Asked on Quora.

All have a market cap of between US$450-900B, so they’re, ballpark, similarly sized.

Ok, so Alphabet Google has leading positions in too many right spaces (mobile OS, search, video, driverless cars, cloud, etc…) for it to die. Definitely not going to fall first.

Amazon is killing it in retail, and it benefits from a huge network effect which is a huge moat against competitors. Further, consumers are only going to buy more and more physical items online.

The recent Facebook scandal exposes vulnerabilities, but Facebook benefits from massive massive (not a typo) network effects with 1/3 of the planet using it regularly, with Instagram and WhatsApp not far behind. All 3 have and will adapt to changes fast, in-part because they’re, for the most part, a single website and/or app, which makes them resilient.

The above 3 are presently strongly founder-influenced and that’s important because such companies are much more likely to make bold decisions. That’s because founders, in general, tend to be risk-takers by the very fact they quit their jobs and went for it, they tend to have greater confidence especially when it comes to a business they’ve founded (it’s their baby), and founders tend not to be yes-men, which is what tends to get you promoted as an employee.

So, we’re left with the two founder-influence-free companies, Microsoft and Apple.

Microsoft didn’t fall when it was run worse than a smart 15-year-old could have run it for over a decade. Why did it survive? Because it had a near-monopoly on the desktop, which it still has albeit weaker than before, and was deeply ingrained in enterprise, which it still is. Microsoft is a diversified, growing company, and now with a great leader.

The first to fall, in my view, will be Apple, the biggest of the 5 in terms of market cap. Here is why:

#1. It doesn’t have founder-influence.

#2. Perhaps following from point , it hasn’t innovated much since Jobs’ death. Apple only got to where it is today because it kept bringing out literally revolutionary products, one after the other - it no longer does that.

#3. It’s a B2C business, unlike Microsoft which is mainly B2B. Consumers are fickle.

#4. Apple builds end-to-end software-hardware solutions, just like failures Nokia, BlackBerry, and Palm did - it’s a more vulnerable model than software.

#5. Apple is very iPhone-dependent - not only in terms of revenues but also in the way it drives the Apple ecosystem. The iPhone is piling in revenues, but with Android dominating in terms of market share and that domination increasing, the iPhone is increasingly niche, albeit in a massive market, and that poses risks. And there are worrying early signs here - iPhone sales have been falling.

#6. Apple built an incredible brand on the back of revolutionary and industry-propelling beautiful products. Today both advantages are gone. Regarding beauty, just compare Samsung’s S8 to the iPhone 8, which is still Apple’s best selling phone range and looks embarrassing in comparison, or Microsoft’s Surface Studio with an iMac. Apple’s brand is at risk of being hammered in the coming decade.

But just bear in mind - they’re all massive companies with powerful brands and damn smart people running them - none are going anywhere soon…

What's your opinion on this??

Credit:
*Asim Qureshi, former vice president at Morgan Stanley

I didnt even read....
Get a job dude
Time used in arranging this negative trash could av been used in uplifting or productive ventures

I think facebook is the first but in a long term not soon. selling products is the best business model
https://www.wzayef.net/new-job

I didnt even read....
Get a job dude
Time used in arranging this negative trash could av been used in uplifting or productive ventures
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