Leave Biafra outter this.

SSBN:
[b[s]]Three part analysis.[/b]


Nigeria’s Chief of Army staff, Lt. General Tukur Buratai and Nigeria’s Chief of Air staff Abubakar Sadique this week gave their theatre commanders of Operation Lafiya Role, a 40 Day ultimatum to capture Abubakar Shey-coward, leader of the Boko Haram Jihadi group.

According to sources, the Nigerian military have been directed to use all the arsenal at their disposal to find and capture Abubakar Shekau dead or alive, so as to free up resources to protect Nigeria’s territory from a possible potential “unnamed”aggression.

“The general public is please requested to also assist and volunteer information that would lead to the accomplishment of this task.”..
The urgency of this development may not be unconnected to the fact that in the pats several months there have been a spike in cross border skirmishes between Nigerian and Cameroonian security personnel at the border region between both countries. These incidents largely go unreported.
Tensions however spiked to unprecedented level when in May 2017, the most powerful warship of the Cameroonian Navy, CNS Dipika , caught the Nigeria Navy unawares by showing up at the Nigerian Navy Eastern Naval Command in Calabar, where she events docked.

The fact that the Cameroonian government did not formally request permission to sail into Nigerian waters is troubling. What is more troubling however is that the ship sailed hundreds of miles into Nigerian waters undetected and unchallenged until it showed up smack right at the Eastern Command, where she eventually docked.

A month later in June, 97 Nigerians wer killed by Cameroonian Gendarmes in Bakassi because they could not afford a N100,000 levy on each fishing boat. As alarming as it might be, this is not without precedent.

In December 2015, Cameroonian troops crossed the border into znigeria, killed 150 villagers, burned their huts and forced them to flee.

Months before that Chadian troops and hundreds of armed vehicles crossed into Nigeria without authorization from the Nigerian government into several villages in Borno, using the Boko Haram insurgency as a cloak. Just last week Nigeria’s petroleum minister said he expects a discovery soon in the Lake Chad Basin, making border clashes between Nigeria and Chad nearly inevitable in the northeastern part of Nigeria that joins CHAF, Cameroon and Niger.

In November 2015, Cameroonian soldiers crossed into Nigerian territory and killed 150 Nigerian civilians, stole cattle and razed entire villages. This coming days after the Nigerian government refused requests from Cameroon and Chad to evacuAte civilians and create a no go zone along the border is indicative of Cameroons flagrant disregard of Nigeria’s territorial sovereignty.

In January 2016, emboldened by Nigeria’s lack of response, Cameroonian troops again crossed into Nigerian territory in pursuit of Boko Haram and shot and killed 40 Nigerian civilians.

Distracted by the Boko Haram insurgency, Nigeria had been unable or unwilling to take punitive actions against cross border attacks on Nigerian soil by hostile state actors. But all that is about to change. The recapture of hitherto lost territory to Boko Haram and the degradation of the group’s fighting capacity is freeing up resources to address these hostile acts by the Franco alliance that is technically akin to a declaration of war.

Having seen these developments in recent years it is in my personal opinion that war between Nigeria and Cameroon and Chad is inevitable, and Nigeria has been secretly preparing for such an encounter. It is no more a matter of “IF” but “WHEN”. A war with Cameroon will almost certainly see Chad and Niger come to the aid of Cameroon, hence there is no escaping it, no wishing it away..a war betwern Nigeria and a Franco military alliance is imminent.

It should be noted that in the event of hostilities between Nigeria and the Franco alliance, there will be no Anglophone support or coalition. It should be noted that besides Nigeria there is no Anglophone member in ECOWAS with a significant military capability to proffer any form of assistance to Nigeria. Nigeria is the only Anglophone country in Africa encircled in its entirety by French speaking countries. Nigeria will go it alone.

With this innevtable event in kind let us examine the military state of play West Africa..

NIGERIA

Despite the Boko Haram insurgency, Nigeria remains the preeminent military power in West Africa. The Nigerian armed forces is an all volunteer mostly professional fighting force and fields large numbers of relatively advanced weapons platforms, and have some of the most combat experience of any sub-sahara African army

Nigeria’s greatest strenght and advantage is in manpower. With an active duty force of 200,000 men and a reserve force of 32,000 men, the Nigerian Army is larger than the combined armies of Chad, Cameroon Niger and half ECOWAS combined.

Before the advent of urban guerrilla counter insurgency groups like Boko Haram the Nigerian army was doctrine and designed to fight multiple regional armies like Chad and Cameroon simultaneously, relying on sheer mass of numbers, lots of mechanized amoured units and unmatched artillery power.

Of course, virtually no one anticipated an assymetric war with Boko Haram. But Nigeria’s war with Boko Haram has been a much smaller operation. The Nigerian Army has used barely a quarter of the army along with a roughly comparable fraction of the air force during combat operations and a very small fraction of its Navy. No more than 15,000 have been deployed to the North East against Boko Haram at a time. Also Nigeria’s vast and venerable artilleries are basically useless against an enemy with no defined base of operation besides civilian neighbourhoods.

This is hardly beyond the capacity of a total of 200,000 active duty troops and 32,000 reservists and 180,000 paramilitary to go to war against the Franco alliance.

Against Boko Haram, the Nigerian Army has had to employ extensively the use of special forces and intelligence assets such as satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles to fight. For ground assaults Nigeria has had to rely on a 6,000 combined crack troops from from the 72 Mobile Strike Force, Air Force Special Forces Regiment and Navy SBS Commandos, for multiple raids.

The real reason for Nigeria’s slow pace against the Boko Haram insurgency are two folds.

One, unlike in the creeks of the Niger Delta the Nigerian Army doesn’t really know where most Boko Haram are located most of the times.

Two, until late 2012 Nigeria’s action against the BH group has more of a police action than a real military campaign. Nigeria has not mobilized fully for war against Boko Haram, however in the event of an invasion of Calabar or Borno by external forces, then Nigeria will likel mobilize for full scale war.

……to be continued.

https://defensenigeria./2017/07/25/war-is-imminemt-nigerias-military-chiefs-gives-theater-army-and-air-force-commanders-ultimatum-to-capture-shekau/[/s]
Source :

Please let Biafra get off first and u are free to carry on with ur Francophone war.

hammerF:



Please let Biafra get off first and u are free to carry on with ur Francophone war.

Even if Biafra leaves, how would small and young Biafra save herself from the warships and Bombardments, all around?
Lol, there would be no war though, we've gone past that stage.

They want to free up their forces to fight Biafra activists? God no go allow them. In the words of NK, stand in between Biafra realization and die.

meritocrat:
They want to free up their forces to fight Biafra activists? God no go allow them. In the words of NK, stand in between Biafra realization and die.

Why is it easy for you to be so foolish!!

Odunayaw:
Why is it easy for you to be so foolish!!

Y talking like this foolish is an understatement. D King of fools is better.

WE SAY NO TO WAR IN AFRICA.

ALL CONFLICTS MUST BE RESOLVED AMICABLY.

THANK YOU.

Odunayaw:
Why is it easy for you to be so foolish!!

Brainless comment! Quote me when you have something sensible to say.

.....continuation.


CAMEROON

Measured by active duty manpower alone the Cameroonian armed forces is small. Very small. Cameroon has an active duty force of just 15,000 men, smaller than the Lagos State Police Command.
From an armament and training standpoint however, Cameroon has one of the best trained and equipped land force in all sub Saharan Africa. By equipment I don't meant heavy armament like Tanks, which Cameroon lacks; I'm talking about the basic support systems and gears and weapons a soldier needs to fight against a well armed adversary-like Nigeria. It is easier to kit a small army and give them the best of training.



Because the Cameroonian armed forces is hamstrung and burdened by the need to build and maintain an (by design or lack of funding) amoured fighting division, has basically no tank, no fixed wing fighter aircraft or interceptor, negligible attack helicopter force and very little artillery, it is able to focus its resources on proper training its fighting men.

Like the Chadians, the Cameroonian Elite fighting force, the BIR is modelled after the French Foreign Legion. Man o to man o Cameroonian soldiers are better train and better equipped than their Nigerian counterparts. But of course, Nigeria's large military and heavy equipped means it doesn't have to invest in the level of training and equipment to defeat an adversary like Cameroon.
This should however not give Nigeria's military solace. Cameroon has a Defence Pact with France. Nigeria does not. Cameroon is the only country in Africa with a Defence Pact with a major world power. Cameroon doesn't need tanks or aircrafts, all it needs is an airstrip for French Mirages and Rafaeles. Akin to the pact between South Korea and the United States, France is legally required to come to the aid of its Protege regardless of who initiates attacks.

After two Nigerian Air Force attack helicopters crossed into Cameroonian airspace and opened fire on Cameroonian Gendarmes watching a football game, a Defence Treaty between Cameroon and France was formally ratified.
The message to Nigeria is clear; If you move in on Cameroon, we are coming.

That is power.

As a friend of mine "Osemudiamen" once said,Nigerian leaders lacks the basic understanding of international geopolitics, and its security implications.

It is a sad thing that Nigeria, the country with arguably the best educated people in Africa, the nation of Nobel Laureates and literary icons, consistently produce leaders who struggle with articulation and lack basic understanding of strategic diplomacy. Over and over and again Nigeria has missed out on opportunities to exert her influence by flexing its diplomatic and military muscle in the region.


Cameroon soldiers marshalled near the Nigerian border.
But then again, given the sheer size of Nigeria's military and the massive disparity in armaments, it will be borderline stupid for Cameroon to face off against Nigeria. While on paper France is obligated to come to the aid of its ex colony,the country it rips off annually by imposing a colonial tax, the French will in reality measure the gains against the risk and consequences of attacking Nigeria militarily.

France has more investment in Nigeria than in all the Francophone countries combined. In a military confrontation with Nigeria, these companies will be nationalized in a beat, and billions of dollars worth of assets ceased. Also France is a long way from Africa, and unless you are the United States, air power alone does not win wars.



Unless Cameroon miraculously pulls off an Israel-like-God-on your-side-but-hates-the-Philistines kind of stunt, In an all out conflict with Nigeria chances are Nigerian troops and tanks will be in Yaounde before France is able mobilise any meaningful force to push out Nigerian forces.

But herein lies the problem. Nigerians have the most admirable attitude in Africa, confident and independent. This is reflective in Nigeria's very independent foreign policy. This is why during the Ebola crises in West Africa, Nigeria kicked out the American CDC (centre for disease control) without skipping a bit and set up her own independent disease control structure, using its unique contact tracing method, a model that became the yardstick for controling EBOLA globally. This is why Nigeria defiantly went ahead with its anti gay legislature despite threats from Obama, this is why Nigeria refused the basing of AFRICOM COMMAND in West Africa.

This sense of confidence and fierce independence is why Nigeria is despised by France and to a lesser extent the United States. Nigeria's foreign policy is decisive and assured. Nigeria desires no military confrontation with its neighbours.
Cameroon on the other hand is where the problem lies.

The countries economic and cultural dependence and docile populace makes it a ready vessel for manipulation . It is this docility that allows one man to basically run the country for 41 years. It is this docility that makes Cameroon continue to pay colonial taxes to France. And it is this docility that will allow France and the United States use it to fight its proxy war against Nigeria to gain access to the region's vast energy reserve.
Nigeria should not base its defense posture on the optics of the Cameroonian government, but rather on the intentions and objective of France in the region. The mere fact that France openly supported the secessionist Biafra in the civil war should make Nigeria's government wary of French involvement in Africa.

The time for Nigeria to build up her deterrence is now. There is little time for diplomatic naivety when for the past 5 years we have seen countless examples of French clandestine manipulation against the Nigerian State. Are Nigeria's leaders so daft as to not see the handwriting on the wall?
In 2014 Nigeria seized a French chartered cargo aircraft loaded with military helicopters, anti tank missiles and mortar shells bound for Chad. The scary thing is that this was only discovered because the aircraft was forced to make an unscheduled landing at Kano airport.

This happening in the exact same year when Nigeria'effort to acquire helicopter gunships from the United States, Pakistan and Israel was topedoed by Obama, citing human right concerns, yet the West deems it rational to supply the most despotic regime and human rights violator with helicopter gunships.

In that same year the personal aide to Chadian strongman, Idris Derby, was caught with several Russian made SA-7 anti aircraft missiles bound for Boko Haram.

In 2015, when the tide of the war was beginning to turn in Nigeria's favour and Boko Haram were on the run, it was discovered that %40 of the weapons ceased by the Nigerian army from Boko Haram are French made. Let us not forget the scam Idris Derby pulled on Nigeria for three weeks in the guise of the three party talks with Boko Haram, that invariably bought Boko Haram a three week respite to rearm and reinforce.

Let's not forget the millions of dollars paid to Boko Haram by Cameroonian president Paul Biya over the "ransom" payment scam, that saw Boko Haram immediately release the so called French captives. Let's not forget when Cameroon with little warning opened the flood gates of its Lagdo dam, flooding 12 Nigerian States, killing hundreds of Nigerians and rendering 55,000 people homeless. This in itself is an act of war.

This guys think Nigerians are stupid and I blame them not. They know Nigeria's political office holders are the most corrupt and incompetent set of politicians in human history

No matter how hard we try, no matter the economic policies made, Nigeria as a country will continue to suffer from economic saboteurs and civil unrests funded by external state actor until Nigeria secures her perimeters either by pushing for regime change and democratic rule in the Francophone countries she is sorrounded by, or by rebuilding her armed forces on an unprecedented scale, powerful enough to make any would be aggressor think twice.

Complete story : https://defensenigeria./2017/07/25/war-is-imminemt-nigerias-military-chiefs-gives-theater-army-and-air-force-commanders-ultimatum-to-capture-shekau/

Nigerian life have no value, as we kill ourselves unabated, we have shown the world that we have no life to protect, and our government is in shambles.

kettykin:
i think Nigeria needs to avoid war by all means now , when cameroon took bakassi Nigeria never went to war.

All all cameroon needs to do is to invite an arm of IPOB members and throw a lavish reception for them in Yaounde with a live press conference and a determination to support their Objectives , before it dawns on Nigeria they kind of change the embarked on by giving chinakwe's Dog power.

Nigeria is gradully surrounding itself with very powerful enemies , from Iran , Turkey Morroco , Israel now to cameroon infact it seems Nigeria's hour of crucifixion is around the corner and all it takes is for its former friend to betray it by open support to IPOB allowing IPOB to build a military base , air base and training grounds for a lot of avowed ipob members to train themselves.

so my advice to Nigeria is dont start a fire that will consume you. Francophone countries will finish Nigeria in 6 days.

How do you guys reason self
Anglo-Cameroon is devilishly marginalized
Nigeria has upper hand here and IPOB will only be a pawn in the crisis if there's one.

Olabestonic001:



How do you guys reason self
Anglo-Cameroon is devilishly marginalized
Nigeria has upper hand here and IPOB will only be a pawn in the crisis if there's one.

If Nigeria will have an upper hand then let them provoke war and lets see how things paly out and if Nigeria will last for a month.

kettykin:


If Nigeria will have an upper hand then let them provoke war and lets see how things paly out and if Nigeria will last for a month.

Lol, swelling with power behind France, huh? No shame.

...and some so called "Nigerians" are harping on, shamefaced, about Lugard but quick to boast on behalf of Cameroon regardless of their ongoing colonial status. They're like, "Empire Subjects and Proud!"

Excellent Analysis.... It of great strategic and logistic important to the FGN... Wish this could get to the appropriate Quarter.... It hard to simply turn this down....

I know one day... we going to get to the promise land.... According to what ds article entails... it quite clear.... Them old fools are the one governing us... who knows little about Regional.... And economic stands.... Young minds are definitely gonna reform Nigeria.... can't just wait for ds power & money craving old politician to all die.... so as we youth we be the leaders of tomorrow as they do say..... NIGERIA CAN ONLY BE REFORMED IF NEW MINDS WHO KNOWS ALL WHAT THIS GIMMICKS OF DEMOCRACY ENTAILS... EXAMPLE OF SUCH PERSON IS THE MONIKER OF THIS THREAD...[/color] KUDOS to You SSBN[color=#990000]

freshest4live:

Not everything is about Biafra for Pete's sake.

..The genesis of this Bakassi/Cameroon fiasco is firmly rooted in the Biafran war of 1967-70...Gowon/FG promised Cameroon the Bakassi peninsula in exchange for their support and suprresion of Biafran secessionists led by Ojukwu..only to chicken out on the deal claiming there were no documented evidence to back up Cameroon's claims years later..

So the dude you quoted is spot on.

Ngokafor:



..The genesis of this Bakassi/Cameroon fiasco is firmly rooted in the Biafran war of 1967-70...Gowon/FG promised Cameroon the Bakassi peninsula in exchange for their support and suprresion of Biafran secessionists led by Ojukwu..only to chicken out on the deal claiming there were no documented evidence to back up Cameroon's claims years later..

So the dude you quoted is spot on.

Still, the thread isn't about Biafra, since the OP also spoke about cameroon's attack of Borno village and hinted(in his opinion) of their plan to get calabar and Borno, so don't make this another Biafran thread, it would become boring, biko.
Even Anglophone Cameroonians are not happy with the Government and their suffering under the regime of a dictator is something else, so don't think Cameroon is in unity and all is well there, the difference is that they are under the regime of a dictator who can do what he likes, and so you hardly find protest groups just like there was no lPOB or MASSOB in the Abacha regime.

Cameroun is not a placard carrying movement.

They should arrange Friendly War, that's all