larion:
Oh no

The Chinese are buying Africa
How can they provide 85% of the funds.

The rail is good, but what you can't afford, you can't afford.

That rail project when completed (that's if it is) can never fund or repay the loan in the next 20year.

With our poor maintenance culture, that train will work for 5 years and die, but the loan will still be alive.

LISTEN TO ME!

For those who care to know, the Chinese are naturally wicked, they are over populated and need people out of their land.

Come 2050 when the loan they have given us in Africa becomes too much for us to pay, they gonna simply tell us to shift from our land (Africa). They gonna tell is to give them space.

Its not only in Nigeria, m currently working in Guinea, and the Chinese have taken over. They give handouts (loans) and set up silly projects while bringing their people in, in mass.

They responsible for all sorts, illegal mining , illegal fishing and the rest, the UN once complained of there illegal fishing operations but now they have d backing of the Guinean government after getting these loans

Wise up Africa! Be Wise!!

Shallow way of thinking...

7lives:


At last a sensible post, backward bench warming flatrons everywhere, move dem no go gree, some else is moving they complain and these are suppose to be the best set of brains since Einstein?.

Azzin bruv I tire.

When I saw pics of that massive flyover in kano I was impressed, this project further shows they're serious about availing the right infrastructure to the residents not recycling wasteful projects like rochas did in imo state with new taxis.

Instead of them to be optimistic and pressure their govts into pushing naija out of analogue to the modern age they're criticising the project.

U need the see the progress being made in the lagos rail project bro... you will concur devt is good.

Kudos to the gov

LorDBolton:


Lols any finance grad knows efficient markets n capm model and other investment appraisal techniques ...funny u mention these things to justify ur dumb question.

Lemme repost them once again

#1- it makes no economic sense, if it did govt will NOT be involved .

Why will govt not be involved especially when a project makes economic sense? Do I need to explain that one to an Ivy League graduate? Like seriously??

#2- kano state govt should focus on rails LEADING TO SOUTHERN PORTS

Since you're obviously ignorant I attached a map of nigeria to reset your brain, look at that map and tell me how a STATE GOVT like kano in the far north can embark on an interstate railway network leading to port cities like lagos, calabar, ph??

Are u even aware the FG is embarking/construction on the kano-lagos rail is ongoing?

Like seriously like a prof once told me, the problem with nigeria isn't illiteracy or lack of exposure...it's deliberate ignorance.

A state govt is working on an INTRA-CITY rail network to make movement of goods and persons faster, safer and much more comfortable, you're here telling me a project which I can bet you have no facts about except what's posted here in a state i'm sure you've not been to doesn't make economic sense?


If it made economic sense GOVT WILL NOT BE INVOLVED? Yet u claim to have experience in the UK? A place where the city councils are "fully involved" in everything from simply granting approvals to partnering/contributing funds to projects?

FYI transportation is a critical element in business & social cycles especially in Africa which is still far behind in modernising this sector.

South Africa that has the most advanced rail network in Africa, it's publicly owned with few private rail companies, so have u even tried to find out whether the laws guiding nigeria's railway sector allow fully PRIVATE RAILWAY FIRMS to operate yet?

all these crap on efficient markets abi capm is to impress people who have no finance/investment background & is laughable...do u have the data to compute it? The govt n chinese investors that identified those routes doesn't your brain tell you they've carried out the necessary calculations & due-dilligence?


I've showed u why those two questions reek of illiteracy... 'm done with you.

Weren't you supposed to have "waltzed away" already, cretin? Since all the things I mentioned are second nature to you, I'm sure you can come up with lots of highly cited research indicating that government intervention in railways is justifiable ... And while you're at it, I'm sure you'll also be able to explain why countries like Britain and Japan have privatized their national rail networks over the last 30 years! Don't forget to tell us all about how the British government built the UK's railways in the mid-19th century, or how the likes of Cornelius Vanderbilt, Jay Gould and JP Morgan were actually government officials!

Like I said, you're nothing but another semi-literate ignoramus who thinks slinging insults at length can cover up a total lack of understanding of what's at issue. "Waltz away" already, and leave people who have a clue to carry on a meaningful discussion. No one with sensible things to say needs to resort to childish rubbish about "your brain" and so forth.

aresssa:




Shallow way of thinking...

Goodluck to you Mr Deepwaters

omohayek:


Maybe such an expectation is outrageous in Nigeria, but it definitely isn't the case in the USA and the UK; contracts like this are expected to be reached under public bidding, with the necessary details of the bids available for scrutiny. That's the only way to avoid politicians from feather-bedding such contracts to enrich themselves - and even then one still occasionally has corruption scandals relating to the issuance of public contracts.

My concern here is why the government's participation should be required in these rail schemes to make them financially justifiable. There are basically two scenarios to consider.

1. The risk-adjusted expected return on investment is sufficiently high to attract private investors. In this case, why does the government need to be involved? Surely private businessmen wouldn't pass up such attractive financial opportunities if they existed. Thanks to the emergence of negative yields in most of the Western world, the recurring complaint in financial news sources like the FT, Bloomberg and Reuters is of investors desperately searching the globe for attractive places to put their money.

2. The expected ROI is too low to attract private interest. In that case, surely the government would be better off taking the same money, investing it in bonds and stocks, and using the greater return from that to fund its other programs.

The point to keep in mind with all such schemes is that there is a real opportunity cost involved in them, and it isn't sufficient to simply determine whether the investments can actually pay for themselves (though that is clearly a necessity). One must also determine that there aren't alternative investments to be made which could be more profitable - it isn't rational to put one's money into a scheme returning 6% per annum if an equally risky alternative returns 9%.

All of the things I've said here apply not just to this particular proposal, but also to the Lagos BRT, the proposed Lagos-Kano and Lagos-Calabar rail lines, etc. Too often in Nigeria the assumption is that government intervention is necessary for good things to happen, but the fact is that the rail networks of other countries weren't built out using government funds - the British and American railway booms of the 19th century were entirely private-sector driven, and that is in fact where famous names like the Vanderbilts, the Goulds and JP Morgan made most of their money. Even today most railway infrastructure in America, Britain and Japan are in the hands of fully private operators, so one has to ask what makes Nigeria's case so different.

You cannot compare USA which has evolved over several years with nascent democracies such as Nigeria still trying to develop and find its own feet.

In view of this, you will find that public projects e.g. rail, roads, hospitals, airports, etc are often initiated and driven by the govt based on the realities on the ground e.g. a) to protect the public from exploitation in the hands of greedy profit driven private operators b) to fulfil election promises for such projects and to keep the elected govts relevant and popular to the ppl.
In addition, private sector investment is also often shy of such ventures due to the lack of enabling environment for them to thrive - particularly the lack of basic infrastructure: good road & transport system, water, power e.g. fuel & constant electricity; security etc.

However, recently there have been changes to this effect where the govt have allowed the private sector full participation, a typical example is the telecommunication which almost entirely privately owned; this is in addition to active privatisation of govt assets into private hands (google BPE for more details).

That is why the govt in Nigeria has now embraced collaborative schemes with the private sector such as: PPP, public private partnership; BOT, build operate and transfer etc.

No, govt involvement in such projects is not necessarily determined by whether they are financially justifiable or not.
Quite on the contrary, unlike private sector driven projects which are often profit oriented, govt may still pursue a project and subsidise it because of its social benefit/impact on the ppl against projected high production or operational cost - which a private enterprise will be unwilling to undertake.

As for the proposed rail project in Kano, I believe the Chinese company must have done its homework and envisaged a good ROI before agreeing to such contract - though I don't know where you got the notion that this in particular has a low ROI.

As for opportunity cost, I can assure you that the project, which will connect the central business hub of the commercial city of Kano with its outer productive environs, is indeed a welcomed development and I am sure the govt must have had a good look at it - recent Kano governors have been progressively leading the way - Kano citizens are definitely not complaining.

Some of the respondents in this forum are evidently reacting negatively only out of green envy, bigotry or ignorance - we are used to them.

omohayek:


Weren't you supposed to have "waltzed away" already, cretin? Since all the things I mentioned are second nature to you, I'm sure you can come up with lots of highly cited research indicating that government intervention in railways is justifiable ... And while you're at it, I'm sure you'll also be able to explain why countries like Britain and Japan have privatized their national rail networks over the last 30 years! Don't forget to tell us all about how the British government built the UK's railways in the mid-19th century, or how the likes of Cornelius Vanderbilt, Jay Gould and JP Morgan were actually government officials!

Like I said, you're nothing but another semi-literate ignoramus who thinks slinging insults at length can cover up a total lack of understanding of what's at issue. "Waltz away" already, and leave people who have a clue to carry on a meaningful discussion. No one with sensible things to say needs to resort to childish rubbish about "your brain" and so forth.

Lmao oga ade you didn't go to any ivy league school...

Your attempt to swiftly shift the post wont work.

This was your foolish statement which I have effectively rubbished come and defend this your statement below na! You imposter.

#1- it makes no economic sense, if it did govt will NOT be involved .

#2- #2- kano state govt should focus on rails LEADING TO SOUTHERN PORTS

Those 2points are probably the most ridiculous statements ever made by anyone on NL.

Once again I state boldly you didn't attend any ivy league school, definitely didn't work on Wall Street and any job you MIGHT have had in the city of London would be more rigid frontline positions not mid-mngt.

MeAboki:

You cannot compare USA which has evolved over several years with nascent democracies such as Nigeria still trying to develop and find its own feet.

Some of the respondents in this forum are evidently reacting negatively only out of green envy, bigotry or ignorance - we are used to them.

Bruv I urge u stop 'enabling' that imposter, how can someone who claims to be an Ivy league graduate compare industrialised nations with 3rd world countries?

Suggest US solutions for 3rd world countries?

Don't mind his many grammer he's a hack! I KNOW people like him they start throwing financial n economic terms upandan to impress people but in actual fact they're dull.

Ask yourself how anyone with a financial background will make these statements

#1- it makes no economic sense, if it did govt will NOT be involved .

#2- kano state govt should focus on rails LEADING TO SOUTHERN PORTS

Bros look at both statements and tell me this guy isn't both unintelligent and ignorant?

The dude has no shame.

LorDBolton:



Lmao oga ade you didn't go to any ivy league school...

Your attempt to swiftly shift the post wont work.

This was your foolish statement which I have effectively rubbished come and defend this your statement below na! You imposter.

#1- it makes no economic sense, if it did govt will NOT be involved .

#2- #2- kano state govt should focus on rails LEADING TO SOUTHERN PORTS

Those 2points are probably the most ridiculous statements ever made by anyone on NL.

Once again I state boldly you didn't attend any ivy league school, definitely didn't work on Wall Street and any job you MIGHT have had in the city of London would be more rigid frontline positions not mid-mngt.



Bruv I urge u stop 'enabling' that imposter, how can someone who claims to be an Ivy league graduate compare industrialised nations with 3rd world countries?

Suggest US solutions for 3rd world countries?

Don't mind his many grammer he's a hack! I KNOW people like him they start throwing financial n economic terms upandan to impress people but in actual fact they're dull.

Ask yourself how anyone with a financial background will make these statements

#1- it makes no economic sense, if it did govt will NOT be involved .

#2- kano state govt should focus on rails LEADING TO SOUTHERN PORTS

Bros look at both statements and tell me this guy isn't both unintelligent and ignorant?

The dude has no shame.

I also made the same observations but decided to play along - its sometimes better to allow a man enough rope to hang himself.

LorDBolton:



Lmao oga ade you didn't go to any ivy league school...

Your attempt to swiftly shift the post wont work.

This was your foolish statement which I have effectively rubbished come and defend this your statement below na! You imposter.

#1- it makes no economic sense, if it did govt will NOT be involved .

#2- #2- kano state govt should focus on rails LEADING TO SOUTHERN PORTS

Those 2points are probably the most ridiculous statements ever made by anyone on NL.

Once again I state boldly you didn't attend any ivy league school, definitely didn't work on Wall Street and any job you MIGHT have had in the city of London would be more rigid frontline positions not mid-mngt.



Bruv I urge u stop 'enabling' that imposter, how can someone who claims to be an Ivy league graduate compare industrialised nations with 3rd world countries?

Suggest US solutions for 3rd world countries?

Don't mind his many grammer he's a hack! I KNOW people like him they start throwing financial n economic terms upandan to impress people but in actual fact they're dull.

Ask yourself how anyone with a financial background will make these statements

#1- it makes no economic sense, if it did govt will NOT be involved .

#2- kano state govt should focus on rails LEADING TO SOUTHERN PORTS

Bros look at both statements and tell me this guy isn't both unintelligent and ignorant?

The dude has no shame.

Yours is a classic example of a tale "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing". You fail to address any of the inconvenient facts I raised, failed to bring to the table a single fact of your own, but think you can cover up your complete lack of substance by ramping up the insults. I think it's time one of Mynd44 or Lasticlala intervened here, as I have no time to waste trading insults with someone who has nothing worthwhile to say. My time has actual value.

omohayek:


Yours is a classic example of a tale "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing". You fail to address any of the inconvenient facts I raised, failed to bring to the table a single fact of your own, but think you can cover up your complete lack of substance by ramping up the insults. I think it's time one of Mynd44 or Lasticlala intervened here, as I have no time to waste trading insults with someone who has nothing worthwhile to say. My time has actual value.

Oga ade I will teach u basic economics and fully justify that project.

First defend this your statement mr ivy league graduate, wall Street n city of London boy.

This is what u posted that made me know you're uneducated


#1- it makes no economic sense, if it did govt will NOT be involved .

#2- #2- kano state govt should focus on rails LEADING TO SOUTHERN PORTS

Lalasticlala and mynd44 infact oga seun please help me beg him to defend /explain this statements he made.

He's an ivyleague/wall Street bros Naim know book pass all of us

Cc: meaboki I just gave him the rope, now watch what he will do with it

MeAboki:


I also made the same observations but decided to play along - its sometimes better to allow a man enough rope to hang himself.

Except I'm far from "hanging myself", and am very much alive and well. If you think the vacuous statements made by that individual constitute some sort of counter-argument against what I've written, I must say I deeply overestimated you.

Do you really mean to say that one needn't bother with calculations of risk-adjusted ROI because this rail project is so obviously worth it for the price? Would it still be worth it for 3x the price? 5x? At what valuation would you find the project outrageous, and if so, on what basis would you say "this is where we draw the line"?

Why does it make sense to spend $1.8 billion on this rail project when that same sum could save hundreds of thousands of lives through reducing infant and child mortality, or could be used to better educate any number of young children? It's not as if Kano is doing particularly well on either metric after all. How do you make that determination of what is best spent where without looking at opportunity costs? You want us to leave such questions to the state government, but fail to say why we should trust so much in the judgement of Nigerian politicians in this matter given their long records of failure over the last 56 years.

The notion that Nigeria can afford to skip out on open procurement because it is a developing country has it exactly backwards: Nigeria is more in need of such transparent practices than developed countries, precisely because of its backwardness and long history of rampant corruption. Unlike some people, I prefer to back my arguments with facts and references: here are some worthwhile resources on the subject if you're truly interested, rather than merely looking to justify a position you hold for emotional reasons.

http://www.open-contracting.org/2016/05/20/open-contracting-good-business/
http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/chapters_preview/12/2iie2334.pdf
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frederic_Boehm/publication/4988094_Corruption_in_public_contracting_auctions_The_role_of_transparency_in_bidding_processes/links/02e7e52b88446a4196000000.pdf

Finally, it's no sort of counter-argument to say that Nigeria can't be compared to 19th century Britain and America or 20th century Japan, as each of these was much poorer then than they are now. Indeed, the whole point of the exercise is to look at success stories for ideas on how things can be done better. If you have any examples of state-financed railway construction being used to drive growth by a poor and corruption-riddled country like Nigeria, I would like to see it - the post-independence history of the Nigeria Railway Corporation certainly doesn't breed confidence in the notion.

LorDBolton:


Oga ade I will teach u basic economics and fully justify that project.

First defend this your statement mr ivy league graduate, wall Street n city of London boy.

This is what u posted that made me know you're uneducated


#1- it makes no economic sense, if it did govt will NOT be involved .

#2- #2- kano state govt should focus on rails LEADING TO SOUTHERN PORTS

Lalasticlala and mynd44 infact oga seun please help me beg him to defend /explain this statements he made.

He's an ivyleague/wall Street bros Naim know book pass all of us

Cc: meaboki I just gave him the rope, now watch what he will do with it

I hardly need you to speak for me, as my words stand quite well on their own. Kindly leave me alone now and go bother someone else.

omohayek:


I hardly need you to speak for me, as my words stand quite well on their own. Kindly leave me alone now and go bother someone else.

Highly disappointed sha, looked forward to seeing you hang yourself with it.

Cc: meaboki he don run, he cannot defend his very own words, he tried shifting goal post

Told u I know his type, they like to sound smart but sieve the big grammar out and what you're left with is the most unbelievable load of crap imaginable.

Oga ivy league.. bye bye

armadeo:
Hope it won't turn to abandoned project. Cos we are skilled at that.

After this we won't hear of China railway cooperation till efcc is looking into ex governors case.

already an abandoned project, just dont worry yourself.

LorDBolton:


Highly disappointed sha, looked forward to seeing you hang yourself with it.

Cc: meaboki he don run, he cannot defend his very own words, he tried shifting goal post

Told u I know his type, they like to sound smart but sieve the big grammar out and what you're left with is the most unbelievable load of crap imaginable.

Oga ivy league.. bye bye

It's truly unfortunate that Nairaland lacks a "block" button, so one can weed out nonsense like this. Again, would one of Mynd44 and Lasticlalala please intervene here to prevent this discussion from completely succumbing to Gresham's law of internet commenters?

omohayek:


Except I'm far from "hanging myself", and am very much alive and well. If you think the vacuous statements made by that individual constitute some sort of counter-argument against what I've written, I must say I deeply overestimated you.

Do you really mean to say that one needn't bother with calculations of risk-adjusted ROI because this rail project is so obviously worth it for the price? Would it still be worth it for 3x the price? 5x? At what valuation would you find the project outrageous, and if so, on what basis would you say "this is where we draw the line"?

Why does it make sense to spend $1.8 billion on this rail project when that same sum could save hundreds of thousands of lives through reducing infant and child mortality, or could be used to better educate any number of young children? It's not as if Kano is doing particularly well on either metric after all. How do you make that determination of what is best spent where without looking at opportunity costs? You want us to leave such questions to the state government, but fail to say why we should trust so much in the judgement of Nigerian politicians in this matter given their long records of failure over the last 56 years.

The notion that Nigeria can afford to skip out on open procurement because it is a developing country has it exactly backwards: Nigeria is more in need of such transparent practices than developed countries, precisely because of its backwardness and long history of rampant corruption. Unlike some people, I prefer to back my arguments with facts and references: here are some worthwhile resources on the subject if you're truly interested, rather than merely looking to justify a position you hold for emotional reasons.

http://www.open-contracting.org/2016/05/20/open-contracting-good-business/
http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/chapters_preview/12/2iie2334.pdf
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frederic_Boehm/publication/4988094_Corruption_in_public_contracting_auctions_The_role_of_transparency_in_bidding_processes/links/02e7e52b88446a4196000000.pdf

Finally, it's no sort of counter-argument to say that Nigeria can't be compared to 19th century Britain and America or 20th century Japan, as each of these was much poorer then than they are now. Indeed, the whole point of the exercise is to look at success stories for ideas on how things can be done better. If you have any examples of state-financed railway construction being used to drive growth by a poor and corruption-riddled country like Nigeria, I would like to see it - the post-independence history of the Nigeria Railway Corporation certainly doesn't breed confidence in the notion.

My friend, I have already addressed the issue of ROI and opportunity cost in my last post; repeating them again is tiresome and counter productive.
Comparison of Nigeria, a 3rd world country and its basic problems against those of the 1st world and expecting the same solutions that worked for them would automatically work for us is both naive and unrealistic.
I do concede, however, that their ideals and standards are desirable goals we should work assiduously towards attaining.

[quote author=herzern1 post=51533152][/quote]fabricated report...go to kano and see how poor masses ar suffern for payn diffrnt sort of tax nd revenue.u wl knw dat north ar generating their funds themselves

Nigerians and I too know, some folks that have not been to Kano before will be here writing as they like. For the records.

The company that is involved in this mega project ( CRCC) is a Chinese central government owned company, they built a larger percentage of China's world class railway networks, and this project will be completed as stated,no politician will see the money as they are not bringing cash but equipments and materials, they believed in Kano owning to the success of a similar joint venture arrangement with a sister Chinese provincial government owned TEC which is constructing Kano's world class flyovers and underpass.

China is not trying to recolonized Africa or Nigeria, they are helping Africa to bridge it's infrastructure gap, and be completely independent. The money they give out is not free, but the interest rate of 1 to 2 % is something that is not possible anywhere else, what they only need in return is a stronger alliance as they are gunning to become a world superpower.

China has consistently stated that some African States will rise to become the next economic superpowers, and they are investing heavily in those countries, from 4 mega airports and railways in Nigeria, to power stations and railways in Ethiopia,railways and roads in Zambia, Airport and railways in Congo Brazzaville and the rest. China is more humane in deals with Africa than the West, and they meant well for Africa.

LorDBolton:

Now I know you're not educated. Lols

The loan repayment period for the world Bank loan (brt) is 40 years + if i'm not mistaken.

Loans are not repaid in lump sum dummy!

Before they chose those routes they would have projected earnings in relation to expenses, thus only they know the agreed amount to be paid at agreed intervals (after a moratarium period of course)

Also the 85% investment shows the chinese will have more say in the 'day-to-day' running of the firm thus it's could end up in Chinese hands till investment has been recouped or after a specified period of time. Hence the gate receipts n adverts I also added ETC cos obviously I'm not party to the deal thus I use past models.

That u cannot phantom different ways loans are repaid makes me wonder what people are taught in schools.

Show me city that transformed without debt, show me a successful business that's isn't run on debt

Arsenal's ambitious new stadium left them in huge debts which they had to repay you're here talking about how a state govt cannot repay a loan (if it' does d needful)

You deeply understands the dynamics Bro, teach them, if only they will comprehend.