Personally I do not believe any sitting President would be brave to go after IBB in the short term. If the EFCC, AG or President ever tries to prosecute IBB in the near future the govt will be brought down via impeachment or the unthinkable, a coup.

IBB has enough power and money to destabilise any govt that does not cooperate with him.

The minute IBB is arrested, I am sure impeachment proceedings will start against the president. Remember OBJ's first term when he upset the powerful oligarchs by going for too many reforms, prosecuting "Big Men" and appointing who HE wanted to the cabinet? He was nearly impeached.

http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2002-08/a-2002-08-26-18-Nigeria.cfm?moddate=2002-08-26

If you recall the National Assembly threatened to impeach OBJ after he announced he would probe govt entities including the National Assembly! The NA responded by giving him an ultimatum to resign or face impeachment. The whole thing was a charade sponsored by OBJ opponents who feared being probed.

You are sure that impeachment proceedings will start against the president? How come?

Nothing will happen if he is arrested today just as nothing happened when OBJ and the late Yar'adua were arrested and jailed by Abacha.

The president has too much powers and as such can do anything he likes if he really wants to.

In case you have forgotten, OBJ is IBB's senior both in age and rank and in fact became the head of state before IBB. Whatever rank IBB attained in the army OBJ wore that rank before so let us not make this sound as if IBB was the first to achieve things as a military man or head of state.

Any incumbent leader can do what he likes. Ask former governors or even god fathers of some politicians and you will know this.

Nothing,

The issue of OBJ being IBB's senior is not relevant. You mentioned that Abacha jailed OBJ, was Abacha senior to OBJ? Abacha was a Colonel when OBJ was a 4 star General!
We should not underestimate the power of IBB.In Nigeria we know that money literally talks. Ask yourself why no head of state after IBB has ever dared look in his direction (Shonekan, Abacha, Abubakar, OBJ, Yar'Adua). Not even the dreaded and fearless Abacha dared touch IBB.

Afam:

You are sure that impeachment proceedings will start against the president? How come?

Nothing will happen if he is arrested today just as nothing happened when OBJ and the late Yar'adua were arrested and jailed by Abacha.

The president has too much powers and as such can do anything he likes if he really wants to.

In case you have forgotten, OBJ is IBB's senior both in age and rank and in fact became the head of state before IBB. Whatever rank IBB attained in the army OBJ wore that rank before so let us not make this sound as if IBB was the first to achieve things as a military man or head of state.

Any incumbent leader can do what he likes. Ask former governors or even god fathers of some politicians and you will know this.

maxsiollun:

The issue of OBJ being IBB's senior is not relevant. You mentioned that Abacha jailed OBJ, was Abacha senior to OBJ? Abacha was a Colonel when OBJ was a 4 star General!

Stop missing the point please.

I made statements to prove some times.

1. IBB can be arrested by the present president because he has powers to do so. An example was given that even OBJ was arrested by a head of state.

2. IBB is not the most senior head of state and that whatever power he may have tasted in the past OBJ did so before him.

While these two facts may not be mutually exclusive I would rather believe that you understand that they can live side by side as relevant points.

Or would you rather want me to believe your comments about being sure that impeachment proceedings will begin if anyone dared to arrest him even without any evidence to back up such statement? No, I won't.

I'm not asking whether he CAN be arrested. I'm asking what will happen if he is arrested.

My own thoughts are that anyone that is planning to arrest IBB had better have his hands very very clean or should be prepared to face the wrath of the country also. As far as i know, not many people (politicians, business men, traditional rulers, etc) out there are 'innocent' and have at one time or the other eaten a part of the national cake.

I have the sneaky feeling that IBB, being a former head of state, was and still is privy to a lot of the conspiracy that has gone down in this country. As we know, serving and retired army generals are still being fed with state security updates. I am sure IBB has much more than the 'usual' updates. Being a smart man and an accomplished soldier, i also feel that he has dates, documents and proof at his finger tips to use blackmail, persuasive measures and even outright threats to call a lot of people to order, should they entertain any ideas such as arresting him for trials. The few clean and honest people that tried to take him to court over certain issues (like Gani) did not go very far in their efforts. How many other people out there can boast of being as transparent as Gani?

The mere fact that OBJ is IBB's senior does not matter here. Was it not IBB and his 'cabal' that persuaded OBJ to run for presidency immediately after he came out of prison? I am equally sure that this cabal bankrolled his election. I dont think there is much to the 'seniority' thing in the Nigerian army. Afterall, was Mustapha not terrorizing officers who were much older than him in age and rank?  

Every society has its untouchables (to a certain degree). I think IBB is one of ours. Instead of publicly arresting him and ridiculing him, the powers that be would rather come to some form of agreements with him. Maybe give him a little 'slap on the wrist' like they have done to others like Igbinidion and co.

maxsiollun:

I'm not asking whether he CAN be arrested. I'm asking what will happen if he is arrested.

A lot of people will go down with him. That is why he CANT be arrested.

This is not a case of Odili, Ibori, Igbinideon and others who single handedly (or with a handful of associates) stole millions from state coffers. By the time IBB begins to finger Traditional rulers, Governors, Ministers, Bank managers, Ministers, Church leaders, Vice Chancellors, Soldiers, Past/present leaders who accepted vast amounts and 'helped' chop the national cake, the fibres of the country will just break down!

maxsiollun:

I'm not asking whether he CAN be arrested. I'm asking what will happen if he is arrested.

Did you miss the reproduced post below. I answered that question the first time I responded to this thread.

Afam:

Nothing will happen if he is arrested today just as nothing happened when OBJ and the late Yar'adua were arrested and jailed by Abacha.

@maxsiollun, which kind question be dis na?  my answer to ya question depend on what he was arrested for?  frankly i no tink say any nigerian alive get de guts to go arrest dat man.  de one wey arrrest IBB pikin dey exile now.

The fact remains that no President in Nigeria has got the gut to arrest him yet. May be one day it will happen. We can only pray it does.

i think the issue that should be discussed is when he will get arrested

it will only make headlines for a few weeks and that would be all. . . life would move on.

PS: It takes clout and courage to arrest IBB

Epiphany - thanks for the great lateral thinking. You have analysed a lot of the issues I had in mind and foreseen some of the obstacles to arresting IBB. Any attempt to prosecute him would open a giant can of worms that would consume much of the ruling class in Nigeria who did shady deals with him.

1) [B]There is a detailed, comprehensive and damning written indictment of corruption and financial mismanagement in the IBB regime which has been in public and govt circulation for over a decade. Yet no one has dared use this incriminating evidence called the "Oputa Report" to prosecute him[/B] - even though others with less clear cut cases have been prosecuted for corruption by the govt.

2) When Abacha died in 1999, who was the first person summoned to Aso Rock? The Chief of Defence staff? No. The A-G? No. The Chief of Army Staff? No. IBB was the first person summoned and it was he who gave instructions on what should happen next. He teleguided the transition programme of Abubabakar and bankrolled OBJ into power. To understand how instrumental IBB was and how much he pulled the strings, after Abacha died in 1998 IBB publicly said that the next civilian president would have to be someone who had:
[I]
"an excellent understanding of our political history……he would have to have an understanding of the military – so we could do business with him”[/I]

Does that sound like someone we know?,

3) IBB is stupendously wealthy. He may be the richest Nigerian alive. In Nigeria we know that money talks.

4) He has the entire army and security establishment in his pocket and they are all his "boys". Remember those army officers once tagged "IBB Boys"?  Most of them are now in the inner recesses of govt/political office:

*The Senate President David Mark (you know - the guy who is third in line to the presidency) is one of IBB's closest confidants. During the June 12 crisis, insiders have testified that IBB saw him as his chosen successor.

*Brigadiers Tunde Ogbeha, Raji Rasaki, Tanko Ayuba and John Shagaya are Senators.

*Throughout IBB's tenure, only 5 officers survived his purges throught his regime. One of them is Admiral Murtala Nyako. He is now the Gov of Adamawa State and his wife is a senior judge.

*Colonel Oyinlola was one his Mil Govs. He is now the Gov of Osun State.

*The current boss of the Nigerian armed forces used to be IBB's pilot.

*The current and prior National Security Adviser are his "boys".

I could go on forever with such examples. Do you think these people were positioned in such high offices coincidentally?  Do you think that people who owe their wealth, power, status, position and influence entirely to IBB's patronage will sit by and let him be disgraced w/o an almighty fight?

Epiphany:

My own thoughts are that anyone that is planning to arrest IBB had better have his hands very very clean or should be prepared to face the wrath of the country also. As far as i know, not many people (politicians, business men, traditional rulers, etc) out there are 'innocent' and have at one time or the other eaten a part of the national cake.

I have the sneaky feeling that IBB, being a former head of state, was and still is privy to a lot of the conspiracy that has gone down in this country. As we know, serving and retired army generals are still being fed with state security updates. I am sure IBB has much more than the 'usual' updates. Being a smart man and an accomplished soldier, i also feel that he has dates, documents and proof at his finger tips to use blackmail, persuasive measures and even outright threats to call a lot of people to order, should they entertain any ideas such as arresting him for trials. The few clean and honest people that tried to take him to court over certain issues (like Gani) did not go very far in their efforts. How many other people out there can boast of being as transparent as Gani?

The mere fact that OBJ is IBB's senior does not matter here. Was it not IBB and his 'cabal' that persuaded OBJ to run for presidency immediately after he came out of prison? I am equally sure that this cabal bankrolled his election. I dont think there is much to the 'seniority' thing in the Nigerian army. Afterall, was Mustapha not terrorizing officers who were much older than him in age and rank?  

Every society has its untouchables (to a certain degree). I think IBB is one of ours. Instead of publicly arresting him and ridiculing him, the powers that be would rather come to some form of agreements with him. Maybe give him a little 'slap on the wrist' like they have done to others like Igbinidion and co.

maxsiollun:

Epiphany - thanks for the great lateral thinking. You have analysed a lot of the issues I had in mind and foreseen some of the obstacles to arresting IBB. Any attempt to prosecute him would open a giant can of worms that would consume much of the ruling class in Nigeria who did shady deals with him.

1) [B]There is a detailed, comprehensive and damning written indictment of corruption and financial mismanagement in the IBB regime which has been in public and govt circulation for over a decade. Yet no one has dared use this incriminating evidence called the "Oputa Report" to prosecute him[/B] - even though others with less clear cut cases have been prosecuted for corruption by the govt.

2) When Abacha died in 1999, who was the first person summoned to Aso Rock? The Chief of Defence staff? No. The A-G? No. The Chief of Army Staff? No. IBB was the first person summoned and it was he who gave instructions on what should happen next. He teleguided the transition programme of Abubabakar and bankrolled OBJ into power. To understand how instrumental IBB was and how much he pulled the strings, after Abacha died in 1998 IBB publicly said that the next civilian president would have to be someone who had:
[I]
"an excellent understanding of our political history……he would have to have an understanding of the military – so we could do business with him”[/I]

Does that sound like someone we know?,

3) IBB is stupendously wealthy. He may be the richest Nigerian alive. In Nigeria we know that money talks.

4) He has the entire army and security establishment in his pocket and they are all his "boys". Remember those army officers once tagged "IBB Boys"?  Most of them are now in the inner recesses of govt/political office:

*The Senate President David Mark (you know - the guy who is third in line to the presidency) is one of IBB's closest confidants. During the June 12 crisis, insiders have testified that IBB saw him as his chosen successor.

*Brigadiers Tunde Ogbeha, Raji Rasaki, Tanko Ayuba and John Shagaya are Senators.

*Throughout IBB's tenure, only 5 officers survived his purges throught his regime. One of them is Admiral Murtala Nyako. He is now the Gov of Adamawa State and his wife is a senior judge.

*Colonel Oyinlola was one his Mil Govs. He is now the Gov of Osun State.

*The current boss of the Nigerian armed forces used to be IBB's pilot.

*The current and prior National Security Adviser are his "boys".

I could go on forever with such examples. Do you think these people were positioned in such high offices coincidentally?  Do you think that people who owe their wealth, power, status, position and influence entirely to IBB's patronage will sit by and let him be disgraced w/o an almighty fight?

Did you ask this question with the hope to get answers from people or did you do so just to tell us what you think about IBB?

If you even take time to understand your question you will see the need to accommodate views and opinions you do not expressly agree with?

In my opinion, nothing will happen. While he will be in jail some of the people you mentioned may even be kicked out of their positions or offices by the president and as you acknowledged in your response money talks and it will be strange for you to claim that IBB is probably the richest Nigerian alive.

Based on what?

We are tired of assumptions, conjectures and theories. Let us for once leave sensationalism at the door step and base our debates on facts, verifiable facts, logic and common sense.

Unless of course you have access to information none of us here can boast of. If you are talking as an insider I will perhaps see reason with your position.

But as to the question proper - NOTHING.

All it takes to make a powerful person leave or vacate an office is a presidential order. From EFCC to IGP to CBN to even the 5 bank CEOs it is the same process. Some powerful governors cannot even freely visit their states today because the incumbent governors are having problems with them.

He dies in jail

Nothing will happen after he is arrested, heaven will not fall, IBB is influential true, but nothing will happen, Nigeria is a very complex country, there are too many competing cliques or groups,

If people like ibb are arrested,nigeria will be on the real road to recovery.There is no way new scores can be settled while the old scores lies untouched.

We have to back date the plundering and looting back to the first republic,people like awolowo will one way or the other be culprits,posthumous trials.

[size=14pt]Speedbird Big Bee One, descend and maintain flight level 11-zero, turn left heading 273 and call Nairaland control tower for vectors to intercept the ILS localizer approach.[/size]

Road to redemption

BIGB1 to the rescue. come save your father in law