Get this straight: Atiku Abubakar will lose the presidential election on February 16. I’m not Rev. Father Ejike Mbaka or one of the tongue-in-cheek seers whose predictions you’ll be struggling to figure out after dropping your offering in the bag at midnight of December 31. I’ll say it the way it is, walking where angels fear to tread.

You’re free to believe who you want or what you choose, but here’s why Atiku will lose. The two main candidates will split the north, the country’s largest vote bank, with 38.9million or over 50 percent of the 72.8million registered voters as at January. But President Muhammadu Buhari’s fanatical hold over the north west, which has over 18.5million registered voters – the highest in the country – will still give him an edge over Atiku.

The deciding vote is not in the hands of the northern elite, who loathe Buhari and have loathed him for over 30 years. It’s in the hands of the mass of the rural and urban poor who will die for Buhari before they know why. His fabled 12 million votes may have become distant memory, but his name remains a talisman unmatched by Atiku.

Wouldn’t the farmer-herdsman crisis in the middle belt in the last three or four years and Buhari’s sluggish response favour Atiku in that area, and possibly redeem some of the votes he would lose in the core north?

I doubt it. There’s a significant and growing Hausa-Muslim population in the north central today who identify more with Buhari than they do with Atiku. If there was still any doubt about their loyalty, Miyetti Allah, an important segment of this group, settled it by endorsing Buhari recently. Indigenes who are indifferent or those who belong to a different faith still believe they have to be in the good books of the well-connected Hausa-Fulani to climb up the social ladder.

With the south west, the second largest voting bloc, still firmly in APC’s control; one flank of the south south riven by the epic fight between Governor Udom Emmanuel and his estranged godfather, Godswill Akpabio; and the other flank stranded over Governor Nyesom Wike’s reluctance to lead the Atiku campaign, the picture for PDP in the south south is grim.

Add that to the situation in three south east states – Anambra, Enugu and Ebonyi – whose governors are working almost flat out for Buhari’s second term, and you will be hard pressed to find the advantage that Peter Obi is supposed to bring to the Atiku ticket.

Will the record of the last four years not count? It will count for next to nothing. The mixed bag of the fight against corruption, the yo-yoing war on Boko Haram, the fragile economy and unflattering unemployment figures ought to put Buhari in a tight spot; but the indescribable fear of who the real Atiku in power could be – that unknowable quantity – makes it a bit easier to forgive Buhari’s shortcomings.

Yet, Atiku will not simply roll over. He’s a fighter, and the coalition of angry generals in his corner – from former President Olusegun Obasanjo to former military President Ibrahim Babangida, and General Aliyu Gusau – have a dog in the fight. Expect to hear more from these generals – and even a few highly placed anti-Buhari traditional rulers shortly before the election. The home stretch promises to be nasty.

But that won’t change much. The die is cast, and the race is won and lost.

The calls for restructuring will ring ever so resonantly in 2019. Rogues and authentic politicians will lend their voices and the government may be forced to exhume past reports on the matter in what may turn out to be motion without movement.

Yet, the demand, stoked by the acrimonious fallout of the 2019 election, will not abate as more separatist groups and their enablers will return to the trenches.

It would be a busy year for lawyers as they flit, in their numbers, from one election tribunal to another carrying clients’ brief in one hand, and CVs to fill vacancies in the new government in the other.

https://www.thecable.ng/2019-how-atiku-will-lose-and-other-matters/amp?__twitter_impression=true

lalasticlala Mynd44

Yet, the demand, stoked by the acrimonious fallout of the 2019 election, will not abate as more separatist groups and their enablers will return to the trenches.

Referring To The Ipob Pigs..

What about most people that would neither vote for Pdp nor Apc but other parties? We dont need predictions what we need is free fair credible elections

Buharis only hope is in rigging and that what he would do

bamvik:
What about most people that would neither vote for Pdp nor Apc but other parties? We dont need predictions what we need is free fair credible elections

You have a point there. However this article is specifically Targeted at the ipob yoots who form the bedrock of support for Atiku..

[s]

SalamRushdie:
Buharis only hope is in rigging and that what he would do

[/s]

Take handkerchief...you have been wailing all week..

I STAND WITH BUHARI.
4+4

CilicMarin:


Referring To The Ipob Pigs..

www.nairaland.com/attachments/8440734_dwkwntfxqauwxob_jpeg_jpeg1c0a32d43de7150cb6c7a8b6a1a21868

the only thing ipob have is beating empty chest

oshilee....

OP tried as much as possible to paint a bright picture for Buhari which I found dubious and unconvincing for the reasons I’ll highlight below.

Firstly, I agree with OP that the votes in the north will be split by both candidates. It’s also true that Buhari has a cult-like following based on records of his 4 past elections. The problem however is, we don’t know how much the votes are going to be split up north. Why do I State this? Because there are northern elites in play whose interests this time are in complete disagreement with Buhari. Take Kwankwasor for instance. Take Tambuwal for instance whose impacts are expected to hurt Buhari’s wide margin wins in the past.

Buhari will no doubt win in the North West and parts of the North East, but not with the margins he used to win in 2015 especially in the North East and parts of North West. The north central may likely be the decider here for Atiku or Buhari. We have to wait and see how much the herdsmen crises and poor state of the economy will affect the outcome of the election. I predict a win for Atiku in this region for many reasons I do not wish to explain here. North Central is likely the key to winning the presidential election.

Let’s go back a second to Atiku’s history as a politician which dates back to the time of June 12 election of 1993. This was the time Atiku joined the leagues of late Moshood Abiola to fight for return of democracy. While Atiku was the second runner up in the SDP election behind Babagana Kingibe who Abiola chose as running mate, Atiku continued building his political structure into the 90s. He was a member of the G-34 that transformed into what is known today as the PDP. In fact Atiku was mentored by the late Shehu Yaradua who was a prominent member of the influential Kaduna Mafia. It is unfair to say Atiku will not impact on Buhari’s votes in the NW owing to his alliances and Fulani origin. The PDP on the one hand has a solid political base in the north in general because of its founding fathers, that structure is still intact though the party is not in control of government. Expect more elites to Betray Buhari at the election with the excuse of the bad state of the economy.

Votes in the SOuth West will be split, why? Because of the party structure of the PDP which is solid in this region, and also the poor state of the economy. The last elections in the South West are proof that though APC or PDP May win more South West states depending on the final outcome, the margin would be close so the South West will not be the decider here.

Let’s dive into the South South region now. This region usually produces one of the highest voter turnouts compared to the number of registered voters. It seems Buhari’s best performance in this region would be in Edo State. That’s it! Atiku will most likely floor Buhari in this region. Again, what’s the reason? The poor state of the economy. It is expected that APC will have a good outing in a state like Akwa Ibom or Rivers State at the Governorship and Senatorial election levels, but the presidential election will be completely different. This region will likely vote massively for Atiku

A similar case Will be witnessed in the South East. The state elections will be different from the presidential election. PDP May struggle to win elections at the state and senate levels if they do not have credible candidates, but expect a completely different turnout at the presidential election. Atiku will likely floor Buhari here without doubt.

CilicMarin:


Referring To The Ipob Pigs..

Thought I was the only one who noticed that.

In addition to the quote:

Add that to the situation in three south east states – Anambra, Enugu and Ebonyi – whose governors are working almost flat out for Buhari’s second term, and you will be hard pressed to find the advantage that Peter Obi is supposed to bring to the Atiku ticket.

The writer didn't do justice to the weaknesses of PDP in the SE by failing to mention the calls for elections boycott by iPod which will most definitely be heeded to by a fairly significant number of voters whom, other wise, would have voted PDP.

Atiku and his lying machine are doomed to fail no matter how one casts this die.

Grim analysis but spot on

Mynd44 lalasticlala Isn't this Frontpage material?

SalamRushdie:
Buharis only hope is in rigging and that what he would do

i am still looking for that State thief atiku can win.
benue, taraba and anambra suppose to be for thief atiku, but it will be 50-50 which buhari will still win with one vote.

[s]

CilicMarin:
Get this straight: Atiku Abubakar will lose the presidential election on February 16. I’m not Rev. Father Ejike Mbaka or one of the tongue-in-cheek seers whose predictions you’ll be struggling to figure out after dropping your offering in the bag at midnight of December 31. I’ll say it the way it is, walking where angels fear to tread.

You’re free to believe who you want or what you choose, but here’s why Atiku will lose. The two main candidates will split the north, the country’s largest vote bank, with 38.9million or over 50 percent of the 72.8million registered voters as at January. But President Muhammadu Buhari’s fanatical hold over the north west, which has over 18.5million registered voters – the highest in the country – will still give him an edge over Atiku.

The deciding vote is not in the hands of the northern elite, who loathe Buhari and have loathed him for over 30 years. It’s in the hands of the mass of the rural and urban poor who will die for Buhari before they know why. His fabled 12 million votes may have become distant memory, but his name remains a talisman unmatched by Atiku.

Wouldn’t the farmer-herdsman crisis in the middle belt in the last three or four years and Buhari’s sluggish response favour Atiku in that area, and possibly redeem some of the votes he would lose in the core north?

I doubt it. There’s a significant and growing Hausa-Muslim population in the north central today who identify more with Buhari than they do with Atiku. If there was still any doubt about their loyalty, Miyetti Allah, an important segment of this group, settled it by endorsing Buhari recently. Indigenes who are indifferent or those who belong to a different faith still believe they have to be in the good books of the well-connected Hausa-Fulani to climb up the social ladder.

With the south west, the second largest voting bloc, still firmly in APC’s control; one flank of the south south riven by the epic fight between Governor Udom Emmanuel and his estranged godfather, Godswill Akpabio; and the other flank stranded over Governor Nyesom Wike’s reluctance to lead the Atiku campaign, the picture for PDP in the south south is grim.

Add that to the situation in three south east states – Anambra, Enugu and Ebonyi – whose governors are working almost flat out for Buhari’s second term, and you will be hard pressed to find the advantage that Peter Obi is supposed to bring to the Atiku ticket.

Will the record of the last four years not count? It will count for next to nothing. The mixed bag of the fight against corruption, the yo-yoing war on Boko Haram, the fragile economy and unflattering unemployment figures ought to put Buhari in a tight spot; but the indescribable fear of who the real Atiku in power could be – that unknowable quantity – makes it a bit easier to forgive Buhari’s shortcomings.

Yet, Atiku will not simply roll over. He’s a fighter, and the coalition of angry generals in his corner – from former President Olusegun Obasanjo to former military President Ibrahim Babangida, and General Aliyu Gusau – have a dog in the fight. Expect to hear more from these generals – and even a few highly placed anti-Buhari traditional rulers shortly before the election. The home stretch promises to be nasty.

But that won’t change much. The die is cast, and the race is won and lost.

The calls for restructuring will ring ever so resonantly in 2019. Rogues and authentic politicians will lend their voices and the government may be forced to exhume past reports on the matter in what may turn out to be motion without movement.

Yet, the demand, stoked by the acrimonious fallout of the 2019 election, will not abate as more separatist groups and their enablers will return to the trenches.

It would be a busy year for lawyers as they flit, in their numbers, from one election tribunal to another carrying clients’ brief in one hand, and CVs to fill vacancies in the new government in the other.

https://www.thecable.ng/2019-how-atiku-will-lose-and-other-matters/amp?__twitter_impression=true

lalasticlala Mynd44

[/s]

Rubbish, you can as well die for him like Lalong

Yawn long trash I stopped half way reading the nonsense.

The poster don't know buhari was elected base on sentiment, it doesn't matter if the northern votes split or north, I wonder if he's elected to be president of the north.

The hate for buhari made everyone love atiko

buharitill2023:
i am still looking for that State thief atiku can win.
benue, taraba and anambra suppose to be for thief atiku, but it will be 50-50 which buhari will still win with one vote.

the whole of south south including my Edo.

The whole of south east including IMO

He will win ekiti, Lagos,oyo and ondo in south West.

In middle belt, jos, nassarawa, Benue,kogi, Niger is already in the bag.

In another words PMB'S 4 + 4 is assured.

I think the author of the piece is right about Buhari support base being the rural and urban poor in the North. Case in point, I recently witnessed an exchange between a northerner shoe-shiner and an igbo trader right before last Christmas at Ikeja computer village.

The trader was trying to get the hausa guy to accept lower than his asking price for fixing and shinning his shoes because according to him Buhari has destroyed Nigeria's economy and therefore money is tight. Thinking the hausa chap would be swayed by his position he then declared that he is 'Atikulated', only for the shoemaker to retort that no he will still support Buhari no matter what. The thing nearly turned to fight between the two men because the trader couldn't seem to understand why the shoemaker was so fanatical in his support for Buhari.

If that Lag-based shoemaker could be that determined to still support Buhari, I can only imagine how much more the support for him would be in the North.

Excaperx:
the whole of south south including my Edo.

The whole of south east including IMO

He will win ekiti, Lagos,oyo and ondo in south West.

In middle belt, jos, nassarawa, Benue,kogi, Niger is already in the bag.

thief atiku will win, but buhari has already won 2019. wise people like sw and ss are already planning for 2023.