Except one is still locked with the belief that end result of any election is proportionally paralleled to the online poll's results, then such individual could be said of as someone who still thrives in self-denial, a delusionist and a personified rustic myopia.

With the incipient and most recent developments in the political realm across the country, it's safe to say that truly politics is local. Considering overwhelming jeers and name-callings Buhari's supporters were opened to...the amounts of verbal onslaughts against his supporters, one would think that one vote of opposing online camps was equivalent to a thousand votes.

No doubt, the tantrums wouldn't have gone without achieving, no matter how little, a negative impact on the outcome of the election. For instance, some people, out of flimsiness and feebleness of minds, would have definitely had their minds changed. But by overall, the deciding factors - often the commoners who are already recked by digital divide - had the last laughs.

Going on Twitter and other social media, the war of words is currently taking over the Cyber space with regards to who becomes the next occupant of Oke-Mosan after May 29. As much as it can be said that things like this are commonplaces in the political sphere, especially when it's about time again to decide. The fight will turn to the use of verbal weaponry. And it's now a case of who successfully dents who the more; or who gets and attracts more blemishes. It is about how tenaciously you can slanderously manipulate your way into the hearts of the majority.

However, regardless of what played out in the cyberspace, reality has a date, and it is Saturday 9th of March, 2019.

Accuracy is not certained, but with considerations of the standing factors, the alignment and realignment that's beclouding the political ambience, if the prediction is not too closed to the reality, it definitely would not be far from it:

Taking to reconnaissance the antecedent macro and micro political interplays in Ogun state, central senatorial district, in this dispensation, specifically, is going to decide who becomes the occupant of Oke Mosan comes May 29.

Before delving further, these figures are important to note:

Total number of registered voters across the 3 senatorial districts:

First:
Ogun Central: 909, 855 (6LGs)

Second:
Ogun West: 751, 218 (5LGs)

Third:
Ogun East: 710, 636 (9LGs)

EAST
PDP holds sway in this part of the state considering the heavyweights like Buruji and Adebutu. These two are grassroots politicians, more especially Buruji. Daniel would've been part of opinion millers and influencers in the district - if not in the state, but for his inactiveness after his rumbled tumble at the end of his tenure as governor. Not only this, the acrimonious relationship within the party in the state gives Daniel's political ideology no breathing space to germinate. Hence, Daniel became silent and irrelevant in the state's PDP's projects. And this brought about the emergency of Adebutu and Buruji.

Daniel, after poor outing in the presidential election, has now thrown his relatively featherweight support behind Dapo Abiodun, his and Amosun's one time friend. The alignment is actually like a zero after a decimal point - it has little or no relevance.

The only place PDP can gerner substantial vote is only in the east. However with the Adebutu's APM alignment, one should expect a significant deflection in the already inflated PDP's ego. And is why Abiodun would have to intensify the fight, this time seriously hard - with all he can - if at all he's to get any substantial vote. APM's hope is risen considering the alliance with Adebutu. But then APM will still have poor outing but definitely not to a complete nought. I predict as this:
PDP = 38%
APC = 27%
APM = 25%
ADC = 10%

Note: Money is a constant factor and it steals mind even without the owner's consent. If this comes to play, of which the first 3 contenders are well known for, then the out come might be in favour of who spends the most.

WEST
Well, the shout that it's 'our' turn could actually have a huge effect on the general outcome of the election in the state. "To be fair enough it's yewa's turn.", one traditional ruler from Ogun East (Sagamu) would have it thought out. This is one assertion from the eastern people and it gives credence to the cause being 'faught' for by Amosun and being championed by GNI. This cause is deeply rooted in the minds of many in the axis...in fact they're jealously fighting for it. So without much edo, the west would have no choice than to vote for their 'owns'. My prediction as follows:
APM = 45%
ADC = 40%
APC = 10%
PDP = 5%

Why?
45% APM: Considering the outcome of the previous election and with the Amosun's structure in almost all the local govts, like him or hate him, these local wardogs would not disappoint. Take this in addition to Amosun's power of incumbency - talk of the availability of funds - and to their regional identification consciousness. All these sum up, expect that 45%

40% ADC: except the financial manipulation in favour of APM, every other reasons is as well in order for ADC. Know, as justification for this allocation of vote portion, as independent as ADC is and as grassily rooted as you could think, ADC failed to win that senatorial district in the just concluded elections. In fact, it's sidelined to 3rd position. This, if ADC cares to know, is the reality of its acceptancy.

10% APC: The hatred being 'enjoyed' by or should I say being lashed upon Amosun and the influence of money would make the party have as much as that. Every other things being equal, APC may even have below. But my miracle and intensity of campaign of columny against Amosun, it could only surge to about 15%...and this is far from reality.

5% PDP: The political event of 2011 when GNI had to pitch his tent against PDP and floated another parties - PPN, LP - succeeded in making PDP a 'sub-regional' party in Ogun state. GNI's withdrawal of financial influx into PDP and his absence in the party ultimately buried the party in the West. So consequentially all the prospective supporters of PDP are now the astute followers of GNI.

The CENTRAL
Except you want to be complacent in bigotry and delusionment, you can't rule out Amosun's grips in the central. A lot of factors can be sighted to support this. Amosun's administration spent much of its time fixing the district. Aside the huge physical success, there are as well a huge physical failures. Yeah...talk of yet to be completed projects and a whole lot more. This is like a bait as far as Amosun is concerned. Truly, these people would want more attention of government...and the only person that can guarantee this is APM through Amosun. Based on this, alongside factors like power of incumbency, the financial manipulation and of course the extension of the 'Yewa Lokan's' movement, it would be relatively impossible for anyone to wrestle power from Amosun in the central. Addendum: Yewa would get sympathetic vote from the central. As far as this Yewa Lokan's project is concerned, Central remains bankable ally to the west. My prediction thus:
APM: 45%
ADC: 25%
APC: 20%
PDP: 10%

OVERALL
APM = 38% (minus/plus 2%)
ADC = 25% (minus/plus 2%)
APC = 19% (minus/plus 2%)
PDP = 18% (minus/plus 2%)

Other political parties (minus plus 8%)


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