WhyMoD:
Daura by road..
That's all I gat for you

E go do u like magic

quickberry:


E go do u like magic

I don hear

WhyMoD:
it starts from social media and then translate to the ballots in 2019..
Now you can go and demand for more money from ur paymasters.
This BMC job is too difficult..

....it dey pain u
Sorry

South West tilted the vote in favour of Buhari last time. Let's see how it will pan out in 2019.

BafanaBafana:
Wailers are just beserk. Conducting online polls here and there. Why are you guys scared? Atiku will defeat Buhari, we have heard. Can we now keep quiet till the real elections?
After series of election losses, you guys still will not learn.

I tire o. They just keep doing analysis everywhere.

WhyMoD:
it starts from social media and then translate to the ballots in 2019..
Now you can go and demand for more money from ur paymasters.
This BMC job is too difficult..

We don hear una. Atiku will win...

Blue3k:
Polling done by thisdaylive. According to their numbers Atiku has lead. Buhari would need important SW states to get 2nd term. Important battle ground states are lagos and Kogi.

In other words, the SW has most of the swing states, so both candidates will have to concentrate their energies on winning over Yoruba voters if they want to come out on top. The terrible thing about the sort of block voting practiced by other regions is that it means those voters can be safely disregarded - except for the odd symbolic nod to identity-politics - as the candidates know they have those voters in the bag no matter what; Yoruba politicians may or may not be as well represented at the highest level under Atiku as they currently are under Buhari, but the likelihood is that in policy terms, the Yoruba states will still come out well ahead of the SE and the "core North", no matter who wins in 2019. That political sophistication which certain embittered tribal warriors like to mock has its rewards.

omohayek:

In other words, the SW has most of the swing states, so both candidates will have to concentrate their energies on winning over Yoruba voters if they want to come out on top. The terrible thing about the sort of block voting practiced by other regions is that it means those voters can be safely disregarded - except for the odd symbolic nod to identity-politics - as the candidates know they have those voters in the bag no matter what; Yoruba politicians may or may not be as well represented at the highest level under Atiku as they currently are under Buhari, but the likelihood is that in policy terms, the Yoruba states will still come out well ahead of the SE and the "core North", no matter who wins in 2019. That political sophistication which certain embittered tribal warriors like to mock has its rewards.

I agree on the SW focus on campaigning. Im not sure the parties are very scientific about polling and demographic voting patterns though. Nobody on nairaland is considering how they project results. Since the dont do direct primaries its hard to tell how popular they are with real voters instead of party leadership for me.

I dont know if block voting is bad per se. I grew up in Texas we're always Republican. The reason why is because of policy. The reason why people vote in Nigeria are usually religious, tribal or protest vote.

I'll look out for prediction regarding the SW. I think Atiku will need to tend to security in middle belt. I dont see him deviating from current infrastructure policy. The projects he prioritizes would though. The only thing lagos wants is special status and federal owned infrastructure in lagos. He can give infrastructure but special status is up to NASS.

Blue3k:


I agree on the SW focus on campaigning. Im not sure the parties are very scientific about polling and demographic voting patterns though. Nobody on nairaland is considering how they project results. Since the dont do direct primaries its hard to tell how popular they are with real voters instead of party leadership for me.

I dont know if block voting is bad per se. I grew up in Texas we're always Republican. The reason why is because of policy. The reason why people vote in Nigeria are usually religious, tribal or protest vote.

I'll look out for prediction regarding the SW. I think Atiku will need to tend to security in middle belt. I dont see him deviating from current infrastructure policy. The projects he prioritizes would though. The only thing lagos wants is special status and federal owned infrastructure i lagos. He can give the

Block voting is why the religious-right has never managed to obtain the federal abortion bans they've been seeking for decades now, despite the number of times the GOP has controlled all levels of the US government; it's why they haven't been able to hold back the progress of gay rights despite how fervently they've always opposed them. The same block voting is why the GOP never thinks twice about black voters, while Democrats like Bill Clinton could take them for granted by engaging in "triangulation" through welfare "reform" that threw huge numbers of poor black people under the bus, or "three strikes" laws that disproportionately punished minorities.

The political science behind catering to the swing voter is impeccable - the median voter theorem - and the evidence that this is what usually happens is also pretty clear-cut, at least going by politics in the USA, the UK and other developed countries with two major parties. When 95% of any region's population automatically throws its support behind a candidate out of tribal sentiments, they have given said candidate a blank check to ignore them, as it's obvious they have nowhere else to go (since the other candidate won't make more than make a token effort, given that it's obviously doomed to fail). If people choose who to back based on tribal identity, why should the candidates they've picked now care about actual policy and delivery? It's not as if GEJ's empty promises to build a second Niger Bridge did him any harm with Igbo voters, is it?

As far as the political sophistication of the two parties goes, I wouldn't take the intellectual shortcomings of Buhari as indicative of those running his campaign (I take it for granted that Atiku is familiar with all the usual techniques of modern electioneering), as the people doing the actual work of orchestrating the campaign have already been in touch with foreign pollsters, spin doctors and the like for over a year now - I've seen articles in both the FT and The Economist describing such meetings that have been taking place in London and Washington DC. There is no more necessity for Buhari to understand the planning for his re-election than there was for Trump to understand what his pollsters and campaign organizers were up to: all either had/has to do is show up and perform at the right place and time as they've been told to.

senatordave1:

Buhari haa never lost the north east mr.if i forget about the south west noise,you forget about the south east noise.buhari will win there and ss

Oga, South South is not for Buhari. Why are u guys talking like this?

Hedonini:


Now you're talking. I'm not really concerned about these voting permutations, because I know that Atiku would win by a landslide if there's a free and fair elections. We're in this same country and we interact with regular common folk daily. We know that the vast majority of all regular people (with the exception of illiterate and brainless almajiri from the core North) are disappointed with Buhari. They're poorer than they were 4 years ago, nothing works, the deception and corruption is glaring, etc. So really, Buhari can't win a national election in Nigeria today. That's a mathematical certainty.

But, we know that these bastards are hell bent on rigging the election. It's not about votes now. The only way Atiku can win is to match them at their own game.

He has the capacity, and with the backing of key powers that be, he will truncate Buhari's rigging agenda. The way to do this is to infiltrate INEC and the security agencies with elements loyal to the revolution. Atiku knows this, and I believe he is working on this.

Very sensible submission. Depending on voting permutations might not be enough for d PDP to rely on. Security & Rigging pattern need to be considered as well.

senatordave1:

Buhari haa never lost the north east mr.if i forget about the south west noise,you forget about the south east noise.buhari will win there and ss

Buhari has never lost the NE against southern christians, Against Yaradua he didn't only lose NE states, He lost states in his beloved NW.