abduljabbar4:


Okay, so are igbos the only ones in the south east? you guys keep forgetting everything you say also applies to you. The north east from my little observation is going to give a lot more votes to Buhari. You dont know what ending boko haram means to them but i dont blame you cos you live in the south and you have no idea.

Maybe this thread of ours will help you make less noise cos WE WILL MOCK YOU GUYS just like your unfortunate 'ancestors'. I have added you to my list.

https://www.nairaland.com/2273958/digging-out-tanoids-season-1

Make sure you check other seasons

tuniski:

I am a full blooded northerner and my state. (kwara) and region NC is pdp lockdown. 2015 was a first time gamble on buhari that has turned terribly wrong! 2019 is year of correction of 2015 error.

Kaduna state where I am right now is very fluid. Elrufai Likely to be defeated and buhari can't get 60%+. Zamfara is threatening protest vote. Sokoto,kano and jigawa will be exciting!
Need. I say more?
#BuharitoDaura2019 irreversible!

tuniski:

I am a full blooded northerner and my state. (kwara) and region NC is pdp lockdown. 2015 was a first time gamble on buhari that has turned terribly wrong! 2019 is year of correction of 2015 error.

Kaduna state where I am right now is very fluid. Elrufai Likely to be defeated and buhari can't get 60%+. Zamfara is threatening protest vote. Sokoto,kano and jigawa will be exciting!
Need. I say more?
#BuharitoDaura2019 irreversible!

abduljabbar4:


Lol

im actually living in Kaduna and i am from Zaria so slow down. Its truel that el rufai has lost some amount of popularity but most of the people i know were banking on Ramalan who lost the primaries and most people(the ones i know and the ones i see on tv and radio stations) prefer el rufai to attahiru. Buharis popularity is just as solid as it was in the past.

In that same Kwara that you are talking about, i havw friends there and i will ask them some time but even with that, rilwayne and demzie wont have talked avout it if the situation is like the way you are painting it to be. Like i said, NC can go either ways while the SW, NE and NW are guaranteed For Buhari. If you have been to Kano and just tried a mini sampling you would know how much people Atiku in the north. As in real hatred.

SternProphet:


Let me add to this. I will mention just one state, Adamawa. Who do you think will win Adamawa?. Atiku abi?. NO, NO, NO.
The Adamawa Governor just had a meeting with Osinbajo yesterday or today, I don't remember. Do you think the meeting was to discuss Nollywood movies

I think the meeting was about how to secure the State for APC and also maybe how to revover the SIP funds that were diverted by some APC executives in the State. Anyway, APC is not sleeping even in Atiku's, Tambuwal's and Kwankwaso's backyard. I expect Kwankwaso to defect back to APC soon or cone to an arrangement. He has EFCC case on his neck.

duwdu:


I can translate the part in the quote I've put in italics, thus: "he won't get even 25% in states such as: Bauchi, Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina; northerners are much more aware of Atiku['s character] than they think; he will not win even in Adamawa."

I don try abeg. there is a job opening at bbc hausa lol, you tried

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abduljabbar4:


Lol

im actually living in Kaduna and i am from Zaria so slow down. Its true that el rufai has lost some amount of popularity but most of the people i know were banking on Ramalan who lost the primaries and most people(the ones i know and the ones i see on tv and radio stations) prefer el rufai to attahiru. Buharis popularity is just as solid as it was in the past.

In that same Kwara that you are talking about, i have friends there and i will ask them some time but even with that, rilwayne and demzie would have talked about it if the situation is like the way you are painting it to be. Like i said, NC can go either ways while the SW, NE and NW are guaranteed For Buhari. If you have been to Kano and just tried a mini sampling you would know how much people hate Atiku in the north. As in real hatred. Even Kwankwasiyya fans (who are obviously more in number than Atiku's supporters) would rather go for Buhari than Atiku even if Kwankwaso himself endorsed atiku. Thats why i was scared of kwankwaso during the pdp primaries. What a relief!

abduljabbar4:


Atiku isnt even that popular in Adamawa. Our brothers just make assumptions and believe in them. One fool yesterday was saying that Atiku would win Osun because his wife is from there. Seriously

tuniski:

Very good I knew you must be based in NW for you to be cocky about buhari. Buhari even with sak of 2015 had 7.1m to 1.3m in NW, the margin will decline in 2019.

I repeat saraki will deliver kwara 100% to pdp and if apc will anything, it will be only my LG.

Kaduna is clearly a battleground for 2019.

Bauchi is threatening protest vote cos most definitely the apc will lose the state in guber.

To upturn buhari's 2.5m marginal victory Of 2015, pdp only need to flip 1.251m votes all things Equal.

Buhari has lost more than 5m votes since 2015!

CilicMarin:


The same analysis failed you in Kogi, Edo, Ondo, Ekiti and Osun, yet you won't give up!

Haba!

tuniski:

Stop using staggered elections as your conclusive basis. The general elections of 2019 will shock you guys.

Edo,ondo,ekiti,Osun kogi Elections actually showed how vulnerable apc is!

tuniski:

Atiku will win Adamawa! And had kwankwaso won the ticket,he would have won kano!
You people are overrating buhari!

Only NW is safe for buhari ooooo. Don't use zaria or the rest of NW as the reflection of the entire north oooooo.

Buhari's cult followership is largely a north Western thing.!

tuniski:

Stop using staggered elections as your conclusive basis. The general elections of 2019 will shock you guys.

Edo,ondo,ekiti,Osun kogi Elections actua
lly showed how vulnerable apc is!

tuniski:

Very good I knew you must be based in NW for you to be cocky about buhari. Buhari even with sak of 2015 had 7.1m to 1.3m in NW, the margin will decline in 2019.

I repeat saraki will deliver kwara 100% to pdp and if apc will anything, it will be only my LG.

Kaduna is clearly a battleground for 2019.

Bauchi is threatening protest vote cos most definitely the apc will lose the state in guber.

To upturn buhari's 2.5m marginal victory Of 2015, pdp only need to flip 1.251m votes all things Equal.

Buhari has lost more than 5m votes since 2015!

abduljabbar4:


i can equally say you are cocky about atiku because you are an ipoop sympathiser.

I think im getting tired of your rants. Lets see how irrelevant people like saraki will drive pdp to power and try to remember how a lion was turned into a whimpering chicken. Remind me the last time fayose insulted Buhari

CilicMarin:


Vulnerable you say? Three PDP states were snatched by the APC, and you call it vulnerable? how old are you?

tuniski:

You are the ranter and stop calling people who are different from you IPOB, it negate civil discurse. Imagine if I start calling you names for your political view!b

tuniski:

Childish! Kwara,sokoto and Benue have been snatched with the NASS yet, you can't see. Well it is difficult for a blind Person shaaa!

SternProphet:


You are not being honest my friend. Buhari will never lose the North.
Even El Rural for all his progressive/ controversial policies won't lose the governorship race. What will eventually push the North into Buhari's hands is the SE support for Atiku and I say it, be very careful with statements and control your enthusiasm.
Once the North perceives Atiku as the SE candidate they will take the exact opposite direction.

A big handicap for Atiku is Governors. Even PDP governors. Without governors, you are not winning elections. Buhari has almost 85% of governors working for him.

Also, to win elections in Nigeria you need to win the NW & SW votes but PDP has foolishly made Tambuwal lose to Atiku. They will pay the price and it will hurt.

People have to realize that it is a game of chess. In any case, I don't see Buhari losing. There are enough "incentives" going to poor people all over to swing the elections.

CilicMarin:


Remove Kwara and Sokoto( Buhari has been winning this state, irrespective of the party in power since 2003)

buhariguy:
i have be saying it for long that thief atiku can not win his local government.

tuniski:

Very good I knew you must be based in NW for you to be cocky about buhari. Buhari even with sak of 2015 had 7.1m to 1.3m in NW, the margin will decline in 2019.

I repeat saraki will deliver kwara 100% to pdp and if apc will anything, it will be only my LG.

Kaduna is clearly a battleground for 2019.

Bauchi is threatening protest vote cos most definitely the apc will lose the state in guber.

To upturn buhari's 2.5m marginal victory Of 2015, pdp only need to flip 1.251m votes all things Equal.

Buhari has lost more than 5m votes since 2015!

tuniski:


Atiku is nigeria's candidate that will be Nigerian president while Buhari is an ethnic champion that has been nepotistic in govt! Thank God we all can see that buhar,i is essentially banking on his ethno-religious northern base to win but, forget that 2003,2007 and 2011 they couldn't win it for him. It took help from the so called kudu/arne for him to win in 2015.

Nowenuse:


Religion will not be useless in much of the north.

Hausa fulanis know or think Buhari is a better muslim who is heavily pro-Arewa.
Northern Christians know Atiku is more of a liberal muslim and will definitely be a better leader to them.

Liberal northern muslims like those of Kogi, Kwara and to an extent Niger & Nasarawa are the only ones I can really say religion is useless to here.

CilicMarin:


Vulnerable you say? Three PDP states were snatched by the APC, and you call it vulnerable? how old are you?

abdulwastecx:


This man is always on top of his game, you really know the region thoroughly.

People will be shocked with how the election will pan out, the only saving grace for Buhari in the north-west and Nigeria is the way people have him to a defender of Islam in the region.

People don't know that the Northwest and east is home to millions of liberal Muslim, those whose means of livelihood has been affected greatly by Buhari poor economic performance, these set of people will happily vote for atiku .
My projection will be Atiku/Buhari
Northwest 35/65
Northeast 45/55
Northcentral 60/40
Southwest 55/45 100/0
Southeast 85/15
South-south 75/25

duwdu:


Why are you guys always dovetailing to FaceBook? How many real voters over all - and especially from the north - are on FaceBook or Twitter?

Won't past and recent results from actual elections, compared to polls and projections on FaceBook and other social media platforms, cure you guys? Haba.

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abduljabbar4:


Im very glad that more and more of my Northern brothers are joining this forum. We need to help clear the brains of some pdp supporters who think everything starts and ends from their mere Biased assumptions

ProudBornoBoy:

Where was Atiku when BOKO HARAM were destroying.... PDP does not exist in Borno..... We detest even the name.

They killed our families now they want us to vote for them.

abduljabbar4:


Ending boko haram is the major factor why atiku cant smell the north east. Those yeasterrn analysts think atiku will share votes will buhari just because he is also a northerner. They are in for a great surprise

QuotaSystem:
To put it plainly, apart from Taraba, Benue, Plateau & Nassarawa States, President Muhammadu Buhari is poised to sweep the votes of the remaining 15 northern states, for the following reasons:

1. The "Amana" factor.

A lot of southerners often wonder the basis of the cult-like following PMB commands in the North - the reason is not far fetched.

The Hausa-fulani people in particular, place a huge value on the concept of "Amana" (trust/to hold in trust), a value which Buhari's track record of integrity (whether disputed or not) is clearly aligned with. Despite media propaganda, most of these people who are more politically informed than their average southern counterparts, are aware that not a single charge of corruption has stuck on their revered PMB, amidst corruption allegations among his cronies. Atiku loses massively in this respect because of his track record of corruption (BPE, Haliburton, $16b power scam, unexplained source of wealth etc.) which presents him as an untrustworthy leader to most northerners.

Furthermore, PMB's seemingly north-centric agenda regarding appointments, infrastructure projects (roads, rails, ports) and focus on agriculture assures most northerners that their interests would be well protected under his administration, in contrast to Atiku who is perceived to be likely to make concessions and appeasements to the East whose support he is mostly riding on going by recent trends. Atiku also loses big in this regard.

2. The South Eastern VP Factor

If Atiku gives in to the clamor for his running mate to emerge from the East, then he stands to lose massive votes from the core north for obvious reasons.

Firstly, the deep political antagonism and anti-north stance from Igbos, which has characterized the national space and been amplified since the defeat of Jonathan and rise of IPOB/Nnamdi Kanu and their hate speech, will deeply hurt Atiku's chances because not only will it mean the North would be taking the extreme bigotry, insults and political antagonism from the East right on the chin with no consequences, it would also mean the possibility of an Igbo successor to Atiku - a people known for their contempt for Nigeria's unity and secessionist aspirations.

In addition, a SE VP will also cost Atiku significant SW votes - a sub-region with the second largest number of registered voters (14 million).

3. The Boko Haram Factor

In sharp contrast to the generally held notion among some in the south that Atiku would sweep the NE because it's his home region, the strides recorded by PMB in the fight against Boko Haram heavily neutralizes that effect. I am not talking about social media noise, but the perceptions of people directly affected by Boko Haram activities and are experiencing a gradual return to normalcy since PMB took office.

Yola (Adamawa) for example, Atiku's own home capital, has experienced peace since PMB's onslaught on BH like they never saw since Boko Haram emerged under the past PDP administration - this was formerly a ghost town that used to suffer deadly BH attacks daily with dusk-till-dawn curfews, which has since been lifted and attacks reduced to suicide bombings and guerrilla attacks on soft targets, which are reducing on a monthly basis. This was a state that had several LGA's under Boko Haram's rule during PDP's administration and the people aren't quick to forget the corruption that marred the fight against BH in Dasuki fashion.

Maiduguri is back to it's bustling state with dozens of NGO's providing humanitarian services to help with the ongoing rebuilding efforts, people are now free to watch El-Kanem FC matches in the township stadium, and trans-border economic trade (mostly fish) is gradually being restored. The return of the Chibok and Dapchi girls also adds points to PMB's profile in the sub-region. If by God's grace the FG is able to secure the release of Leah Sharibu then that would be a hat-trick. I personally spoke to a "Kube" (traditional hausa cap) dealer from Borno recently and these were the exact sentiments he expressed as he professed support for Buhari's candidacy.

Final Note

It is very valid to permute that the votes from the 4 excluded northern states (Benue, Plateau, Nassarawa, Taraba) will be shared by both candidates as federal might will play out (both parties will rig anyway). With 19 million registered voters in the North West and 10 million in the North East which are largely homogenic, it is safe to say anyone who loses these key regions has lost the 2019 elections. With another 14 million registered voters in the SW which is APC's stronghold and Atiku's slant towards choosing a SE VP, his campaign team should be very worried.

Note that this is not to say Atiku will not record a sizable number of votes from the Northern States, but the ratio will pale in significance to Buhari's potential landslide victory in the region. - Q.S