We are in trouble in this country. My bank sent me the inflation forcast for the month and it's not funny at all .

This country is on a free fall. God help us all.

Dear Esteemed Customer,

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is scheduled to release the inflation figure for July 2016 in the coming days, based on the Data Release Calendar available on the Bureau’s website.

The Economic Intelligence Group forecasts inflation rate (year-on-year) to accelerate to 17.2% in July 2016 from 16.5% posted in June 2016. Our methodology adopts an autoregressive analysis of past prices, while it recognizes all the assumptions used by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its computation of monthly composite consumer price index (CCPI).

We forecast inflation rate (year-on-year) to ascend to 17.2% from 16.5% reached in June 2016.

The expected upward momentum in headline inflation in July reflects increases in both food and core components of inflation.

The food component which has the largest weighting in the inflation basket will be responsible for a substantial amount of the overall price pressure. The uptick in prices from items such as fish, meat, vegetables and bread on the back of higher transportation and distribution cost will push inflation rate for the month of July higher.

The core index should also inch up slightly due to cost push factors on the back of continued depreciation of the Naira. The local currency depreciated more than 28% against the green back in the interbank and parallel market over the levels in June. The pass-through effect will be seen in the prices of imported items such as motor car and vehicle spare parts. Increases in cost of passenger transport by air will further drive the core index higher.

The nation’s reliance on imports of raw materials, refined products and consumer goods implies that a weaker Naira will compound the effect of imported inflation.

Attached is the detailed Inflation forecast report.


Regards