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A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan - Politics (2) - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan (26642 Views)

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by onyxo76(m): 8:51am On Feb 14
inferential statistics gone wrong.

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by Galaxyowerri(m): 8:52am On Feb 14
Very apt analysis, I have my PVC warning up in my pocket to vote for PDP. I don't mind trekking for several kilometers to my polling unit since I relocated to another part of town but my conscience will be free that I did my own part in sending the terrorist back to Daura!

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by Ayoefa: 8:54am On Feb 14
TRASH!!!

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by Charly68: 8:55am On Feb 14
Nigerians shouldn't be deceived ,only a military man can tackle the nations militia men that are on rampage for now...vote a civilian and see Meme thereafter . Let's stop being sentimental and face the reality .Corrupt people will come and destroy our military again.. If Buhari is not a man of integrity 90% of moey spent on arms and weapons would have been shared and our khaki men would have been running away from the battle front..People should examine issues critically and cast their votes wisely . Am not opposed to superior opinion by the way .

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by WATCHOVER(m): 8:57am On Feb 14
Ijaya123:


Too little too late.

PDP to the cleaners. Never again!
If APC like make them carry security to take harass voters, Bring malfunctioning card readers or scare voters with sporadic shootings, PDP will be declared winner by INEC chairman next week

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by senatordave1(m): 8:57am On Feb 14
This looks like what a deranged man wrote or maybe he was high on macdowells.very childish and shallow.

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by AngelicBeing: 8:59am On Feb 14
grin
Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by macello4(m): 9:01am On Feb 14
AllenSpencer:
[s][/s]
are u ok? Eleribu omo.

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by AllenSpencer: 9:02am On Feb 14
macello4:
are u ok? Eleribu omo.


And who is this dimwit?

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by monex(m): 9:02am On Feb 14
bender79:
This is the worst and most unreliable permutation in the history of politics in the world

south south and south east predictions are at best laughable.

Buhari will definitely get 25% of south south

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by WorkTheTalk(m): 9:03am On Feb 14
This is serious
Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by ejimatic: 9:04am On Feb 14
Asshurbanipali:
A good look at how Buhari will lose Saturday’s election
Umar Sa'ad Hassan in Viewpoint


INEC has put the final number of registered voters for the 2019 general election at 84 million with the North West leading the pack as usual with 20.2 million, followed by the South West with 16.3 million registered voters.

The thumb-print columns on the ballot-papers have been compressed further by INEC to accommodate the very many parties duly registered and what that means in essence, is that there will be many more invalid votes than usual. We may witness a very high rate of rerun elections this year.

Considering previous election turn-out, voter enthusiasm and current political climate in the 36 states, this is what is expected to happen in this Saturday’s Presidential election subject to it being free and fair.

NORTH-WEST

President Buhari will clinch the majority of votes in this region.Atiku will take it down to the wire in Kaduna. Asides the secured votes in the Christian-dominated southern part of the state, he will also grab a handful in other places due to the quite decent PDP structure on ground. While Kano ranks alongside Kebbi and Katsina as states Buhari is guaranteed a clear win, Atiku should get close to 30% of the votes cast due to the Kwankwasiyya machinery working in his favour. Despite the killings in Zamfara, Buhari will surprise many by pulling more than half of the probable 600,000 votes on Saturday. The PDP is totally in control of neighbouring Sokoto state however and Atiku will conveniently pull about 500,000 of the 800,000 votes likely to be cast.

The under-whelming performance of the incumbent Jigawa state governor has allowed Sule Lamido and the PDP to endear themselves to the people and though this is highly debatable, Atiku will win Jigawa narrowly.

Verdict: Buhari 6m, Atiku 3.7m

SOUTH-WEST

The South-Western electorate is the most liberal and open-minded in Nigeria. Whether we like it or not, we have not out-grown politics of ethnicity and religion. The major thing Buhari has going for him in the core northern states is an unerasable belief that he is a honourable man while every other person, being Muslim regardless, is a ‘worldly’ fellow.

The South West have no such problem. Tinubu has lost some degree of respect outside Lagos and the APC can no longer bank on his influence across the whole region. It will be a close contest in most of the states except of course Lagos; the capital of Tinubu’s crumbling empire where Buhari should enjoy a comfortable victory. The APC presidential campaign team were stoned in Ogun just days ago. With Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Kashamu Buruji and none other than President Obasanjo all working for an Atiku victory, it is already in the bag. The PDP will win Ekiti, Osun and Ondo by slim margins but feelers indicate they will lose Gov. Ajimobi’s Oyo state.

After all said and done in the South West, the PDP are likely to get about 3 million votes in total while the APC should get about 500,000 less.

Verdict: Atiku 3m, Buhari 2.5m

NORTH-EAST

The average person in Yobe, Borno and Adamawa doesn’t care whether or not the Buhari government has entered into an agreement with Boko Haram to release school girls or cease activities for a while, they just know the insurgents haven’t been half as active as they were before President Buhari came into office. Add the fact that there is virtually no PDP structure in Borno and Yobe and you have why Buhari should take home roughly 400,000 votes of the total number of 600,000 votes in Borno and more than half of the 500,000 votes in Yobe. The APC has a formidable structure in Atiku’s home state of Adamawa with almost all the relevant political figures united in their love for Buhari. Of the 700,000 votes expected to be cast, Buhari should win by a margin of about 100,000. Everyone expects Atiku to win Gombe because of the strong PDP presence there but Buhari is still very much loved by the masses there and he should win. Bauchi has the largest number of voters in the North East and in addition to the people being dissatisfied with the state governor’s performance, they are also the most enlightened in the region. They understand fully well that the question at this juncture is whether or not Nigerians deserve better. The state has a history of impressive voter turn-out and we may just see half of the registered 2 million plus voters cast their ballot. Of that million, Atiku’s victory should be by a margin of about roughly 200,000.The biggest Atiku margin in this region should come from Taraba. The former Minister of Women Affairs, Aisha Jummai Alhassan, was the APC in the state and she migrated with all the party excos in the 169 wards in the state to the UDP. She is the first minister in recent memory to openly endorse her President’s rival before vacating office when she said she was for Atiku in 2019. It would surprise a lot of people if Buhari gets more than 100,000 of the likely 600,000 expected to turn up.

Verdict: Buhari 2.3m, Atiku 1.5m

SOUTH-EAST

The APC has tried gaining a foothold in the South South and South East by enlisting some big names in the region but it really won’t count. These people were always going to vote against a man who promised delivering dividends according to how he was voted after his last victory. Talk more one who has performed worse than any President we have ever had.

The Vice-Presidential candidate of the PDP, Peter Obi is an Ibo and at the very least, 5 million of the 10 million registered voters in the South East are expected to cast their votes this weekend. Of that 5 million, it would take a miracle for Buhari to get 400,000 votes.

Verdict: Atiku 4.7m, Buhari 300,000

SOUTH-SOUTH

Despite the APC having presence in some South South states notably Rotimi Amaechi’s Rivers and Senator Godswill Akpabio’s Akwa Ibom, Atiku is expected to get about a million votes while his opponent will struggle to get past the 100,000 mark and in Akwa Ibom, the PDP should conveniently secure above 900,000 of the about 1 million expected to be cast.

Verdict: Atiku 6.6m, Buhari 400,000

NORTH-CENTRAL

The North-Central has the 3rd largest voters registered and it is more or less the region that erases all doubts as to an Atiku victory in a free and fair contest. Of the over 1.6 million registered voters in Kogi, 600,000 are expected to turn out and more than half of that number will vote the PDP. Adducable to not just Buhari’s non-performance but the unpopularity of Gov. Yahaya Bello outside his Ebira tribe in Kogi state. Plateau is expected to hand over 800,000 of about 1 million votes cast on Saturday to Atiku and about 500,000 of the 600,000 likely to vote in Benue will do so for Atiku as well. The state underwent its worst security crisis in recent memory under President Buhari and his administration has been widely accused of being insensitive to their predicament. Nasarawa has about 1.6 million registered voters and about half that numbers are expected to turn out. It will be tight but the PDP should win it by a narrow margin. About 600,000 voters are likely to turn out on election day based on antecedents in Senate President Bukola Saraki’s Kwara state and the PDP are expected to win it by a 50,000-100,000 margin. Niger is really close and could go to any of the 2 parties but it appears the APC will clinch majority of the 700,000 votes cast on that day.

https://www.thecable.ng/a-good-look-at-how-buhari-will-lose-saturdays-election/amp?p=332269&__twitter_impression=true

. Thank you for your sponsored analysis.By Saturdays evening we will see if your biased permutation is true or not. If South East votes their son Obi let see if South west will not vote their son Osinbajo.If South West is daft we will see.If power will be in the north more than eight years Obasanjo spent we will see on Saturday.If the north will not vote massively for the second term of Buhari we will see.If Nigeria still loves" share the money" government we will see. If the results will not daze many Nigerians we will see..If Buhari will be the first Northerner that will not complete his tenure of 8 years we will see. If 23 states where we have APC governors will not work for Buhari we will see .No time for argument,sponsored report and edited pictures.The real voters are ready.online voters should sit down and and wait for the results 48hours to go....We will soon face the realities

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by opius: 9:04am On Feb 14
So shall it be
Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by homealone00: 9:05am On Feb 14
NL should not help in spreading uneducative analysis. This analyst is a genuine idiot. The moment I say PDP winning in the west, I knew I was right all along with the analysis.

3 Likes

Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by Jarus(m): 9:06am On Feb 14
Bad job.

Flaws

1, You mean SW with 2nd biggest voter population will have a turnout of 5.5m while SE, with the lowest registered voters and Biafra boycott vote factor, will pull 5m votes?

2, Atiku is not winning SW.

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by kingsmaila(m): 9:08am On Feb 14
Some people will develop heart attack whem

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by kingsmaila(m): 9:09am On Feb 14
Some people will develop heart attack when APD defeats PDP on Saturday.

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by sogodihno: 9:12am On Feb 14
IloveToMess:


Nigerians watch out for these kind of people, these are our real enemies in this country.

because they refuse to support a Thief?

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by Heavance(m): 9:18am On Feb 14
Some people act dumb somehow, you have only one voter's card and you are talking how millions will vote for old men.

Just tell us you are voting this person, and know the old man has your single vote.
Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by RTSC: 9:20am On Feb 14
sogodihno:


because they refuse to support a Thief?
He is a thief and your anti corruption fighter cruised in his jet in 2015 soliciting for votes.

He is a thief, yet your so called anti corruption lord has not put him behind bars in four years.
A man with no immunity.

What kind of corruption are you fighting?

Try get sense, Yoruba man. Prove us wrong once in a while.

3 Likes

Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by Carmal90(m): 9:20am On Feb 14
Jarus:
Bad job.

Flaws

1, You mean SE with 2nd biggest voter population will have a turnout of 5.5m while SE, with the lowest regiatered voter and Biafra boycott vote factor, will pull 5m votes?

2, Atiku ia not winning SW.

Very bad job.
Though atiku will be our president.. Insha allah
Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by K0y3: 9:21am On Feb 14
How some people still think buhari will loose just after 4 years still baffles me. This is a man that has been winning in the north without being in power and you now expect him to loose the north to atiku that as been out of power 12 years ago, now that he has all machineries at his disposal.

Plus thus article is annoying, apc with osibanjo as its vp will loose sw to pdp because the region is sophisticated but pdp with obi as it's VP will win the SE. Is that not mere wishful thinking, Yorubas might be sophisticated but are definitely not stupid.

Lastly, I don't expect APC to lose this election just after four years simply because for Nigerians to endure pdp for 16years, I don't expect we will give up on APC after four years. Just my opinion though.

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by haffaze777(m): 9:22am On Feb 14
IloveToMess:


Nigerians watch out for these kind of people, these are our real enemies in this country.


We Nigerian know our enemy,you are the one representing them here

back to the topic,I stopped reading the gibberish when the mofos say PDP will win my Ogun state and southwest

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by fokusmind: 9:22am On Feb 14
Worst bullshit of the year.
I have this for Mr Hassan: Buhari is the winner of Saturday Election

Buhari will win Sokoto as against your prediction
Buhari will win South West. Hassan and Atiku will receive the shock of his life from the votes that will come from this region I predict 30% of whatever Buhari gets for Atiku. The worst results in terms of percentage for PDP in South West will come from Lagos and Ogun.

Buhari will win Bauchi

Buhari will have more than 40% of whatever Atiku gets in South South and more than 30% in South East.

Bookmark it for your reference.

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by RTSC: 9:26am On Feb 14
K0y3:
How some people still think buhari will loose just after 4 years still baffles me. This is a man that has been winning in the north without being in power and you now expect him to loose the north to atiku that as been out of power 12 years ago, now that he has all machineries at his disposal.

Plus thus article is annoying, apc with osibanjo as its vp will loose sw to pdp because the region is sophisticated but pdp with obi as it's VP will win the SE. Is that not mere wishful thinking, Yorubas might be sophisticated but are definitely not stupid.

Lastly, I don't expect APC to lose this election just after four years simply because for Nigerians to endure pdp for 16years, I don't expect we will give up on APC after four years. Just my opinion though.
You may not have given up on the apc, but the rest of us have.

There is a barest minimum Nigerians are used to . A barest minimum that pdp for all their faults did not cross.

Apc has crossed that barest minimum. Suffering is at an all time high.
Nepotism and government sponsored bigotry has reached an unimaginable crescendo.

If that was how obasanjo did when he took over democratically in 1999, our democracy would not have survived till now given how fragile it was and still is.

You can vote for the divisive, incompetent apc. Sane people will not.
Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by RTSC: 9:28am On Feb 14
fokusmind:
Worst bullshit of the year.
I have this for Mr Hassan: Buhari is the winner of Saturday Election

Buhari will win Sokoto as against your prediction
Buhari will win South West. Hassan and Atiku will receive the shock of his life from the votes that will come from this region I predict 30% of whatever Buhari gets for Atiku. The worst results in terms of percentage for PDP in South West will come from Lagos and Ogun.

Buhari will win Bauchi

Buhari will have more than 40% of whatever Atiku gets in South South and more than 30% in South East.

Bookmark it for your reference.
Even if he rigs, he can't get 20%.

He got 5% in 2015. Watch and see what he will get this time.
Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by SternProphet: 9:34am On Feb 14
No way Buhari loses the election. You call yourself an analyst and you are basing projections on 2015 figures. 2015 election was 60% rigged.
It was a lie that PDP got all those figures in the SE. I also think Buhari got under aged votes in the North but he now has the federal police, army and air force.
Where on God's good earth are Atiku votes going to come from with 22 APC governors and 6 other possible governor assets in the PDP tending towards Buhari?.

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by Bimpe29: 9:35am On Feb 14
May God give victory to an aspirant who will better our collective lots.
It's well.

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by roomus(m): 9:46am On Feb 14
They keep forgetting that APC is the ruling party while PDP is the opposition..2015 and 2019 are different oh..APC plays better politics than PDP anytime anyway...yes PDP fielding atiku makes em look resurgent buh the name buhari or atiku alone can't win elections,party structures and strategies does...APC has perfected their election strategies for yrs..PDP on the other hand are banking on sympathy/popularity votes which has failed them time without number(osun,ekiti,ondo etc)... everyone knows dat at polling booth..it's nat d candidates name dat sell buh d party with the smartest agents...most people will vote a single party on all the 3ballot papers in order to get their promised money... nothing like vote APC president, PDP senator, APGA house of rep...now look at the partys contesting, which party has a better structure on ground...ask fayose, mimiko, adeleke wat happened to them and why they ain't vocal no more

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Re: A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election- Umar Sa'ad Hassan by IBBG(m): 9:55am On Feb 14
zombies on rampage after a very apt analysis by the author

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