Take it or leave it, President Mohammadu Buhari (PMB) has a victory assured election come February 2019. This assertion is based on obvious facts that are out there for any discerning observer of our polity. Any careful observation of our electoral politics since independence to date will undoubtedly reveal a clear voting pattern largely informed and driven by ethno-religious considerations. This pattern has remained consistent and will continue for some time. It is not about to change in 2019. For a candidate to win, that candidate must go into political alliances with other sections of the country in political horse-trading to get their support and votes in the election. The votes from the other parts of the country are expected to compliment the votes coming from the candidate’s geo-political base or stronghold to give the candidate a competitive edge in the election. This is the fundamental assumption underpinning our national election strategies, which will certainly play out in this particular election.

It is against this background that I intend to examine the two main candidates: PMB and Atiku Abubakar (Atiku) in terms of viz; political base and political alliance with other parts of the country. PMB comes from the North West with a voter population of about 18 million, the highest in the North and the highest in the whole country. Atiku on the other hand, comes from the North East with about 9 million voter population. PMB’s running mate, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo (PYO) is from the South West with a voter population of about 14 million, the highest in the southern part of the country and second in the whole country. Atiku’s running mate, Peter Obi is from the South East that has about 8 million voter population.

What this means, is that while PMB/PYO ticket is coming to this electoral contest with the backing of about 32 million prospective voters, Atiku/Obi ticket is coming to face them backed by only 17 million prospective voters, leaving them with a shortfall of about 15 million voters already.

The North East owes PMB a huge debt of gratitude for greatly reversing the fortunes of the Boko Haram insurgency in the zone. The zone is today witnessing massive reconstruction and rebuilding of public infrastructure and provision of resettlement homes on a scale never seen before. The people see PMB as their saviour from the scourge of terrorism and responsible for the remarkable progress made in their lives, a far cry from the dark days when Boko Haram insurgency was at the peak of their violent and horrendous campaign, inflicting unimaginable destruction to life and property.

The North West, which is PMB’s base, is totally a forbidden territory for Atiku and the PDP. PMB has erected (with his overwhelming grassroots mass followership) what in American political lexicon is called electoral firewalls around the North West Zone. The firewalls make the zone an impregnable fortress for any opposition. All the seven states in the North West with the exception of Sokoto are under APC governors. These include Kaduna, Kastina, Kano, Zamfara, Kebbi and Jigawa whose governors are all ardent supporters of PMB and will leave nothing to chance to ensure his victory and also use it as a launching pad for their guber election victory in March. Sokoto is not left out in the victory equation for PMB given the fact that it became a PDP state by the defection of the governor. APC remains very strong and it’s the party to beat because of the massive political grassroots structure and support of Senator Wamako, a former governor and former political godfather of Governor Tambuwal.


PMB has a rock solid political partnership with the South West having offered the position of VP to the zone in return for their massive votes for him in 2015. Going into his election, the South West has the incumbent VP in the person of PYO, an energetic, indefatigable erudite scholar/lawyer, serving his country with passion and enjoying the absolute confidence and trust of his principal (PMB) with whom he shares the toga of integrity and incorruptibility.

To further strengthen and cement this working political alliance with the zone, PMB (in a political master stroke) finally rested the ghost of the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential election as the federal government officially acknowledged their son, late Chief MKO Abiola as the winner of the election, awarded him (posthumously) the nation’s highest honor of GCFR (Grand Commander of Federal Republic) and adopted June 12 instead of May 29 as the real Democracy Day in honour of late Chief MKO Abiola. The South West certainly owes him a debt of gratitude for doing the needful, which their own son, Obasanjo failed to do throughout his 8 years in power. All the six states have sitting APC governors who will no doubt deploy all the resources in their power to galvanize their people to vote for PMB as a prelude to guber election victory in March.

Atiku by picking his running mate from another zone, has technically and unwittingly conceded the South West to PMB as he has nothing on his political plate for them.

Elections are won by deliberate, methodical and diligent effort by a candidate and his/her campaign team to mobilise and maximise the number of votes in the areas where the candidate has high electoral value. It is the ability of a candidate to optimize the votes coming from the voter demographics of that candidate’s political base that wins the election. This base can be by geo-political location, party affiliation, working political partnership, ethnic affiliation, religious affiliation, business association etc. This is the strategy that gave Obama victory in his second term, Trump in his first term, PMB in his first term, and will give him victory again in February.

– Agbachi is an Abuja-based public affairs analyst..


https://leadership.ng/2019/01/12/why-pmb-will-defeat-atiku-in-february-presidential-poll/

Everybody is entitled to their opinion. I am not voting buhari/Sanwoolu

Sai baba maigaskiya

well analyzed and unbiased.

Ifeanyi from Anambra will not hear. Their own is that Atiku will even defeat Jesus at the polls

Printerscanner:



You have just one vote. Nigeria has about 80 million votes.

Yea, true. But I have siblings, cousins and staff who would never vote apc again. What about that? They are among the 80 million voters, aren't they?

BUHARI AND HIS NORTHERNISATION AGENDA

"By the appointment of Yusuf Magaji Bichi as new DG of DSS, the entire security architecture and apparatchik of Nigeria is predominantly and wholly dominated by one section of the country. Thus, about 16 out of 17 key security appointees hail from PMB's section of the country. From the Minister of Internal Affairs, IGP, DG, NIA, DG, DIA, Chief of Army Staff, Chief of Air Staff, to the Comptrollers-General of Customs, Immigration, Prisons, Federal Fire Service, Commandant-General of NSCD, Attorney-General of the Federation, the story is the same (North, mostly Moslems).

Let us add other key national positions such as acting Chairman, EFCC, SGF, Chief of Staff to the President, MD, NNPC, Minister of Petroleum Resources (PMB himself); Heads of DPR, PEF, NPA, FAAN, NCAA, NRC, National security, Printing and Minting company, AMCON, NDIC, NAICON, Nigeria has been totally northernised! Let us peep into NBC, NTA, INEC, FHA, FERMA, FRCN, NOA, NHIS, NTDA, TETFUND, UBEC, NPHDA, NCC, NACA, NIMET, BPE, NOSDRA, NUC, Accountant-General, NEMA, Budget office, NIRSA, and you wonder if we are in the “Northern Republic of Nigeria”, or “Federal Republic of the North”, or Republic of Northern Nigeria”. It is so ugly, so nauseating, so dirty. It means that those who determine the security direction and fate of Nigeria can hold a meeting of the security situation of Nigeria and speak only the language of Hausa, in a country of 374 ethnic groups (Otite onigu); or 480 ethnic groups (M. Onwuejeogwu), that speak about 520 languages, out of which 9 have become extinct."

Me: The Tribalist-in-Chief has become paranoid and deranged. Nepotism has been elevated to state policy under the embodiment of parochialism called Buhari. Nigeria has been reduced to ethno-religious enclave of a ultra-conservative, chauvinistic Fulani cabal in the Aso Villa, while the sophisticated morons and demented buffoons in the South, are busy justifying their own enslavement and domination.

Will Nigeria survive Buhari's re-election?
Capital- NO. We should now know where we are, either to still foolishly cast vote for him. A stitch in time---saves nine.

kahal29:



The North East owes PMB a huge debt of gratitude for greatly reversing the fortunes of the Boko Haram insurgency in the zone.


Going into his election, the South West has the incumbent VP in the person of PYO, an energetic, indefatigable erudite scholar/lawyer, serving his country with passion and enjoying the absolute confidence and trust of his principal (PMB) with whom he shares the toga of integrity and incorruptibility.

The South West certainly owes him a debt of gratitude for doing the needful, which their own son, Obasanjo failed to do throughout his 8 years in power.

– Agbachi is an Abuja-based public affairs analyst..


https://leadership.ng/2019/01/12/why-pmb-will-defeat-atiku-in-february-presidential-poll/

I don't no if u are d author of d article, but I wish 2 make a few comments on some of d points u raised above.

1. D NE doesn't owe d president a "huge debt of gratitude for greatly reversing the fortunes of the Boko Haram insurgency in the zone."

When u dont understand d constitution & d concept of social contract, that is when a person feels d citizens owe its elected representatives a "huge debt of gratitude" 4 doing what they were elected 2do. Buhari isn't doing Nigerians a favour by doing his job. Its Nigerians who did him a favour by voting 4 him.

D constitution says in section 14(2b) that "d security & welfare of d people shall b d primary purpose of govt".

In section 14(2a), d constitution says "sovereignty belongs to the people of Nigeria from whom government through this Constitution derives all its powers and authority;"

Section 14(2b) speaks of govts duty 2 Nigeria & Nigerians. Section 14(2a) speaks of d fact that in carrying out section 14(2b), d govt performs its duty by d consent of d people. D power to fight BH comes from d people. So d govt is fighting BH with powers it derives from d people. So d people don't owe a debt of gratitude 2d president 4 using d powers he got from d people 2do what they asked him 2do. Any power buhari has as president, he has because d people gave him that power& he holds it in trust& on behalf of d people of Nigeria.

This brings us 2d issue of social contract. A contract means agreement which is mutually binding& beneficial 2d parties in d agreement. By voting 4 buhari, Nigerians entered into an agreement with him and he in turn agreed&swore 2 uphold d constitution & fulfill certain electoral promises. So Nigerians don't owe buhari a "debt of gratitude" 4 fulfilling his own side of d agreement. If u give ur tailor ur cloth to sew, its a contract. If he sews d cloth, he is fulfilling his side of d agreement. U don't owe him a "debt of gratitude". U simply pay him his fees just d way d president is paid his salary& allowances.

2. Regarding d issue of integrity, except d meaning of integrity has changed, I honestly don't c how it relates 2 buhari or osinbajo. If u can provide instances of integrity 4 buhari/osinbajo, I will b most glad.

3. To say that Yorubas owe buhari a "debt of gratitude" cos he recognized June 12, is tantamount to making june12 a regional ethnic matter instead of a national/Nigerian matter. Abiola didn't win June 12 because of Yorubas. He won it because Nigerians voted 4 him. So clearly d intention of d president was 2 whip up ethnic sentiments.

Again, by recognising that Abiola won June 12, is recognizing Abiola as an ex-president. If buhari is serious about June 12, he should swear Abiola in posthumously, pay d Abiola family all that Abiola was entitled to as president of Nigeria, then step down& allow his deputy babagana kingibe to serve d June 12 mandate as president of Nigeria.