ETICS2019 POLLS: LETS DO THE POLITICAL ARITHMETIC

Copied from: Habib Bello

The last one month has been turbulent for both the ruling party APC and the opposition PDP.

PDP suffered a humiliating defeat in the Ekiti governorship election losing to APC. With that victory, APC has cornered the whole of the South-west block.
From 2015 till date,PDP has lost 12 states to APC making them the new opposition party in the land.

But in a series of defections which the Benue state Governor started last week, APC lost three states to PDP in a bounce. They are:
Benue, Kwara and sokoto in that order.

With these political re-alignments, let’s examine the chances of these two major political parties in the country in the coming general elections.

First, what is the constitutional requirement for an outright victory in a presidential election?
Apart from winning the highest number of votes, a candidate must also win 25% of the total votes in two-thirds of the 36 States and the FCT to ensure an outright victory. Two-third of 36 states equals to 24 states.

After the current defections, here is how things stand
APC now controls 22 states while PDP controls 13 states with APGA controlling 1 state.
APC has 100% control of the South-West
85% control of the North-East
85% control of North-West
70% control of North-Central
90% control of the Federal Capital Territory controlling 5 out of the 6 area councils(Local Governments)

Let's also not forget that APC won Abuja in the last presidential elections.

Even though PDP controls Gombe state, APC won Gombe in the last general elections.

While PDP controls
95% of south-south
95% of south-east
30% of North-Central
0 % of south-west
25% of north-west
0% of north-east

If APC can retain these 23 states and win majority votes there, all they would need to ensure victory in the general elections is the required 25%of the total votes in two more states they currently don’t control.

APC will be looking at Gombe, Sokoto, Kwara and Taraba States.

On the other hand, PDP would have to make up grounds in 11 states and also win in at least two major political zones(North-West, South west or Southeast and win 50% of at least two other zones to ensure victory.

A win for PDP in the south-south and south -east alone will not be enough.

In terms of control of geo-political zones, APC has the advantage of controlling zones that have larger registered voters, namely Kano in the North-west and Lagos in the South-west.

That means PDP would have to present a presidential candidate that is more popular than Buhari in Kano and Lagos to have any chance of wrestling those two zones from APC

For instance, the votes in Kano, Lagos, Oyo, Borno and Niger states will erase the total number of votes in the entire south-east and south south.

This means APC only needs to maintain victory in their stronghold of Northwest, South-west and North-east to get 50% votes in the North central where they currently control 70%.

Meanwhile, PDP has a tougher task of re-claiming the North-west, South-west and North-east and then get at least 50% votes in North-central while retaining South-east and South-south

Forget all these, election is not mathematics.

abdussalam1:
ETICS2019 POLLS: LETS DO THE POLITICAL ARITHMETIC

Copied from: Habib Bello

The last one month has been turbulent for both the ruling party APC and the opposition PDP.

PDP suffered a humiliating defeat in the Ekiti governorship election losing to APC. With that victory, APC has cornered the whole of the South-west block.
From 2015 till date,PDP has lost 12 states to APC making them the new opposition party in the land.

But in a series of defections which the Benue state Governor started last week, APC lost three states to PDP in a bounce. They are:
Benue, Kwara and sokoto in that order.

With these political re-alignments, let’s examine the chances of these two major political parties in the country in the coming general elections.

First, what is the constitutional requirement for an outright victory in a presidential election?
Apart from winning the highest number of votes, a candidate must also win 25% of the total votes in two-thirds of the 36 States and the FCT to ensure an outright victory. Two-third of 36 states equals to 24 states.

After the current defections, here is how things stand
APC now controls 22 states while PDP controls 13 states with APGA controlling 1 state.
APC has 100% control of the South-West
85% control of the North-East
85% control of North-West
70% control of North-Central
90% control of the Federal Capital Territory controlling 5 out of the 6 area councils(Local Governments)

Let's also not forget that APC won Abuja in the last presidential elections.

Even though PDP controls Gombe state, APC won Gombe in the last general elections.

While PDP controls
95% of south-south
95% of south-east
30% of North-Central
0 % of south-west
25% of north-west
0% of north-east

If APC can retain these 23 states and win majority votes there, all they would need to ensure victory in the general elections is the required 25%of the total votes in two more states they currently don’t control.

APC will be looking at Gombe, Sokoto, Kwara and Taraba States.

On the other hand, PDP would have to make up grounds in 11 states and also win in at least two major political zones(North-West, South west or Southeast and win 50% of at least two other zones to ensure victory.

A win for PDP in the south-south and south -east alone will not be enough.

In terms of control of geo-political zones, APC has the advantage of controlling zones that have larger registered voters, namely Kano in the North-west and Lagos in the South-west.

That means PDP would have to present a presidential candidate that is more popular than Buhari in Kano and Lagos to have any chance of wrestling those two zones from APC

For instance, the votes in Kano, Lagos, Oyo, Borno and Niger states will erase the total number of votes in the entire south-east and south south.

This means APC only needs to maintain victory in their stronghold of Northwest, South-west and North-east to get 50% votes in the North central where they currently control 70%.

Meanwhile, PDP has a tougher task of re-claiming the North-west, South-west and North-east and then get at least 50% votes in North-central while retaining South-east and South-south

Young man, your so-called ''arithmetic'' is so flawed that it doesn't represent the present reality on ground. You based those narratives on the status quo and 2015 general elections, what you failed to include is how the performance APC in the last 3 years would affect the next elections, the feeling of disappointment against APC in those places they control presently. The perception of people about APC right now does not favour them and I'm not talking about social media alone but the ordinary man on the street including where APC is ruling presently. So it's not about where they won in 2015 because things have changed and people's eyes are opened.