Source: http://www.suanusblog.com/2017/07/10-key-deciding-factors-in-osun-by.html

Today, the electorates in Osun West Senatorial District will be exercising their franchise to elect a new Senator to represent them at the red chamber. The senatorial district is made up of 10 local government areas.
Today’s by-election is as a result of the sudden death of Sen.Isiaka Adeleke who was representing the senatorial district before His demise. Adeleke died on 23rd April 2017 at Biket Hospital, Osogbo in the State of Osun.
Few weeks after His demise, the battle to replace Him began and has so far been characterized by so many intrigues. As the electorates go to cast their votes today, Suanu’s Blog examines key factors that may determine who and which party will emerge victorious. Our considerations are limited to the two main political parties; the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), as many of other minor political parties have either pitched their tents with these major contenders or have no meaningful presence or chance in the by-election.
The main contenders are Sen. Mudashiru Husain of the APC and Dr.Ademola Adeleke of the PDP.
The key considered factors are:
1. Religion: Religion is always a key decider in the political sphere of Nigeria from times immemorial. The only botched differential moment was that of Abiola’s Presidency. Thereafter, Nigerians democratic experience has always had some glaring religious presence. That is why it’s usual for contestants to go to religious grounds or worship places during electioneering periods. Apart from this, there is a lot of religious alignment that takes place before any election in Nigeria. This could be either inter-religious or intra-religious. Most Nigerian Muslims would choose to vote for a Muslim candidate than a Christian Candidate, vice versa.
In Osun State, it is likely that religion will play a key role in deciding who wins today’s by-election. Although in Osun State there are large population of Muslims and Christians, it is however difficult to precisely state, which religion has the highest followership as such assertion is subject to debates. In line with our Nigerianness, some electorates in the senatorial district may vote having this at the back of their minds.
2. Sheriff And Omisore’s Influences: Having won the battle in the PDP so far to the level of the Appeal Court, Sheriff’s leadership position in the PDP is not in dispute. Many faithfuls of the party especially in Osun State are united behind Him and the candidate of the party. This unity cum the political and financial influences of Sheriff may go a long way in helping the course of the party. Also, the reconciliation between a former governorship candidate of the party, Sen.Iyiola Omisore and the Adelekes may also work in the favour of the Ede-born candidate of the Party.
3. APC’s Influence: APC as the ruling party in the state may still have enough goodwill to deliver its candidate. Add this to the presence of its Chairman, John Oyegun, as well as other top leaders of the party including Governors of Borno and Kebbi states during the Mega Rally of the party. This surely will act as a morale booster for members and supporters of the party in the state and it is expected that it will also serve as an additional encouragement for them to come out enmass and vote for the party’s candidate.
4. Federal Might: The use of federal influences to secure electoral victories is not new to politics in Nigeria. Federal Might is been utilized during polls by compromising security agencies, supplying financial supports and or compromising the electoral umpire. If this plays out in Osun State today, then the candidate on the platform of the ruling party may emerge victorious. However, with much vigilance from electorates recently, this appears difficult to achieve in the open space.
5. Aggrieved APC Members: The fist over who takes the flag of the APC in this by-electoral has been enormous. Unlike in the PDP where the party’s flag was unanimously given to a candidate of less than three days membership in the party. In APC, party members were divided along various lines. Those in the camp of the Governor were supporting Sen.Husain while others were supporting Otunba Adeleke. The short-lived victory of Adeleke in the APC did not only lead to His defection but that of many of His immediate supporters or loyalists of His late Brother. Political Analysts are of the opinion that there are many other aggrieved members of the APC who did not defect to the PDP but may vote for the PDP in protest against the party. The legal tussle by some aggrieved members of the APC against the subsequence clearance of Sen.Husain for the senatorial poll may also dim the chances of the party’s candidate in today’s election.
6. Adeleke’s Death: Many people were pained by the sudden demise of Sen.Isiaka Adeleke. This was obvious as many groups and individuals protested the circumstances that surrounded the death of their benefactor. Many of these loyalists of the late senator are bent on delivering Dr.Ademola Adeleke as a way of immortalizing or compensating the family for the loss. This group that cuts across both APC and PDP may give Otunba Adeleke sympathy votes today. However, it is unclear whether this will be enough to secure victory for the candidate of the PDP.
Meanwhile there are a few others who see the PDP Candidate as an opportunist who wants to ride on the blood of His Brother to political office. They opine that the senatorial slot is not hereditary, hence not the sole right of the Adelekes.
7. Aregbesola’s Poor Performance: The tenure (s) of Gov.Rauf Aregbesola has been graded by many political observers and people as poor. Osun State under Aregbesola has been battling with series of debts, low revenue from the centre and internally and months of unpaid salaries, allowances and pensions. This has no doubt also affected the pace of development in the state. Some sections of the State are of the opinion that the electorates may use today’s poll to express that anger against the administration of Aregbesola that has brought and sustained their pains, making life so unbearable for them. Add this to the overall anger of some Nigerian’s against the Buhari administration so far. These may go a long way in affecting the candidate who shares same political platform with the Governor and the President.
8. Crises in the PDP: Although the PDP in Osun State appears united behind its Candidate, Ademola Adeleke, many supporters of the Makarfi faction may vote against the party (certainly not for APC). Sen.Ahmed Makarfi had earlier stated that His own candidate will contest under another political party. Makarfi had stated this through His factional state Chairman, Dr.Bayo Faforiji. However, it remains unclear if the Makarfi faction actually produced its own candidate and under which political party the candidate is contesting the by-election.
9. Need For Fresh Representation: There are some people who hold the opinion that old politicians should not be continually recycled. These individuals are rooting behind Ademola Adeleke who they believe will bring fresh ideas on board and would work for the general good of the people against the so many distractions that confront old-time politicians. The number of these ones and the influence they exert can also increase the fortunes of the PDP Candidate in today’s poll.
10. Goodwill of Sen.Husain: The candidate of the APC is an astute politician that has been in the political space since 1999. He fully understands the political game and has over the time built lots of goodwill and networks. All these may eventually work in His favour to ensure He emerges victorious.
How the above considered factors will play out, only time will tell. It is however expected that the good people of Osun West Senatorial District will peacefully exercise their franchise and that INEC will conduct a free, fair and credible by-election today in the State of Osun.

Source: http://www.suanusblog.com/2017/07/10-key-deciding-factors-in-osun-by.html