A lot of people don't know that Yorubas are the most populated single ethnic group in Nigeria. UN Data suggest that SW is more populated than NW even though there are more states in North West.

Imagine what a Yoruba nation can achieve if they mobilize fully their population. But unfortunately, SW election turnout has never at any time in this democracy exceeded that of SE.

If you have been to Lagos before, you would understand why. Most of the PVC holders were registered close to their place of work and during elections, people are usually barred from moving around, thereby disenfranchising huge voters.

In 2011, turnout in SW was 32.8% and 32% in 2015 and while the National turnouts in 2011 was 52.3%.

Even with a little turnout, South West is the only region that doesn't give bloc votes. The best they can give to a single candidate is 60%, according to data from 2007.

In 2011 and 2015, South West votes contributed nothing to either Jonathan or Buhari's emergence. In 2011, Jonathan would have won with 6M votes if South West had given all their votes to Buhari.

In 2015, Buhari won the election with about 3M votes but South West gave Buhari 2.4 million votes while SE gave Jonathan 2.5M votes.

If SW had boycotted the election, or gave all their votes to Jonathan, Buhari would have still won the popular votes.

Again, when compared to the South East, the difference is that Buhari got 2.4M votes while PDP got about 1.9M votes. This means that Buhari won South West with only 500k votes even though this 500k votes didn't do anything for him while SE gave all their 2.5M to PDP.

This means that South West added 500k to Buhari's margin while South East removed 2.5 million. If the election had been between South West and South East alone, Jonathan would have won with 2M votes even though SW has more population than South East.

It is not the number of votes that matters, but the marginal votes.

In 2019, whatever SW adds to Buhari's margin, SE will more than remove that leaving SS, NC, NE, Shia moslems, Southern Kaduna and Kwankwasiyya to battle and destroy whatever Buhari would get in North West.

Congrat Atiku. Let the healing begins...

Note: This is early morning. No insults. If you can't argue intelligently please find another thread to pour out your hatred on.

Thank you.

am just here to read comments.... I bet this will make fp

See illusion . Buhari will win NE and get at least 45 percent of NC.

Does the OP have a job? It's too early jareee.

Ok

Nonsense!

Now you remember SW is most populated in Nigeria.

In 2011, GEJ cleared the SW in a free and fair election.

Elections were never really held in SE before 2015. Had PVCs not been used, GEJ would have won.

These are undeniable facts. That's why I laugh when people say SW determines who wins or losses elections.

The SW is just a buffet where everyone picks their own chunk of votes.

Unfortunately, their main strong hold (the media) which is used to propagate misconception has been watered down by the rise of social media.

The people who actually determine where the weight will swing are those in the middle.

means some people are politically smarter than others.when you put all your eggs in one basket..you run the risk of been been thrown in a political desert..but when you spread your votes...you don't lose whatever the outcome....

Shehunoshewhat:
Nonsense!

Now you remember SW is most populated in Nigeria.

In 2011, GEJ cleared the SW in a free and fair election.

Elections were never really held in SE before 2015. Had PVCs not been used, GEJ would have won.

Only fools argue about SW population. In 2011, SW gave Jonathan 60% of their votes and if they had voted 100% for Buhari without a single one Jonathan, Jonathan would have still won.

So elections hold in SW but never in SE? Some people sha. I believe whatever you want, next year 6M atikulated votes from SE is sure for Atiku. We no go Dubai to pick beans.

ok.....

Patrioticooduan:
See illusion . Buhari will win NE and get at least 45 percent of NC.

You mean Buhari will win Taraba, Gombe, Adamawa, Niger, Bauchi?

Buhari will only stand little chances in Borno and Yobe because of propaganda.

FYI, no Presidential contender from a region fielding 1 major candidate has ever lost his region. If you think NE that is less conservative than NW would leave a North Easterner for a North Westerner then you are mistaken.

Nigerian politics have never evolved beyond that. We play clannish politics.

SW is not voting for Buhari, but Osinbanjo because he is their son. It is the same way NE would vote for Atiku, their son. Jonathan is Ijaw, Ijaws, Urhobos and Binis are rivals, but in 2015, everyone of them closed rank to vote their son.

NE voted for Buhari in 2015, because he is closest to them at the polls. If PDP substitutes Adeshina name for Atiku's, SW would turn immediately to vote for PDP, the same way SE would boycott the election if Obi is removed from the ballot.

That is Nigerian politics for you. Only naïve souls would believe Atiku will lose NE. Even without Atiku, PDP has strong structure in NE because of their less conservative nature and huge Christian population.

When campaign starts, there would be so realignment. The truth is nobody who supports Atiku today would swerve as a result of the campaigns. It is Buhari's camp that would lose some followers.

OP, not that you deserve any response but i will indulge you today just to clear up some silly misconception about the last election. Buhari would have lost the 2015 election without votes from the south west so stop trying to muddle up facts.

Buhari scored a total of 15.4million votes and Jonathan scored 12.8million votes. South west accounted for 2.4million of Buhari's votes and if we minus that from his total votes and add it to that of Jonathan, Buhari would have scored 13million votes while Jonathan would have scored 15.2millioin votes. The south west votes made the difference for Buhari so please, stop talking nonsense.

Again, PDP will lose next years election not because of south west or south east but because of votes from south south. For Atiku to stand any chance, PDP must record over one million votes each in Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Delta state. Considering the fact that in the past, PDP usually write result in the region without any serious hindrance, APC will definitely not allow that this time around and with the advantage of federal might, you can be rest assured that PDP won't even get as much as 500k votes in some of these states. Therein lies Atiku's impending defeat.

Lol...
Perhaps you should tell us the margin of victory between Awo, Abiola , Obj(2003) and their opponents in South west. I omitted 1999 because 2 Yorubas were on the ballot.

professor Yemi Osibanjo would be on the ballot next year and that shall surely make a difference.
If you think APC would not massacre PDP in the West next year, then you are much more naive about the dynamics of elections in Nigeria than I ever imagined.

PS: As for turn out next year, time will tell.

Don't you want Biafra again ni?

gen2briz:
Don't you want Biafra again ni?

Don't incur the wrath of God.


Why has Biafra given you sleepless night?.

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Back to op, the truth is that the SE is more united politically than the SW.

In Nigeria today, religion has taken over politics, and the Yoruba's are always at crossroads, therly would split vote along political lines, while the Igbo's have common vote along religious lines.

There is no party dominance among the Yoruba's at the federal levels, hence thy will keep splitting their votes.

The Igbo's can deliver 99.99% votes for a single [presidential] candidate but the west can do that, the highest they can boast is 49.99/51.01 percentage vote split ratio.



Igbo Amaka, argue with your keypads

Emperorempower:


Don't incur the wrath of God.


Why has Biafra given you sleepless night?.

So wrath of God dey follow Biafra Waka? I never know ooo.... Enjoy the wrath alone ooo

gen2briz:


So wrath of God dey follow Biafra Waka?

Nope, enemies of Biafra, people like you that the mention of Biafra causes nightmare...those the ones Yeshua's wrath are perpetually upon.

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I never know ooo.... Enjoy the wrath alone ooo

Ironically Speaking.

Enjoy

The OP is clearly hallucinating..and jobless too. He woke up in the morning disturbed that Atiku will lose the election massively and he wants to convince himself that it won't happen so.