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On the 18th day of November, 2017 the good people of Anambra State will be going to the poll to elect another governor to govern their state. Although there are about 37 contestants for the governorship election, political observers opine that the election may just be a contest among Hon.Dr.Tonye Nwoye of the All Progressives Congree, APC, Gov.Willie Obiano of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, Mr.Oseleko Obaze of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. Others who may pose a surprise at the much expected poll are Chief Godwin Ezeemo of the Progressive Peoples Alliance, PPA and Mr. Osita Chidoka of the United Progressive Party, UPP.

Suanu’s Blog hereby considers key factors that will determine the chances of the aspirants as the date for the crucial election draws near.

1. Performance: Anambra people will have to look at the performance of the contestants either in political or personal capacity. This is because all the major contenders have at one time or the other occupied public offices or are into personal businesses. The values they have used their political or business capacities to add to the lives of Anambra people may just become a key deciding factor. Anambra people are expected to review the performance of Gov.Willie so far in line with his previous electioneering campaign promises; a failure in this regard may just shut the door at the incumbent. Same yardstick should be extended to the candidate of the APC as a federal lawmaker, the PDP candidate as a former Secretary to the Anambra State Government, the UPP Candidate as FRSC Boss and Aviation Minister. Their performances in those previous or current portfolios may provide the requisite guide to the Anambra People in the choice of their next governor.

2. The Power of Incumbency: No matter the view you may hold, the truth remains that a sitting governor still wills lots of power and influence which may strategically place him/her at an advantaged position in any election he/she is involved. Gov.Willie Obiano is the greatest beneficiary from this factor as He has been manipulating the people with the resources at his disposal by flagging off new projects, commissioning a few and making financial and material donations to various parts of the state in the course of his campaigns so as to boost his chances at the polls. He has also intimidated workers and made bogus promises to them so as to fetch their support.

3. Federal Might: The federal government still indirectly has a lot to do with whoever emerges as the winner in any election in the country. In times past, it has been observed that the federal government had left nothing to chances in ensuring that its candidate emerges victorious in most elections. This is evident in the manipulation of the electoral umpire and security agencies which play critical roles in an election. Although President Buhari obviously seems not to be directly interested in delivering any candidate of his party through any dubious means, there have been allegations by those termed as “presidential boys” sent to various states during elections to exercise federal might in delivering the candidate of the President’s party. For instance, Ex-Ekiti State Governor now a federal minister had many fingers pointing at him over the roles he played in the Governorship election in Ondo State. If the federal might is exercised in the Anambra Election, then Hon.Tony Nwoye will be the sole beneficiary.

4. Money: Indeed money answereth all things including luring the people during elections to vote massively for any given candidate. From the governorship election in Bayelsa State to Edo State to Ondo State among others, accusations of vote buying have surfaced and remained evident. The candidate who won is believed to have had or paid the highest amount to influence the votes of electorates. In the Anambra Election, the case may not be any different. It may just be another opportunity to flex financial muscle. The key candidates who can flex their financial muscle to a large extent are those of the APC, APGA and PDP. If Anambra People choose to accept such financial inducement and vote accordingly, then the candidate who is able to pay the highest sum may end up reaping the highest number of votes from the evil and anti-democratic venture.

5. The IPOB/Biafra Factor: The resurgence of the Biafra agitation has been a major issue that had characterized our public and political space for some time now. With a boycott order from the estranged leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and all that followed, there has been a serious fear concerning the effect of the Biafra agitation on the conduct of the Anambra Poll. The declaration and commencement of Operation Python Dance 11 and the subsequent disappearance of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu seems to have calmed the polity with his supporters vehemently scattered. Some contestants before the sudden disappearance of Kanu were already faking into supporting the Biafra agitation so as to reap from the perceived huge support base of Mr. Kanu. Particularly, the candidate of the UPP during the governorship debate organized by Channels TV had confessed to driving Nnamdi Kanu home after his release from prison and was believed to have been adopted by IPOB at some points ahead of the poll. Unfortunately, the IPOB influence which would have benefitted Mr.Chidoka of the UPP is nolonger feasible as many of its members have already destroyed their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) on the instruction on Nnamdi Kanu who had some time ago ordered all members of IPOB to destroy all national identities and symbols of Nigeria on a day tagged “Day of Rage”. If loyalists of IPOB who still by chance have PVCs obey the earlier boycott order, the candidate of the APC whose supporters appear not to be much of the Pro-IPOB may fetch him huge votes as they will be courageous and dogged enough to deliver their candidate by voting massively for him.

6. The Ojukwu/APGA Factor: Before now, the name Ojukwu had become an easy vehicle that politicians from Igboland and Anambra State particularly had used to swing votes in their favour. This is what candidates of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), a party formed by the Ojukwu have severally benefitted from. With some political parties given ethnic colorations, APGA is seen as a Pro-Igbo party and since Anambra State is the only state under its crow, some people are of the opinion that APGA must not be thrown into extinction by voting in another party in the state. If many Anambra People put this issue on the tapis, then Chief Obiano may just reap from that to get reelected.

7. The Role of the Youths: The role of the youths in any democratic process in Nigeria particularly cannot be overemphasized. In the Anambra Guber, the youths will like in other instances play key roles whether positive or negative. Positive in the instance that they could be dogged and rugged enough against all odds to ensure they vote for their candidates and facilitate his/her victory. A review of the governorship candidates indicate that Hon.Dr.Tony Nwoye enjoys the highest support of Anambra youths and this is just one of the reasons why the only man among the three top contenders considered to be a youth may pose a huge surprise in this crucial election.

8. Number Of Supporters With PVCs: The crowd of persons at electioneering campaigns in Nigeria doesn’t always translate into victory for any particular party or candidate. As many of those who grace campaign venues are either without the PVC which is a criterion for voting or may not just be courageous enough to take the risk to come out finally to vote during the election. The candidate who has massive supporters with PVCs who are hell-bent in ensuring they cast their votes may end up securing the victory.

9. Godfathers: The presence and roles of godfathers in our politics can never be overemphasized. So many politicians we see around have their engine rooms, their fore-runners, and their drum beaters who dictate the way they dance. Although some people are against godfathers as they believe most times they connive with their godsons to deny the people the dividends of democracy, not all godfathers may have the plan of milking the state treasury dry ordinarily. The Anambra case has not been any different as many candidates have been linked to godfathers. The loudest of them are the APC Candidate with Billionaire Prince Arthur Eze and the PDP Candidate with Ex-Governor Peter Obi who many believe is already campaigning for a third time in office. Godfathers usually sponsor their godsons by providing huge sums of money to finance their electioneering campaigns which many people believe are not grants but loans which are to be repaid from the state coffers if the candidate eventually wins even with huge increase, simply call it political investments. Apart from this, godsons also ride on the goodwill of their godfathers and benefit from their support bases and connections. As the election holds this Saturday, this factor will certainly increase the fortunes of those perceived to have godfathers.

10. Zoning : The deliberate plan to ensure even rotation of power at all levels in Nigeria is a key characteristics of our democracy. This principle even though unwritten in some instances gives a sense of belonging to almost every part of a state or the country. The issue of zoning is also ringing a bell in the Anambra Politics. And taking cognizance of this, many political parties strategically ensured their candidates came from the favoured senatorial zone. Particularly, candidates of the APC, PDP and APGA are from the same senatorial zone which makes the contest a very keen one. Of special significance is the fact that if the APGA Candidate wins, the end of his tenure will pave way for the next zone to produce the next governor. Similarly, the PDP Candidate has also promised to run for just one term in obedience to the zoning arrangement, although in politics anything can just happen once victory has been secured. The position of the APC candidate is however unknown in this regards.

How these considered factors will play out tomorrow lie with the thumbprints of the Anambra People.

It is expected that they will give peace a chance and elect their next governor with all consciousness knowing that it will have a direct bearing on their future. Also expected is that the electoral umpire will be true to its mandate and ensure the election is free, fair and credible and the security agencies will be as professional as necessary.

Vote Wisely.

Source: http://www.suanusblog.com/2017/11/anambra-guber-ten-key-factors-that-will.html