Can Buhari Still Win? - Politics - Nairaland
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| Can Buhari Still Win? by Nadheer15: 10:11am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Guys, I'm a hardcore BuBu fan but with the way it looks, I don't see him winning this. The guy's too gentle and Atiku would rig him out. If he allows this, he has done real bad to Nigerians. 2 Likes |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by dukie25: 10:12am On Feb 18, 2019 |
In Daura maybe. 9 Likes |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by IdreamOfUnicorn(f): 10:12am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Yes he can win In his dreams 11 Likes |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Buharimustgo16F: 10:14am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Pls My Atikulate Nigeria's pls dont Allowed Buhari APC hunger state of this Our Nation pass this weekend because we know God is on Our side in this Election. APC End is Now for Nigeria to move Forward. thank you 6 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by BabangidaHamza(m): 10:15am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Hmmm, We will beat them black and blue |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Abfinest007(m): 10:16am On Feb 18, 2019 |
with the kind of beating buhari will receive ur brain will format that instance 4 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by livelymatilda22: 10:30am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Nadheer15:Buhari will win, he is way too smart for Atiku and Pdp.. If you are a good observer, you would have noticed that Pdp is currently jittery and confused. 4 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by BuhariAdvocate: 11:00am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Nadheer15:call him mumu, bubu,lifeless whatever this election is BTW Tinubu and Atiku. |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Oyimeoyimemua(f): 11:00am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Let's watch and see |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by muykem: 11:06am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Buhari will win 61% of total vote. The people that shouting Atiku will win online should come out with state by state chances of contender. Buhari is winning in nothing less than 24 states. 3 Likes |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by lidnet: 11:12am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Keep Calm.. Next Level is Assured 2 Likes |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by lidnet: 11:13am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Keep Calm.. Next Level is Assured... When INEC is ready, we go again to vote For PMB. 1 Like |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Nobody: 11:15am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Nadheer15:Bubu will be milking his cows full-time in Daura very soon. Cc lzaa velocity25 pointzerom sarrki pythonamaka 5 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Francisayo(m): 11:15am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Me and my family we are for PMB.....no social media hate can stop me....... 2 Likes |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by sarrki(m): 11:16am On Feb 18, 2019 |
immhotep: It will never be well with those that call my name at every Of there post |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Firefire(m): 11:19am On Feb 18, 2019 |
sarrki: 2 Likes
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| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Firefire(m): 11:20am On Feb 18, 2019 |
immhotep: Insha’allah 4 Likes 2 Shares
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| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Nobody: 11:22am On Feb 18, 2019 |
sarrki:Back to Daura 1 Like
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| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Charmingrascal(m): 11:22am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Bros I swear nothing can stop him from winning, only God can and I know God will never allow those who loot our money for 16 years to come back to power. 1 Like |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Nadheer15: 11:32am On Feb 18, 2019 |
BuhariAdvocate:I call him Bubu not as an insult. I call him either Baba or Bubu |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Umarlawal(m): 11:55am On Feb 18, 2019 |
So, I’m going to create a math model to explains this – even though a simple one. Do not mind its simplicity however. “In principle, it matters not whether the math methods employed to carry out math proof are simple,” wrote William J. Adams, author of ‘Slippery Math in Public Affairs’, “or the ultimate in technical sophistication.” In doing this, I do not guarantee reality, only validity. That is, a promise of (a perfect) accuracy of the prediction of voter behaviour is neither explicitly nor tacitly claimed. Based on my postulates (a crystallization of my assumptions) however, my theorems (conclusions) are valid. Another person could bring forth a different set of postulates (the hypothesis) and reach conclusions that are different from mine – keeping in mind the RIRO (if realistic input, realistic output) and the NINO (nonsense in, nonsense out). Now that I’ve turned in my excuse early, let’s move on to the model. First we’ll start with the postulates; in logic or rhetoric, these would be called premises. The theorems or conclusions followed the postulates. The theorems are drawn based on the postulates. |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Umarlawal(m): 11:55am On Feb 18, 2019 |
The Postulates Postulate 1: Factors which influenced election victory have not changed since 2015. Such factors are: voting based on ethnicity and religion as well as Southeast and Niger Delta’s inclination to vote PDP. Postulate 2: Buhari will win the states he won in 2015 and PDP will win the states it won in 2015 except Benue and Nasarawa states. In 2015 winning Benue by Buhari was an anomaly. Therefore, in 2019, Benue will, as statisticians say, regress to the mean. It will go back to its normal position – to the PDP. The opposite will happen in Nasarawa State. Buhari has never won that state. But will win it this time, because all the PDP big shots have joined the APC. Postulate 3: Undecided voters (defined as those who didn’t vote in 2015) will vote in 2019. This model uses the voter register of 2015. |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Umarlawal(m): 11:56am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Postulate 4: The undecided voters will vote according to the states the PDP and the opposition parties won in 2015, except in Nasarawa and Benue. Postulate 5: All eligible voters will collect their permanent voter’s card (PVC) before the deadline and will vote. Postulate 6: Atiku will get 25% of votes from Northwest (because of Kwankwaso, Tambuwal, etc.) and from Niger State. Buhari will get 25% of votes from Southeast (because Gov Obiano campaigns for Buhari in Anambra and Ebonyi, Okorocha’s influence in Imo and former Gov Kalu’s popularity as APC senatorial candidate of Abia North). Postulate P: Other factors that may play a role in the result of the election are not being considered. |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Umarlawal(m): 11:56am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Theorems Theorem 1: Atiku will win all the states in the Southeast (7,665,859) and South-south (11,133,620) and Northcentral (6,610,827) except Niger State (2,014,317), Nasarawa State and Kwara State (1,142,267), giving him a total of 25,410,306. Theorem 2: Gen. Buhari will win all the states of the Northwest (17,620,436), all the states of the Southwest (13,731,090), Niger (2,014,317), Nasarawa and Kwara (1,142,267) states from Northcentral and all the states of the Northeast (6,208,197) except Taraba (1,340,652) and Adamawa (1,559,012) where he’ll share the votes with Atiku; giving Buhari a total of 40, 716,307 votes. Theorem 3: Gen Buhari will win the election with popular votes from 19 states or the equivalent of 40 million votes in percentage which is 59% of the votes. |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Umarlawal(m): 11:58am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Explanations This looks neat enough and makes mathematical sense. If you grant my postulates P1 through P6 and PP, you must also grant my theorems T1 through T3 as valid consequences of them. T1 follows from P1, P3, P4 and P5. T2 follows from P2, P3, P4, P5 and P6. T3 follows from T1 and T2. Postulate P states that other factors are not being considered. But what other factors? For a critical consumption of this model, let’s plainly state the factors. Boko Haram is not going to have as much sway on the voting patterns of the Northeastern states with a sizeable population of Christians. Northern Christians who voted for Jonathan in 2015 from Northeast are likely to vote Atiku in 2019 – regardless of the Boko Haram phenomenon. Thus, Boko Haram is not being considered for some of the Northeastern states. Let me give one example. Do you know that there were people in Chibok who voted Jonathan in 2015? |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Umarlawal(m): 12:06pm On Feb 18, 2019 |
This was against reasonable analysis then that Chibok wouldn’t vote PDP because of how Jonathan’s wife treated the Chibok Girls’ parents. Also, the fact that attacks by Boko Haram has increased in last weeks wouldn’t change the minds of those who have decided to vote Buhari. Also, the fact that President Buhari consistently continues to appoint a northern Christian as Secretary to the Government of the Federation will not translate to any votes in his favour. So this factor too is not being considered. Those who think the religious tool PDP used in 2011 and 2015 can no longer sway should think again. Of course Atiku is Muslim too. But many see him as more liberal than Buhari. Other factors abound – but they’re also not being considered. If you disagree with this model – I know many will – let me know what you think. |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by bishopkay: 12:08pm On Feb 18, 2019 |
See them dropping stupid postulates and unrealistic analysis! Baba listen to me @op buhari has since 2015 lost more grounds than he gained. With all the conspiracy and coalition, he managed to win then by 2.5 million votes. Now he has lost grounds due to his incompetence, penchant for breaking the law, bigotry, dictatorial tendencies and over all foolishness, thus at least 40% of people who voted for him then have seen him for the useless unrepentant bigot and incompetent dodo who he is and won't vote for him again. The people who didn't vote for him then would have been vindicated by their decision last elections and maintain status quo. The north central which is the deciding factor of the polls is definitely not voting him in like they did during the Last elections, so it's bye baba Buhari is losing this election! Mind you if you feel otherwise, kindly take me on with facts as I have stated here not mere emotional out pours 2 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by Optional09: 12:11pm On Feb 18, 2019 |
NO! NO! NO! He can’t even win councilor in Nigeria again. Wicked terrorist 1 Like |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by izombie(m): 12:21pm On Feb 18, 2019 |
Nadheer15:so you are his hardcore fan and that's the reason you'll vote him and not necessarily because of his good governance. Na una be the reason why naija is backward. Bubu has failed woefully and you should put the interest of nigeria first. 1 Like |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by APCsupporter: 12:27pm On Feb 18, 2019 |
Nadheer15: look there is no way atiku will win. If he can get 50% in SW and NC then he is already a winner |
| Re: Can Buhari Still Win? by APCsupporter: 12:27pm On Feb 18, 2019 |
Nadheer15: look there is no way atiku will win. If Buhari can get 50% in SW and NC then he is already a winner |
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