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Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] - Politics - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] (3325 Views)

New Year Speech: Buhari Was Not Accurately Quoted In News Report - APC Reacts / Lagos-ibadan Rail Project To Start This Month — News Report. / Venezuelan Government And Economy On Brink Of Total Collapse (2) (3) (4)

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Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Kenai: 5:56pm On Aug 23, 2016
Ehem... I no talk anything oh. I just dey render am as I see am...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303531204579208322842825640
Screenshot Credit: Tunji Andrews (@TunjiAndrews)
*whistles and walks off*

5 Likes 4 Shares

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by crestedaguiyi: 6:02pm On Aug 23, 2016
How did Venezuela end afterwards

7 Likes

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by LoveMachine(m): 6:12pm On Aug 23, 2016
Ouch.

1 Like

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by BenBruce4Presdt(f): 6:16pm On Aug 23, 2016
Ours would definitely be worse since our president is also a murderer...

13 Likes 1 Share

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by plaetton: 6:18pm On Aug 23, 2016
Lol.

To be forewarned is to be forearmed.

4 Likes 1 Share

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Bethelwealthy(m): 6:22pm On Aug 23, 2016
...................now we know where the idea came from and what their ends was. This man is never innovative, no sponteneity.

3 Likes

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Nobody: 6:27pm On Aug 23, 2016
All it shows is that Nigeria and Venezuela are both oil dependent nations....whose economies rise and fall with the oil price.

3 Likes

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by MadamExcellency: 6:31pm On Aug 23, 2016
Quakertellicus1:
All it shows is that Nigeria and Venezuela are both oil dependent nations....whose economies rise and fall with the oil price.



Stop the joke

Venezuela is running a socialist system while Nigeria is a fully operational capitalist system.

There is no reason to compare apple (Venezuela) and orange (Nigeria) in political/economic administration

14 Likes 1 Share

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Nobody: 6:38pm On Aug 23, 2016
MadamExcellency:



Stop the joke

Venezuela is running a socialist government while Nigeria is a full operational capitalist government.

There is no reason to compare apple (Venezuela) and orange (Nigeria) in political/economic governance.

Well....

1,Nigeria is running a mixed economy, not a capitalist one.

2.All oil producers are in deep trobule right now. When you hook up your economy to oil....it goes up with the oil price, and goes down with it.

3.Venezuela and Nigeria back in the 1970's had oil boom. That was the time when Venezuela built up a city metroline system in its capital.

4.China is also a socilaist economy....yet because they are an industrial nation....they have the cash to splash.(Once upon a time, China was behind Sierra leone in 1973. Now...it is ahead. Difference...China industrialized, Sierra Leone kept on relying on gold and diamonds and agric...whose prices drop and fall .Like oil).

5.You people think I am defending APC. Far from it. APC's response right now shouldbe this...they have to spend more on the lights and the transport so that they can get us to industrial level. Like China and South Korea which was behind Senegal in 1960.

6.To sum up.....both countries have a big problem,....and it is resource dependency.Nigeria in particular has had a resource dependent economy for years. We use the high prices to fool ourselves into thinking that we are a rich economy. Which is why if oil prices go up tomorrow...I won't be shouting Sai Buhari....but Industrialization ,Buhari.

12 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by 4Play(m): 6:46pm On Aug 23, 2016
Quakertellicus1:
All it shows is that Nigeria and Venezuela are both oil dependent nations....whose economies rise and fall with the oil price.


This is hogwash. Venezuela was in economic crisis long before Nigeria - this article dates back to 2013. The attempt to excuse the shambolic policy ineptitude that has worsened our economic problems by comparing us to Venezuela is a sorry display of boneheaded propaganda. A cursory look on the internet will show that Venezuela's recession predate the recent collapse in oil prices:


If there were an award for the messiest year in Latin America, Venezuela would win it by a landslide. Currency problems, drastic shortages and political wars marked a 2013 that began with the death of Comandante Hugo Chávez in early March. Since then, successor and current President Nicolás Maduro has been trying to carry on his legacy at any cost -- and many fear that is bringing the country close to collapse.

Whether Maduro's failing policies or the so-called “economic war” Maduro is accusing his opposition of waging are to blame, Venezuela entered a recession in 2013. GDP suffered a 0.4 percent contraction this year, according to estimates by Trading Economics. This, in a year when Venezuela dealt with 42 percent inflation, and the Venezuelan bolívar dropped 32 percent against the U.S. dollar
[url]
http://www.ibtimes.com/venezuelas-economy-will-continue-suffer-2014-analysts-predict-further-recession-1535334[/url]

3 Likes

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by MadamExcellency: 7:09pm On Aug 23, 2016
Quakertellicus1:

[s]
Well....

1,Nigeria is running a mixed economy, not a capitalist one.

2.All oil producers are in deep trobule right now. When you hook up your economy to oil....it goes up with the oil price, and goes down with it.

3.Venezuela and Nigeria back in the 1970's had oil boom. That was the time when Venezuela built up a city metroline system in its capital.

4.China is also a socilaist economy....yet because they are an industrial nation....they have the cash to splash.(Once upon a time, China was behind Sierra leone in 1973. Now...it is ahead. Difference...China industrialized, Sierra Leone kept on relying on gold and diamonds and agric...whose prices drop and fall .Like oil).

5.You people think I am defending APC. Far from it. APC's response right now shouldbe this...they have to spend more on the lights and the transport so that they can get us to industrial level. Like China and South Korea which was behind Senegal in 1960.

6.To sum up.....both countries have a big problem,....and it is resource dependency.Nigeria in particular has had a resource dependent economy for years. We use the high prices to fool ourselves into thinking that we are a rich economy. Which is why if oil prices go up tomorrow...I won't be shouting Sai Buhari....but Industrialization ,Buhari.[/s]

Nigeria has no ground for comparison with Venezuela in all ramifications except for those who are sycophantically blind and chooses failure for a benchmark.

Nigeria was until a year ago on top list of foreign investment destination on the globe but this government came and shattered the enabling environment.

Venezuelan's foreign reserve is $15 billion while Nigerians living abroad remitted $21 billion in Forex to Nigeria in 2015 alone which could've been up to $50 billion if not for CBN failed monetary policy against dollar account.

Stop the excuses of Oil this and Oil that.

11 Likes

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by NoreenUG(f): 7:10pm On Aug 23, 2016
4Play:


This is hogwash. Venezuela was in economic crisis long before Nigeria - this article dates back to 2013. The attempt to excuse the shambolic policy ineptitude that has worsened our economic problems by comparing us to Venezuela is a sorry display of boneheaded propaganda. A cursory look on the internet will show that Venezuela's recession predate the recent collapse in oil prices:


[url]
http://www.ibtimes.com/venezuelas-economy-will-continue-suffer-2014-analysts-predict-further-recession-1535334[/url]

You should know that fellow by now.
His old ID is bushdoc9919, if I'm correct. He has a habit of writing endless long-winding pseudo-intellectual claptrap nobody bothers to read.
I guess it's his own way of trying hard to justify his vote for Buhari even in the face of failure.

On to better things.

8 Likes 1 Share

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by anungangampu: 7:16pm On Aug 23, 2016
MadamExcellency:


Nigeria has no ground for comparison with Venezuela in all ramifications except for those who are sycophantically blind and chooses failure for a benchmark.

Nigeria was until a year ago on top list of foreign investment destination on the globe but this government came and shattered the enabling environment.

Venezuelan's foreign reserve is $15 billion while Nigerians living abroad remitted $21 billion in Forex to Nigeria in 2015 alone which could've been unto $50 billion if not for CBN failed monetary policy against dollar account.

Stop the excuses of Oil this and Oil that.

1 Like

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Nobody: 7:19pm On Aug 23, 2016
MadamExcellency:


Nigeria has no ground for comparison with Venezuela in all ramifications except for those who are sycophantically blind and chooses failure for a benchmark.

Nigeria was until a year ago on top list of foreign investment destination on the globe but this government came and shattered the enabling environment.

Venezuelan's foreign reserve is $15 billion while Nigerians living abroad remitted $21 billion in Forex to Nigeria in 2015 alone which could've been unto $50 billion if not for CBN failed monetary policy against dollar account.

Stop the excuses of Oil this and Oil that.

Read my whole piece again....slowly.

Keep in mind that Okonjo Iweala was saying that we should expect hard times by 2015....in the event of a GEJ victory.

We are a Dutch diseased economy.

For more info...this article is good....And it was wrote in 2004.

Managing the Dutch disease in Nigeria

5 Likes 1 Share

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Nobody: 7:20pm On Aug 23, 2016
NoreenUG:


You should know that fellow by now.
His old ID is bushdoc9919, if I'm correct. He has a habit of writing endless long-winding pseudo-intellectual claptrap nobody bothers to read.
I guess it's his own way of trying hard to justify his vote for Buhari even in the face of failure.

On to better things.

First...am QT.

Second....I ain't justifying anything. Infact.....the sum of my message is simple.

Anyone running Nigeria has to get us off oil. That is why I am not happy with the APC too...they are not making efforts to get us off oil.

It is going to be hard work.

And I am Quaker tellicus by the by.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Trut(m): 7:24pm On Aug 23, 2016
The nigga need absolute power to turn Nigeria economy like Venezuela

1 Like

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Nobody: 7:25pm On Aug 23, 2016
4Play:


This is hogwash. Venezuela was in economic crisis long before Nigeria - this article dates back to 2013. The attempt to excuse the shambolic policy ineptitude that has worsened our economic problems by comparing us to Venezuela is a sorry display of boneheaded propaganda. A cursory look on the internet will show that Venezuela's recession predate the recent collapse in oil prices:


[url]
http://www.ibtimes.com/venezuelas-economy-will-continue-suffer-2014-analysts-predict-further-recession-1535334[/url]

1.Venezuela is a socialist economy that imported everything....even much of the toilet roll used in Venezuela was imported.

Nigeria,despite the mess we were in, still made most of its toilet roll...back in 2013.

2.Yes, APC is having a shambolic economic policy. But not in the way you people think.

APC is not facing the fact that we are a poor nation...and that we should set about getting industrial,instead of waiting for oil to rise again.

Which is what I am saying....but most of you here seem to think I am attacking PDP again....when really I am putting pressure on the APC government to shape up.

In my opinion, whoever takes over in 2019.....has to get us off oil. Ditto for whoever is in power now...ie the APC....by cutting waste, fighting corruption, and funding power and transport excessively, alongside technical education.

That is what I want my government to do.

5 Likes

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Nobody: 7:43pm On Aug 23, 2016
Am sorry for posting here several times....but it seems people are still so pained by the last election to get my points.

Nigeria is a Dutch diseased nation....and what we are experiencing is the effect of the Immersing growth syndrome...

To define it.

In an extreme case, the Dutch Disease can lead to "Immersing Growth" syndrome - a situation where increase in the output of exported commodity by a country leads to a deterioration of the country's welfare . This happens when the effect of export-led growth on a country's terms of trade is strong enough to more than offset the direct benefits of growth

Keep in mind that from 2011-13 Nigeria was a big economy. We were ''prosperous'' then in 2015 we went down the drain. Now...part of our problem is that we did not keep on saving during that time...but in my mind, GEJ saving or no would not have made any difference.

We have, since independence depended on the revenue, first from selling agric and mining products,and nowadays on oil. These goods have prices that are not controlled by us or set by us. (OPEC is becoming irrelevant). And oil is falling because everyone is an oil producer.

To explain Nigeria...and Venezuela's condition....

Where crude oil (and gas) is the booming export sector, the non-oil export sector may be crowded out by the oil sector and the non-tradable goods sector of the economy. This can happen when the oil revenue windfall increases domestic demand for non-tradable goods and pushes up domestic prices leading to an appreciation of the real exchange rate which in turn reduces the competitiveness of the non-oil export sector. This will in turn lead to a reduction in non-oil exports in both quantum and value terms. The oil windfall may also lead to movement of the factors of production in the economy. For instance, capital and labor (and land) may shift from the non-oil export sector to the oil sector (in order to maintain or increase reserves and production) and the non-tradable goods sector (to take advantage of the growing domestic demand). This explains why the increase in oil prices and the subsequent oil revenue windfall in many oil-exporting countries have tended to depress their non-oil export sector while at the same time generating a boom in both the oil and the non-tradable goods sectors. With capital and labor shifting from the non-oil export sector to the oil-sector and non-traded goods sector, firms in the non-oil export sector are forced to either close down or reduce their scale of operation. The boom in the oil and non-traded goods sector increases the demand for imported goods. This may not be a problem in the short-term so long as the country has enough foreign exchange to pay for the imports. The depression in the non-oil export sector and the boom in the other two sectors have medium to long term implications for the economy because the oil windfall will not be permanent given the volatility, unpredictability and exhaustibility of crude oil. For instance, if there is a decline in oil prices and oil revenue, the lagging and collapsing non-oil export sector will not be able to compensate for the drop in oil revenue while domestic demand for the non-traded goods and imports remain sticky. Consequently, the country will be forced to borrow from the international financial market to compensate for the decline in oil revenue. Over time, external debts will increase and so will the debt service obligations. Even when oil prices go up later and there is another round of oil windfall, it is difficult to correct the earlier damage or distortions created by the initial or previous oil windfall. In some cases, the oil exporting country may be forced to adopt some form of structural adjustment program (SAP) to correct such distortions or imbalances. Some of these SAPs are painful and may increase the prevalence, depth and severity of poverty.

See the problem.

That is why I am angry with PDP....not because GEJ is an Ijaw man,or because Christians were denying the North their rights (and i am a Christian and a Southerner to boot)...or because PDP failed to save, but because PDP did not make getting Nigeria industrial a major priority....by fixing our power generation (and I am looking at OBJ and Yaradua...at least GEJ faced facts,and did try something), spending more on educaiton, especially technical education,and also doing far more about transport.

We should have used the years of plenty well.

So,anyone calling me a PDP or APC supporter misses the point.

All I want is our government , whoever they may be.....to end our reliance on oil,. agric etc. Because it is the reason why our economy is so vulnerable and why we have no permanent jobs, and no permanent everything.

That is my manifesto. Nigeria must free itself from resource dependency. And not Nigeria, Africa. And left to me,if APC does not take steps to do that...I think they should go in 2019. And if PDP, or any other party does not take steps to do that, then we must keep voting them out until we get a leadership that lives and breathes industrial self reliance. We cannot remain under the IMF's thumb.

Thanks and good night.

6 Likes

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by MadamExcellency: 7:46pm On Aug 23, 2016
Quakertellicus1:


Read my whole piece again....slowly.

Keep in mind that Okonjo Iweala was saying that we should expect hard times by 2015....in the event of a GEJ victory.

We are a Dutch diseased economy.

For more info...this article is good....And it was wrote in 2004.

Managing the Dutch disease in Nigeria

There was one thing I learnt from Sales Experts from some multinational companies in 2006. Their companies representatives reported some high degree of counterfeiting of their products and wanted the parent companies to arrange massive arrest of both the counterfeiters and their accomplices but this they rejected for a singular reason that creating a wider publicity that their products are being counterfeited will kill their brands hence they chose to do it underground and it worked like magic.

Buhari has no experience of image management hence he destroyed Nigeria's image abroad and exposed every joint venture between Nigerians and foreigners to total collapse.

Why are foreigners running away when we are looking for them to come and invest?

Buhari's archaic and expired form of running democracy is the problem. He hates rich businessmen, entrepreneurs and employers of labours and wouldn't want anything to do with them hence no policy to encourage them.

9 Likes 3 Shares

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Kenny4lyfe(m): 7:46pm On Aug 23, 2016
Emergency powers made in Venezuela!

lobatan!

And zombies be like....

2 Likes

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Nobody: 7:53pm On Aug 23, 2016
MadamExcellency:


There was one thing I learnt from Sales Experts from some multinational companies in 2006. Their companies representatives reported some high degree of counterfeiting of their products and wanted the parent companies to arrange massive arrest of both the counterfeiters and their accomplices but this they rejected for a singular reason that creating a wider publicity that their products are being counterfeited will kill their brands hence they chose to do it underground and it worked like magic.

Buhari has no experience of image management hence he destroyed Nigeria's image abroad and exposed every joint venture between Nigerians and foreigners to total collapse.

Why are foreigners running away when we are looking for them to come and invest?

Buhari's archaic and expired form of running democracy is the problem. He hates rich businessmen, entrepreneurs and employers of labours and wouldn't want anything to do with them hence no policy to encourage them.

Well, the reason why Bubu ''hates'' investors has to do with the fact that the CBN is trying to restrict forex from leaving the country.

Nigeria needs forex to prevent the naira from falling down drastically.....so that we do not end up with N10000000 to $1.

At the end of the day....thanks to the fall in oil price...we are no longer the masters of our destiny. We need oil to be at $123 per barrel right now....so that we can have enough forex flowing to attract investors...and keep the naira buffered.

That is why I rave against oil. Really, oil reliance is the enemy....not GEJ, PMB or anyone.

4 Likes

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Femich18(m): 8:13pm On Aug 23, 2016
MadamExcellency:



Stop the joke

Venezuela is running a socialist system while Nigeria is a fully operational capitalist system.

There is no reason to compare apple (Venezuela) and orange (Nigeria) in political/economic administration
Thank you jare. You just spilled my mind out. Don't mind that illetrate

1 Like

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Femich18(m): 8:15pm On Aug 23, 2016
MadamExcellency:



Stop the joke

Venezuela is running a socialist system while Nigeria is a fully operational capitalist system.

There is no reason to compare apple (Venezuela) and orange (Nigeria) in political/economic administration
Don't mind that mofo. Even if we are running the same system doesn't mean ours won't work because theirs didnt

2 Likes

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Trut(m): 8:25pm On Aug 23, 2016
Kenny4lyfe:
Emergency powers made in Venezuela!
lobatan!
And zombies be like....
No be small emergency power made in Venezuela ooo grin cheesy

1 Like

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by prof800(m): 8:44pm On Aug 23, 2016
Nigerian democracy is not ripe enough.

1 Like

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by omohayek: 9:21pm On Aug 23, 2016
Quakertellicus1:

That is why I am angry with PDP....not because GEJ is an Ijaw man,or because Christians were denying the North their rights (and i am a Christian and a Southerner to boot)...or because PDP failed to save, but because PDP did not make getting Nigeria industrial a major priority....by fixing our power generation (and I am looking at OBJ and Yaradua...at least GEJ faced facts,and did try something), spending more on educaiton, especially technical education,and also doing far more about transport.

We should have used the years of plenty well.

So,anyone calling me a PDP or APC supporter misses the point.

All I want is our government , whoever they may be.....to end our reliance on oil,. agric etc. Because it is the reason why our economy is so vulnerable and why we have no permanent jobs, and no permanent everything.

That is my manifesto. Nigeria must free itself from resource dependency. And not Nigeria, Africa. And left to me,if APC does not take steps to do that...I think they should go in 2019. And if PDP, or any other party does not take steps to do that, then we must keep voting them out until we get a leadership that lives and breathes industrial self reliance. We cannot remain under the IMF's thumb.

Thanks and good night.

Your point about the negative effects of dutch disease on Nigeria's economic growth is a strong one, but unfortunately it is unlikely to make much impact on a forum like this one, where blind ethnocentrism and reflexive political partisanship substitute for any semblance of actual thought.

The depressing reality is that even "educated" Nigerians are almost totally economically illiterate, and that goes for the vast majority of the political elite as well, including both GEJ and Buhari; the closest Nigeria has ever gotten to a ruler with some idea of economics was Obasanjo, who ruined his own legacy by selecting weak and ineffective successors like the already dying Yar'adua and GEJ. Given that the only thing Nigerians care about in their politics is whether or not a candidate is "our son", and given the average Nigerian's belief that any and every economic problem can be solved instantaneously by government action (and without costing anything in either taxes or end user fees), how can a competent person ever rise to the top in this country?

Since Okonjo-Iweala's departure, just about the only active politician left in Nigeria who has given any indication of understanding how modern economies work, and what it takes to draw business investment and encourage industry, is Babatunde Fashola. Unfortunately for Nigeria, the odds of him ever sitting in Aso Rock are virtually none: the northerners still want "their turn" with another 4 years of Buhari's incompetence until 2023, after which the SE and the SS will no doubt be clamoring for "their turn" too, and at no time in this process will either having a coherent political vision or a demonstrated competence play any role in who gets selected. Most Nigerians would rather be ruled badly by one of "their own" than well by someone else.

6 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Emekamex(m): 9:37pm On Aug 23, 2016
It goes to show that a president who cannot revive his country's economy with normal power will definitely shatter it with absolute power.

2 Likes

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by rusher14: 9:44pm On Aug 23, 2016
Quakertellicus1:
Am sorry for posting here several times....but it seems people are still so pained by the last election to get my points.

Nigeria is a Dutch diseased nation....and what we are experiencing is the effect of the Immersing growth syndrome...

To define it.
D


Keep in mind that from 2011-13 Nigeria was a big economy. We were ''prosperous'' then in 2015 we went down the drain. Now...part of our problem is that we did not keep on saving during that time...but in my mind, GEJ saving or no would not have made any difference.

We have, since independence depended on the revenue, first from selling agric and mining products,and nowadays on oil. These goods have prices that are not controlled by us or set by us. (OPEC is becoming irrelevant). And oil is falling because everyone is an oil producer.

To explain Nigeria...and Venezuela's condition....

Where crude oil (and gas) is the booming export sector, the non-oil export sector may be crowded out by the oil sector and the non-tradable goods sector of the economy. This can happen when the oil revenue windfall increases domestic demand for non-tradable goods and pushes up domestic prices leading to an appreciation of the real exchange rate which in turn reduces the competitiveness of the non-oil export sector. This will in turn lead to a reduction in non-oil exports in both quantum and value terms. The oil windfall may also lead to movement of the factors of production in the economy. For instance, capital and labor (and land) may shift from the non-oil export sector to the oil sector (in order to maintain or increase reserves and production) and the non-tradable goods sector (to take advantage of the growing domestic demand). This explains why the increase in oil prices and the subsequent oil revenue windfall in many oil-exporting countries have tended to depress their non-oil export sector while at the same time generating a boom in both the oil and the non-tradable goods sectors. With capital and labor shifting from the non-oil export sector to the oil-sector and non-traded goods sector, firms in the non-oil export sector are forced to either close down or reduce their scale of operation. The boom in the oil and non-traded goods sector increases the demand for imported goods. This may not be a problem in the short-term so long as the country has enough foreign exchange to pay for the imports. The depression in the non-oil export sector and the boom in the other two sectors have medium to long term implications for the economy because the oil windfall will not be permanent given the volatility, unpredictability and exhaustibility of crude oil. For instance, if there is a decline in oil prices and oil revenue, the lagging and collapsing non-oil export sector will not be able to compensate for the drop in oil revenue while domestic demand for the non-traded goods and imports remain sticky. Consequently, the country will be forced to borrow from the international financial market to compensate for the decline in oil revenue. Over time, external debts will increase and so will the debt service obligations. Even when oil prices go up later and there is another round of oil windfall, it is difficult to correct the earlier damage or distortions created by the initial or previous oil windfall. In some cases, the oil exporting country may be forced to adopt some form of structural adjustment program (SAP) to correct such distortions or imbalances. Some of these SAPs are painful and may increase the prevalence, depth and severity of poverty.

See the problem.

That is why I am angry with PDP....not because GEJ is an Ijaw man,or because Christians were denying the North their rights (and i am a Christian and a Southerner to boot)...or because PDP failed to save, but because PDP did not make getting Nigeria industrial a major priority....by fixing our power generation (and I am looking at OBJ and Yaradua...at least GEJ faced facts,and did try something), spending more on educaiton, especially technical education,and also doing far more about transport.

We should have used the years of plenty well.

So,anyone calling me a PDP or APC supporter misses the point.

All I want is our government , whoever they may be.....to end our reliance on oil,. agric etc. Because it is the reason why our economy is so vulnerable and why we have no permanent jobs, and no permanent everything.

That is my manifesto. Nigeria must free itself from resource dependency. And not Nigeria, Africa. And left to me,if APC does not take steps to do that...I think they should go in 2019. And if PDP, or any other party does not take steps to do that, then we must keep voting them out until we get a leadership that lives and breathes industrial self reliance. We cannot remain under the IMF's thumb.

Thanks and good night.



You keep saying the truth but you cannot force a man who's pretending to sleep to awake.

These guys know all what you are saying is the truth but they would insist on the contrary.

Agriculture and processing of agro products, mining (in the short time) and essentially, technical education should be made a priority.

By now we should be using software to design school bags and shoes. Processing cashew nuts and avocado turning them into tasty snacks and ointments respectively.

Exporting cotton and yarns. Our textile industry should be flying.

Anyway let them keep thinking Nigeria is about north and south, PDP and APC, Rice and Garri.

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Dcomrade(m): 11:01pm On Aug 23, 2016
undecided

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by Nobody: 12:29am On Aug 24, 2016
Quakertellicus1 and omohayek,thank you gentlemen for your contributions tonight. For the first time l encountered people with good knowledge of economics on this forum.
I am always taken aback by the total lack of understanding,of even the most basic economic principles,exhibited by most of these posters. But I never argue with them,l just let them dwell in their ignorance.

4 Likes 1 Share

Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by NoreenUG(f): 6:48pm On Aug 26, 2016
...
Re: Deja-vu: Does This 2013 Venezuelan News Report Look Familliar? [PIC] by 4Play(m): 6:22am On Aug 27, 2016
Quakertellicus1:


Read my whole piece again....slowly.

Keep in mind that Okonjo Iweala was saying that we should expect hard times by 2015....in the event of a GEJ victory.

We are a Dutch diseased economy.

For more info...this article is good....And it was wrote in 2004.

Managing the Dutch disease in Nigeria

The problem with your post which I took issue with is this: if you have been on Nairaland long enough you will notice that the PDP/APC propagandists who litter this forum seem to get circulated talking points (themes/stories) which they spout relentlessly for a period until the next set of talking points. The most recent talking point from the APC side is that the Nigerian government should be congratulated for its economic management since, despite being as oil dependent as Venezuela, Nigeria has not suffered the economic collapse that Venezuela has. This is, of course, nonsense as I pointed out as Venezuela's problems are deeper and predate the current oil collapse. Despite your slight backtracking on this thread, I can see you subscribe to this disingenous analogy to Venezuela.

I will make a few other points. Yes, Nigeria has a certain oil dependency which arises in 2 respects - oil is the main source of government revenues and, more importantly, the main source of forex. However, the oil price slump alone does not explain the scale of the naira's and the economy's collapse. Look at the naira's performance in 2016 alone - at a time when other commodity-dependent emerging market currencies have rallied against the dollar. In reality, what we are seeing is the result of major policy missteps or inaction (the main culprit being the decision to maintain a fixed exchange rate which has now, thankfully, been largely reversed). My main bugbear is that people who beat this oil drum relentlessly are either uninformed or being disingenous - they are trying to mask what has been at heart an exemplar of economic mismanagement. By doing this, they inhibit the capacity of Nigerians to learn valuable lessons for the future.

This brings me to the issue of the Dutch disease. The essence of it is the tendency for an oil/commodity boom to cause an appreciation in real exchange rates (i.e., inflation-adjusted)rendering the non-oil/commodity export sector largely uncompetitive. I will use a simplified illustration:

I set up a cocoa farm to export cocoa. At inception, the naira exchanges for 197 naira to $1. If the costs (fuel, labour, fertiliser, e.t.c) of running the farm is circa N180 million and I sell $1 million worth of cocoa in the first period, I should get N197 million for a profit margin of N17 million before tax. Supposing the government decides to fix the exchange rate at N197 to $1 whilst inflation is running rampant. If my costs increase due to inflation from N180 million to N198 million (assuming just 10% inflation), my margin will be squeezed to the point where, unless I find a way of cutting costs, my business is no longer viable.

Though not strictly speaking how the Dutch disease works, what the above illustration shows is that a policy decision to fix the exchange rate, as the present government did, increases the problem of oil dependency by making diversification to non-oil exports challenging. The Dutch disease was a major problem in the 1970s as we maintained a fixed exchange regime for years, but not really much of an issue since the post-Abacha period. In contrast, the period from 1999 had witnessed substantial growth in non-oil exports. See excerpts below:

Represented by the Director, Development Finance of the CBN, Dr Mudashiru Olaitan, Emefiele blamed the decline of non oil revenue on the low level of loans to exporters which invariably contributed to the decline in non oil export revenue receipts from $10.53billion in 2014 to $4.39billion in 2015.

Source: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/01/cbn-blames-declining-non-oil-revenue-on-low-export-loans/

Non-oil exports recorded improvements with aggregate export value increasing continuously from N23,327.5million (US$287million) in 1996 to N29, 163.3 million (US$357.2 million) in 1997; and further to N34, 070.2 million (US$406.5 million) in1998. The CBN (1998) attributed the sustained increase in non-oil export to the liberalization of the foreign exchange policy environment by the federal government, and better operating conditions for Nigeria’s semi-manufacturing sector.
[url]
http://thejournalofbusiness.org/index.php/site/article/viewFile/434/337[/url]

An increase from circa $400m to circa $10bn in non-oil exports in the midst of an oil boom is not reconciliable with the notion of a Dutch disease plaguing Nigeria. In the 1970s by contrast, non-oil exports contracted and with it our groundnut pyramids. Another factor to be weighed is that diversification of forex revenues may also come from capital inflow (like FDI and portfolio inflow) which grew significantly in the post-Abacha period. This declined following the present government's hamfisted attempts to fix the exchange rate making us even more reliant on oil exports as a source of forex.

In reality, what we are experiencing in Nigeria is that policy ineptitude has made what would have been a difficult but manageable growth slowdown, arising from the oil slump, into a painful economic rout. Even if Nigeria was not an oil producing state, an attempt to fight a currency adjustment via a fixed exchange regime would have still produced an economic rout (arguably more so as we would likely have had a larger stock of foreign capital). By simply mouthing off about oil dependency, you are helping mask the government's culpability and doing a disservice to Nigerians for whom economic hardship can be a matter of life and death.

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