Both Apc and amosun (apm) will loss more dan dey will gain from d fraca....


Ogun election will b interesting come february.

All candidates


* d only tin dapo (apc) has is good party structure. D man is light weight politician

* Gni (adc). Have public sympathy + a well know but d man no too get much

* buruji/adebutu (pdp).....eitheir of dem can sweep ogun east votes + availability of cash but d fight btw dem os taking too long

* akinlade (apm)......really on amosun.....sure amosun still av d highest loyalties in d state + very high funds but dat may not b enough



As it stand gni (adc) have d highest chance in a free and fair election


But we all know

Landslide ko Seaslide ni.

hisexcellency34:
APC is dead in Ogun state. APM is everywhere in the state. Amosun's candidate will win by landslide

hisexcellency34:
APC is dead in Ogun state. APM is everywhere in the state. Amosun's candidate will win by landslide

Akinlade with his paper weight has already won in your dream.u would soon wake up from your slumber by February 14th evening

humberjade:
Though as it stands, Akinlade still has a lot of grounds to cover if he wants to succeed Amosun... but how that certificate fraud, Dapo is going to win is something i don't understand... as in how will he do it now?

Ogun East: He has Kashamu and Adebutu to fight there...both of them, top notch grassroots politicians...he's no match to them in any of the LGs.


Ogun West: He should not even bother...they won't leave thier sons to vote him.

Ogun Central: Where Tunde Oladunjoye is trying to bring down Amosun's influence...Dapo will lose woefully.

Still waiting for their magic though...Dapo is the one who needs prayers so that his certificate scandal doesn't consume him along with d potential bankruptcy that is staring him in the face when he loses.

Left to me, be it Akinlade or GNI...i am so good

it may go into a run off. to be honest its not clear who will win at this point, but Akinlade will never win. Dapo still has the edge because of APC party structure, GNI has no structure but It's between them both.

dyydxx:


it may go into a run off. to be honest its not clear who will win at this point, but Akinlade will never win. Dapo still has the edge because of APC party structure, GNI has no structure but It's between them both.

I agree with u on the runoff part.

But pls my brother, which APC structure exactly are talking about, the same Osoba structure that left APC for SDP in 2015 and yet couldn't deliver any seat...because i am not understanding...I even believe PDP (forget about d factions) has more chance than Dapo (since the 2 are still campaigning under PDP)...I know the Dapo camp is relying on Federal might to conquer in 2019, but i doubt if they will have it after Feb 14.

The fact that Dapo has Adebutu still running in Ogun East is a huge blow to him...because he can't even win Adebutu in Iperu to start with

hisexcellency34:
APC is dead in Ogun state. APM is everywhere in the state. Amosun's candidate will win by landslide

APC is dead in Ogun State? Why is Amosun still in APC despite the movement of most of his boys to APM? Why is he & some of his loyalists contesting Senatorial & House of Reps election under APC? Amosun should have returned the APC senatorial slot back to Lanre Tejuoso and contest under APM to test his popularity.

Police & soldiers are invited to Ogun State during election to curb Amosun double standard and double deal behavior.

dyydxx:


it may go into a run off. to be honest its not clear who will win at this point, but Akinlade will never win. Dapo still has the edge because of APC party structure, GNI has no structure but It's between them both.

Lol, Bro you have started again... Which party structure are you talking about? The one firmly in the hands of Amosun? Even the Apc senatorial candidate for Ogun, Senator Lekan Mustapha is with Amosun... Tunde Oladunjoye that released that statement dare not enter the state APC secretariat...


Nobody knows who will win the Governorship election in the state but one thing is certain, APC can't win Ogun State.

Humblega:
Both Apc and amosun (apm) will loss more dan dey will gain from d fraca....


Ogun election will b interesting come february.

All candidates


* d only tin dapo (apc) has is good party structure. D man is light weight politician

* Gni (adc). Have public sympathy + a well know but d man no too get much

* buruji/adebutu (pdp).....eitheir of dem can sweep ogun east votes + availability of cash but d fight btw dem os taking too long

* akinlade (apm)......really on amosun.....sure amosun still av d highest loyalties in d state + very high funds but dat may not b enough



As it stand gni (adc) have d highest chance in a free and fair election


But we all know

I agree with u...but this APC structure people keep talking about baffles me...which structure gangan? What is left of APC in Imo and Ogun when u remove Okorocha and Amosun's structure from it...all that will be left is carcass...if u mentioned Federal might, u might not be far from d truth...but structure? I beg to differ

humberjade:



I agree with u on the runoff part.

But pls my brother, which APC structure exactly are talking about, the same Osoba structure that left APC for SDP in 2015 and yet couldn't deliver any seat...because i am not understanding...I even believe PDP (forget about d factions) has more chance than Dapo (since the 2 are still campaigning under PDP)...I know the Dapo camp is relying on Federal might to conquer in 2019, but i doubt if they will have it after Feb 14.

The fact that Dapo has Adebutu still running in Ogun East is a huge blow to him...because he can't even win Adebutu in Iperu to start with

I have business interests in Ijebu-Ode and Oru-Ijebu , Dapo is a late comer here... Remember few weeks back, Dapo was still hoping Buhari will persuade Amosun to support him hence he said Amosun will be at his flag off.

Up till now APC hasn't done their own flag off, even kashamu has done his own.

AgbariOjukwu1:



Lol, Bro you have started again... Which party structure are you talking about? The one firmly in the hands of Amosun? Even the Apc senatorial candidate for Ogun, Senator Lekan Mustapha is with Amosun... Tunde Oladunjoye that released that statement dare not enter the state APC secretariat...


Nobody knows who will win the Governorship election in the state but one thing is certain, APC can't win Ogun State.

Even Dapo knows what is on ground now...he knows APC his nothing without SIA's structure...that's d reason he's not castigating Amosun publicly to see if he can still change his stance...only his followers are living in self-deceit...time will tell

humberjade:



I agree with u...but this APC structure people keep talking about baffles me...which structure gangan? What is left of APC in Imo and Ogun when u remove Okorocha and Amosun's structure from it...all that will be left is carcass...if u mentioned Federal might, u might not be far from d truth...but structure? I beg to differ

Bro, Elections will be going on simultaneously all over Nigeria that day. And all the foot soldiers that will make the federal might work effectively well are already in APM.... AMERICO, JANGO, OBAMA etc besides even the Osun Elections that Apc went with the entire Calvary ,were they not about to lose the election if not for Amosun, Fayemi and others that went to beg Omisore ? Where was the federal might then?

AgbariOjukwu1:



I have business interests in Ijebu-Ode and Oru-Ijebu , Dapo is a late comer here... Remember few weeks back, Dapo was still hoping Buhari will persuade Amosun to support him hence he said Amosun will be at his flag off.

Up till now APC hasn't done their own flag off, even kashamu has done his own.

Even Akinlade that came out just about a month ago has hit the ground running...Dapo does not know how the game is played...he's scared to release funds....he is a strict businessman who doesn't joke with his money...he sees politics as an investment that must heed dividends...little wonder he retrieved the transformer and vehicles he gave to people after he lost out in 2015.

And the way Ogun politics is wired...and putting into consideration d gladiators he's going up against, he just has to win Ogun East to have a slim chance at all...how he will be able to do that is beyond me

humberjade:



Even Dapo knows what is on ground now...he knows APC his nothing without SIA's structure...that's d reason he's not castigating Amosun publicly to see if he can still change his stance...only his followers are living in self-deceit...time will tell

Dapo is a smart man. He knows how vital amosun's support can be. If care isn't taken, akinlade could become the next ogun governor judging from what's happening lately. Did you know that amosun already have moles in the current APC in ogun that are ready to truncate dapo's candidacy. Dapo hasn't started any campaign yet which should tell you that his only hope is federal might which may not work during the polls due to amosun's closeness to buhari. Something should tell you that amosun already done his homework well hence why he's boasting. People like tolu odebiyi, APC senatorial aspirant in ogun west, and others within APC are working for amosun behind the scene.

AgbariOjukwu1:



Bro, Elections will be going on simultaneously all over Nigeria that day. And all the foot soldiers that will make the federal might work effectively well are already in APM.... AMERICO, JANGO, OBAMA etc besides even the Osun Elections that Apc went with the entire Calvary ,were they not about to lose the election if not for Amosun, Fayemi and others that went to beg Omisore ? Where was the federal might then?

That's what i am saying too...but these Dapo guys are hellbent on believing Dapo has a chance...i have told them everybody will be minding his own business during d Gen Elections but they are hoping on Fed Mgt oo.

And then they talk about APC structure in Ogun...imagine if Aregbe had pulled out his structure from APC before Osun2018...imagine Ajimobi withdrawing his structure from APC in Oyo...it is only in Lagos u can mess with a sitting Gov within d same party and get away with it...here in Ogun...kole werk

Gazzy88:
Dapo is a smart man. He knows how vital amosun's support can be. If care isn't taken, akinlade could become the next ogun governor judging from what's happening lately. Did you know that amosun already have moles in the current APC in ogun that are ready to truncate dapo's candidacy. Dapo hasn't started any campaign yet which should tell you that his only hope is federal might which may not work during the polls due to amosun's closeness to buhari. Something should tell you that amosun already done his homework well hence why he's boasting. People like tolu odebiyi, APC senatorial aspirant in ogun west, and others within APC are working for amosun behind the scene.

They think because they visited Buhari and he lifted Abiodun's hand, he has his total support, and he would win...but they are in for a shocker...Amosun replied by flying on the Presidential jet with Buhari back to Abuja from Akwa Ibom to show how close he is to Buhari...Buhari is just playing along to ensure all factions work for him and ensure he wins the State...after which we will all know where he stands.

I was at aderupatan, Ajebo, Ogunmakin & other rural communities along that axis from Sunday leaving this morning. There are APM posters everywhere. You also find little posters of PDP (Adebutu) and ADC (Gboyega Isiaka). Up till Monday 31st December, 2018 afternoon, No single APC poster at Ajebo & Aderupatan, Ogunmakin has very few posters.

On that Monday at Ajebo there was meeting at APC secretariat located almost adjacent to PDP secretariat. While I was discussing with some APC members at the secretariat of the zero presence of APC posters in the area as very unbelievable but a reality, a Toyota car brought some APC posters of Dapo Abiodun. The bearer told me they are aware and that's the reason they brought those posters.

I also observed the rural communities don't actually understand what is real happening. PDP Kashamu presence is not known at all in that area. They don't know Amosun is even contesting election. One or two that are aware don't know he is contesting under APC. They said Amosun is the owner of APM. There are confusion among the rural populace. The elites are few and most don't vote

humberjade:


That's what i am saying too...but these Dapo guys are hellbent on believing Dapo has a chance...i have told them everybody will be minding his own business during d Gen Elections but they are hoping on Fed Mgt oo.

And then they talk about APC structure in Ogun...imagine if Aregbe had pulled out his structure from APC before Osun2018...imagine Ajimobi withdrawing his structure from APC in Oyo...it is only in Lagos u can mess with a sitting Gov within d same party and get away with it...here in Ogun...kole werk

The major mistake APC made was ceding their ticket to Ogun East.. Ogun West can never forgive APC for that. If Amosun should backtrack and decide to support Dapo Abiodun, Ogun West will not only feel betrayed by Amosun but by the Egbas too.

So I don't blame Amosun for insisting on Akinlade though I would have preferred Tolu Odebiyi or Yayi.

Tinubu, Osoba and Co neglected party's interest just because they wanted to take over the structure of the party from Amosun. In their political miscalculation they stole the party ticket and gave it to Ogun East instead of looking for another candidate in Ogun West to tackle Amosun.

I observed two people that have dominated this thread are Amosun boys. They are not facing reality. Their analysis are absurd, baseless and fantasy to comfort Amosun

AgbariOjukwu1:



The major mistake APC made was ceding their ticket to Ogun East.. Ogun West can never forgive APC for that. If Amosun should backtrack and decide to support Dapo Abiodun, Ogun West will not only feel betrayed by Amosun but by the Egbas too.

So I don't blame Amosun for insisting on Akinlade though I would have preferred Tolu Odebiyi or Yayi.

Tinubu, Osoba and Co neglected party's interest just because they wanted to take over the structure of the party from Amosun. In their political miscalculation they stole the party ticket and gave it to Ogun East instead of looking for another candidate in Ogun West to tackle Amosun.

I am telling u...Tolu Odebiyi would have bn better...but Amosun has worked with both Odebiyi and Akinlade closely and he knows them...maybe he saw what we are not seeing...as for Yayi, i have it on good authority that he's not from Ogun West at all...2, we can't have as Gov someone who would every month have to send royalty (isakole) to Lagos before settling down for d business of governance in Ogun.

babaolofin:
I was at aderupatan, Ajebo, Ogunmakin & other rural communities along that axis from Sunday leaving this morning. There are APM posters everywhere. You also find little posters of PDP (Adebutu) and ADC (Gboyega Isiaka). Up till Monday 31st December, 2018 afternoon, No single APC poster at Ajebo & Aderupatan, Ogunmakin has very few posters.

On that Monday at Ajebo there was meeting at APC secretariat located almost adjacent to PDP secretariat. While I was discussing with some APC members at the secretariat of the zero presence of APC posters in the area as very unbelievable but a reality, a Toyota car brought some APC posters of Dapo Abiodun. The bearer told me they are aware and that's the reason they brought those posters.

I also observed the rural communities don't actually understand what is real happening. PDP Kashamu presence is not known at all in that area. They don't know Amosun is even contesting election. One or two that are aware don't know he is contesting under APC. They said Amosun is the owner of APM. There are confusion among the rural populace. The elites are few and most don't vote

I have no doubt that the APM/APC will cause confusion for those supporting Amosun at the grassroots, but let's watch how he plays it...he has 2 weeks after d 1st election to hit nook and crannies of this rural areas...whether that would be enough for AAA to win is something else

humberjade:


That's what i am saying too...but these Dapo guys are hellbent on believing Dapo has a chance...i have told them everybody will be minding his own business during d Gen Elections but they are hoping on Fed Mgt oo.

And then they talk about APC structure in Ogun...imagine if Aregbe had pulled out his structure from APC before Osun2018...imagine Ajimobi withdrawing his structure from APC in Oyo...it is only in Lagos u can mess with a sitting Gov within d same party and get away with it...here in Ogun...kole werk

Politics is no maths....

Goodluck Jonathan had all the structure plus federal might and still lost the election in 2015. Similarly, Gbenga Daniel had all the structure as well as hardcore gangsters at his disposal and still lost.

If you understand politics very well you'll know Amosun's rants and chants is that of a drowning man. Just wait and see what will become of him.

Just like the Ekiti and Osun elections, APC will find a way round the situation here. Akinlade is not near the options in Ogun.

babaolofin:
I observed two people that have dominated this thread are Amosun boys. They are not facing reality. Their analysis are absurd, baseless and fantasy to comfort Amosun

See, i base my submission on what i see on ground...while i am not sure if Akinlade would win...I know Abiodun can't win...GNI even ranks ahead of him and also has d best chance but for d lack of strong structure and war chest...even Adebutu will beat him flat.


But can u pls roll out how u think Dapo Abiodun can win?

humberjade:



They think because they visited Buhari and he lifted Abiodun's hand, he has his total support, and he would win...but they are in for a shocker...Amosun replied by flying on the Presidential jet with Buhari back to Abuja from Akwa Ibom to show how close he is to Buhari...Buhari is just playing along to ensure all factions work for him and ensure he wins the State...after which we will all know where he stands.

Bro, you are absolutely right.

I remember in 2007 when Buhari came to Abeokuta to campaign at the Alake Palace, he saw the massive crowd Amosun was able to pull for him despite the believe that ANPP was mostly seen as a northern party in the South west. Buhari likes amosun and he trusts him.

When they did Apc governorship primaries which Oshiomole claimed Dapo won, Amosun went to Abuja to complain, Oshiomole said Amosun doesn't enjoy the support of the majority party members in the state.

Oshiomole sent another committee for the national and state assemblies primary . Amosun paid channels tv to televise the elections live. The Alhaji Ciroma led committee announced results of the election and virtually all Amosun's candidates won the election. What happened next was that, Oshiomole replaced those that won the primaries with those that didn't contest and those that lost but were loyal to Tinubu and Osoba...

Amosun went to meet Buhari again , this time he went with Alake and Olu of Ilaro

Buhari knows what is happening in Ogun state but he's handicapped because of his elections buhari doesn't totally trust Tinubu and that was why it was alleged that Tinubu was sidelined at a time but when they needed him for elections, they called him back.. Who knows what will happen to Tinubu after Buhari wins this election.

babaolofin:
I observed two people that have dominated this thread are Amosun boys. They are not facing reality. Their analysis are absurd, baseless and fantasy to comfort Amosun

Pointless analysis so far...I wonder where Akinlade's vote will come from to defeat an old timer like a GNI.

The elections here is likely going to be between Dapo and GNI.

LordBailish:


Politics is no maths....

Goodluck Jonathan had all the structure plus federal might and still lost the election in 2015. Similarly, Gbenga Daniel had all the structure as well as hardcore gangsters at his disposal and still lost.

If you understand politics very well you'll know Amosun's rants and chants is that of a drowning man. Just wait and see what will become of him.

Just like the Ekiti and Osun elections, APC will find a way round the situation here. Akinlade is not near the options in Ogun.

Since the showdown in Ogun seem like a replica of what played out in 2015 to u, that means APC can't win too....In 2015, we had 3 top parties (PDP, PPN and ACN)...ACN took advantage and won...Now we 4 strong parties and candidates...no one knows where d pendulum would swing...but again u wouldn't expect anything less from a winner...football teams and even war generals boast of victory b4 going into a match or war...u can't go to war with ur tail between ur legs like Dapo is doing and expect to win...kole werk

Also note that Daniel didn't contest, but Amosun is on the ballot...don't also forget OGD had lost it totally b4 d election...d HOA buhaha crippled his govt 2 years to d polls...refuse everywhere in d State...Amosun is more popular in Ogun Central now than OGD was in Ogun East in 2015.

All the same, time will tell sha.

I can always have consolation in GNI if Akinlade fails to win.

AgbariOjukwu1:




Bro, you are absolutely right.

I remember in 2007 when Buhari came to Abeokuta to campaign at the Alake Palace, he saw the massive crowd Amosun was able to pull for him despite the believe that ANPP was mostly seen as a northern party in the South west. Buhari likes amosun and he trusts him.

When they did Apc governorship primaries which Oshiomole claimed Dapo won, Amosun went to Abuja to complain, Oshiomole said Amosun doesn't enjoy the support of the majority party members in the state.

Oshiomole sent another committee for the national and state assemblies primary . Amosun paid channels tv to televise the elections live. The Alhaji Ciroma led committee announced results of the election and virtually all Amosun's candidates won the election. What happened next was that, Oshiomole replaced those that won the primaries with those that didn't contest and those that lost but were loyal to Tinubu and Osoba...

Amosun went to meet Buhari again , this time he went with Alake and Olu of Ilaro

Buhari knows what is happening in Ogun state but he's handicapped because of his elections buhari doesn't totally trust Tinubu and that was why it was alleged that Tinubu was sidelined at a time but when they needed him for elections, they called him back.. Who knows what will happen to Tinubu after Buhari wins this election.

That's why Buhari is grooming the likes of Fashola, Fayemi and Amosun to counter Tinubu in d future.

I am totally aware of all that transpired my bro...let's just watch and see how things play out.

LordBailish:


Pointless analysis so far...I wonder where Akinlade's vote will come from to defeat an old timer like a GNI.

The elections here is likely going to be between Dapo and GNI.

On the contrary, Nobody has said Akinlade was going to win . What brought about the discussion was the claim that APC has a formidable structure in Ogun state which is false.

kayusely70:
A man playing god doesnt deserve any sympathy, he should roast in his own steaming stew

It is bad and condemnable for any mortal to play God. However, it is ironical that those condemning Amosun for playing God in Ogun State are OK with the one playing God in Lagos State.

AgbariOjukwu1:



On the contrary, Nobody has said Akinlade was going to win . What brought about the discussion was the claim that APC has a formidable structure in Ogun state which is false.

It is not false. APC in the south west is the strongest cabal in the entire country. Never ever under estimate the powers they can wield.

LordBailish:


It is not false. APC in the south west is the strongest cabal in the entire country. Never ever under estimate the powers they can wield.

Lol, We are talking about State Structure of APC in Ogun state in particular and not that of South west.

UnchangeableGod:
It is bad and condemnable for any mortal to play God. However, it is ironical that those condemning Amosun for playing God in Ogun State are OK with the one playing God in Lagos State.

True.

AgbariOjukwu1:



True.

But why if I may ask?