2011 presidential elections southwest dont have any representative in the ruling party.

pdp won presidential elections with ease plus obj/ jonathan factor and everybody knew Tinubu also worked for jonathan in 2011.
pdp won LAGOS,OGUN,OYO, ONDO ,EKITI, except OSUN STATE.

but gubernatorial elections in southwest is always yoruba affairs it cannot be used as a yardstick to determine who they vote in presidential elections excepts they have a strong candidate constesting.

2011 gubernatorial elections Pdp lost in all the 6 states that make up south west region.one would think with the massive votes pdp recorded in the presidential elections it will translate to electoral victory.
ACN won five states namely LAGOS ,OGUN,OYO,OSUN AND EKITI,while labour party took ONDO.


2015 was obviously different from 2011 in the sense that the yoruba Acn is in alliance with another force in north cpc which will present both yoruba and northern candidates togehter under the alliance .
2015 pdp presidential election in southwest was without the regions forces e.g Obasanjo and Tinubu. Apc could have recorded a landslide victory in southwest if not for the factors like
1) jonathan a southerner and incumbent
2)pdp has 2 states under control
3) pdp spent heavily to be able to get high percentage of votes


2019 elections : ACN Caucus of APC has already projected all southwest states under the ruling party .
pdp will not enjoy the support of the regional forces e.g obasanjo, tinubu, amosun, bisi akande ,fashola and fayemi ..
this time around pdp dont have any states under control,pdp doesnt enjoy power of incumbency, pdp doesnt have jonathan factor being a southerner.if pdp eventually pick an igbo as running mate for atiku ..
this translate to battle of IGBO (vp) VS YORUBA (vp) the incumbent. meaning both regions will vote enmass for own.
voters turnount recorded in south south region will reduced to atleast 60% compare to when jonathan contested.this time around south south regional forces re divided between apc and pdp unlike 2015.
the likes of akapbio, uduaghan,ogboru ,nsima ekere re major additions to apc forces in south south region like oshomole,timpire slyva, rotimic ameachi, magnus abe,dakuku peterside, dumo lulu briggs e.t.c pdp cannot record 80% votes in
south south compare to 95% they got in 2015.


Atiku and Buhari have both contested together in presidential election twice under different platforms .buhari has always won atiku in a landslide victory in north east and northwest region without federal might.
atiku can only reduce buhari votes in core north to 75% which is not enough to guarantee him victory.

Atiku cannot defeat buhari though the votes might be close unlike before

Atiku will win all south east, south south, adamawa, taraba,benue,may be plateau.buhari will win 21 states.