elninosanz:

There is a lot of armchair analysis being done without any data, historical context or empirical election modelling. I have done the empirical analysis and looked at historical data and voting patterns. This election will be based on 2 things turnout and organizational/Party structure. Consider the following.

1. Atiku's power base is the South East and South South. Do you know that despite the love for their brother Jonathan only 35% of them came out to vote. Do you also know that LESS Ibo's registered for this election than the last election. Do you also know that the South East has the LOWEST number of registered voters in Nigeria. If 35% of Igbos come out to vote like the last election ( and this is likely to be lower because no one can convince me that Igbos will be more excited about Atiku than Jonathan) and Atiku gets 95% of those 35% that come out to vote then he will have only 2.3 million votes. In 2011 Jonathan had 22.5 million voted and in 2015 Buhari had 15.4 million votes to win. If we are to assume that Atiku needs a similar number to win the election then 2.3 million from his biggest base is not enough.

2. We all know that the South West will be a hotly contested battleground. Do you know that in 2015 the South West had the LOWEST turnout of all the 6 regions with 31%. That means that only 31% of registered voters came out to vote. And this was in an election where people where excited about Change. The truth is that the upper class and the elite middle class DON'T vote in the South West. How many of us can spend 1 hour in the sun for Accreditation, wait for the ballot boxes and tools to come and then wait for another 2 -4 hours to vote. Unfortunately for Atiku this is his voting block. APC is in firm control of the South West and you can be rest assured that they will spare no expense to ensure that the lower class vote for Buhari. Don't also discount the fact that they have the rigging apparatus in place. Note also that despite the huge sums of money Jonathan spent in 2015 to different Obas, OPC, Church leaders and all. Buhari still won by a 14% margin ( 57%-43%). Can Atiku match the money spent by Jonathan to achieve that 43%. Is he likeable enough to inspire Middle class South Westerners to come and vote for him. I am not so sure

3. In terms of raw numbers, the South South represents a great opportunity for vote pickup for Atiku. With the exception of Edo, PDP is in charge of the region. Jonathan won here with a staggering 92% of the votes. And this region had the highest Turnout rate at 55%. Despite the fact that Atiku is not the son of the soil like Jonathan is, I expect him to come close to Jonathan's performance either by hook or by crook. He will likely replicate the 92-7 winning margin. However can he get a 55% Turnout rate. Also note that voters that registered in 2019 are about 1.5 million LESS than 2015. Atiku has to ensure high turnout and an even higher margin than 2015

4. I truly believe that this election will be decided by how much Buhari wins the Core North(North West and North East). He won a staggering 81% of the votes from this 2 regions with a total of 9,963,877. That's almost 10 million votes. So he won almost 67% of his votes total from these regions. Note that the North West had the second largest turnout rate with almost 50%. Can Buhari replicate this figures? Are Northerners still mad about him despite poor performance? Does Atiku have enough clout to make a dent? History suggests Atiku can do much. The Core North has been voting for Buhari since 2003. I don't think that will change. My model says Atiku has to win 35% of the Code North to win. Can Tambuwal and Dankwambo deliver Sokoto and Gombe? Well Kwakwanso even 30% of the votes in Kano? Will the Sokoto Caliphates anger with how Buhari treated Dasuki their son turn to votes? Atiku has a lot of work to do to curry the favour of the Northern elite.

5. The North Central is another Battleground region. Jonathan lost here but 18% points(59-41). What made it truly shocking was that Jonathan spent a lot of money here and PDP was in control of the region. This should have been a Buhari region. Unfortunately having been ravaged by Fulani Herdsman even battling Atiku to a 50% draw will be tough. He won Niger by over 80% in 2015 amd can replicate that, but it will be in tough everywhere else. The good news is that there are APC Governors in Kogi, Niger, Nassarawa and Plateau. Can their structures help Buhari?. Only time will tell.

My model says that Buhari wins (if the turnout rate in the last election stays the same) if he wins the North Best and North East by 75%-25%, Wins the South West by 60% - 40%. Takes Atiku to a 50% draw in the North Central. And loses the South East and South South by 95% to Atiku with only 5% to Buhari.



cc Lalasticlala, Mynd44

Buhari will score 35% of South South states, he will score more votes than in 2015. I dont see Rivers giving atiku 1.4 million votes, Delta giving him 1.2 million votes or Akwaibom giving him 900k votes. It wont happen. Infact Atiku will not score up to 1 million votes in any state in the country. But the following states can give buhari up to 1million votes, Kano, Kaduna, katsina, Lagos, Bornu, Jigawa and Sokoto. Note one important thing here, This APC, apart from Enugu will not lose any state by a ratio of 80:20.

Nemesis001:

Abeg stop that rubbish cult like followership nonsense. Why didn't he win the 3 times he contested?

Check :
1. In 2011, only SW's election turn out was below the national average.

2. In the same year, out of all the votes casted in the South, Sw contributed 28% while SS/SE contributed 72%.

3. Of the votes that went for PDP from the South, SW contributed only 20% even though they voted heavily for PDP that same year while SE/SS contributed the other 80%.

4. Of all the total votes PDP got in that election, SW contibuted 12%, SE/SS gave 50% and the entire North (NE, NW, NC) gave 38%.

5. SW gave 60% of all their votes to PDP, SE gave 98% while SS gave 96%.
This is for 2011.

In 2015:
1. APC won SW with 580k votes while PDP won Anambra alone with 660k votes thereby nullifying SW votes by over 78k votes.

2. SW voted 43% for PDP, SE voted 93% for PDP while SS voted 92%. The SW 43% votes came mostly from Igbo dominated areas of SW.

3. SW contributed only 16% of APC votes while SE/SE contributed 56% of PDP's vote while the North contributed 80.2% of APC's vote with Middlebelt delivering the killer punch.

This is just for 2015. Continue to see what SW wouldn't want you to know.

The Igbo dominated areas of Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo and ogun. You fools reason from your anus.

schoolboij:


The Igbo dominated areas of Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo and ogun. You fools reason from your anus.

Same way you reason from bellow your slippers, I think that's where your thinking faculty is located.

Nemesis001:

Same way you reason from bellow your slippers, I think that's where your thinking faculty is located.

A dumb fool talking trash. Can Rivers, Delta or akwa ibom give Atiku millions of votes like they gave Jonathan? The SW will give a block vote when their son is on the ballot. Oyo state alone can neutralize the whole south east votes when they are ready to vote a Yoruba man. In 2019, Atiku will see SW votes if he chooses an ibo vp. You will see SW mobilization to vote osinbajo and ready to take power in 2023.

SW gave Falae and Obansanjo block votes in 1999 and 2003 go figure.

Keep talking about your imaginary 40% votes in SW. Your arrogance will cost Atiku the election. I just pray he chooses an ibo vp.

schoolboij:


A dumb fool talking trash. Can Rivers, Delta or akwa ibom give Atiku millions of votes like they gave Jonathan? The SW will give a block vote when their son is on the ballot. Oyo state alone can neutralize the whole south east votes when they are ready to vote a Yoruba man. In 2019, Atiku will see SW votes if he chooses an ibo vp. You will see SW mobilization to vote osinbajo and ready to take power in 2023.

SW gave Falae and Obansanjo block votes in 1999 and 2003 go figure.

Keep talking about your imaginary 40% votes in SW. Your arrogance will cost Atiku the election. I just pray he chooses an ibo vp.

shut up your mouth boy... when did you Yorubas started supporting Pdp an ipob party

Olodo rabata like you.

Nemesis001:

shut up your mouth boy... when did you Yorubas started supporting Pdp an ipob party

Olodo rabata like you.

You slaves were nowhere to be found when Yorubas like ffk, fayose kept PDP alive. Iboland is even divided between apga, pdp and apc so shut up when the real owners of Nigeria are talking. Only a South south man can talk in pdp. Not a Wawa pig who was shouting biafra or death yesterday only to denounce his run away leader at a sight of a fulani slave master Atiku.

schoolboij:


You slaves were nowhere to be found when Yorubas like ffk, fayose kept PDP alive. Iboland is even divided between apga, pdp and apc so shut up when the real owners of Nigeria are talking. Only a South south man can talk in pdp. Not a Wawa pig who was shouting biafra or death yesterday only to denounce his run away leader at a sight of a fulani slave master Atiku.

Atiku has chosen Peter Obi as VP, cry on boy.

Nemesis001:

Atiku has chosen Peter Obi as VP, cry on boy.

Cry over a failure. We already have a VP. It's you fools that dream of a VP in a zoo.

Fair analysis but short of some current developments.
Buhari has lost some states: Kwara, Benue, Plateau, Taraba
Some states are tossed up and can be either way: Nasarawa and Gombe
Some states are lean APC but events can change: Sokoto

Atiku is guarrantteed South Souith and South East period, his number = voters' turn out
Atiku will most possibly win Kwara, Benue, Plateau, Taraba, and Adamawa
Atiku will get at least 40% of votes in : Nasarawa, FCT, Lagos and Sokoto, Gombe states

Buhari I prssume will win at least 60% in the southwest because of the VP slot is Yoruba and Tinubu's & governors' influence
Buhari will win in other parts of the North apart from states mention above

Its not a tossed up situation three critical factors:
1. Voters' turn out per region
2. Ethnic sentiments
3............................................

If you ask me Atiku made the mistake of fielding a Peter Obi, believe me Mr. Obi is very qualified and good but southwest will vote for their son period depending of the turn out, APC will win at least 60% which is what Buhari needs to be President again

I congratulate whosoever wins and hope he can make Nigeria a better place.