jomoh:



Lol

Your analysis didn’t give any solution that can be considered better than that of the federal government. You’re just using your knowledge of the economy of foreign countries to bamboozle the obvious majority of economic illiterates on this site.

Remind me again the difference between what the federal government has done and what trump is doing with China presently?


At the bold paragraph. I don’t know how old you were between 2001-2007 but I remember the federal government did the same thing in our entertainment industry.

What did they do?

Ban all radio and TV stations from playing Foreign musics and films.

The result is what we see today.

Same thing was done on football but as we all know, the ROI on football is quite low especially in a country like nigeria where we only have the talents but lack the expertise to nurture talents.


Same thing was done partially in the auto industry by GEJ but failed because there was no steel industry to service the auto makers.

Jomoh, Nigerians tend to be highly religious people who believe there is always a simple solution to even extremely complex problems.

To the best of my knowledge, the last time America faced a crisis similar to the one it is facing was in the 1920's and it took over twenty years after the second world war to get their economy moving properly again.

What Trump is doing in China is pandering to illiterate Americans who believe China is the enemy and the cause of their woes. Even China is facing economic headwinds itself.

The crisis Nigeria is currently facing is a combination of our poor leadership and the fall out of America's economy.

To develop, Nigeria needs long term plans and not patch patch solutions. Everything starts with better education for our masses.

7lives:
Nigeria is not anti trade, Nigeria is anti dumping.
Let them come and set up their factories here or wear the textiles themselves.
So many block heads roaming Nairaland these days, if all we do is open the country to all kinds of imports, how do we stimulate local production that will create the much needed jobs?.

I wanted to "like" your comment more than once!

Too much block heads on this forum. Someone is even shouting 'Igbo traders' . Do you know the potential jobs this will create? Let the textile manufacturers in China, Turkey come down to Nigeria enough of importing things we can actually produce. Lack of information is a disability.

7lives:
Nigeria is not anti trade, Nigeria is anti dumping.
Let them come and set up their factories here or wear the textiles themselves.
So many block heads roaming Nairaland these days, if all we do is open the country to all kinds of imports, how do we stimulate local production that will create the much needed jobs?.

You want to encourage local production...
Where you dont have stable power supply.... no roads
Infrastructure at almost zero level...
How do you even compete with the Northern Elites..
That are warlords and textile smugglers.....
Go and read about Mangal smuggling empire in the North....
Nigeria biz environment is simply hostile to bizness...

7lives:
Nigeria is not anti trade, Nigeria is anti dumping.
Let them come and set up their factories here or wear the textiles themselves.
So many block heads roaming Nairaland these days, if all we do is open the country to all kinds of imports, how do we stimulate local production that will create the much needed jobs?.

How can local industries be competitive without regular power? Do you have any sense at all?

B1ak3:


Hahaha haha Aba trader to run CBN?? Lwkmd. Chai nothing person no go hear for nairaland. Clearly you know absolutely nothing about the issue being discussed. So I wonder why you didn't just read the topic and moved on

Atleast most of those traders have succeeded in managing a shop to big firms and what have you done with your life aside reading adam smith evolution of economies and the likes, you and your cohorts keep dishing out policies that adds no value to the economy. They did the same to rice,cement and sugar and what was the outcome?

No country in the world can be prosperous without focusing on productions of goods and failure to that will enhance instability to local currency as imported goods will mount pressure on forex while the Central Bank will feel the pressure of demands for dollars by importers as that usually caused inflammation which the masses suffer for.

And advantages of boosting the confidence of investors is for the government to provide hope of no threat of foreign goods - e.g. our Music Industry while the home industries creat more jobs that up grade the standard of living of the populace.

It'll be better to focus on how to build an economic growth of internal products than imported goods as only that can guarantee brighter and rewarding future of Nigeria.

Tianamen1:


Jomoh, Nigerians tend to be highly religious people who believe there is always a simple solution to even extremely complex problems.

To the best of my knowledge, the last time America faced a crisis similar to the one it is facing was in the 1920's and it took over twenty years after the second world war to get their economy moving properly again.

What Trump is doing in China is pandering to illiterate Americans who believe China is the enemy and the cause of their woes. Even China is facing economic headwinds itself.

The crisis Nigeria is currently facing is a combination of our poor leadership and the fall out of America's economy.

To develop, Nigeria needs long term plans and not patch patch solutions. Everything starts with better education for our masses.

You’ve gotten it wrong my brother.

Forget the media propaganda of CNN the American economy is doing very great for the first time in a very long time. Unemployment at the moment is the lowest in 10years. These are all results of the trump policies.


Here is a simply break down. Most companies have left the us to establish in China with lower labour cost where they produce and send to the US who obviously have the money and the market. Initially trump wanted to ban those product from entering the US thereby forcing them to come back to the US if they want to sell to the US market. The plan was later shelved because the American labour can not provide the cheap labour China is providing and they have other sources of revamping the economy. Now he prefers to increase import tariffs on China products thereby achieving two things.

1. Make money for the country from china
2. Force China to negotiate a trade agreement that will see China increase their imports of US products thereby providing jobs to Americans.



Now back to Nigerian situation

Yes Nigerian economy is affected by America’s but apart from oil that we sell to America is there anything else we export in large quantities? None. And we use the money we make from the oil we export to import other product more than we produce thereby returning their money back to them.


I don’t know where you lean on the policy but this policy is obviously not a short term solution neither a bit patch solution. This is a very long term solution that if managed well will be permanent and very good for the economy.


We can not keep waiting for the right moment. If we don’t take the leap we will never grow.

eluquenson:
So, you want to tell me our government are very sincere. SMH

How do you know a “sincere” government? No government in the world is sincere depending on the side of the policy you fall.


BTW do we have to wait for all of us to agree that the government is “sincere” before we make changes. It’s not going to happen cos some will always disagree.


But by my own appraisal, this government has shown more sincerity of purpose than any government in recent memory.

jomoh:


You’ve gotten it wrong my brother.

Forget the media propaganda of CNN the American economy is doing very great for the first time in a very long time. Unemployment at the moment is the lowest in 10years. These are all results of the trump policies.


Here is a simply break down. Most companies have left the us to establish in China with lower labour cost where they produce and send to the US who obviously have the money and the market. Initially trump wanted to ban those product from entering the US thereby forcing them to come back to the US if they want to sell to the US market. The plan was later shelved because the American labour can not provide the cheap labour China is providing and they have other sources of revamping the economy. Now he prefers to increase import tariffs on China products thereby achieving two things.

1. Make money for the country from china
2. Force China to negotiate a trade agreement that will see China increase their imports of US products thereby providing jobs to Americans.



Now back to Nigerian situation

Yes Nigerian economy is affected by America’s but apart from oil that we sell to America is there anything else we export in large quantities? None. And we use the money we make from the oil we export to import other product more than we produce thereby returning their money back to them.


I don’t know where you lean on the policy but this policy is obviously not a short term solution neither a bit patch solution. This is a very long term solution that if managed well will be permanent and very good for the economy.


We can not keep waiting for the right moment. If we don’t take the leap we will never grow.

I am going to give you 5 names of different influential men in global economics. Google them a learn what the true reason for the crisis America is facing and not the simplistic view you and Trump share

Ray Dalio
Billionaire trader

Tom piketty
Best selling Author of book about capitalism

Paul Krugman
2008 Nobel prize winner in Economics

Peter Schiff
Popular media personality, and strong proponent of the Austrian School of thought

Jeff gundlach, the bond king, American investor.

Things that seem obvious are not always as they seem. There are always multiple stories.

Import subtracted from exports is only 1 component of GDP. A country can be very rich having fewer exports than imports if it meets most of its people's needs.
Have a great day

7lives:
Nigeria is not anti trade, Nigeria is anti dumping.
Let them come and set up their factories here or wear the textiles themselves.
So many block heads roaming Nairaland these days, if all we do is open the country to all kinds of imports, how do we stimulate local production that will create the much needed jobs?.

You're calling people blockheads but you're pushing a similar narrative. You do not stimulate growth by banning anything, has never worked anywhere, will never work in Nigeria! Do you know the power needs of textile industries alone? How is power supply in your area? Does banning Forex for textile imports translate to improved power supply immediately? Does it mean we suddenly have the expertise or factories to meet local demand? You gradually build the local industry on the one hand, and still allow imports with possibly higher tariffs or duties on the other hand, to meet consumption demand. The FGN increased import duty on tokunbo cars, so we can produce NEW cars in Nigeria Did you buy a new car? How many Nigerians saw a made in Nigeria car to buy, and how much? What happened? Smugglers business boomed, port revenue decreased, jobs and businesses were hit and last quarter, the customs boss called for import duty REDUCTION to 45% on the same tokunbo cars.

Next

With what infrastructure : DIESEL

You are a block head as far as I’m concerned !

7lives:
Nigeria is not anti trade, Nigeria is anti dumping.
Let them come and set up their factories here or wear the textiles themselves.
So many block heads roaming Nairaland these days, if all we do is open the country to all kinds of imports, how do we stimulate local production that will create the much needed jobs?.

The guys head is blocked and fried.

darqly:


You're calling people blockheads but you're pushing a similar narrative. You do not stimulate growth by banning anything, has never worked anywhere, will never work in Nigeria! Do you know the power needs of textile industries alone? How is power supply in your area? Does banning Forex for textile imports translate to improved power supply immediately? Does it mean we suddenly have the expertise or factories to meet local demand? You gradually build the local industry on the one hand, and still allow imports with possibly higher tariffs or duties on the other hand, to meet consumption demand. The FGN increased import duty on tokunbo cars, so we can produce NEW cars in Nigeria Did you buy a new car? How many Nigerians saw a made in Nigeria car to buy, and how much? What happened? Smugglers business boomed, port revenue decreased, jobs and businesses were hit and last quarter, the customs boss called for import duty REDUCTION to 45% on the same tokunbo cars.

Tianamen1:


I am going to give you 5 names of different influential men in global economics. Google them a learn what the true reason for the crisis America is facing and not the simplistic view you and Trump share

Ray Dalio
Billionaire trader

Tom piketty
Best selling Author of book about capitalism

Paul Krugman
2008 Nobel prize winner in Economics

Peter Schiff
Popular media personality, and strong proponent of the Austrian School of thought

Jeff gundlach, the bond king, American investor.

Things that seem obvious are not always as they seem. There are always multiple stories.

Import subtracted from exports is only 1 component of GDP. A country can be very rich having fewer exports than imports if it meets most of its people's needs.
Have a great day

Ok can you give me a link, I’d love to read up on the cause of the American problem.


Still On the Nigerian issue. If import and export substitution is just 1 component then you will agree with me that we haven’t even gotten that one right let alone the other ones you may be talking about.

Let us get this straight first before moving to the others.

urahara:


Again , just like the same nonsense with rice.


Nigeria is very very anti trade.

That both of you couldn't figure out that for a country to grow, it has to protect her local industry says how very little you know of economics. Even your open trade Western countries protect their local industries always (Recent case in point: donald Trump's trade war with China)

lastempero:
Nigeria is a joke of a country, where you dashing them the foreign currency before,if you people know howfar igbos have gone in business,CBN will hire a trader at Onitsha or aba to come n manage CBN because it seems CBN is more confused than buhari.there are 1001 ways to source for foreign exchange.

see foolish talk.
Na only bitterness for d president of everyone for him generation dey him brain, notin more.
Slaps

lastempero:
The same was done on rice,cement and even sugar but no impact was felt.

Actually, the effect can be found in cement.

It led to a massive increase in cement production. That can not be taken away.

But was it really positive? It was one step forward and 5 steps backward.

Cement sold locally is very expensive due to lack of foreign competition. It has also made Dangote a multi billionaire.

In 2014, Dangote cement declared an after tax profit which was above 50% of their sales figure.

That means if Dangote slashed his cement price by half, he would still declare a profit after tax!

The high cost of cement would have impacted negatively on the construction industry. I'm sure more labourers would been employed and more houses built.

I would not be surprised that for every job his cement plants created, 10 were lost in the construction industry

lastempero:
We have too many educated fools in Nigeria and that is why the economy of the country is not growing and someone is up there shouting that Nigeria is anti dumping,america should have banned apple and other big electronic companies to stop producing there goods in China and it seems buhari wants to cripple the economy of this nation before dying.

Olodo, being a poor large consuming nation does nothing but kills your economy? What school did you go to?

7lives:
Nigeria is not anti trade, Nigeria is anti dumping.
Let them come and set up their factories here or wear the textiles themselves.
So many block heads roaming Nairaland these days, if all we do is open the country to all kinds of imports, how do we stimulate local production that will create the much needed jobs?.

shei dey have to set up the factories in a country where the govt is mill businesses with bad economical policies

Tianamen1:
Of the original 41 banned items, how many have Nigerians started producing locally?

Governments everywhere are the worst allocators of resources. Once they start choosing to give special interest rates to industries, corruption will certainly follow. In fact, only countries like China where people are killed for corruption can such policies as these work.

Grandstar, a focus on exports will also not work the same way you now realise import substitution does not work.

Any form of government intervention to spur a specific sector hardly ever works because people are inherently corrupt.

When the US Economy was collapsing in 2008, the federal reserve reduced interest rates to close to zero percent to help spur lending but the banks still refused to lend money out. They simply used the money to speculate in the markets and to buy back their stocks. This created an illusion of a recovery in the US economy however, common Americans did not benefit in anyway so inequality grew, and social unrest is currently at the highest levels in decades.

In the Eurozone, the biggest cost to Britain is payments to subsidize farmers in other European countries. Apart from issues with immigration, this is the biggest reason for Brexit.

A government's role in an economy should not go beyond providing Education, healthcare, security and Law and order. In order to achieve these things, infrastructure such as electricity, roads, transportation systems, communication technology, public water works, etc will have to be developed. In most climes, their central banks only have one purpose which is to fight inflation.

How much did our government invest in our musicians and our film industry, yet today both are robust and are contributing to our GDP and also creating lots of employment.

Our fight should be for a reduced civil service and an increase in spending on public goods such as education as earlier stated.

As much as I appreciate minimal government interference in the economy, I want us to know that she cpntrols the big gun (macro). Hence her action or inaction has effects. Even the perfect market, in reality, is not perfect.

However, I am against closing the country trade wise. with the right policies, local production will have advantage over imported goods and importation will suffer a natural haemhorrage.

Shadymurphy:


Let's ban to encourage the people in Aba if that is what it will take to improve our economy. I heard Agricultural sector contributed 30% to 2018 GDP. I think other sectors can do better. We only need the will power to do the needful.

Instead of banning, why not compete. Produce your own and let whoever wants to import do So. If what you produce locally is of good quality, believe me people will buy and abandon the imported goods. By the time the importers see that people are buying more of locally made, nobody will tell them to look elsewhere . But this gra gra won't work.

StevenOba:
Too much block heads on this forum. Someone is even shouting 'Igbo traders' . Do you know the potential jobs this will create? Let the textile manufacturers in China, Turkey come down to Nigeria enough of importing things we can actually produce. Lack of information is a disability.

Before telling them to come open factories here, do you have steady power and good roads plus security? Or you want them to come and spend more money running generators and risking their lives? Why not tell your leaders to stop travelling abroad for treatment and shopping?

Why not tell them to stop sponsoring people to Mecca or Jerusalem to go and pray to God as if God is not in Nigeria.

grandstar:
0

Actually, the effect can be found in cement.

It led to a massive increase in cement production. That can not be taken away.

But was it really positive? It was one step forward and 5 steps backward.

Cement sold locally is very expensive due to lack of foreign competition. It has also made Dangote a multi billionaire.

In 2014, Dangote cement declared an after tax profit which was above 50% of their sales figure.

That means if Dangote slashed his cement price by half, he would still declare a profit after tax!

The high cost of cement would have impacted negatively on the construction industry. I'm sure more labourers would been employed and more houses built.

I would not be surprised that for every job his cement plants created, 10 were lost in the construction industry

At least I have seen someone that understand what we are talking about here,I have first hand information on that of cement, our people at the helm of affair don't factor all that you mentioned above into consideration b4 taking their backward decision.

jayfolarin:


Olodo, being a poor large consuming nation does nothing but kills your economy? What school did you go to?

Mumu outside the test books you read in school so you can reason with your sense and know what is peculiar to your country and know that your country dont have the capacity to produce textile materials in the next 50 years and the only effect this policy will have on the economy is just to squeeze it the more. America should have banned apple and other big electronic companies from producing their products outside america or you should ask your demigod to ban the importation of generators when you dont have enough power to go round.

Sagay212:


Before telling them to come open factories here, do you have steady power and good roads plus security? Or you want them to come and spend more money running generators and risking their lives? Why not tell your leaders to stop travelling abroad for treatment and shopping?

Why not tell them to stop sponsoring people to Mecca or Jerusalem to go and pray to God as if God is not in Nigeria.

My brother see what is killing Nigeria,I wonder what these guys learnt from school,they just dish out policies without knowing the after effect of the policy.

ehinmowo:



As much as I appreciate minimal government interference in the economy, I want us to know that she cpntrols the big gun (macro). Hence her action or inaction has effects. Even the perfect market, in reality, is not perfect.

However, I am against closing the country trade wise. with the right policies, local production will have advantage over imported goods and importation will suffer a natural haemhorrage.

in theory what you've said is accurate. Unfortunately, economics studies human behavior and overtime it has being seen that only smuggling and the impoverishment of the Nigerian people happens when we ban goods.

We need to create a productive environment. The most important element in achieving this is security. Nigeria's security issues are tied mainly to poverty. This implies that banning goods would lead to more poverty which would lead to insecurity, further damaging Nigeria's fragile industrial environment.

A focus on education and healthcare would reduce poverty and naturally spur industrialization.

grandstar:

What kind of third world country is this that does not have a textile sector that is a massive exporter of textiles and garments? If the nation has failed in that, it shows there are deep-rooted problems why the textile industry is dormant here.

Thank you. It time Nigeria grow her export,however we need to address the basic problems that make production an uphill task. Why can't we solve the root cause problem of power. Any Textile company running on Generators cannot compete with imported materials. The aim of a business is to make profit.

grandstar:
This so called economist must have been solely educated I'm Nigeria because most of them just have some head knowledge. They are the equivalent of the computer science graduates from the nation's public universities with little knowledge about computing. Just theory and book work

How can an economist say that the country is spending half of the budget deficit on imported textiles? What correlation does that have? The government isn't the one spending the money on importing the textiles. Textile importers simply source the forex from the CBN and they pay for it! They didn't dash them this money or lent it to them.

If I sell you $500,000 at 360 to a $1 and you pay me 180m and you use the $500,000 to import textiles and the ship carrying it capsizes and you lose all stock, that one no concern me. I don collect my 180m

This ban from the CBN will simply put massive pressure on the black market and there'll be a massive gap between it and the investor window down for forex.

A government trying to fight corruption should do it's utmost for all business to be done above ground and not below it where corruption is bound to thrive.

Also,there's nothing wrong in importing textiles. How will the textile factories be competitive when there's inadequate power and high lending rates. This is doomed to fail from the word go. The Bank of Industry lent them 200b in the past which I'm sure a good chunk we t down the drain

It's time government focused on an export or perish mentality because that's the proper way to industrialise and not through import substitution which forces you to pour resources on areas lack comparative advantage.

What kind of third world country is this that does not have a textile sector that is a massive exporter of textiles and garments? If the nation has failed in that, it shows there are deep-rooted problems why the textile industry is dormant here.

If you are into production or manufacturing you won't write all the things you wrote above

lastempero:


Mumu outside the test books you read in school so you can reason with your sense and know what is peculiar to your country and know that your country dont have the capacity to produce textile materials in the next 50 years and the only effect this policy will have on the economy is just to squeeze it the more. America should have banned apple and other big electronic companies from producing their products outside america or you should ask your demigod to ban the importation of generators when you dont have enough power to go round.

You are too dumbb and emotional to warrant a reply from me. Get some real life economics lesson and you will see the truth to what the adults are saying on this forum about this topic

jayfolarin:


That both of you couldn't figure out that for a country to grow, it has to protect her local industry says how very little you know of economics. Even your open trade Western countries protect their local industries always (Recent case in point: donald Trump's trade war with China)

The problem with Nigeria is that it's infant industries have not grown up since 1960.

Tianamen1:
Of the original 41 banned items, how many have Nigerians started producing locally?

Governments everywhere are the worst allocators of resources. Once they start choosing to give special interest rates to industries, corruption will certainly follow. In fact, only countries like China where people are killed for corruption can such policies as these work.

Grandstar, a focus on exports will also not work the same way you now realise import substitution does not work.

Any form of government intervention to spur a specific sector hardly ever works because people are inherently corrupt.

When the US Economy was collapsing in 2008, the federal reserve reduced interest rates to close to zero percent to help spur lending but the banks still refused to lend money out. They simply used the money to speculate in the markets and to buy back their stocks. This created an illusion of a recovery in the US economy however, common Americans did not benefit in anyway so inequality grew, and social unrest is currently at the highest levels in decades.

In the Eurozone, the biggest cost to Britain is payments to subsidize farmers in other European countries. Apart from issues with immigration, this is the biggest reason for Brexit.

A government's role in an economy should not go beyond providing Education, healthcare, security and Law and order. In order to achieve these things, infrastructure such as electricity, roads, transportation systems, communication technology, public water works, etc will have to be developed. In most climes, their central banks only have one purpose which is to fight inflation.

How much did our government invest in our musicians and our film industry, yet today both are robust and are contributing to our GDP and also creating lots of employment.

Our fight should be for a reduced civil service and an increase in spending on public goods such as education as earlier stated.

My dear too many shallow minded individuals are too many for Nigeria.