I will like to prepare the minds of my good people of Anambra State and our friends as regards the forth coming Nov., 18th gubernatorial elections and the most likely outcome, to avoid unnecessary wasting of our hard earned money on gambling and betnaija activities. here are some facts that are likely to affect the elections and results, if all things are equal.

IPOB and Election boycott
Believe it or not so many people will not vote on the 18th November election, in the absence of any other event that may disrupt the elections, the PDP will be mostly negatively affected by the boycott. The reason is because, IPOB and their numerous supporters see the APGA government and the incumbent Governor as their enemies for Killing their members and supporters at Nkpor and other location in Anambra state in 2016 and will never vote for APGA if they change their mind to vote on that day. The same sentiment will work against the APC for the issues that followed operation python dance 11 and Nnamdi Kanu. most of these IPOB members and supporter if they will vote on the 18th of Nov., will vote PDP and if they don't vote, PDP will lose some good number of votes.

ZONING
It looks like a common understanding that it is the turn of the Anambra North senatorial district to govern the state at least for two terms, that is definitely going to affect Chief Osita Chidoka of the UPP negatively, Though a good candidate from the Central senatorial district, picked his running mate from Anambra South senatorial district, Orumba South LGA precisly the same LGA as the PDP candidate's running mate and the daughter of Dr Alex Ekwueme the former Vice President of Nigeria. don't forget that the APC candidate also picked his own running mate from the same South Senatorial district and the PPA candidate Ezeemo is from there also, trust trust me UPP candidate Chief Osita chidoka will not get meaningful votes from Anambra North and south senatorial districts, in His own central district, that is the senatorial district of the former Governors of Anambra state Dr Chris Ngige, Mr Peter Obi and even the incumbent deputy governor of the state. UPP and Chidoka may come 4th. APC, PDP, APGA candidates are all from the Anambra North Senatorial district, and the APC candidate is the one representing the APGA candidate's (The incumbent governor) constituency in the house of rep., it will be interesting to see how both of them will slug it out in that particular constituency, the PDP candidate may have upper hand in the remaining parts of the senatorial district .

Anambra North Seven LGA's
The votes will be shared between PDP, APGA, APC (PDP will win in Anambra North)

Anambra South Seven LGA's
The Votes will be shared between PDP, APGA (PDP will win in Anambra South)

Anambra Central Seven LGA's
The votes will be shared between PDP, APC, APGA, UPP (PDP will win in Anambra Central)

PDP
APGA
APC
UPP
PPA

(Note the PDP may come 2nd if the election boycott is observed ).

Let the best rigger win

APC=300,318
Apga=250,000
Upp=105.000
PDP=100,000

kcmichael:
APC=300,318
Apga=250,000
Upp=105.000
PDP=100,000

Your foolishness has APC writ all over it.
Total number of votes cast that day won't be up to 600,000.


The election boycott is real and only the candidate with a good GOTV operation and dedicated supporters will win,but its going to be close.

@OP,nice analysis. PDP may spring a surprise on many yet.Especially, from the Anambra South/Central Senatorial districts.Anambra North is going to be shared by the 3parties,with PDP having an edge in Ogbaru and Onitsha South areas.

kcmichael:
APC=300,318
Apga=250,000
Upp=105.000
PDP=100,000

APC won't score up to 20,000 votes,just like saying APGA would get 300000 votes in Katstina

HIGHESTPOPORI:
APC won't score up to 20,000 votes,just like saying APGA would get 300000 votes in Katstina

Wailers association of Nigeria,u guys boasted in Edo and onto but today how far.I just the laugh una because tony nwoye is the next Governor

kcmichael:



Wailers association of Nigeria,u guys boasted in Edo and onto but today how far.I just the laugh una because tony nwoye is the next Governor

I boasted in Bayelsa and Rivers, and APC lost,what's my concern with Edo and Ondo

Im all for election boycott. Im hoping that at least 70% of the Anambra electorate will not vote so as to make the boycott successful


Assuming this scenario plays out, this will mean that less than 30% of voters will decide who the governor will be.

I think that it will be a straight fight between PDP and APGA. APC has no chance in this election unless federal might is used to rig them in. APC as a party is generally hated across Igbo land and more so in Anambra.

A party cannot win elections where it or its candidate is not popular unless election are rigged. So APC can only hope on federal might.

Which leaves PDP and APGA. The problem with PDP is that they have never been united due to choice of candidate. Obaze is seen by many PDP members as having been parachuted into the party by Peter Obi. This has angered many in PDP with some of them openly endorsing APGA and vowing to work against PDP


Had Obiano had a little more sense and compassion, he would have won this election with a landslide. Had he shown more sensitivity when the armed forces were shooting down unarmed IPOB. It would have cost him nothing to query the methods of the military, institute a board of enquirey into the killings like Amnesty International adviced him and visited the wounded in hospital.

This would have gone a long way to reduce his enemies despite the boycott, and give him a far better chance.

I still think that APGA will win if elections are free and fair, however, PDP still has a chance of stealing victory .

martinif:
I will like to prepare the minds of my good people of Anambra State and our friends as regards the forth coming Nov., 18th gubernatorial elections and the most likely outcome, to avoid unnecessary wasting of our hard earned money on gambling and betnaija activities. here are some facts that are likely to affect the elections and results, if all things are equal.

IPOB and Election boycott
Believe it or not so many people will not vote on the 18th November election, in the absence of any other event that may disrupt the elections, the PDP will be mostly negatively affected by the boycott. The reason is because, IPOB and their numerous supporters see the APGA government and the incumbent Governor as their enemies for Killing their members and supporters at Nkpor and other location in Anambra state in 2016 and will never vote for APGA if they change their mind to vote on that day. The same sentiment will work against the APC for the issues that followed operation python dance 11 and Nnamdi Kanu. most of these IPOB members and supporter if they will vote on the 18th of Nov., will vote PDP and if they don't vote, PDP will lose some good number of votes.

ZONING
It looks like a common understanding that it is the turn of the Anambra North senatorial district to govern the state at least for two terms, that is definitely going to affect Chief Osita Chidoka of the UPP negatively, Though a good candidate from the Central senatorial district, picked his running mate from Anambra South senatorial district, Orumba South LGA precisly the same LGA as the PDP candidate's running mate and the daughter of Dr Alex Ekwueme the former Vice President of Nigeria. don't forget that the APC candidate also picked his own running mate from the same South Senatorial district and the PPA candidate Ezeemo is from there also, trust trust me UPP candidate Chief Osita chidoka will not get meaningful votes from Anambra North and south senatorial districts, in His own central district, that is the senatorial district of the former Governors of Anambra state Dr Chris Ngige, Mr Peter Obi and even the incumbent deputy governor of the state. UPP and Chidoka may come 4th. APC, PDP, APGA candidates are all from the Anambra North Senatorial district, and the APC candidate is the one representing the APGA candidate's (The incumbent governor) constituency in the house of rep., it will be interesting to see how both of them will slug it out in that particular constituency, the PDP candidate may have upper hand in the remaining parts of the senatorial district .

Anambra North Seven LGA's
The votes will be shared between PDP, APGA, APC (PDP will win in Anambra North)

Anambra South Seven LGA's
The Votes will be shared between PDP, APGA (PDP will win in Anambra South)

Anambra Central Seven LGA's
The votes will be shared between PDP, APC, APGA, UPP (PDP will win in Anambra Central)

PDP
APGA
APC
UPP
PPA

(Note the PDP may come 2nd if the election boycott is observed ).

Your analysis is false and fictitious.in anambra north,pdp will win ogbaru where obaze is from and onitsha north.apc will win anyamelum and onitsha south.apga will take oyi because the governor wife hails from there and anambra west.anambra east will be shared equally between apga and apc.but in total pdp will have more votes marginally because of bloc votes from ogbaru which is populous.
In anambra central,chief arthur eze will deliver dunukofia his fiefdom to apc.thats the least he can do,no one should argue this please.hon ekwunife would deliver ekwunife to apc,this is not debatable.anaocha is where obi is from and it is heavily populated so i see it going to pdp but chief umeh will garner some votes there for apga.idemili north anf south is where ngige is from and they produce the highest votes.ngige would deliver it to apc.awka south would easily vote for apga while awka north has been neglected by apga and they will pay obiano back by voting apc and pdp.
In anambra south,andy ubah will deliver the populous aguata to apc,ekwusigo is the personal fiefdom of sir emeka offor and he would deliver for apc now that hes really looking for contracts from buhari.nnewi north would go to apga,nnewi soutj would go to pdp.ihiala another populous council is controlled by hon emeka anohu of pdp and he would deliver for obaze but chief obijackson would garner a few votes for apga.orumba north would marginally go to pdp while apc would marginally take orumba south.
In summary,apc would take 9 lgas,pdp 6,apga 6.so apc would win.again,apc has more influential personalities supporting it and financial resources than other partiea by far.i expect a low turnout,voters may not exceed 200,000.

senatordave1:

Your analysis is false and fictitious.in anambra north,pdp will win ogbaru where obaze is from and onitsha north.apc will win anyamelum and onitsha south.apga will take oyi because the governor wife hails from there and anambra west.anambra east will be shared equally between apga and apc.but in total pdp will have more votes marginally because of bloc votes from ogbaru which is populous.
In anambra central,chief arthur eze will deliver dunukofia his fiefdom to apc.thats the least he can do,no one should argue this please.hon ekwunife would deliver ekwunife to apc,this is not debatable.anaocha is where obi is from and it is heavily populated so i see it going to pdp but chief umeh will garner some votes there for apga.idemili north anf south is where ngige is from and they produce the highest votes.ngige would deliver it to apc.awka south would easily vote for apga while awka north has been neglected by apga and they will pay obiano back by voting apc and pdp.
In anambra south,andy ubah will deliver the populous aguata to apc,ekwusigo is the personal fiefdom of sir emeka offor and he would deliver for apc now that hes really looking for contracts from buhari.nnewi north would go to apga,nnewi soutj would go to pdp.ihiala another populous council is controlled by hon emeka anohu of pdp and he would deliver for obaze but chief obijackson would garner a few votes for apga.orumba north would marginally go to pdp while apc would marginally take orumba south.
In summary,apc would take 9 lgas,pdp 6,apga 6.so apc would win.again,apc has more influential personalities supporting it and financial resources than other partiea by far.i expect a low turnout,voters may not exceed 200,000.

Aside rigging, it will be very difficult if not impossible for APC to win this Anambra Elections my brother, sentiment apart

martinif:
[s]I will like to prepare the minds of my good people of Anambra State and our friends as regards the forth coming Nov., 18th gubernatorial elections and the most likely outcome, to avoid unnecessary wasting of our hard earned money on gambling and betnaija activities. here are some facts that are likely to affect the elections and results, if all things are equal.

IPOB and Election boycott
Believe it or not so many people will not vote on the 18th November election, in the absence of any other event that may disrupt the elections, the PDP will be mostly negatively affected by the boycott. The reason is because, IPOB and their numerous supporters see the APGA government and the incumbent Governor as their enemies for Killing their members and supporters at Nkpor and other location in Anambra state in 2016 and will never vote for APGA if they change their mind to vote on that day. The same sentiment will work against the APC for the issues that followed operation python dance 11 and Nnamdi Kanu. most of these IPOB members and supporter if they will vote on the 18th of Nov., will vote PDP and if they don't vote, PDP will lose some good number of votes.

ZONING
It looks like a common understanding that it is the turn of the Anambra North senatorial district to govern the state at least for two terms, that is definitely going to affect Chief Osita Chidoka of the UPP negatively, Though a good candidate from the Central senatorial district, picked his running mate from Anambra South senatorial district, Orumba South LGA precisly the same LGA as the PDP candidate's running mate and the daughter of Dr Alex Ekwueme the former Vice President of Nigeria. don't forget that the APC candidate also picked his own running mate from the same South Senatorial district and the PPA candidate Ezeemo is from there also, trust trust me UPP candidate Chief Osita chidoka will not get meaningful votes from Anambra North and south senatorial districts, in His own central district, that is the senatorial district of the former Governors of Anambra state Dr Chris Ngige, Mr Peter Obi and even the incumbent deputy governor of the state. UPP and Chidoka may come 4th. APC, PDP, APGA candidates are all from the Anambra North Senatorial district, and the APC candidate is the one representing the APGA candidate's (The incumbent governor) constituency in the house of rep., it will be interesting to see how both of them will slug it out in that particular constituency, the PDP candidate may have upper hand in the remaining parts of the senatorial district .

Anambra North Seven LGA's
The votes will be shared between PDP, APGA, APC (PDP will win in Anambra North)

Anambra South Seven LGA's
The Votes will be shared between PDP, APGA (PDP will win in Anambra South)

Anambra Central Seven LGA's
The votes will be shared between PDP, APC, APGA, UPP (PDP will win in Anambra Central)

PDP
APGA
APC
UPP
PPA

(Note the PDP may come 2nd if the election boycott is observed ).[/s]

The election is between APGA and APC (Federal power).. You PDP jokers should go and rest

Though I don't support Willie Obiano... I think he'll win...... If that election is to be boycotted by Anambrarians... APC WILL WIN...... PDP at same time might clinch victory... You can never tell

senatordave1:

Your analysis is false and fictitious.in anambra north,pdp will win ogbaru where obaze is from and onitsha north.apc will win anyamelum and onitsha south.apga will take oyi because the governor wife hails from there and anambra west.anambra east will be shared equally between apga and apc.but in total pdp will have more votes marginally because of bloc votes from ogbaru which is populous.
In anambra central,chief arthur eze will deliver dunukofia his fiefdom to apc.thats the least he can do,no one should argue this please.hon ekwunife would deliver ekwunife to apc,this is not debatable.anaocha is where obi is from and it is heavily populated so i see it going to pdp but chief umeh will garner some votes there for apga.idemili north anf south is where ngige is from and they produce the highest votes.ngige would deliver it to apc.awka south would easily vote for apga while awka north has been neglected by apga and they will pay obiano back by voting apc and pdp.
In anambra south,andy ubah will deliver the populous aguata to apc,ekwusigo is the personal fiefdom of sir emeka offor and he would deliver for apc now that hes really looking for contracts from buhari.nnewi north would go to apga,nnewi soutj would go to pdp.ihiala another populous council is controlled by hon emeka anohu of pdp and he would deliver for obaze but chief obijackson would garner a few votes for apga.orumba north would marginally go to pdp while apc would marginally take orumba south.
In summary,apc would take 9 lgas,pdp 6,apga 6.so apc would win.again,apc has more influential personalities supporting it and financial resources than other partiea by far.i expect a low turnout,voters may not exceed 200,000.

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kcmichael:



Wailers association of Nigeria,u guys boasted in Edo and onto but today how far.I just the laugh una because tony nwoye is the next Governor

How is edo and Ondo similar to Anambra? Wake up bro every state has it peculiarities!