As can be seen from the 4 electoral maps below, a pattern is very obvious in Buhari's electoral history.

In 2003 when Buhari was up against a southerner, he won the north east and north west but lost the north central and entire south.
This repeated itself in 2011 when he was also up against another southerner. He lost north central and south and won north east and north west.

In 2007 when he was up against another north westerner, he only won north east and lost the north west to his brother Yar'adua. As usual he also lost north central and entire south

Now in 2015, with serious gang up against GEJ who was a southerner and with south west alignment to north, he won his normal north east and north west which he has always won when ever he is up against a southerner.
Tinubu delivered south west.
But the tricky part was that it was in fact the north central that was the swing region in 2015. They split their votes 50-50.


In 2019, with Buhari up against a fellow northerner and with the south west still being delivered by Tinubu and judging from the above analysis, the following will happen:

1. Buhari will lose one of the 2 core northern regions, depending on who the PDP choose as candidate. If they choose from north west then Buhari will lose north west. If they choose from north east then Buhari will lose north east.

2. The north central which has been the swing region will vote the PDP because of herdsmen killing and because of defections of their heavy weight politicians. And also because of whatever reason has made them to be rejecting Buhari prior to 2015.

3. The south west will vote Buhari.

4. South east and south south will always vote for PDP.

Therefore, for Buhari to win in 2019, he will have to depend on rigging in SE, SS, and NC. He will win the SW but he will have to also try and Rig either NW or NE, depending on the region the PDP candidate is from.
Otherwise Buhari will lose 2019. His only sure base are SW and one of the core northern regions. The remaining 4 regions are up for grabs by PDP.

Hehehehe

modelmike7:
Hehehehe

debunk the analysis if u can

Presidential election goes the direction North Central votes

Buhari will lose in 2019 because he has already lost North Central. The herdsmen killings means Buhari will be lucky to get 20% in North Central

What rubbish is this?.
Recording northern votes for OBJ and GEJ. Absolute lies. GEJ never won a single NE or NW state fairly. All were rigged. OBJ has never won a single state in Nigeria by himself ever.
All were rigged.

What analysis are you doing with elections under a Buhari in the Aso Rock. As for middle belt votes, only Benue and Plateau are at risk, they are both not up to 700,000. Kwara & Kogi are going APC. Buhari will make shocking inroads into SEE and SS. If you think Igbos love Saraki, Atiku or Tambuwal, wait for when some interesting info is released to them.

Any intelligent person will admit that only GOD can take Buhari out of office. If you want to attempt to remove him, try prayers...but I think GOD already gave him 4 more years.
All these lies are raising false hopes

see permutation..deceive yourself you hear......

SternProphet:
What rubbish is this?.
Recording northern votes for OBJ and GEJ. Absolute lies. GEJ never won a single NE or NW state fairly. All were rigged. OBJ has never won a single state in Nigeria by himself ever.
All were rigged.

What analysis are you doing with elections under a Buhari in the Aso Rock. As for middle belt votes, only Benue and Plateau are at risk, they are both not up to 700,000. Kwara & Kogi are going APC. Buhari will make shocking inroads into SEE and SS. If you think Igbos love Saraki, Atiku or Tambuwal, wait for when some interesting info is released to them.

Any intelligent person will admit that only GOD can take Buhari out of office. If you want to attempt to remove him, try prayers...but I think GOD already gave him 4 more years.
All these lies are raising false hopes

At the bolded?

Ndonu101:
Presidential election goes the direction North Central votes

Buhari will lose in 2019 because he has already lost North Central. The herdsmen killings means Buhari will be lucky to get 20% in North Central

you are right...that is the central point of the election...

How market?

selemempe:
debunk the analysis if u can

How market, someone asked you above?

selemempe:
At the bolded?

Serial loser

Afamed:

How market, someone asked you above?

Therefore, for Buhari to win in 2019, he will have to depend on rigging in SE, SS, and NC. He will win the SW but he will have to also try and Rig either NW or NE, depending on the region the PDP candidate is from.
Otherwise Buhari will lose 2019. His only sure base are SW and one of the core northern regions. The remaining 4 regions are up for grabs by PDP.

selemempe:
Therefore, for Buhari to win in 2019, he will have to depend on rigging in SE, SS, and NC. He will win the SW but he will have to also try and Rig either NW or NE, depending on the region the PDP candidate is from.
Otherwise Buhari will lose 2019. His only sure base are SW and one of the core northern regions. The remaining 4 regions are up for grabs by PDP.

This one is still releasing server results

Bros wake up, we are now in July, 2019.

selemempe:
Therefore, for Buhari to win in 2019, he will have to depend on rigging in SE, SS, and NC. He will win the SW but he will have to also try and Rig either NW or NE, depending on the region the PDP candidate is from.
Otherwise Buhari will lose 2019. His only sure base are SW and one of the core northern regions. The remaining 4 regions are up for grabs by PDP.