Ondo state

Buhari will win most parts of ondo north and central polling his largest votes from akoko region and owo and akure south lga.PdP will win some parts of info south especially ilaje,ese odo and okitipupa.sowore who is from info south will pull substantial votes here reducing pdp votes while mimiko will get a large chunk of ondo east and west votes
Verdict:apc 50% pdp 35% mimiko/sowore 15%

Ogun

Buhari will win ogun central,most parts of out west and get good votes in ogun east that will be won by atiku.
Verdict apc 60% Pdp 40%

Osun
Apc has plugged all gaps and corrected all mistakes that must have led to them almost losing the state.in the presidential race,pdp and the adeleke wont put much effort here.i expect buhari to win all the 3 zones and maybe lose ede.
Verdict:apc 65% pdp 35%

Lagos
The only thing giving atiku hope here is agbaje and the cosmopolitan nature of the state but i expect buhari to win with at least a gap of 200,000 votes.i also expect sowore and others to get some votes here.
Verdict:all 55% pdp 35% others 10%
Oyo
The only factor giving atiku traction here maybe seyi makinde and ladoja.if not,oyo will give buhari the biggest victory in the west just like in 2015.pdp will only have small joy in a few areas of ibadan,ogbomoso and ibarapa.
Verdict:apc 70% pdp 30%

Ekiti
The race will be tight here,very tough.the battle may end in a phyrric victory or a moonslide that will in the end be meaningless in the long run.margin of victory may not exceed 20,000.
Verdict:apc 50-52% pdp 48-50%

OP, you no try, in fact you goofed! Mimiko isn't contesting for presidency, but Senate under the platform of ZLP and what gives you the impression that Buhari won't win Ekiti with landslide? Please don't bring in Fayose's factor, he's no longer a factor in Ekiti.

IamPatriotic:
OP, you no try, in fact you goofed! Mimiko isn't contesting for presidency, but Senate under the platform of ZLP and what gives you the impression that Buhari won't win Ekiti with landslide? Please don't bring in Fayose's factor, he's no longer a factor in Ekiti.

Indeed. Fayemi is a Buharist. Baba is fond of him too. He won't dull mobilising at grassroot level, with the support of APC SW machinery, to ensure PMB wins. I think PMB will win comfortably with around 60% in Ekiti this time.

Buhari cannot get anything less than 60% in Ekiti. PDP in Ekiti is in complete disarray while Fayemi is doing well to the admiration of Ekiti people.

seunmsg:
Buhari cannot get anything less than 60% in Ekiti. PDP in Ekiti is in complete disarray while Fayemi is doing well to the admiration of Ekiti people.

Correct. Fayose has ruined the image of the PDP totally in Ekiti.

If you think Buhari will win Atiku in Lagos State, then you are dreaming. Yes, APC will win governorship election in Lagos State, but Atiku will trash Buhari in Lagos with a wide margin. Save this post for reference purposes. It will be a reminiscent of what happened between Ribadu and Jonathan in 2011. I repeat, APC will win governorship election in Lagos State but Atiku/PDP will win presidential election in a landslide.

Eco101:
If you think Buhari will win Atiku in Lagos State, then you are dreaming. Yes, APC will win governorship election in Lagos State, but Atiku will trash Buhari in Lagos with a wide margin. Save this post for reference purposes. It will be a reminiscent of what happened between Ribadu and Jonathan in 2011. I repeat, APC will win governorship election in Lagos State but Atiku/PDP will win presidential election in a landslide.

I am a Lagosian who is involved in politics also. Not possible buddy. Trust me. Buhari will win in Lagos comfortably. Don't give yourself high blood pressure over something that is a sure banker. This is me and Tinubu's backyard and we ain't dulling.

Eco101:
If you think Buhari will win Atiku in Lagos State, then you are dreaming. Yes, APC will win governorship election in Lagos State, but Atiku will trash Buhari in Lagos with a wide margin. Save this post for reference purposes. It will be a reminiscent of what happened between Ribadu and Jonathan in 2011. I repeat, APC will win governorship election in Lagos State but Atiku/PDP will win presidential election in a landslide.

Atiku winning in Lagos is like Buhari winning in Abia state

garfield1:
Ondo state

Buhari will win most parts of ondo north and central polling his largest votes from akoko region and owo and akure south lga.PdP will win some parts of info south especially ilaje,ese odo and okitipupa.sowore who is from info south will pull substantial votes here reducing pdp votes while mimiko will get a large chunk of ondo east and west votes
Verdict:apc 50% pdp 35% mimiko/sowore 15%

Ogun

Buhari will win ogun central,most parts of out west and get good votes in ogun east that will be won by atiku.
Verdict apc 60% Pdp 40%

Osun
Apc has plugged all gaps and corrected all mistakes that must have led to them almost losing the state.in the presidential race,pdp and the adeleke wont put much effort here.i expect buhari to win all the 3 zones and maybe lose ede.
Verdict:apc 65% pdp 35%

Lagos
The only thing giving atiku hope here is agbaje and the cosmopolitan nature of the state but i expect buhari to win with at least a gap of 200,000 votes.i also expect sowore and others to get some votes here.
Verdict:all 55% pdp 35% others 10%
Oyo
The only factor giving atiku traction here maybe seyi makinde and ladoja.if not,oyo will give buhari the biggest victory in the west just like in 2015.pdp will only have small joy in a few areas of ibadan,ogbomoso and ibarapa.
Verdict:apc 70% pdp 30%

Ekiti
The race will be tight here,very tough.the battle may end in a phyrric victory or a moonslide that will in the end be meaningless in the long run.margin of victory may not exceed 20,000.
Verdict:apc 50-52% pdp 48-50%

wrong analysis
votes in south west will be shared ratio 1:1 between pdp and apc. south west people are politically divided. north brought buhari to power in 2015 and north will likely bring atiku back to power in 2019. north has agenda and that is political dominance for at least 10 to 12 years. buhari was a decoy for power to return into north because as at 2015 it is only buhari that can defeat GEJ. in fact, boko haram was part of weapon used by north to blackmail GEJ presidency. but GEJ was too politically naive to know this. he should not have contested. politicians in south who were hungry for power and seized the opportunity to become relavant at national level. electorates in south thought that buhari will heal hailing economy miraculously and northerners hoped that they would not have to work harder with buhari in lower.

Eco101:
If you think Buhari will win Atiku in Lagos State, then you are dreaming. Yes, APC will win governorship election in Lagos State, but Atiku will trash Buhari in Lagos with a wide margin. Save this post for reference purposes. It will be a reminiscent of what happened between Ribadu and Jonathan in 2011. I repeat, APC will win governorship election in Lagos State but Atiku/PDP will win presidential election in a landslide.

I see you are a bit sincere in saying APC would win Governor but it would also win Lagos presidency by some close margin 55%-45%,.

If you understand APC has a huge grassroot politics with its members across the state and service.

Tinubu built a solid base across civil service from top to the street sweeper, these jobs affect a large majority of Lagos homes and families directly (a sitting governor like ambode was incapacitated when the machineries overwhelmed him even with power).

I believe this is different from ribadu case, tinubu needs the Lagos win more than ever before to cement his position in the negotiating table for osinbajo 2023. (I guess you know what happens when tinubu political stance is at stake).


He would go all out this time, I believe you made your assumption from igbo vote but Igbo's have always voted pdp and lost, it is Yoruba's that vote both PDP and APC, this time same factors would play plus yemi is a Lagos son, including the support at federal and the almost non touch of atiku on ground in Lagos

Your analysis is on point.
The south west has always been an Ornithological specimen of identical plumage congregating in the same political proximity from inception.

I'm from Ondo state and I can assure you that PDP will win the presidential election in Ondo state. quote me come February

Pusyiter:
Your analysis is on point.
The south west has always been an Ornithological specimen of identical plumage congregating in the same political proximity from inception.

translate in English

Feemmy:
I'm from Ondo state and I can assure you that PDP will win the presidential election in Ondo state. quote me come February

Okay na. Not long to wait.

how else would the vote be done.

garfield1:
Ondo state

Buhari will win most parts of ondo north and central polling his largest votes from akoko region and owo and akure south lga.PdP will win some parts of info south especially ilaje,ese odo and okitipupa.sowore who is from info south will pull substantial votes here reducing pdp votes while mimiko will get a large chunk of ondo east and west votes
Verdict:apc 50% pdp 35% mimiko/sowore 15%

Ogun

Buhari will win ogun central,most parts of out west and get good votes in ogun east that will be won by atiku.
Verdict apc 60% Pdp 40%

Osun
Apc has plugged all gaps and corrected all mistakes that must have led to them almost losing the state.in the presidential race,pdp and the adeleke wont put much effort here.i expect buhari to win all the 3 zones and maybe lose ede.
Verdict:apc 65% pdp 35%

Lagos
The only thing giving atiku hope here is agbaje and the cosmopolitan nature of the state but i expect buhari to win with at least a gap of 200,000 votes.i also expect sowore and others to get some votes here.
Verdict:all 55% pdp 35% others 10%
Oyo
The only factor giving atiku traction here maybe seyi makinde and ladoja.if not,oyo will give buhari the biggest victory in the west just like in 2015.pdp will only have small joy in a few areas of ibadan,ogbomoso and ibarapa.
Verdict:apc 70% pdp 30%

Ekiti
The race will be tight here,very tough.the battle may end in a phyrric victory or a moonslide that will in the end be meaningless in the long run.margin of victory may not exceed 20,000.
Verdict:apc 50-52% pdp 48-50%

you are smoking weed if u think Atiku will only get 35% percent in my state osun..it will be more closer than that.

One state am very sure will go to pdp in south west is ONDO state.. I can guarantee that Atiku will win in Ondo. I am ready to bet with anyone on this.

Eco101:
If you think Buhari will win Atiku in Lagos State, then you are dreaming. Yes, APC will win governorship election in Lagos State, but Atiku will trash Buhari in Lagos with a wide margin. Save this post for reference purposes. It will be a reminiscent of what happened between Ribadu and Jonathan in 2011. I repeat, APC will win governorship election in Lagos State but Atiku/PDP will win presidential election in a landslide.

Contradiction, the same voters that would vote in APC for governorship would cast the same for buhari. Tinubu meant business. You would only wail in serious pain

kolaaderin:


Contradiction, the same voters that would vote in APC for governorship would cast the same for buhari. Tinubu meant business. You would only wail in serious pain

The presidential Elections comes before the Governorship elections!

Apt and sincere analysis.

DonFreshmoney:
One state am very sure will go to pdp in south west is ONDO state.. I can guarantee that Atiku will win in Ondo. I am ready to bet with anyone on this.

.
that's what I'm trying to tell that guy. This Ondo that I stay will go to Atiku, I'm very sure of this.
I don't know about other south west states but am sure of Ondo state ......

Feemmy:
.
that's what I'm trying to tell that guy. This Ondo that I stay will go to Atiku, I'm very sure of this.
I don't know about other south west states but am sure of Ondo state ......

Aketi wont allow that,hes ruthless.that most people around you hate buhari doesn't translate to votes for atiku on election day.on that day,thinks will be different,it would depend on which party has more resources,momentum and traction.a lot will change at the collation level also.with the defection of Mimiko,ondo pdp is weak and has no strong chieftains to resist apc except maybe in ondo south.

There's no question that buhari will win the west but my pain and angst is that it will not be a landslide victory or a crushing defeat like the east will hand to buhari.the highest percentage buhari may get is 70% which gej garnered in 2011 while the lowest atiku will poll in the south east is 80%.i wish the yorubas can coalesce together to inflate figures for buhari by even intimidating,frightening pdp agents and officials,writing results and filtering voters like seen during the osun rerun and rivers 2015

Very wrong Analysis.

Lagos: PDP 65%
APC 35%

Osun: PDP 55%
APC 40%

Ondo: PDP 70%
APC 25%

Ogun: PDP 55%
APC 45%

Oyo: PDP 60%
APC 35%

Ekiti: 50:50.....


Any other analysis is a drunkard hullabaloo.

Eco101:
If you think Buhari will win Atiku in Lagos State, then you are dreaming. Yes, APC will win governorship election in Lagos State, but Atiku will trash Buhari in Lagos with a wide margin. Save this post for reference purposes. It will be a reminiscent of what happened between Ribadu and Jonathan in 2011. I repeat, APC will win governorship election in Lagos State but Atiku/PDP will win presidential election in a landslide.

Which Lagos are u talking about? Hope no be eko akete, to break ur head just dey dey hungry me. see as I dey look you.

garfield1:
Ondo state

Buhari will win most parts of ondo north and central polling his largest votes from akoko region and owo and akure south lga.PdP will win some parts of info south especially ilaje,ese odo and okitipupa.sowore who is from info south will pull substantial votes here reducing pdp votes while mimiko will get a large chunk of ondo east and west votes
Verdict:apc 50% pdp 35% mimiko/sowore 15%

Ogun

Buhari will win ogun central,most parts of out west and get good votes in ogun east that will be won by atiku.
Verdict apc 60% Pdp 40%

Osun
Apc has plugged all gaps and corrected all mistakes that must have led to them almost losing the state.in the presidential race,pdp and the adeleke wont put much effort here.i expect buhari to win all the 3 zones and maybe lose ede.
Verdict:apc 65% pdp 35%

Lagos
The only thing giving atiku hope here is agbaje and the cosmopolitan nature of the state but i expect buhari to win with at least a gap of 200,000 votes.i also expect sowore and others to get some votes here.
Verdict:all 55% pdp 35% others 10%
Oyo
The only factor giving atiku traction here maybe seyi makinde and ladoja.if not,oyo will give buhari the biggest victory in the west just like in 2015.pdp will only have small joy in a few areas of ibadan,ogbomoso and ibarapa.
Verdict:apc 70% pdp 30%

Ekiti
The race will be tight here,very tough.the battle may end in a phyrric victory or a moonslide that will in the end be meaningless in the long run.margin of victory may not exceed 20,000.
Verdict:apc 50-52% pdp 48-50%

Where did you get this fantasy from?

Look at any SW State today...

Governorship - APC 100%
HoA - APC 100%
LG - APC 98%

Where are you getting your PDP 35% and 40% from?

Stop forecasting wins on empathy and federal character. Look on ground and scale the result on ground to get where we are going.

Its winners take all. Whoever wins in Lagos takes Lagos.

senatordave1:
There's no question that buhari will win the west but my pain and angst is that it will not be a landslide victory or a crushing defeat like the east will hand to buhari.the highest percentage buhari may get is 70% which gej garnered in 2011 while the lowest atiku will poll in the south east is 80%.i wish the yorubas can coalesce together to inflate figures for buhari by even intimidating,frightening pdp agents and officials,writing results and filtering voters like seen during the osun rerun and rivers 2015

How many voters do they have left in the east.
They were busy with Biafra or death during PVC registration. No lefelendum,no erection was thier mantra. Unless INEC create nairaland polling unit to accommodate those that destroyed their PVC. I am not saying Buhari will win in SE though but 1 or 2 states in the north is enough to cancel SE votes..

There's a good chance Buhari will lose in Ondo. A lot of people there want him out. His saving grace is that many are not enthusiastic about Atiku.

When you mention Atiku, most people say...ole buruku But the same people will tell you Buhari must go.

A PDP victory can't be ruled out.

Support for Buhari in the SW is highest amongst the upper middle classes, majority of who don't ever vote. In the lower echelons of society, there's a lot of anger about the economic situation, & these are the people most likely to vote.


I believe PDP will score higher in the SW than most predict.

DeLaRue:
There's a good chance Buhari will lose in Ondo. A lot of people there want him out. His saving grace is that people are not very enthusiastic about Atiku.

When you mention Atiku, most people say...ole buruku But the same people will tell you Buhari must go.

PDP can win in that state.

How did you come up with this? When Yoruba call you "ole", you are a reject. Yoruba will not call you ole and thrn reward you....never.

ImperialYoruba:


How did you come up with this? When Yoruba call you "ole", you are a reject. Yoruba will not call you ole and thrn reward you....never.

I think a lot of the people in the lower echelons of society have this weird fond memory of how money 'flowed' under PDP. They might come out to vote 'PDP' and not necessarily Atiku and end up with Atiku anyway.

Most of these people have little or no education & are not interested in long story about economic fundamentals or even the fight against corruption.

This election result will be a lot closer than people expect.

Yomboy4ever:



How many voters do they have left in the east.
They were busy with Biafra or death during PVC registration. No lefelendum,no erection was thier mantra. Unless INEC create nairaland polling unit to accommodate those that destroyed their PVC. I am not saying Buhari will win in SE though but 1 or 2 states in the north is enough to cancel SE votes..

The voters that survived Python are exiled in Israel with ohamandik.

DeLaRue:


I think a lot of the people in the lower echelons of society have this weird fond memory of how money 'flowed' under PDP. They might come out to vote 'PDP' and not necessarily Atiku and end up with Atiku anyway.

Most of these people have little or no education & are not interested in long story about economic fundamentals or even the fight against corruption.

This election result will be a lot closer than people expect.

That segment of Yoruba society are the ones that tune in to Irohin to get their news. They are conservative Yorubas. They follow the King's endorsements. Who has their Kings endorsed? That will give you insight how they will vote.