Since 1914 the British Government has been trying to make Nigeria into one country, but the Nigerian people themselves are historically different in their backgrounds, in their religious beliefs and customs and do not show themselves any sign of willingness to unite… Nigerian unity is only a British intention for the country.” — Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, Lagos, 1948. Let’s start from the top. Nigeria is not working. Not for me, not for you who is reading, not for anyone. Except of course, your definition of working is piling up cash from government patronage, and looking at it. The fact is that even those who are making all that pile of dosh still feel our daily pain each day. From the sound of power plants in their backyards, to more than the average visit to the motor-mechanic to have their shock absorbers fixed. From having to provide their own personal water supply, to having to provide their own personal security, Nigeria is an annoyance to everyone. One problem that has been readily identified is that the country is just too big, and too concentrated in Abuja to run properly. This is true. It is also true that China, Canada, the United States, are bigger, and are making progress. It is also true that India, who started along the path to nationhood at a similar time as we did, is making progress in some form. However, this does not stop the arguments that we need to break Nigeria up. Now a confession — I have, for the majority of my life, been almost implacably opposed to the idea of breaking Nigeria up. But ever since I joined a small geo-political research company two years ago now, the contradictions of the Nigerian state, and the sheer waste it engenders, which I am faced with everyday, have kind of elevated my thinking, and made me reconsider my position. Will the people who occupy the space that is currently Nigeria, be better served if we break the country up? Maybe they will, but I still have my doubts. You see, human behaviour is rather constant given certain conditions, and the conditions within the Nigerian state, have been conducive for projecting the worst of human behaviours.

For the sake of convenience, let us consider what we now call the six geopolitical zones in the country. The North-Central, popularly known as the Middle Belt, is made up of Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger and Plateau states. We could add Abuja, but we must remember that Abuja is federally run. The Middle Belt is dominated by “minority” ethnic groups who have various allegiances. This has exacerbated a burning conflict in the region that is at once ethnic and religious. The region has never, since independence, been able to articulate a singular agenda. More importantly because of age-old animosities, there are so many conflicts in the region that keep the people there unable to fight against the Hausa-Fulani-Islamic influence that is coming in from the North of their borders. Should this region become a country, it will be just a matter of time it will fall like a plum, and become a vassal to the North. The North-East is made up of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe. This region has borne the brunt of the Boko Haram insurgency over the last decade, and there is no sign whatsoever that this will go away soon. The region was also the base of Maitatsine. Historically, the northern reaches of this region, dominated by the Kanuri, was centred around the Lake Chad economy. The Kanuri are spread around Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon, and the creation of these states has not really divided them. They look more “inward” amongst themselves, than “outward” towards any of these countries. This will be a problem for a “North-East country”, not to talk of the extremism of groups like Maitatsine, Boko Haram, or whoever else comes along. This means that this country will be inherently unstable, and will be a problem for the countries that border it, namely the Middle-Belt country, the North-West country, Cameroon, Niger, and Chad. The North-West is made up of Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara. The first problem this new country will have is that while it will immediately have the largest population (disputed) of the six new countries, and a huge proportion of this population, will be uneducated, and possibly uneducatable. The region will however, based on current stats, be the most self-sufficient in food production. However, it will suffer in terms of trade, as a lack of access to the sea will hamper it. To its North, will be very poor neighbours, Dosso, Maradi and Tahoua; regions of Niger Republic, with which it has deep historical ties, and which happen to be the most densely populated parts of that, the poorest country in the world. This means that the movement of people between both will be almost unrestricted, and immediate, putting a strain on the new country. It will fail very quickly. The South-East is made up of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo. Historically the homeland of the Igbo people, this was also the heartland of the secession attempt in the 1960s, and is the heartland of the current secessionist agitations. It is also the smallest region geographically, and the most densely populated. While its natives are aspirational and upwardly mobile, the country will run into trouble pretty quickly because it will be landlocked, and there will almost immediately be fierce competition for scarce resources. There is a reason why three centuries ago, lots of Igbo people began to abandon their farms, and produce great traders — the land simply could not cope. There is no reason to to believe that it will cope now. A drive from Onitsha to Awka, just in Anambra state will show this expanding soil deterioration. Then there will be the geopolitics of coping with expansion from the North, and hostility from the South… The South-South is made up of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers. The first problem such a country will have, that more than any other region in the country, this region has had its environment completely devastated. By the very stuff, which keeps Nigeria going, in its current form. What this means is that should this region become a country on its own, feeding will become a problem, almost from the get go. Fun fact, they produce more fish in the North-West than in the South-South. Added to that, is that the region will have a very similar problem to what the Middle Belt has — no common cause. The only portion of this region I foresee making a headway, is the far eastern part made up of Cross River and Akwa Ibom states today. The others, will soon descend into anarchy brought about by the fact that the youth in that region have been so thoroughly devastated by a proliferation of arms, gangs, and turf wars for control of lucrative, if illegal oil trades. No, a country from the South-South, will be a problem to everyone. The South-West is made up of Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo. On the surface, this is will be the most stable and forward looking of all the new countries that will emerge. The current Nigerian economy is centred here (46% of Nigeria’s tax receipts come from Lagos alone), and there is a knock on effect from Lagos, which is beginning to lift Ogun up. But that is on the surface. In reality, we tend to forget that Lagos was federal capital for 87 years, and as a result, commanded the lion’s share of whatever development came the way of the various zones. This arrangement is still felt till today as Lagos is without doubt the centre of everything economic in Nigeria, despite Abuja’s pretensions to the contrary. Lagos, is also effectively Nigeria’s only port. This means that there is a large number of people from the other regions, in Lagos, who are both doing business, and living here. Heck, I live in Lagos too. Now, what if we scatter this country, and every man goes back to the region of his ancestors? The very thing that makes Lagos so dynamic, will be gone. And there will be a lot of catching up to do from the other states in the region. The other new countries, will begin to develop their own infrastructure to compete with Lagos, and a population of roughly 20 million (2006 census figures minus Lagos) will no longer be as attractive to trade, as a population of 180 million plus. This will give a new lease of life to Cotonou, Lome, Sekondi and Tema, all existing ports within six hours of Lagos, and all, even now, better organised. So, these are some of the practical problems that the six new countries will face within themselves. What practical problem will they face amongst one another? First, the fight for resources will continue. You think oil is the only thing worth fighting for? Consider the large scale desertification that is happening to Nigeria’s north, in Niger. It will keep spreading, and that will push people down southwards. Into new countries. These people need to survive, and they will fight to survive. Consider that if this break happens, four of the six countries will be cut off from the ocean. Think about how dependent Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Mali are on their neighbours. Think about the Central African Republic. Do you for one second think that the political and business elite in the North-West, North-East and North-Central will sit idly by and watch themselves effectively become another Niger Republic? Do you for one second think that even the normal South-Easterner on the street will want to be constrained within the limited space that 29,388 sq.km will afford him? A space which will give him a population density of 1,089 people per sq.km, which will immediately shoot his country up to being one of the world’s top thirty in terms of population density? There are arguments for changing the structure that we currently run, and the singular, overreaching argument, is that it is not working. But breaking up the country? You only need to take a look at the map again. From a military standpoint, there’s only one region that will be easily defended: the North-Central. If we are mad enough to go the route of a break-up, and the inevitable war for resources/access to the sea that will follow, we will be caught up in a war without end. This war will affect not just us, but two huge regions — West, and Central Africa. When that happens, isolationist or not, the world will take notice, and will intervene. Then they will put us back together, because that is the reality that they know. We are not the Soviet Union, or Yugoslavia, who had prior body corporates, to return to. Not one of our regions existed as a country, prior to Lugard’s “mistake of 1914”. So my question is — what is the point of fighting a war, or wars, if we will end up back where we started? Will we not be better off thinking through a solution to what is clearly a problem? This article is not absolute. It is meant to provoke a discussion. So, let’s discuss like thinking men.

Bk

DullardBuhari:
benefits include

*Zero Marginalization
*Incessant killings from herdsmen
*stealing of State resources to feed lazy Aphonjaz

Even if we break up along geopolitical, ethnic, or religious lines, I assure you most solemnly, it won't change a thing because people won't change their behavior and corruption will still thrives. Besides, there will be other New challenges, issues and problems that will arise. The black race, Nigeria inclusive, is programmed in such a parochial way so as not to make meaningful progress because of our inbuilt retrogressive and backward thought processes.

The black race needs help and deliverance.

Mtsewww! All this IPOD disturbing people, I would only take you serious if you go beyond declaring sit at home and declares all IPODs in the Nigeria diaspora of Kano, Lagos, Sokoto, Oyo, Plateau, Osun, Kaduna and the remaining Nigerian states to come back home of Biafra. The country that its citizens are running from, is that one a country. You should tread softly or else you will be the losers, because you are the most scattered specie in the land of Nigeria.

divinehand2003:
Bk

Even if we break up along geopolitical, ethnic, or religious lines, I assure you most solemnly, it won't change a thing because people won't change their behavior and corruption will still thrives. Besides, there will be other New challenges, issues and problems that will arise. The black race, Nigeria inclusive, is programmed in such a parochial way so as not to make meaningful progress because of our inbuilt retrogressive and backward thought processes.

The black race needs help and deliverance.

It will not be a perfect country.. no country has ever been..
But atlest tribalism will stop..
Which is the biggest prob we hav in naija today.
Tribalism is what is pullin the country down.
Bcoz everyone is battling for supremacy

True federalism or splitting this damned country would work for everyone. Having a big country and population is what's actually killing us.

Newbiee:
Mtsewww! All this IPOD disturbing people, I would only take you serious if you go beyond declaring sit at home and declares all IPODs in the Nigeria diaspora of Kano, Lagos, Sokoto, Oyo, Plateau, Osun, Kaduna and the remaining Nigerian states to come back home of Biafra. The country that its citizens are running from, is that one a country. You should tread softly or else you will be the losers, because you are the most scattered specie in the land of Nigeria.

And when did you become so compassionate about us being scattered??

And who also asked you to take them serious?

If you always that serious, why is your bank account still celebrating children's day?

Nonsense write up, am a rivers man nd am proudly a Biafra man

swagagolic01:
Nonsense write up, am a rivers man nd am proudly a Biafra man

That's one of the best articles that I have seen in a long time. The OP did a good job of engaging us and bringing to bare all the realities of breaking up this country along 6 geopolitical zones.

Nice one dear OP.

We need electricity to start with. The benefits far far outweigh the negatives. No need for any long analysis.
Nigeria must have fiscal federalism or break up. Enough of yhis begging the issue

They refused giving us an extra state in the south east for equity.
They said we are bad people and giving Nigeria a bad name yet they enjoy staying with a bad people, I don't no what's wrong.
Quota system have undermined our progress. My younger bro will score 60 and will be denied admission while an almajiri will score 20 and be giving admission.
The list is endless.

#wearetired.

No nation is unbreakable. We didn't negotiate the union of this contraption we were coerced to suit the whims and caprices of Lord Lugard and his British people.

We need electricity to start with and i guarantee that every state will have constant power if they were to be on their own for instance. The benefits far far outweigh the negatives. No need for any long analysis.
Nigeria must have fiscal federalism or break up. Enough of this begging the issue.

Breaking up Nigeria will spell doom to most region, some will scramble to survive, civil war within some of the new countries will erupt,killing of foreigners in some of the new countries will not be avoided, and again 3 countries wont work based on what is on ground, SS, NC, SE they won't last. Unless there's some merging in some components, like some states in SS will merge with some in SW and SE while some NE states will merge with NW and some of NC will go to NW and vice verser. No mind my english. Na my opinion be that.

divinehand2003:
Bk

Even if we break up along geopolitical, ethnic, or religious lines, I assure you most solemnly, it won't change a thing because people won't change their behavior and corruption will still thrives. Besides, there will be other New challenges, issues and problems that will arise. The black race, Nigeria inclusive, is programmed in such a parochial way so as not to make meaningful progress because of our inbuilt retrogressive and backward thought processes.

The black race needs help and deliverance.

you said it all, breakup is not the solution my brother. And Yes i'm begging for unity.biko

divinehand2003:
Bk

Even if we break up along geopolitical, ethnic, or religious lines, I assure you most solemnly, it won't change a thing because people won't change their behavior and corruption will still thrives. Besides, there will be other New challenges, issues and problems that will arise. The black race, Nigeria inclusive, is programmed in such a parochial way so as not to make meaningful progress because of our inbuilt retrogressive and backward thought processes.

The black race needs help and deliverance.

Let us break this country into manageable sizes.
Nigeria is just too big to manage as one country, look at Europe, some countries are not even up to 3 million in population and they are doing quite well.
Some people in this country has refused to evolve, they will always be a draw back for those striving to move forward so let's break this country up.

Kyase:
Breaking up Nigeria will spell doom to most region, some will scramble to survive, civil war within some of the new countries will erupt,killing of foreigners in some of the new countries will not be avoided, and again 3 countries wont work based on what is on ground, SS, NC, SE they won't last. Unless there's some merging in some components, like some states in SS will merge with some in SW and SE while some NE states will merge with NW and some of NC will go to NW and vice verser. No mind my english. Na my opinion be that.

The new countries will work provided the people there are willing to make it work.
Why are some states in country working while others are not?, it is the question of the people.
When the country is divided, the people will come to terms with the reality of their situation and they will be condemned to either survive or perish.

7lives:


The new countries will work provided the people there are willing to make it work.
Why are some states in country working while others are not?, it is the question of the people.
When the country is divided, the people will come to terms with the reality of their situation and they will be condemned to either survive or perish.

have you considered other factors that make people not to work

Lubbish!

NW produce more fish than SS
Ipob weed is working.

Op's envy for the SS is more than evident.

Kyase:
Breaking up Nigeria will spell doom to most region, some will scramble to survive, civil war within some of the new countries will erupt,killing of foreigners in some of the new countries will not be avoided, and again 3 countries wont work based on what is on ground, SS, NC, SE they won't last. Unless there's some merging in some components, like some states in SS will merge with some in SW and SE while some NE states will merge with NW and some of NC will go to NW and vice verser. No mind my english. Na my opinion be that.

See them scrambling for SS.
Thief thief thief.

divinehand2003:
Bk

Even if we break up along geopolitical, ethnic, or religious lines, I assure you most solemnly, it won't change a thing because people won't change their behavior and corruption will still thrives. Besides, there will be other New challenges, issues and problems that will arise. The black race, Nigeria inclusive, is programmed in such a parochial way so as not to make meaningful progress because of our inbuilt retrogressive and backward thought processes.

The black race needs help and deliverance.

That is a lie! Corruption exist because of ethnic difference. We are not patriotic to the country but to our ethnicities. For a country to eliminate corruption, they must have patriotic citizens. The way yoruba people will fight corruption in nigeria will be totally different from that of an oodua country. Patriotism comes from within. It is something from the mind. When yoruba split, we wont bother to fight corruption again since no leader can be able to use ethnicity to perpetrate. The black man is not the problem, it is the system created by the whites that has left us underdeveloped. If japan, china, and south korea were as diverse like most african countries, they will be as poor as we are today.
Hope you get?

Lots of good benefits if Nigeria breaks up.One the various groups will v space to develop&focus on their people like Europe.The various groups will v to give in and give out to integrate and work towards a conferacy.

7lives:


Let us break this country into manageable sizes.
Nigeria is just too big to manage as one country, look at Europe, some countries are not even up to 3 million in population and they are doing quite well.
Some people in this country has refused to evolve, they will always be a draw back for those striving to move forward so let's break this country up.

Excellent!

Kyase:
have you considered other factors that make people not to work

What are the factors let's hear them.
How did our people survive before colonization?.
Did you know that in Yoruba land for example, people organize themselves into societies to work on members farms? to make roads, to build houses and more.
Anyone who is not up and doing will not be accepted by any society in that area, no one wants to be left out so everybody needs to sit up.

Ekinematics:


See them scrambling for SS. Thief thief thief.

lol, i'm from the mid-side of the country bro

7lives:


What are the factors let's hear them.
How did our people survive before colonization?.
Did you know that in Yoruba land for example, people organize themselves into societies to work on members farms? to make roads, to build houses and more.
Anyone who is not up and doing will not be accepted by any society in that area, no one wants to be left out so everybody needs to sit up.

lets be sincered bro, the next thing after "peaceful disintergration" the next thing will be war, either civil war or external war with neighbours. That alone will put many out of work.

There are many advantages to disintegration. Even a child can see that.
Your question should be : what advantages do we derive from remaining as a unit ?
Also, revise your article and use paragraphs. They were invented to ease comprehension

We can start with regionalization.

Many people forget that the country that created Nigeria designed a formula for itself that works. The United Kingdom has four countries in one country. England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. They looked for what would work for them and built something around it.

The truth of the Matter is that the best formula for Nigeria is staring us in the face and if anything , we should have Abacha to thank for creating the geopolitical zones that Ekwueme recommended.

Making the geopolitical zones the bedrock of our development would make all the difference. The fight for the center would be much less.

Imagine a scenario where Tinubu is the Premier of the South West. Instead of Peter Obi eyeing presidency in Abuja that would never work, he pursues the development of South east from Enugu. Imagine Donald Duke covering the South South. Imagine Kwankwanso heading the North West etc. The struggle for the center would be much less. Ahmadu Bello and Awolowo till today remain great icons. They, as premiers were much more popular and had greater impact on thier people than Tafawa Balewa & Azikiwe. Those six years of regionalism are about the only Nigeria ever worked.

We need to go back to that template. And it's pretty simple. Many of the functions controlled by the FG should be ceded to the regions. Let the FG manage Defence & External security, Foreign relations, Macro economics, etc. The regions would simply take over areas like railways, ports, So called federal roads, resource extraction, etc.
The states must be retained and would continue to serve under the same system.

This thing is very easy to achieve and I see no reason why nobody is discussing! Truth is most of the people that we leave to have these discussions old and past their prime. Young people need to start plotting their future and forcefully or otherwise seize the narrative current controlled by yesterday's men.

Kyase:
lets be sincered bro, the next thing after "peaceful disintergration" the next thing will be war, either civil war or external war with neighbours. That alone will put many out of work.

The EASIEST way out of the Quagmire is cutting out completely the HausaFulaniKanuris-Muslims regions from Nigerian.

This is the bitter truth. It May sound funny and harshly but check out all of our history as a nation since 1914 to date. You will discover that the HausaFulaniKanuris-Muslims are the only problem with peaceful and prosperous nation.

[quote author=Kyase post=57015061]lets be sincered bro, the next thing after "peaceful disintergration" the next thing will be war, either civil war or external war with neighbours. That alone will put many out of work.[/quote

Which war are you talking about? You mean if we all agree to go our separate ways, some people will come back to fight against the agreement?. Do you foresee that happening in Nigeria?, every tribe knows their boundaries in Nigeria.
Though I'm not ruling out some people trying to take what doesn't belong to them, that is not an excuse for the current situation of things.
Did you see what happened to Saddam when he tried to annex Kuwait?.
The world has gone beyond big countries swallowing up smaller nations.
Every country no matter how small is a member of the United nations, unless that small country agree to become a member of another country, the UN will not fold it's arms.