I see Buhari making history like Jonathan did.
GEJ became the first sitting president in Africa to lose in an election to an opposition party and peacefully hand over power.
PMB can make history as an African President to have voluntarily resigned.
I don't care what his reasons will or should be, we can deliberate on that later.
PED

What shall it profit Nigeria for her president to recover N20billion from one sided fight against corruption but looses more than N100billion from poor economic policies?

We have capable hands that can set our economy aright but Mr. President have failed to use them.

Unless Buhari intends to rule Nigeria through state of emergency after May 29, 2019, he should know the next election is already decided.

ped007:
Very interesting article.
I see Buhari making history like Jonathan did.
GEJ became the first sitting president in Africa to lose in an election to an opposition party and peacefully hand over power.
PMB can make history as an African President to have voluntarily resigned.
I don't care what his reasons will or should be, we can deliberate on that later.
PED

You don't seem to know your general well bro, he will rather die than resign because from the time he left in 80s to the time he got back into power, he never did a thing worthy of emulation.
All he did was contest, loose and contest again.
No books written, no foundation, no nothing.
He just can't resign.

Kondomatic:
You don't seem to know your general well bro, he will rather die than resign because from the time he left in 80s to the time he got back into power, he never did a thing worthy of emulation.
All he did was contest, loose and contest again.
No books written, no foundation, no nothing.
He just can't resign.

Without ANY meaningful contribution for years Nigerians still 'elected' him to be their President.
Hmmmmm!

Kondomatic:
You don't seem to know your general well bro, he will rather die than resign because from the time he left in 80s to the time he got back into power, he never did a thing worthy of emulation.
All he did was contest, loose and contest again.
No books written, no foundation, no nothing.
He just can't resign.

I can't imagine a man of that caliber; ex-general in civil war, ex-head of state, ex-petroleum minister, ex-PTF chairman...that never managed any business of his own. He boasts with his poverty of ideas and entrepreneurship. He boasts with his lack of self development and mentorship quality. He sees it as integrity. So so pathetic.

Lalasticlala why not say happy Allah here too

During the election APC made gullible folks believe Buhari could walk on water unaided, singlehandedly revolutionise Nigeria, able to cure Cancer etc. I laff in Kafanchan.
Reality is beginning to sink in abi?

ped007:
Very interesting article.
I see Buhari making history like Jonathan did.
GEJ became the first sitting president in Africa to lose in an election to an opposition party and peacefully hand over power.
PMB can make history as an African President to have voluntarily resigned.
I don't care what his reasons will or should be, we can deliberate on that later.
PED

A wailing dream!

oglalasioux:
Unless Buhari intends to rule Nigeria through state of emergency after May 29, 2019, he should know the next election is already decided.

We heard all this kind of Noise over and over before the elections. Truth be told, ur vote is as inconsequential as it eas for Jonathan and can never change the fact that should Buhari still be strong enough to contest next elections, he will do and win fantastically.

The fact is that nobody gives what he doesn't have. Buhari was never intellectually and economically positioned to preside over a nation of more than 170million people in a 21st century era and that lays credence to his policy summersaults on fuel subsidy and currency devaluation. The so called feats achieved in 1984/85 were attributable to exploits of his lieutenants especially the late Idiagbon who was the defacto president. Buhari is a very clever character who often times portray a picture of who he's not. He thrives in the habit of harvesting and grandstanding with other people's glory.

"When you blame others, you give up your power to change" (Robert Anthony) Uncle Dele summed up the disaster we put ourselves in, just like the biblical Joseph's admonition to pharoah was heeded and implemented, i doubt if if this write-up would make my meaning to the 'solomon' in power. Progress is impossible without change, and those who can not change their mind can not change anything.

I have not seen this kind of situation before.

The economy is in a total mess.

And who said the politicians are not still looting public funds.

Double tragedy we are in.

Look people, it is too late in the day for this kind of write up.

People like this Sobowale guy were ready to burn at the stakes for Buhari all this while that we have been shouting.

Look people, check your international news channels.

They have begun to show extreme malnutrition in Nigeria.

The kind of footage with flies swarming human beings who are too weak to drive them that they just allow them perch on their faces.

The US and other international "aid" donors are already redirecting their "benevolence" at Nigeria.

People like the Sultan of Sokoto have already shouted.

It is not a matter of later in the year or next year.

Famine, defined as severe food shortages, is already here.

People are being reported to steal food on the stove.

People are already reportedly pawning their children for food.

Nigeria is in great need of prayers.

People who vehemently and violently supported this government are secretly ruing their foolishness.

Some of them like Sobowale are trying to be smart by acting neutral.

They are acting like their senses have just been returned back to them from where they were locked.

How could anyone, who went to school, not know that Buhari should have been encouraged to vie for EFCC chairman and not for Nigerian president?

When we reminded them of the essential commodities saga that Dele is just remembering, they told us it was thing of the past.

When we asked them what Buhari has done to improve on himself since then, they sounded some incoherence.

How could anyone use complete six months of a four-year term to select an ordinary cabinet and expect any thing good from the economy?

The economy runs on a daily cycle. It doesn't wait for anyone.

After attacking the economy so viciously and pauperizing the whole country, they are set to completely bury it by directing their attacks at the banks.

How many countries in the world attack its financial institutions with billions of naira depositors funds during recession? To what end?

Sobowale should not call to arms, what Nigeria needs is prayers. He was part of the people who foisted this calamity on us, he should be mindful of the kind of remedy he is proposing.

Let there be sincere National prayers and fasting.

Lol. See yorubas now comming out to yarn opata because buhari's failure is now obvious. Wen we warned they called us names.

koboko69:


A wailing dream!



We heard all this kind of Noise over and over before the elections. Truth be told, ur vote is as inconsequential as it eas for Jonathan and can never change the fact that should Buhari still be strong enough to contest next elections, he will do and win fantastically.

He only won with 3m votes while OBJ, Yar'dua and GEJ beat him with over 10m votes. His voters and supporters aren't paying N87 but N145 per liter of PMS. His voters and non voters are paying for a bag of rice which went up from
N9k to N16k.. Trust me a lot of hungry, dissaponted and disillusioned voters who didn't vote last time, are going to come out and vote.

Nigeria is indeed not safe in the hands of Buhari. What this administration lacks is sound economic policies. Buhari, may not be sound economically, but he should have surrounded himself with Technocrats like GEJ did. PDP may be a corrupt party, but they have shown that they understand the economy of this nation more than "saint" Buhari and his party.

adconline:

He only won with 3m votes while OBJ, Yar'dua and GEJ beat him with over 10m votes. His voters and supporters aren't paying N87 but N145 per liter of PMS. His voters and non voters are paying for a bag of rice which went up from
N9k to N16k.. Trust me a lot of hungry, dissaponted and disillusioned voters who didn't vote last time, are going to come out and vote.

. Clown. Let someone come and win with 10million votes now na with PVC. Bag of rice? We all know why. If u like pretend not to know the truth, it changes nothing bro.

porka:
Look people, it is too late in the day for this kind of write up.

People like this Sobowale guy were ready to burn at the stakes for Buhari all this while that we have been shouting.

Look people, check your international news channels.

They have begun to show extreme malnutrition in Nigeria.

The kind of footage with flies swarming human beings who are too weak to drive them that they just allow them perch on their faces.

The US and other international "aid" donors are already redirecting their "benevolence" at Nigeria.

People like the Sultan of Sokoto have already shouted.

It is not a matter of later in the year or next year.

Famine, defined as severe food shortages, is already here.

People are being reported to steal food on the stove.

People are already reportedly pawning their children for food.

Nigeria is in great need of prayers.

People who vehemently and violently supported this government are secretly ruing their foolishness.

Some of them like Sobowale are trying to be smart by acting neutral.

They are acting like their senses have just been returned back to them from where they were locked.

How could anyone, who went to school, not know that Buhari should have been encouraged to vie for EFCC chairman and not for Nigerian president?

When we reminded them of the essential commodities saga that Dele is just remembering, they told us it was thing of the past.

When we asked them what Buhari has done to improve on himself since then, they sounded some incoherence.

How could anyone use complete six months of a four-year term to select an ordinary cabinet and expect any thing good from the economy?

The economy runs on a daily cycle. It doesn't wait for anyone.

After attacking the economy so viciously and pauperizing the whole country, they are set to completely bury it by directing their attacks at the banks.

How many countries in the world attack its financial institutions with billions of naira depositors funds during recession? To what end?

Sobowale should not call to arms, what Nigeria needs is prayers. He was part of the people who foisted this calamity on us, he should be mindful of the kind of remedy he is proposing.

Let there be sincere National prayers and fasting.

You guys should stop all these prayer nonsense. Nigeria need good and intelligent leaders and not prayers.

Reyginus:
You guys should stop all these prayer nonsense. Nigeria need good and intelligent leaders and not prayers.

Baba, only GOD can do it

BUHARIISCURSED:

Baba, only GOD can do it

Nonsense. The same way he did it for the civilized countries in the world right now. When you go for a haircut do you pray that the barber you'd meet be good when you can simply pick from barbers that are good?

he can never learn.

A man who came to power via quota system and refused to upgrade in knowledge can never learn

for now, the tyrant-in-chief is very confused and aiming hopelessly like a drenched hen

ped007:
By Dele Sobowale

“The president cannot make clouds to rain, he cannot make the corn grow, he cannot make business to be good”, President William Taft, 1857-1930. (VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ p 199).

Taft was American President from 1909 to 1913; meaning he served only one term during which the US economy was in a recession. He paid the price for coming to power at the wrong time. Taft was not the first, and he would not be the last president, to learn the age-long lesson that economics, like rain, sun or earthquakes etc, respects no president’s wishes. When Karl Marx, 1818-1883, pronounced that “Men make history, but not just as they please” (VBQ p 93), he must have had leaders like Buhari in mind. Nigerians were aware that Buhari, until he went to London for “God-knows-what”, was adamantly opposed to the devaluation of the naira for reasons that were badly explained because he is not an economist.

He returned just in time for the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, to announce a new foreign exchange policy which effectively devalued the naira. And the President had been silent ever since. The old General had finally met a force mightier than all Heads of State put together. The obvious question is why? However, before answering that question, it is pertinent to point out that all those who had supported Buhari is his obstinate opposition to devaluation had also surrendered; just as they retreated when fuel price went up to N145 per litre despite threatening fire and brimstone if it did. Buhari would be best advised to select the people whose views he takes seriously.

A Vice President of the US had made the observation that “The right to be heard does not automatically include the right to be taken seriously.” (Hubert Humphrey, 1911-1978). For too long our President listened to people who should not be taken seriously. The country has paid a heavy price for the delay and it will pay a lot more. Delay in providing economic remedies is always dangerous. Presently, we should examine the consequences of delay.

Why, then, did Buhari meekly surrender to the CBN? It is totally out of character. But, the reason is not hard to discover. Our President was shown, among other things, the rapid decline of our external reserves and the inevitability of more erosion unless he reversed himself. If not, the external reserves might reach such a critical stage that Nigerians would experience the return of “Essential Commodities” and the hardships associated with it during Buhari’s first term as Head of State – despite being a military regime.

Back in 1984-5 Buhari’s government could not decree provision of sufficient milk (even infant milk), detergents, sardines etc. Housewives had to struggle when army trucks came to supply OMO, sugar, Geisha etc, at control price, and get whipped mercilessly by soldiers. Somebody must have told the President that unless he relinquished his stubborn opposition to devaluation (which fuel price increase had partly accomplished anyway) , he would live to see ugly history repeating itself during his second tour of duty.

It is also quite possible that somebody, who had access to Buhari, must have pointed out to him the Chinese proverb saying “Nobody steps into the same river twice”. The Nigerians he and Idiagbon bullied successfully in 1984-5 are related to Nigerians today in name only. Then armed civilians could not be up to ten thousand. Today, over six million small fire arms are in private hands in West Africa – with the bulk in Nigeria. The Nigerian civilians of 2016 can no longer be pushed around by the military as they please. Buhari must deliver on the economy as well as other promises or suffer the consequences. Policies and programmes that are not grounded in good economics will imperil his government. At any rate, while it might be possible to bully some of the people some of the time, he can’t bully reality.

One reality lurking in the background and which cannot be scared is famine and food scarcity in 2016 and early 2017. With poor rainfall in the country, farmers are devastated everywhere. The harvests will be poor and we will need food imports if catastrophe is to be avoided. Neither Taft nor Buhari can make rain to fall or corn to grow, but, unlike early 20th century, in the 21st century, Presidents better know when crops will fail and plan ahead for intervention food imports before food riots erupt. If the erosion of external reserves had not been halted, there would have been no money to import the food needed later in the year and early 2017. For this reason, he might need to swallow more devaluation than he intended or would like to occur.

This warning had become necessary because his former supporters will soon start to point to high inflation as justification for their opposition to devaluation. The fact is, given our situation, inflation is inevitable. We either suffer it now or experience worse later when the external reserves might have been depleted further. It is like a driver slamming on the breaks before a vehicle out of control crashes into a wall. The damage is less.

Finally, the writer of UNDERTOW in the NATION on Saturday, June 25, 2016, remarked that “the president had responded [to journalists interviewing him] …that most of the time, the economists spoke above his head when they explained why the economy was experiencing turbulence”. Pity and the fault does not lie with Buhari alone. It is collective. In the last elections, we were confronted with a choice between “corruption incorporated”, as represented by the PDP, and a candidate weak in understanding economic principles in a world where no leading nation can afford such a leader. We are being visited by consequences of that limited choice.

Source: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/07/buhari-learns-bitter-lesson-economics-no-respecter-presidents/

I wish someone can 4ward dz article to pmb

oglalasioux:
Unless Buhari intends to rule Nigeria through state of emergency after May 29, 2019, he should know the next election is already decided.

Even if the entire south decide to vote for PDP, (which i doubt may be in existence then) the Entire North and a great percentage of the South West would rally round PMB. They stilll have the massive numbers needed.. The South East and South south wont forge any meaningful political front to wrest power with the current stupidity they exhibit... Those calling for 2019 would be disappointed, the wailing extends till 2023.

xprezboy:

I wish someone can 4ward dz article to pmb

I was about to reply you that he reads articles as this one on a daily bases; but I quickly remembered that reading and understanding are different.
He reads... But sadly, he NEVER get to understand.

Chessco:


What shall it profit Nigeria for her president to recover N20billion from one sided fight against corruption but looses more than N100billion from poor economic policies?

We have capable hands that can set our economy aright but Mr. President have failed to use them.

That's the thing. Buhari is disaster as a leader. The Naira has shed untold Billions in value since Buhari came in, Nigeria has lost trillions in revenue since the militants returned to the creeks largely due Buhari's cluelessness, Buhari has plunged the nation into bigger debt with his massive borrowing to finance his budget, capital flight in the millions of Dollars in the one year of Buhari. But despite all this, the only thing the 'Sai zombies' care about is the next big name to be arraigned by EFCC. This is their ultimate sign that Buhari is working. They are watching a Soap Opera while Buhari runs the country into the ground.

koboko69:

. Clown. Let someone come and win with 10million votes now na with PVC. Bag of rice? We all know why. If u like pretend not to know the truth, it changes nothing bro.

You are the real clown.. How about those underaged votes and goats counting as millions of voters?? What a display of willfuk ignorance, so all those APC and PDP-turned APC politrickians all rigged ekections b4 PVC?? So the only credible election was the one won by GMB which was organised by GEJ, a PDP politrickian?

diegwu01:
Even if the entire south decide to vote for PDP, (which i doubt may be in existence then) the Entire North and a great percentage of the South West would rally round PMB. They stilll have the massive numbers needed.. The South East and South south wont forge any meaningful political front to wrest power with the current stupidity they exhibit... Those calling for 2019 would be disappointed, the wailing extends till 2023.

...Keep deceiving yourself with this out-dated and lame political calculations.I can assure you that if your illiterate president continues with his bigotry and unguarded statements in respect of salient issues concerning this country(fulani hersmen inclusive)....coupled with economic hardship and hunger in the land....He will be humiliated out of office or this country dis-integrates.

...that is when you zombies will know that 'khaki no be leather'.The mounting dis-like for buhari by the common man on the streets no be here,but you lots can keep fooling yourselves.

adconline:

You are the real clown.. How about those underaged votes and goats counting as millions of voters?? What a display of willfuk ignorance, so all those APC and PDP-turned APC politrickians all rigged ekections b4 PVC?? So the only credible election was the one won by GMB which was organised by GEJ, a PDP politrickian?

I have limited time for sensless people. U have had ur share of that time. Have a good day!

Ngokafor:





...Keep deceiving yourself with this out-dated and lame political calculations.I can assure you that if your illiterate president continues with his bigotry and unguarded statements in respect of salient issues concerning this country(fulani hersmen inclusive)....coupled with economic hardship and hunger in the land....He will be humiliated out of office or this country dis-integrates.

...that is when you zombies will know that 'khaki no be leather'.The mounting dis-like for buhari by the common man on the streets no be here,but you lots can keep fooling yourselves.

Massive Support for PMB has not waned judging from recent respectable opinion polls carried by reputable platforms , your wailings have been in vain, it has not swayed reasonable folks because its clear your reasons for wailing are borne out of hate after the massive defeat of your hero and god, the Ineffectual buffoon. Your type have been complaining from day one may 29th 2015, of hunger, hardship and starvation yet you have the means to spew trash on a public forum more than a year after. PMB would never be stampeded out of office by your wailing and rantings as Nigerians daily understand the hatred most of you advocates for corruption spill because of the very spectacular defeat of 2015..