Punch columnist, Azuka has examined the chances of
success of President Muhammadu Buhari in the next
presidential election





Last week, President Muhammadu Buhari marked his
third year in office as Nigeria celebrated 19 unbroken
years of the Fourth Republic. With that, Buhari has one
year left of his Presidency unless he is re-elected in
2019.


However, the question is: What are the chances of
Buhari being re-elected? To his camp, Buhari’s re-
election is a fait accompli, as there is nobody in the
Nigerian political terrain that is capable of defeating
him. But the facts on the ground do not seem to
support that.


In 2003, 2007 and 2011 when Buhari contested under
the platforms of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (twice)
and the Congress for Progressive Change (once), he
could not win the presidential election, because his
popularity was restricted to the North-West and North-
East.


The map used in 2011 to represent the states won by
the three top candidates was very instructive. The
Nigerian map was divided into two with the top part
painted in blue to depict the states won by Buhari,
while the lower but larger part was painted in red to
depict the states won by Dr Goodluck Jonathan.


OsunState in the South-West, painted in yellow and looking
like Lesotho inside the map of South Africa, was won
by Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of
Nigeria. Buhari won the seven states of the North-West
with four of the six states of the North-East as well as
Niger State in the North-Central. Jonathan triumphed
because he won all but one state of the North-Central
as well as two states in the North-East (Adamawa and
Taraba). In addition, he had a good outing in the
North-West and North-East where Buhari won,
garnering a total of 8,351,472 votes in the North as
against Buhari’s 11,691,355. Conversely, while
Jonathan got 13,890,271 votes in the South, Buhari
got a meagre 391,922 votes.


By 2015, Buhari was able to overcome that
impediment for the first time by having the upper hand
in the North-Central and South-West states, with a
good showing in Edo State in the South-South. So his
support base got a more national outlook in 2015. The
reason was simple: In 2014, Buhari’s CPC merged with
the ACN, ANPP and a faction of the All Progressive
Grand Alliance to form the All Progressives Congress.
That helped to make Buhari attractive in the North-
Central and the South-West.


Even though corruption was a big campaign issue in
2015, lack of victory over Boko Haram was the biggest
albatross of Jonathan. The more people were killed or
abducted, the more Jonathan was seen as incapable of
being the President of Nigeria. There was the belief
that a retired military general like Buhari would solve
the Boko Haram problem better if elected.


Upon Buhari’s assumption of office on May 29, 2015,
it seemed as if Boko Haram intensified its killing
campaign. But one year after, there was a clear sign
that Boko Haram was no longer as dangerous and
destructive as it was before 2015. Even though Boko
Haram still kills people in Nigeria, the group’s capacity
to cause mayhem has been reduced drastically.


However, while Nigerians were heaving a sigh of relief
on the milestone recorded against Boko Haram,
another monster surfaced. This group is called the
killer herdsmen. This group has concentrated its killing
spree in the North-Central part of Nigeria, although it
still operates in the North-West, North-East and
occasionally in the South-West, South-East and South-
South. Almost on a daily basis, dozens of people are
massacred in their homes or farms or worship places
in different villages, towns and states. Their homes are
destroyed and set ablaze. Their farms suffer the same
fate. It seems the killers are eager to wipe out these
ethnic groups.


Surprisingly, in contrast to its hard stance on the Boko
Haram, the Buhari administration has treated the
herdsmen’s menace as “communal clashes” between
peripatetic herdsmen and farmers who are deemed not
hospitable and tolerant of their compatriots. There has
not been visible anger from the government against
these killings. Beyond the platitudes from the
Presidency occasionally when these killings occur,
there is nothing concrete done to ensure that these
killings don’t continue.


In addition to not being able to protect those who
have been victims of these killer herdsmen, the
security agencies have been accused of disarming the
locals and ensuring that they do not have even
machetes with which to protect themselves when
attacked. Some top retired military officers from the
zones under attack, like Lt. Gen. Theophilus Danjuma
(retd.) have frontally accused the “armed forces” of
colluding with the killers to wipe them out. The
invasion of a Roman Catholic church in Benue State in
April to kill two priests and 17 parishioners helped to
solidify the view that the killings had more to do with
ethnic cleansing than grazing rights.


The same way Jonathan was seen as weak on the
issue of Boko Haram killings is the way Buhari is now
seen as weak on the killer herdsmen’s issue. Buhari’s
case is even worse because it is seen more as
negligence and collusion than weakness.


Gradually, Buhari seems to be returning to the image
he had before becoming the torchbearer of the APC in
2015. His approval rating has recently dropped to
below 40 per cent. The area known as the Middle Belt
(which comprises the North-Central and some parts of
the North-West and North-East) is the key victim of
these killings. The voters in this zone helped to sway
the victory to Buhari in 2015. Today, most of them are
not happy with Buhari because of the way he has
handled the killings in their zone. The question is if
they will vote for Buhari again the way they did in
2015. If they don’t, then Buhari’s re-election bid will be
at risk.


The other critical group is the South-West, where
Buhari won all the states except Ekiti State. The
popularity of Buhari has not nosedived in the South-
West but it has dropped significantly. Some of those
who worked for Buhari’s victory in 2015 have shifted
their support. The House of Assembly by-election held
over the weekend in Oyo State, an APC stronghold, but
won by the PDP was an indicator that the APC is no
longer as popular as it was.


In addition, excluding politicians who move from the
PDP to the APC for pecuniary reasons and relevance, it
is rare to find an opinion moulder who was against
Buhari in 2015 but has become his supporter today.
But it is easy to see those who worked vigorously for
Buhari’s victory in 2015 lament how he has
disappointed them.


Also, some of the top politicians like the Senate
President, Dr Bukola Saraki, and some former
governors who moved from the PDP to the APC and
helped to sway votes in their states for Buhari, have
become disgruntled with the APC because of the
alleged unfair deal they have received.


Buhari’s acts of omission and commission have had a
dent on his popularity. Therefore, anybody saying that
Buhari’s re-election next year is a done deal is
swimming in an ocean of self-deceit.


Whoever the Peoples Democratic Party nominates will
have an impact on whether Buhari wins or not. But if
Buhari loses in 2019, it will not be so much because
the PDP candidate is a wonderful candidate. It will be
because Buhari and the APC promised the nation so
much, raised the hopes of the people and secured their
votes but departed from most of those promises,
replacing the promises with an urn of excuses.


Nigeria will be called a genuine democracy when it is
capable of voting out a party and voting in another
party in a continuous cycle. That way, parties and
candidates will learn never to take the people for
granted.


-Twitter @BrandAzuka

azonwuka@yahoo.com

0809-8727-263 (sms only)

We want a new Leader

The question should be:

Would Buhari agree to a presidential debate?

Your answer is as good as mine.....

The other,lai Mohammed almost slapped the man from Arise TV....


tbh,With the way things are spiralling out of control,the nation needs a new and fresh DRIVER.

We want a new leader.


Kingsley Moghalu, former CBN deputy Governor is the man.

God forbid!