GOVS, GUSAU SET TO JOIN PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Source: THISDAY
By: Imam Imam
Friday, August 20, 2010



In what may eventually turn out to be the most competitive race in Nigeria’s recent history, at least four governors are set to enter the fray in the quest to be the presidential flagbearer of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2011 elections.

While former military president Ibrahim Babangida and former vice-president Atiku Abubakar have already signified their intentions to run, President Goodluck Jonathan has been given the green light by his party to contest in what it called the continuation of a joint ticket with the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua.

It is believed that the latest moves by the governor will change the landscape and re-configure the permutations for the presidential race.
Meanwhile, a former US ambassador to Nigeria, Ambassador John Campbell, has warned that the country could become unstable if the power-sharing arrangement is abandoned in the next general election.

This is believed to represent the thinking of the American foreign policy establishment. Campbell’s position that Jonathan should be backed by the US when Yar’Adua was ill was eventually adopted by the US government early this year.

THISDAY learnt that Northern governors, who believe that power must remain in the region for at least the next four years, are considering supporting the candidature of one of their colleagues whom they intend to throw their full weight behind at the party’s primaries with the hope of dislodging Jonathan.

The National Security Adviser (NSA), Gen. Mohammed Aliyu Gusau, is also set to join the race any moment from now, having made an unsuccessful attempt in the 2007 presidential election.

The Northern governors are planning to work with their colleagues in the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) “so that they can vote one way in all the states of the federation”, a governor told THISDAY last night.

Under the amended Electoral Act, primaries will now hold in individual states rather than the usual one location used for national convention in the past.
With the reduction in the number of voters available to the president because of the elimination of political appointees as delegates, the governors now hold the ace in the presidential race.

Top on the list of governors joining the fray is Dr. Bukola Saraki of Kwara State, who is currently the chairman of NGF. He is seen as representing a new generation of leaders in the country and his position as the NGF chairman has enhanced his profile in the last three years. He was elected governor of the state in 2003 and re-elected in 2007.

Governor Danjuma Mohammed Goje of Gombe State is also a top bet for the job, with his achievements, especially in infrastructural development, trumpeted as among the best in the country. He has also governed the multi-ethnic and multi-religious state in a very mature manner, a credential that is believed to be good enough for Nigeria.

Governor Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State is also said to be interested, although it is being suggested that his ambition is to checkmate Atiku whom he has engaged in political fisticuff in recent times. Atiku’s attempt to return to the PDP is being blocked from his home state by his governor who has insisted that Atiku is not yet back into the party.

Also interested in the race is Governor Sule Lamido of Jigawa State, although he is yet to make any serious move in that direction. But he is one of the governors insisting that a Northerner must emerge as president next year.

Governor Babangida Aliyu of Niger State, who initially wanted to be vice-president to Jonathan, is also said to be interested in the presidential contest but his ambition may be effectively checked by the presence of Gen. Babangida in the fray. Both of them are from the same state.

Aliyu used to be supportive of Jonathan, but his failure to emerge VP after Jonathan became president seemed to have changed that. Aliyu is the chairman of the Northern Governors Forum. He is also said to be respected among his colleagues. The PhD holder is a seasoned civil servant.

The governors are said to be “very remorseful” about the way they helped in ousting Prince Vincent Ogbulafor as the chairman of the PDP because they believe Dr. Okwesilieze Nwodo has not lived up to their expectations.

A governor from the South-east, who played the major role in getting Ogbulafor to resign, was said to have apologised to the former chairman recently after falling out with Nwodo over the composition of the state executive of the party.

But yet a major dark horse in the race may turn out to be Gusau, whom many only know as an intelligence officer but who has served the country in various capacities, including being acting governor of Ogun State in 1977.

The former Chief of Army Staff was instrumental to the emergence of President Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 and is said to enjoy a good relationship with many of the governors. If they are unable to reach a consensus on any of their colleagues, Gusau is one of the aspirants they are likely to back with their heavy machinery.

Meanwhile, writing under the title “The Risks of the 2011 Elections”, Ambassador Campbell has warned that the 2011 polls “have the potential to undermine the country’s current precarious stability, potentially exacerbating ethnic, regional and religious tensions”.

He said power has been rotated between the “Muslim North” and “Christian South” since 1999 by elite consensus, “thereby avoiding regional and religious conflict”.

“But, in 2011,” he wrote, “there is the risk that power sharing will be abandoned, with the presidential incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, a Southern Christian, contesting against a Northern Muslim candidate. The fact that credible elections are unlikely may tilt the balance of power in favor of the incumbent president and open the door to protests? perhaps violent?from the losing candidates and ethnic groups. This potential crisis is germinating within the context of ongoing ethnic and religious violence in the Middle Belt and a simmering insurrection in the Delta.”

He noted: “Nigeria’s previous elections ratified elite decisions already made. They lacked credibility as a reflection of popular will, and public interest in them waned. By contrast, if the currently fragmented elites do not control the 2011 elections, regional, ethnic and religious questions are likely to become salient. If the elections lack credibility, the losers? as individuals or as an ethnic group?could turn to public protest and violence, as happened in Kenya in 2007. Especially if turmoil associated with the elections intensifies in the Middle Belt and the Delta, Nigeria could itself become unstable.”

I laugh in ilorin, useless saraki want to be president. i can`t stop laughing. nigeria is bigger than kwara.

The north will at the end mess up because they are not coming out with a common candidate we hear new names everyday and what do they (Northerners) think they are? They want power by force thet have forgotten they held on to power in nigeria more than any other region in Nigeria. Nothing ll happen if a southerner wins in 2011.

abdulmutab: I laugh in ilorin, useless saraki want to be president. i can`t stop laughing. nigeria is bigger than kwara.

How typical, a man's greatest detractors are those from his own home. I really wonder if you can call him "useless" to his face. The truth is that the profile of Bukola Saraki has risen significantly within the nation, to such an extent that he is a national figure. It is very difficult for many people to imagine that the man they used to call "Bukky" has grown beyond his first days in office as governor. They also fail to acknowledge the fact that he has recorded substantial achievements in Kwara State, and the inability to do more is closely linked to the fact that Kwara State is one of the poorest states in the country.

If PDP decides to go with a young northern candidate as opposed to old horses such as IBB, Atiku, or Gusau certainly the name of Bukola Saraki will top the list. Other names would include Danjuma Goje, and Gabriel Suswam. Mu'azu Babangida Aliyu is effectively sidelined due to the candidacy of IBB but his influence cannot be denied.