I just called abok I men that buys my dollar in Abuja.

The first guy said NGN 450 to $1 initially and I called a second man thinking it was a joke and the second person said NGN 410.

To my surprise I called the first man again after 30mins and he said it's NGN 420.

This dollars I made from blogging and hopping to sell high, my adsense payment just came it yesterday 23rd.

Na waoooo.... I will wait until next week, it will surely stabilize and go up again.

How sad. You ought to rejoice that our naira has gained value despite the economy. This is what we all have been longing for abi. Have a little faith in Nigeria abeg

By nextweek it will be 300

onatisi, abeg come see something.

The aboki guys are smart. They know people will be desperate and so will offer to buy your dollars cheap. Many of them have been in the business for years so they know what will still happen.

The question is: what has really changed in the fundamentals of the Nigerian economy to justify a strengthening of the local currency? The answer is NOTHING.

What the CBN has simply done is to use some of the gain in the foreign reserves in the last 2 months to pump dollars into the market. Interventions are not new. They have been done by several central banks across the world. But the fact is: where the fundamentals have not changed, they hardly work.

The best the CBN can do is to keep pumping dollars to maintain the parallel market band at between 450 to 480/490. A country cannot spend the money it makes from exports to keep selling dollars to offset rising local demand.

The permanent solution is to reduce local demand for dollars by eliminating the main factors fuelling it. Ensure self-sufficiency in refining of products. This alone will cut demand of dollars for importation of petroleum products by 50%. Then the power sector reforms must be completely re-jigged so that by 2017/2018, we can double current generation and transmission. That way, local industries can start manufacturing again and this will reduce the need to import things like palm oil, furniture, shoes, clothing items, etc.

Make our universities and teaching hospitals centres of excellence. That way, we will not have a President spending four months in a London hospital at the country's expense, and millions of other Nigerians seeking treatment at Indian hospitals or schooling in UK, Malaysia and the US.

Until we do the needful as a country, we will remain in this cycle where the CBN has to pump dollars into the market to force down exchange rates. It is a temporary method which has an elastic limit. It cannot be sustained forever.

It's NGN 430 here today.

kabrud:
onatisi, abeg come see something.

It won't last. What they are trying to do is ,pump out the fx from the country external reserves ,to crash the price ,when the price crashes then maybe those hoarding will be forced to sell because they wont want to lose. They are trying to create panic selling on hoarders . But the main issue is ,can government sustain the pumping of millions of dollars into the economy everyday?for how long will they continue doing it ? Definitely the rate now isn't the truth value of the naira . Many billionaires now will be mopping it up as it is going down. What osinbajo is doing will lead Nigeria into more debts .

onatisi:

It won't last. What they are trying to do is ,pump out the fx from the country external reserves ,to crash the price ,when the price crashes then maybe those hoarding will be forced to sell because they wont want to lose. They are trying to create panic selling on hoarders . But the main issue is ,can government sustain the pumping of millions of dollars into the economy everyday?for how long will they continue doing it ? Definitely the rate now isn't the truth value of the naira . Many billionaires now will be mopping it up as it is going down. What osinbajo is doing will lead Nigeria into more debts .

Earlier, it won't have effect cos it can't be sustained for 10 days, and now the effect is there, but they are trying to create panic selling, hmm, nawao! Pessimism. Note, the external reserve is not touched, what actually created scarcity was that govt was trying to raise the reserve to an appreciable level and as it stands now, $30b is a bit reasonable. What is left now is that subsequent proceeds from crude sales will now be pumped into the FX market to salvage the Naira until it gets to an acceptable value, then shift to raising the reserve again and the alternation continues until a reasonable balance is achieved. Certainly, the economy is not balanced for now but this is a very good step in balancing it. Infact, with the present price of crude oil, gradually, the economy will start picking up by God's grace.

Eleyi...

O GIDI GAN OO

kabrud:


Earlier, it won't have effect cos it can't be sustained for 10 days, and now the effect is there, but they are trying to create panic selling, hmm, nawao! Pessimism. Note, the external reserve is not touched, what actually created scarcity was that govt was trying to raise the reserve to an appreciable level and as it stands now, $30b is a bit reasonable. What is left now is that subsequent proceeds from crude sales will now be pumped into the FX market to salvage the Naira until it gets to an acceptable value, then shift to raising the reserve again and the alternation continues until a reasonable balance is achieved. Certainly, the economy is not balanced for now but this is a very good step in balancing it. Infact, with the present price of crude oil, gradually, the economy will start picking up by God's grace.

I kinda agree with you. with the raising oil prices, CBN has some extra $$ to pump into the economy now. we cant focus on raising foreign reserves forever.

papiforreal:


I kinda agree with you. with the raising oil prices, CBN has some extra $$ to pump into the economy now. we cant focus on raising foreign reserves forever.

Thank you very much. The emboldened is just the summary of that my lengthy story.

If the CBN keeps it's promise of weekly supply of dollars to banks, dollar would settle around 400 Naira at parallel market.

Osinbajo For President.

stagger:
The aboki guys are smart. They know people will be desperate and so will offer to buy your dollars cheap. Many of them have been in the business for years so they know what will still happen.

The question is: what has really changed in the fundamentals of the Nigerian economy to justify a strengthening of the local currency? The answer is NOTHING.

What the CBN has simply done is to use some of the gain in the foreign reserves in the last 2 months to pump dollars into the market. Interventions are not new. They have been done by several central banks across the world. But the fact is: where the fundamentals have not changed, they hardly work.

The best the CBN can do is to keep pumping dollars to maintain the parallel market band at between 450 to 480/490. A country cannot spend the money it makes from exports to keep selling dollars to offset rising local demand.

The permanent solution is to reduce local demand for dollars by eliminating the main factors fuelling it. Ensure self-sufficiency in refining of products. This alone will cut demand of dollars for importation of petroleum products by 50%. Then the power sector reforms must be completely re-jigged so that by 2017/2018, we can double current generation and transmission. That way, local industries can start manufacturing again and this will reduce the need to import things like palm oil, furniture, shoes, clothing items, etc.

Make our universities and teaching hospitals centres of excellence. That way, we will not have a President spending four months in a London hospital at the country's expense, and millions of other Nigerians seeking treatment at Indian hospitals or schooling in UK, Malaysia and the US.

Until we do the needful as a country, we will remain in this cycle where the CBN has to pump dollars into the market to force down exchange rates. It is a temporary method which has an elastic limit. It cannot be sustained forever.

All these are text book bla bla bla. The fact that it's going down rapidly like this shows that it's speculation driving it up. Greed of the citizenry. Simple

Firstcitizen:


All these are text book bla bla bla. The fact that it's going down rapidly like this shows that it's speculation driving it up. Greed of the citizenry. Simple

See my analysis here on Nairaland last week.
https://www.nairaland.com/do_share?session=8D7E773237EF19B33765CBDDEC48000C4F1493B74EBA2B9379F6C5283FC63F31&post=53740072&redirect=%2Fstagger%2Fposts%2353740072

I don't talk based on sentiments. I have forwarded a position on what I think will happen with the exchange rate. You have not said anything. What is your own analysis of the situation? Let's hear yours..

Whoever is thinking or dreaming of 300/$1 is probably still dreaming maybe... The aftermath of the ww11 on world economies are still there to be grappled with by top world economies. Even the U.S has a huge debt and Germany still paying her debt till date. These things take time or maybe we could peg(mostly called manipulate) our currency just like Japan and China does.
Get the book: currency wars by James Rickards.
My speculation is simple,its not about analysing just the economy but some other factors play major roles too.
Examples are; your president not being in the country, this new south Africa/Nigeria clash stuff thing,oil having to drop in price considering that's our major revenue e.t.c.
* I have RMB to pay for your goods bought in China, interested persons could send a PM.

The way BDC are looking for customers right now

FMary:
I just called abok I men that buys my dollar in Abuja.

The first guy said NGN 450 to $1 initially and I called a second man thinking it was a joke and the second person said NGN 410.

To my surprise I called the first man again after 30mins and he said it's NGN 420.

This dollars I made from blogging and hopping to sell high, my adsense payment just came it yesterday 23rd.

Na waoooo.... I will wait until next week, it will surely stabilize and go up again.

You still don't get it. Nigerian Government is ALL out to destroy black market completely. By the time the government is finished with black marketers, they will be finished completely!

I don't get people, naira goes up they shout, reduce nko Economic Analysts emerge

stagger:
The aboki guys are smart. They know people will be desperate and so will offer to buy your dollars cheap. Many of them have been in the business for years so they know what will still happen.

The question is: what has really changed in the fundamentals of the Nigerian economy to justify a strengthening of the local currency? The answer is NOTHING.

What the CBN has simply done is to use some of the gain in the foreign reserves in the last 2 months to pump dollars into the market. Interventions are not new. They have been done by several central banks across the world. But the fact is: where the fundamentals have not changed, they hardly work.

The best the CBN can do is to keep pumping dollars to maintain the parallel market band at between 450 to 480/490. A country cannot spend the money it makes from exports to keep selling dollars to offset rising local demand.

The permanent solution is to reduce local demand for dollars by eliminating the main factors fuelling it. Ensure self-sufficiency in refining of products. This alone will cut demand of dollars for importation of petroleum products by 50%. Then the power sector reforms must be completely re-jigged so that by 2017/2018, we can double current generation and transmission. That way, local industries can start manufacturing again and this will reduce the need to import things like palm oil, furniture, shoes, clothing items, etc.

Make our universities and teaching hospitals centres of excellence. That way, we will not have a President spending four months in a London hospital at the country's expense, and millions of other Nigerians seeking treatment at Indian hospitals or schooling in UK, Malaysia and the US.

Until we do the needful as a country, we will remain in this cycle where the CBN has to pump dollars into the market to force down exchange rates. It is a temporary method which has an elastic limit. It cannot be sustained forever.

Your head dey there bro.

Buhari should just remain in London for a few more months and Nigeria will certainly bounce out of recession.

Nigerians are very difficult to please.The Naira has been on the down ward trend even as this government in power have tried to treat the fundamentals as we call it wit a depletated reserve and low crude oil price;but the pple have constantly maintained that d currency was better managed under the last Pdp government that ave always defend the naira frm the external reserve. Now that we have cried up & they are doing the same thing to reduce the pressure on the naira, we are now demanding they treat the fundamentals. Nawa

Now 440

stagger:


See my analysis here on Nairaland last week.
https://www.nairaland.com/do_share?session=8D7E773237EF19B33765CBDDEC48000C4F1493B74EBA2B9379F6C5283FC63F31&post=53740072&redirect=%2Fstagger%2Fposts%2353740072

I don't talk based on sentiments. I have forwarded a position on what I think will happen with the exchange rate. You have not said anything. What is your own analysis of the situation? Let's hear yours..

Your position is irrelevant. We have more experienced, tested and qualified hands working to get things as normal as possible. All of a sudden every Nigerian has become a self acclaimed expert in economics...smh.

Najwal:
I don't get people, naira goes up they shout, reduce nko Economic Analysts emerge

Lol you go fear armchair analysts na

989900:
Pessimists . . . LOL.

The banks only bought $370m of $500mavailable, throw in CBN is willing to inject more funds next week . . .once rates merge, there will be less hoarding and inflow from alternate sources.

You can keep your dollars if you like . . . probably sell it when it is N380.

I want the best but I'm not convinced this won't come back to bite us in the ass!! Economic indices haven't changed, LCs aren't getting financing, manufacturers can't keep up with alternative power cost....

All this artificial 410 quotes na lie, Black marketers are just playing mind games, put a call to one, wants to buy @ 410-420 but won't sell less than 460, who is fooling who!!

February 2016, we experienced same thing!!!!!


Cc Stagger

FMary:
I just called abok I men that buys my dollar in Abuja.

The first guy said NGN 450 to $1 initially and I called a second man thinking it was a joke and the second person said NGN 410.

To my surprise I called the first man again after 30mins and he said it's NGN 420.

This dollars I made from blogging and hopping to sell high, my adsense payment just came it yesterday 23rd.

Na waoooo.... I will wait until next week, it will surely stabilize and go up again.

Sell now....it's going to go on a free fall till it's close to what the banks are offering. The only thing that can make it rise again as it is is the non implementation of the cbn stuff, a fall in Oil price or niger Delta militants.

stagger:
The aboki guys are smart. They know people will be desperate and so will offer to buy your dollars cheap. Many of them have been in the business for years so they know what will still happen.

The question is: what has really changed in the fundamentals of the Nigerian economy to justify a strengthening of the local currency? The answer is NOTHING.

What the CBN has simply done is to use some of the gain in the foreign reserves in the last 2 months to pump dollars into the market. Interventions are not new. They have been done by several central banks across the world. But the fact is: where the fundamentals have not changed, they hardly work.

The best the CBN can do is to keep pumping dollars to maintain the parallel market band at between 450 to 480/490. A country cannot spend the money it makes from exports to keep selling dollars to offset rising local demand.

The permanent solution is to reduce local demand for dollars by eliminating the main factors fuelling it. Ensure self-sufficiency in refining of products. This alone will cut demand of dollars for importation of petroleum products by 50%. Then the power sector reforms must be completely re-jigged so that by 2017/2018, we can double current generation and transmission. That way, local industries can start manufacturing again and this will reduce the need to import things like palm oil, furniture, shoes, clothing items, etc.

Make our universities and teaching hospitals centres of excellence. That way, we will not have a President spending four months in a London hospital at the country's expense, and millions of other Nigerians seeking treatment at Indian hospitals or schooling in UK, Malaysia and the US.

Until we do the needful as a country, we will remain in this cycle where the CBN has to pump dollars into the market to force down exchange rates. It is a temporary method which has an elastic limit. It cannot be sustained forever.

Nicely said.

All the prophets of dooms will be shamed, what caused dollar to go high abinitio was it's less supply due to fall in the price of crude now that crude price is getting high dollar supply has gone up, initially the CBN was building up the reserve, it is now $30Billion which is averagely ok, now whatever is gotten can be shared between reserve and fx demand by businesses.

If the CBN continues supply of atleast $200Million weekly I believe in 2 months dollars will be N200, remember they supplied $500M to the market this week Monday but the banks could only take $370 leaving them with balance of $170M for next week, if by next week they supply $300M to banks and $200M to BDC, there will be over supply and price will crash drastically. Remember this week crash is just because of supply to banks alone just imagine what will happen when BDCs too are supplied.

So hoarders beware, your days are over, thanks to crude price increase and the foresight of Osinbajo and PMB, God bless Nigeria

Firstcitizen:


Your position is irrelevant. We have more experienced, tested and qualified hands working to get things as normal as possible. All of a sudden every Nigerian has become a self acclaimed expert in economics...smh.

I have a professional qualification in the area of technical analysis. This is part what I do for a living, bro...

Any country that has to keep relying on its central bank using scarce foreign exchange to shore up their currency is going nowhere but dancing around in circles.

Even a novice who knows laws of basic demand and supply can decode what is going on right now. The street sellers are capitalizing on the panic sales of those who have held their US dollars and are mopping it up at low prices. They are not selling US Dollars but will buy and only at very low prices. Once they have mopped up free dollars in the hands of the populace, a new round of dollar scarcity will arise. This scenario happened sometime in September/October.

No central bank will keep using a currency it does not have a legal mandate to print but has to earn, to keep defending its currency. The govt has to fund its budget with the dollar earnings from crude as well.

@ Stagger, I'm 100 percent with you. Surely we all want the Naira to be strengthened, but the fundamentals do not yet support it.

We need the reserves to be at least provide cover for 6-months imports. We don't have that yet. This week Cbn more or less intervened with 600m USD(inc the forwards obligations). That's a lot on the reserves in 1-week. And of course, we have been here before!

As sad as this is, it is true. Well, we business peeps will find other means of making money aside forex. Buhari, pls come back o. I predicted that naira will hit 580 and I can't lose millions just like that.