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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Could CBDCs be the End of Bitcoin?

Ever since Facebook publicized its plans to develop a digital currency called Libra, central banks across the globe have tried to counter it with their cryptocurrency. While Facebook’s Libra has come under heavy scrutiny and regulatory obstacles, more than 80% of the world’s central banks are working assiduously to develop a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

Meanwhile, the foundational basis of a CBDC is fundamentally disparate to what Bitcoin (BTC) is about. That said, the cryptocurrency community has begun speculating what the effect of a government-issued digital currency would have on the benchmark cryptocurrency.

Below are some of the possible outcomes of CBDCs on Bitcoin:

Plot A

The common expectation is that CBDCs will be bad for Bitcoin and the crypto industry at large, considering that world governments will place their weight behind CBDCs giving it a higher adoption rate compared to BTC.

Plot B

The next popular opinion is that CBDCs could give Bitcoin better widespread use and adoption, as it could spark heightened interest in digital currencies.

Plot C

Assuming that Plot A comes into fruition, there would be no use for Bitcoin as a peer-to-peer payment system. However, this doesn’t mean BTC becomes useless, instead, it becomes an excellent store of value.


BTCUSD -4-Hour Chart
Key BTC Levels to Watch in the Near-Term

Bitcoin, against popular belief, doesn’t seem to be slowing down any time soon. The cryptocurrency just recorded a new YTD high at $13,357 in the past 24 hours. BTC has been trading within a consolidation range between $13,300 and $12,895 for the past four days, as traders expect a fresh bull wave.

That said, as long as Bitcoin maintains its stance above the $12,895 support, we could see a fresh bull wave in the coming days. A sustained fall below the aforementioned support could trigger an extended retracement for the cryptocurrency.

Total market capital: $395.4 billion

Bitcoin market capital: $241 billion

Bitcoin dominance: 61%


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EURUSD Risks Deeper Decline at 1.1800 Level on Surge in Europe COVID-19 Cases

EURUSD Price Analysis – October 26
Growing fears of a surge in Europe Covid-19 cases may slowdown economic recovery as new infections trigger stricter measures and prompt investors into safety. EURUSD risks a deeper decline at the 1.1800 level as buyers repeatedly failed to make a sustained break above the daily cloud top around the 1.1850 level.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.2150, 1.2011, 1.1917
Support Levels: 1.1807, 1.1612, 1.1422
EURUSD Long-term Trend: Ranging
EURUSD is under pressure, trading near the 1.1810 level, and is in danger of further falling. The EURUSD rally appears to have hit a decent barrier at recent highs around 1.1880. A break of this area is expected to push the pair higher towards the 1.1917 area as the bullish trend is expected to resume at the key level.

In a broader context, the rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third phase of the pattern from 1.0339 (low). A further rally towards the cluster resistance at 1.2011 can be seen. This will remain a preferable case as long as the resistance at 1.1422 is held and turned into support.

EURUSD Short-term Trend: Ranging
EURUSD intraday trend stays neutral as consolidation from 1.1880 regions continues. Nevertheless, further growth stays in favor while maintaining the support level of 1.1685. The break into 1.1880 regions will be a test at the 1.2011 high. The 4 hours chart shows that the pair is developing below the moderately bearish 5 and 13 moving averages.

A move below 1.1800 is needed to mark an immediate (minor) high for a pullback to the bottom of the short-term channel seen at 1.1725. On the other hand, a breakout of 1.1685 is likely to extend the corrective pattern from 1.2011 by one more phase. Intraday bias will return to the downside towards 1.1612 and below.


Source: https://learn2.trade

EUR/CHF Is in an uptrend, May Reach Level 1.0730

Key Resistance Levels: 1.0800, 1.0900, 1.1000
Key Support Levels: 1.0600, 1.0500, 1.0400

EUR/CHF Price Long-term Trend: Ranging
EUR/CHF has been on a downward move since September 25. On October 15 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested 78.6 % Fibonacci retracement level. This indicates that the pair will fall and reach a low of 1.272 and later reverse.


EUR/CHF – Daily Chart
Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The pair is at level 41 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. It implies that the market is in a downtrend and below the centerline 50. The 50-day SMA and 21-day SMA are sloping horizontally. It indicates the sideways trend.

EUR/CHF Medium-term Trend: Bullish
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is also rising. On October 20, a retraced candle body tested 50 Fibonacci retracement level. This also indicates that the pair will rise and reach level 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That is the low level of 1.0730.


EUR/CHF – 30 Min Chart
4 Hour Chart Indicator Reading

The 50-day and 21-day SMAs are sloping sideways indicating the previous trend. The pair is below the 30% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the market is in a bearish momentum.

General Outlook for EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF is rising after breaking the initial resistance. The price rebounded at level 1.0714 to resume the upward move. According to the Fibonacci tool, the market will reach level of 1.0730.

Source: https://learn2.trade

Will the 2020 United States presidential election upheave the markets?

Hello Traders:

The 2020 United States presidential election is here and traders are expecting high volatility in the markets.

My Take
Nothing unusual and nothing extraordinary will happen in the markets. The markets don’t surprise people when they’re looking out for such; surprises come only when people don’t expect them.


An informational traffic sign post indicating a financial market business concept – a clipping path is included to separate sign from bkg. Canon 5D MarkII and composition in Photoshop.

Let’s use an example of an eye that has seen the ocean and the sea. When that same eye observes a pool of water in the bathroom, it would be as though it has seen nothing; when compared to the ocean and the sea. The effects of the election on the markets might turn out to be a pool in the bathroom.

I forecast that the elections might bring a measure of volatility, but the volatility would pale into insignificance when compared to what happened as recent as March 2020. Those March events caught the world by surprise.

There are many examples like that. So elections are being held in the US, and you’re expecting something extraordinary? Sorry, the market has a knack for going against the expectations of the public. Because you expect storms in the markets; the storms won’t be as extraordinary as you currently imagine.



We may see a continuation in the current market directions or spikes in opposite directions, followed by trend continuations. It may even be complete and sustained changes in trends. But whatever happens, it is not going to be anything new or unusual.


What I Will Do

That is why I hold some positions. If things go against me, I can’t lose more than say, 1.5% per trade (perhaps huge slippage and spreads factored in). In case things move in my favor, then I would be grateful for whatever the markets give me. After all, my rewards are always higher than the risk.



What can you do if you disagree with this post?

The answer is simple. Stay out of the markets. But you will realize later that there is no big deal after all.



Source: https://learn2.trade

Litecoin (LTC) Is Likely to Sink Below $51 as Bulls and Bears Tussle for Price Possession

Key Highlights
Litecoin plunges to $51 low and corrected upward
LTC risks further downward move as price reaches overbought region

Litecoin (LTC) Current Statistics
The current price: $52.49
Market Capitalization: $3,453,939,467
Trading Volume: $2,849,880,504
Major supply zones: $70, $80, $90
Major demand zones: $50, $30, $10

Litecoin (LTC) Price Analysis November 3, 2020
Litecoin has been on a downward move. Today, the bearish impulse reached a low of $51 and corrected upward. Presently, it is facing another rejection at the $53 high. There is a likelihood of a further downward move.

On the downside, if price retraces and breaks below the $51 support, the market will drop to $46 or $47 support. The coin will resume an uptrend if the price finds support above $51. The $51 support is where the coin resumes upside momentum.


LTC/USD – Daily Chart
Litecoin (LTC) Technical Indicators Reading
The coin is below the 60% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that it is in the bearish momentum. The selling pressure of the coin will persist once the price breaks below the SMAs. The coin is at level 50 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. It indicates that there is a balance between supply and demand.


LTC/USD – Daily Chart
Conclusion
Litecoin is likely to further decline as price retests the $56 high. On October 30 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. This indicates that the market will further depreciate to level 1.618 Fibonacci extensions or $47 low.


Source: https://learn2.trade

Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis: Ether Hovers Above $450 Support for a Possible Uptrend Continuation

Key Highlights
Ether fluctuates above $450 support
The coin has a target price of $488 high

Ethereum (ETH) Current Statistics
The current price: $458.89
Market Capitalization: $52,029,363,330
Trading Volume: $14,108,917,588
Major supply zones: $280, $320, $360
Major demand zones: $160, $140, $100

Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis November 11, 2020
On November 10, the altcoin rebounded but could not break the $470 resistance. The upward move was repelled as price retraced to the $455 low. The upside momentum will always resume as long as price finds support above $450 support.

Presently, the coin is trading at $462 at the time of writing. On the upside, a strong bounce above $460 will propel price to break the $470 resistance. Ether will rally above $488 once the $470 resistance is breached. The upside momentum will be invalidated if the bears break the $450 and the $430 support level.


ETH/USD – Daily Chart
ETH Technical Indicators Reading
Ethereum is trading above the resistance line of the ascending channel. The biggest altcoin will continue to trend higher as long as price is sustained above the resistance line. The coin will resume a downward move if the price breaks below the resistance line.


ETH/USD – 4 Hour Chart

Conclusion
Ethereum bulls are close to breaking the resistance at $470. Once the resistance is broken the Fibonacci tool analysis will hold. When the coin was resisted on November 7 uptrend, the retraced candle body tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This explains that the coin is likely to move up to level 2.0 Fibonacci extension which is $539.17 high.

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Analyst Believes Bitcoin is Working According to Plan Ahead of Six-Digit Projection

The creator of the popular stock-to-flow model, PlanB, has affirmed that Bitcoin (BTC) is going according to plan like “clockwork, “ following its third halving event. PlanB, an anonymous developer, has lauded the S2FX model and believes that BTC will be trading between $100,000 and $288,000 by the end of 2021.

The stock-to-flow model and other existing variations are some of the most used BTC prediction tools within the cryptocurrency community.

The first version of S2FX, known as the original stock-to-flow ratio, outlined the stock of existing reserves and the flow (the annual supply of BTC in the market). The ensuing version provided more complex and comprehensive Bitcoin information. Apart from stock and flow, it also showed the different phases BTC has passed through since its creation in 2009. These phases include proof-of-concept, the payment phase, e-gold, and financial assets.

The Bitcoin halving, which occurs automatically every four years, is arguably the most crucial part of the models because it cuts BTC supply in half, which decreases the flow. That said, PlanB and S2FX supporters monitor Bitcoin’s price performance assiduously after every halving.

The analyst asserted that the benchmark cryptocurrency is moving like clockwork since its third halving in May. already, Bitcoin is showing some similarities with the price dynamics in 2012.


BTCUSD – 4-Hour Chart

Key BTC Levels to Watch in the Near-Term — November 11

Bitcoin remains on a strong bullish trajectory, despite many projections that bullish steam might be running out. The cryptocurrency has renewed its 2020 high, after hitting $16,000 just a few hours ago. This is a good sign that the bullish momentum is still intact. That said, we could see BTC hit the $16,500 – $17,000 area soon.

However, we could see a mild pullback towards the mid-$15,000 in the coming hours.

Total market capital: $453 billion

Bitcoin market capital: $291 billion

Bitcoin dominance: 64%

Source: https://learn2.trade

EURJPY Bearish Momentum Remains Toward 123.00 Level

EURJPY Price Analysis – November 20
The EURJPY pair is attempting to close beneath the 123.37 price zone as speculative interest stays trapped between coronavirus outbreaks and vaccine hopes. The pairs selling momentum remains toward the 123.00 level.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 127.07, 125.00, 123.37
Support Levels: 122.37, 121.61, 119.31
EURJPY Long term Trend: Ranging
As seen in the daily time frame, the downside pressure is expected to accelerate if EURJPY breaks below the 123.00 support, exposing the ascending trendline support and the 122.37 low. Meanwhile, the moving average 5 and 13 stays mixed for a range in the coming sessions.

If the 123.00 support holds, a surge towards the 123.40 level could be expected during the following trading session. However, a barrier around the MA 13 could serve as a limitation for bullish traders within this session. Lower here a firm breach of 119.31 level will argue that the rise from 114.42 level has completed and turned the focus back lower.
EURJPY Short term Trend: Ranging
The intraday bias in EURJPY is staying in consolidation with the current recovery. A much more decline is mildly in consideration with 123.37 minor resistance level intact. Beneath the 122.37 level will target a test on the 121.61 low level initially.

The resolute breach there may restart the trend from 127.07 level with another decline to 119.31 key support level. On the upside, though, a breach of 123.37 minor resistance level may shift sentiment back to the upside for the 125.00 level instead.

Source: https://learn2.trade

USD/JPY Is Reaching Bearish Exhaustion, May Reverse at Level 103.23

Key Resistance Levels: 111.000, 112.000, 113.000
Key Support Levels: 104.000, 103.000, 102.000

USD/JPY Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
The USD/JPY pair has been in a downward move since November 12 after a rebound above level 103.30. The pair is approaching the previous support at level 103.30. The selling pressure will resume if the current is broken. The Yen will resume an upward move if the support holds.


USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping downward indicating the downtrend. The pair has fallen to level 40 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. The pair is in the downtrend zone and capable of falling.

USD/JPY Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has been in a downward move after rejection at 105.00. On November 18 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This indicates that the market will fall to level 1.272 Fibonacci extensions. That is the Yen will reach the low of level 103.23 and reverse.


USD/JPY – 4 Hour Chart
4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The USD/JPY pair is currently above the 25% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in a bullish momentum. The SMAs are sloping downward indicating the downtrend.

General Outlook for USD/JPY
USD/JPY has been on a downward move but the selling pressure is reaching bearish exhaustion. According to the Fibonacci tool analysis, the Yen will fall and reverse at level 103.23.

Source: https://learn2.trade

XRP/USD Pulls Back at Resistance Level of $0.72

XRP/USD MARKET NOVEMBER 26
After the price retracement, it may resume its bullish trend and the resistance level of $0.79 and $0.88 may be reached. Below the current price, the level is found the support levels at $0.55, $0.44, and $0.39. However, the relative strength index period 14 is at 70 levels bending down to indicate a sell signal which may be a pullback.

KEY LEVELS:
Resistance levels: $0.72, $0.79, $0.88

Support levels: $0.61, $0.55, $0.49

XRP/USD Long-term Trend: Bullish
XRPUSD is bullish in the long-term outlook; the crypto soars towards the north by the strong bullish momentum. The bulls’ momentum breaks up the resistance levels of $0.28, $0.33, and $0.36. The price has tested the resistance level of $0.79 on October 24. The price pulls back to retest the broken level of $0.61. Today, the XRP market is dominated by the bears and the daily candle is bearish. The price may increase further after the pullback.


XRPUSD Daily chart, November 26
The two EMAs are located below the coin and it is trading far above 9 periods EMA and 21 periods EMA which indicate a strong bullish momentum. After the price retracement, it may resume its bullish trend and the resistance level of $0.79 and $0.88 may be reached. Below the current price, the support levels is found at $0.55, $0.44, and $0.39. However, the relative strength index period 14 is at 70 levels bending down to indicate a sell signal which may be a pullback.

XRP/USD medium-term Trend: Bullish
The bulls dominate the XRPUSD market. Immediately after the breakout from the consolidation zone, the bulls push the price high above the September high. It is currently pulling back at the resistance level of $0.72. The price is testing the support level of $0.55 at the time of writing this report. In case the just mentioned level does not hold, there will be a further price reduction.


XRPUSD 4-Hour chart, November 26
The price has penetrated the two EMAs downside and it is trading below 9 periods EMA and 21 periods EMA. The fast-moving EMA is trying to cross the slow-moving EMA downside. The relative strength index period 14 is pointing down at 50 levels which connotes a sell signal and it may be a pullback.

Source: https://learn2.trade

Litecoin (LTC) Sustains Recent Rallies, Faces Resistance at $90 High

Key Highlights
Litecoin rallies to the high of $90
The crypto may be range-bound between $80 and $90

Litecoin (LTC) Current Statistics
The current price: $89.20
Market Capitalization: $5,900,735,267
Trading Volume: $7,953,660,011
Major supply zones: $70, $80, $90
Major demand zones: $50, $30, $10

Litecoin (LTC) Price Analysis November 24, 2020
Litecoin has continued its rallies as the coin reached a high of $89.86. LTC price has been making a series of higher highs and higher lows. The upward move has been facing resistance at $90. On the upside, if buyers can push LTC above $90, the coin will rally above $100 high. However, if buyers fail to resume the upside momentum, LTC will be compelled to a sideways move for a few days. If the uptrend is resisted the coin will be range bound between $80 and $90.


LTC/USD – Daily Chart
Litecoin (LTC) Technical Indicators Reading
LTC price broke the resistance line of the ascending channel. This indicates a further upward movement of the coin. The crypto is at level 74 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. It indicates that the coin is in the overbought region of the market.


LTC/USD – 4 Hour Chart

Conclusion
Litecoin has made an impressive bullish run on the upside. Nevertheless, the retraced candle body on October 31 tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. It indicates that the coin will rise to a level of 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. This extension is equivalent to $70 high. Meanwhile, the price action is above the projected price level.

Source: https://learn2.trade

Germany 30 (DE30EUR) Is in a Downward Move, May Fall to Level 13153.70

Key Resistance Zones: 13600, 14000, 14400
Key Support Zones: 11200, 10800, 10400

Germany 30 (DE30EUR) Long-term Trend: Bullish
The index is an upward move but it is facing resistance at level 13200. It must have reached bullish exhaustion as it faces rejection. On November 10, a retraced candle body tested the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement. This indicates that the index will rise to level 1.1129 and perhaps reversed.


DE30EUR – Daily Chart
Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
Presently, the SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. The index is at level 64 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. This indicates that it is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50.

Germany 30 (DE30EUR) Medium-term Trend: Bullish
On the 4- hour chart, the index is in a downward move. On November 30 downtrend, a retraced candle body tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This implies that the index will fall and reach level 1.618 Fibonacci extension.


DE30EUR – 2 Hour Chart
4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The market is below the 80% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the index is in a bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA and the 21-day SMA are sloping upward indicating the uptrend.


General Outlook for Germany 30 (DE30EUR)
DE30EUR is likely to take a downward movement. The index has been trading in the overbought region. Sellers may emerge to push prices down. However, in a trending market, the overbought condition may not hold. That is the pair will continue to rise.

Source: https://learn2.trade

EURUSD Upside Run Halts Under the Barrier at 1.2150 Level Suggesting Deeper Pullbacks

EURUSD Price Analysis – December 9
The major European currency adds to prior session corrective downside and takes EURUSD to fresh lows in the sub-1.2100 area. EURUSD appears to be fading after its upside run halts under barrier 1.2150 level. The pair is off its highs could extend its downward correction.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.2350, 1.2200, 1.2150
Support Levels: 1.2040, 1.1920, 1.1800

EURUSD Long term Trend: Bullish
The upside traction in EURUSD eased in the proximity of the 1.2200 resistance level in prior sessions. At the moment, the pair is losing 0.12% at the 1.2110 level and confronts the next support at 1.2040 level seconded by 1.2011 level and finally 1.1920 level.

On the other hand, a breakout of 1.2150 level would target 1.2177 level (high Dec 4) en route to 1.2200 resistance level. The alternative scenario sees the loss of the 1.20 zone as an initial bearish signal, which would be boosted on a breach beneath last week’s low at the 1.1922 level.

EURUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
The intraday bias in EURUSD stays neutral for some range trading beneath the 1.2177 temporary high level. Meanwhile, the downside of the retreat should be contained by the 1.2011 support level to bring another increase.

On the upside, breach of 1.2177 level may aim for 61.8% forecast of 1.0635 to 1.2011 levels from 1.1602 at 1.2200 level next. The pair is currently signaling a short-term downside correction towards 1.2040 levels. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.2011 support zone.

Source: https://learn2.trade

Are there the best and the worst months to trade?

The first time I set my eyes on a Meta Trader platform, I doubted I would be able to master its use, since the figures and features I saw seemed daunting to me.

When I even heard about candlesticks, I didn’t know what it meant. Stupefied, I wondered whether I’d need to light some candles before I would be able to trade. Did this have to do with the environment?

That was the year 2007.

I got used to the markets and the Meta Trader, and I fell in love with them. Yes, I may be considered a pro now; but I was once a noob.

I’ve had much experience and I’ve seen the good, the bad, and the ugly in the markets. I stay in the markets days in days out, learning many things.

One important thing I learned is that there are some months of the year in which trading is easier and there are some months in which trading can be difficult. Just as the ‘sell in May and go away’ idea, yes some observations confirm repetitive patterns in the markets, and the patterns are valid.

Best and worst months?
I’ve observed that, in the months of January, February, March, and April, the markets tend to move seriously and predictably. Reversals are huge and sustained, as they form new trends. Trend continuations are more pronounced. This is also true of the months of October, November, and December. Trend-following strategies usually work well around this period.

In the months of May, June, July, August, and September, false breakouts are never a curiosity and sustained trending movements are rather rare. During these months, the markets are difficult to predict, and most traders to get suboptimal results. Mean-reversion strategies tend to work around this period.

Although there are exceptions, as this doesn’t mean there can’t be large movements anytime between May and September each year. Large movements do exist, and they often come as surprises. You can see them in historical data.

Generally, I find trading easier from October to April; I find trading difficult from May to September. What about you?

At times, this also has to do with the kind of trading system one is using.

Source: https://learn2.trade

Silver Price: Bulls Return Past $24.00 Level on XAGUSD Amid Dollar Weakness

XAGUSD Price Analysis – December 15
Silver (XAGUSD) price registers technical buying early in the European session while bulls return past the $24.00 level. The white metal is up ahead in trend amid continued dollar weakness on Tuesday as a result of an improved risk appetite.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: $27.50, $26.00, $24.50
Support Levels: $23.50, $22.83, $21.89

XAGUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
Silver (XAGUSD) moving average 13 which currently sits as support at $23.82 level has been like a solid base to the price action over the past few days, with the moving average 5 at $24.10 acting as solid resistance.

The price of XAG continues to trade well within know levels to the upside, there is decent resistance in the $24.50 region, while to the downside, the bottom of the recent range comes into play just around the $23.50 level. At present, XAGUSD is up and the bulls may attack further north is of the $24.50 level.

XAGUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
A bout of technical buying on the rebound of a short-term downtrend around the ascending trendline support at the $21.89 level from Nov 30 has continued to sustain spot silver prices in the short term frame to reclaim past the $24.00 level. Nevertheless looking at the white metal over a medium time horizon, silver still trades well within recent ranges.

Silver (XAG) is now attempting an upside breakout today and a breach of $24.50 minor resistance may usher in price to the $25.00 threshold. There is no follow-through buying yet. But sustained trading beyond the $24.00 mark should confirm that a rebound from $21.89 has been completed at the $24.86 level before another advance.


Source: https://learn2.trade

Gold Price Analysis — December 16

Gold (XAU/USD) inched lower in the early European session on Monday and has recorded a fresh daily low of around $1825. The renewed selling pressure got sponsored by the prevailing upbeat market mood as a result of the blooming optimism over the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE).

Investors’ risk mood got further bolstered by the news that the UK and the European Union have agreed to extend the post-Brexit trade talks, as both parties attempt to reach a compromise deal.

The risk-on market mood got highlighted by the leg up in the equity markets and a positive bounce in the US Treasury bond yield, which naturally undermines demand for the non-yielding metal. Furthermore, hopes for additional stimulus measures, and the prevailing bearish pressure surrounding the US dollar (DXY) failed to woo gold bulls or extend any support to the dollar-denominated commodity.

The greenback is currently languishing near a 30-month low amid fears of economic fallout from the imposition of stricter Coronavirus restrictions across several states in the US. Meanwhile, it is becoming more likely that the proposed bipartisan $908 billion COVID-19 stimulus package could be split in half to get approval by Republicans.

Moving on, traders will remain cautious around placing any aggressive bets on gold as markets anticipate the two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, which commences tomorrow. That said, it is advisable to wait for a sustained drop before placing any trades.


XAUUSD – Hourly Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — December 16

XAU/USD Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: $1850, $1865, and $1876

Demand Levels: $1823, $1815, and $1800

Gold is currently trading within a consolidation range between $1850 and $1825. A sustained break above or below this range would determine what bias the XAU/USD will likely trade on in the coming days.

However, it is very likely to see a break towards the downside, given the fundamental factors surrounding gold. That said, a sustained break below the $1800 psychological level remains unlikely at the moment.

Source: https://learn2.trade

Annual Forecast for EURUSD (2021): Anticipated Price Surge to 1.2555 Level Stays Stronger


Euro Dollar Exchange Rate – EURUSD is expected to trade at 1.22 and higher in 2021 by the end of this quarter. After COVID-19 disrupted financial markets and the global economy in 2020, the US dollar as a whole has weakened. Participants in the European foreign exchange market hope to see a return to economic growth by mid-2021.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.4940, 1.3993, 1.2554
Support Levels: 1.1602, 1.0635, 1.0340
EURUSD Monthly Chart: Ranging
EURUSD has maintained its bearish trend since it touched the barrier at 1.2554. Since then, the pair has traded lower and the pair reached a multi-year low at 1.0635. After recovering, the pair gained enough momentum to confirm a bullish breakout.

The next logical target is at 1.2554, and additional gains beyond that level would signal a long-term bullish continuation. If the bulls manage to push the pair over the barrier, the next in line will be the 1.2750 price zone, as the pair has several monthly lows around it.
EURUSD Weekly Chart: Bullish
The uptrend of EURUSD has reached the level of 1.2272. The further rally should be considered to 61.8% of the 1.0635 forecasts by 1.2011 from 1.1602 to 1.2452 further. On the other hand, a break of 1.2058 support is needed to mark a short-term peak. From a technical point of view, the pair has so far managed to defend the support on the weekly chart, which is now in the 1.2175-70 region.

Starting in 2021, the gain from 1.0635 is seen as the third phase of the trend from 1.0339 (low). Further rally can be seen towards cluster resistance at 1.2555, mostly in early 2021 (38.2% retracement from 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This may remain the preferred scenario as long as the 1.1602 support remains.

Conclusion
EURUSD is recovering, but it could still be a corrective rally towards 1.3000. The idea is to see limited upside potential in 2021, however, the near-term situation supports the outlook for an extension of recent appreciation. Meanwhile, sentiment also continues to be fueled by expectations of a deal to boost the U.S. economy and the availability of a coronavirus vaccine.

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Annual Forecast for GBPUSD (2021): After Plunge to Historic Lows GBPUSD to Further Recover


GBPUSD hit an all-time low of 1.1409 in early March 2020 in response to the coronavirus crisis. Although the pair hit a 35-year low, the pair rebounded and continued to rally amid Brexit hopes, reaching a new 2020 high of 1.3554. The risk remains heightened as long as there is hope for Brexit.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.4345, 1.4000, 1.3624
Support Levels: 1.3134, 1.2675, 1.1958
GBPUSD Monthly Chart: Ranging
GBPUSD rallied from March lows at 1.1409 to prove its resilience. Monthly technical data favors further recovery as price bounced off its moving average of 5 while the RSI consolidates towards 60.

Moving average 13 acts as a reliable support in the event of a decline, both below the current level, and in the event of a bullish expansion. The risk remains biased upward as long as the price remains above 1.3000. Confirmation of the fall in GBPUSD will be a breakdown of the support area and the closing price below 1.3000.
GBPUSD Weekly Chart: Ranging
GBPUSD rose from 1.2675 last week to hit 1.3624. But since a temporary top has formed there, the initial bias is neutral initially this week. On the other hand, a break of 1.3624 will target the 61.8% forecast of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 to 1.4345 next. In such a scenario, the short-term trend remains bullish as long as support at 1.3134 is held, in case of a deeper pullback.

A decisive breakout should also occur on sustained trading above the 5 and 13 moving averages. This should confirm the mid-term bottom at 1.1409. The trend can then be reversed to bullish up to the resistance level of 1.4345 and above. However, the 1.3514 deviations could keep the medium-term bearish sentiment for another decline below 1.1409 in the next phase.

Conclusion
GBPUSD may end the trading week outside the 1.3624 zones. The pair continues to move within the framework of growth and the formation of an upward recovery pattern. Moving averages indicate a bullish trend. t the moment, we should expect an attempt to grow and test the resistance area near the level of 1.4000.


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Silver Price: XAGUSD in a Run Towards $27.50 As the Dollar Becomes Weaker


XAGUSD Price Analysis – January 6

Spot silver (XAGUSD) is looking to break the $27.50 level as the white metal breaks out of its recent high of $26.77 during Monday’s early European session. Overall, the market remains patchy, but the dollar as a whole is weakening as markets wait to see what happens with US fiscal stimulus and Georgia’s run-off on January 5.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: $30.00, $28.90, $27.50
Support Levels: $26.00, $24.50, $23.50

XAGUSD Long term Trend: Bullish
XAGUSD price has convincingly broken to the upside of its range and the main resistance level to watch out for is the $27.50 that has capped its upside since 15th September. To the downside, the previous top of the old December range at around $24.86 level ought to offer immediate support, in case of an unexpected decline.

Alternately, if the $27.50 level gives way then silver prices could be looking towards posting further gains in the medium to long term. Price action has been broadly consolidating near the $26.00 levels over the past few sessions. If it does break above, a gradual move towards the mid-September highs above the $27.50 level will be likely.

XAGUSD Short term Trend: Bullish
As seen on the 4-hour chart, silver appears to be launching toward a major technical barrier at the $27.50 level. In the event, the barrier holds intact XAGUSD is likely to gain support from 4 hours moving an average of 13 near the $26.77 level and return to extend gains against the US Dollar in the short term.

A possible upside target is the upside range at $28.90 and $30.00 levels, in the meantime, it is unlikely that bears could prevail in the market. That said, a sustained break below will be seen as the first signs of bullish exhaustion and turn the pair vulnerable to fall further towards challenging the key $24.50 psychological mark.

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Gold Price Analysis — January 6

Gold (XAU/USD) traded on a sideways pattern in the early European session on Tuesday, as the commodity struggled to capitalize on its bullish momentum from the previous two sessions.

It appears that the market has begun pricing in the possibility of a Democratic win in the crucial US Senate runoff elections in Georgia. The final election results will not be out until the end of today, albeit with the increasing likelihood of a Democrat-controlled Senate.

A Democrat-controlled senate will give President Joe Biden easier access to his preferred economic policies, including additional—and possibly larger—stimulus measures and infrastructure projects. This possibility has caused the US dollar (DXY) to come under immense pressure, thereby extending further support to the dollar-denominated commodity. Also, the prospects of stricter regulations for large tech companies—and the industry as a whole—caused the Nasdaq futures to slide by nearly 2%, which bolstered gold even further.

Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose beyond 1% for the first time since March on the expectations of larger government borrowing. This rise is probably the only factor capping gains for the non-yielding metal. Also, investors are hesitant to place any aggressive bets ahead of the FOMC minutes scheduled for later today.

In the meantime, the greenback’s price dynamics and the broader market risk sentiment will provide trading opportunities for the precious metal.


XAUUSD – 4-Hour Chart
Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — January 6

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: $1950, $1965, and $1980

Demand Levels: $1920, $1907, and $1900

At press time, gold appears to be stalling near the top of our ascending channel as bullish momentum dwindles. That said, we expect a sharp price correction in the near-term to the lower-$1900 area.

Our 4-hour MACD indicator pronounces the impending correction even better, as the commodity retreats from overbought territories.

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Litecoin (LTC) Resumes Upward Move as Bulls Buy the Dips

Key Highlights
Litecoin slumps to $121 low and resumes upward
The altcoin will further decline to $73 if the support at $120 cracks

Litecoin (LTC) Current Statistics
The current price: $144.63
Market Capitalization: $9,613,048,370
Trading Volume: $12,189,426,086
Major supply zones: $120, $140, $160
Major demand zones: $90, $70, $50

Litecoin (LTC) Price Analysis January 12, 2021
Litecoin has fallen to $120 low as the coin resumed its upward move. The crypto has fallen into the previous range bound zone of $120 and $140. LTC will retest the $180 resistance if the bulls clear the $140 and $170 minor resistance levels. On January 10, Litecoin was repelled as the bulls attempt to break the $180 resistance level. Meanwhile, the crypto has resumed upside momentum as the market reaches the high of $146.


LTC/USD – Daily Chart
Litecoin (LTC) Technical Indicators Reading
After the breakdown, the LTC price broke above the SMAs which suggested an upward movement of the coin. The crypto is at level 51 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. It indicates that there is a balance between supply and demand.


LTC/USD – 4 Hour Chart

Conclusion
Litecoin has fallen to $120 low as the current support holds. This has propelled the price to rise on the upside. However, if the $120 support fails to hold, the Fibonacci tool price prediction will hold. On January 11 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 61.8%Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that the crypto will reach level 1.618 Fibonacci extensions or the high of $67.40.

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XRPUSD Is Ranging Within $0.28 and $0.21 Levels, Awaiting a Breakout

XRP/USD Market January 06
An increase in the bears’ pressure may penetrate the $0.21 level; the price may decrease further to $0.17 and $0.10. In case the support level of $0.21 holds, the price may reverse and the resistance levels of $0.28, $0.39, and $0.49 may be tested.

Key Levels:
Resistance levels: $0.28, $0.39, $0.49

Support levels: $0.21, $0.17, $0.10

XRP/USD Long-term Trend: Ranging
XRPUSD is on the ranging mode in the daily chart. The coin is range-bound within the resistance level of $0.28 and the support level of $0.21. XRPUSD started the ranging movement on December 30. The bears made an attempt to break down the support level of $0.21 failed due to low bearish momentum. Today, the bears try to penetrate the resistance level of $0.28 but the level holds and the price could not break it up. Ranging movement will continue until there is a breakout.


XRPUSD Daily chart, January 06
XRPUSD is struggling to breakout at the two key levels but the levels hold the price. An increase in the bears’ pressure may penetrate the $0.21 level; the price may decrease further to $0.17 and $0.10. In case the support level of $0.21 holds, the price may reverse and the resistance levels of $0.28, $0.39, and $0.49 may be tested. However, the price retains its trading below 9 periods EMA and the 21 periods EMA, the former is below the later. The relative strength index period 14 is at 25 levels bending up to indicate a buy signal.

XRP/USD Medium-term Trend: Ranging
On the medium-term outlook, XRPUSD remains in the ranging mode. The bears’ momentum and the bulls’ momentum are at equilibrium within the $0.28 and $0.21 levels. The support level of $0.21 is resisting the bears. The bears lose their momentum and the bulls’ pressure is equally weak. The price results in consolidation within $0.28 and $0.21 price levels.


XRPUSD 4 hour chart, January 06
The fast-moving average is interlocked with the slow-moving average. The price is hovering over the 9 periods EMA and 21 periods EMA which indicates that consolidation is ongoing. However, the relative strength index period 14 is bending up at 60 levels to indicate a buy signal.


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GBPJPY Attempts Upside Advance Beyond 142.33 Level on UK’s Vaccine Rollout Optimism

GBPJPY Price Analysis – January 20

GBPJPY’s upside march attempts to advance beyond the 142.33 level with a strong impulse to test the higher barrier at
142.71 level. The optimism about the UK’s vaccine campaign and lower cases is strengthening the case for stability in Pounds Sterling.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 147.95, 144.95, 142.71
Support Levels: 140.31, 137.00, 134.40
GBPJPY Long term Trend: Bullish
The GBPJPY pair has already rebounded from the weekly low of 140.35 to 142.33 levels as of today’s session and may lift further. Nonetheless, the horizontal resistance level currently around 142.26, followed by the 142.71 thresholds, challenges the GBPJPY bulls. However, bears are less likely to enter unless witnessing a clear breach beneath the moving average 13 around 141.00 level.

In the larger context, the increase from the 123.99 level is seen as an advancing phase of the sideway range trend from the 122.75 (low) level. As long as the 147.95 resistance level holds, an eventual downside breakout stays in consideration. Nevertheless, the eventual breach of 147.95 may increase the likelihood of long term bullish reversal.

GBPJPY Short term Trend: Bullish
GBPJPY edged higher to 142.25 level last week but upside traction has been very unconvincing. Meanwhile, a sustained increase is mildly in support as long as the 140.31 support level stays intact. The present recovery from 133.04 level may aim for a test on 142.71 high level.

On the downside, however, the breach of 138.00 level may argue that the trend from 142.71 level is starting another falling phase. Intraday bias may be altered back to the downside for 134.40 support level and beneath.

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USD/CAD Is in an Oversold Region as Buyers Are Likely to Emerge

Key Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4400, 1.4600
Key Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3200, 1.3000

USD/CAD Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
The Loonie is likely to continue its downward move. The recent upward move has been repelled by the 21-day SMA. Presently, the pair is falling and has fallen to the low of 1.2690. The loonie may reach the low of 1.2620.


USD/CAD – Daily Chart
Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 50-day and the 21-day SMAs are sloping downward indicating the downtrend. The Loonie has fallen to level 43 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. It is below the centerline 50. A further downward move is likely.

USD/CAD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the pair fell as the uptrend reaches the high of 1.2799. In the last 48 hours, the downward move has persisted. The overall trend has been bearish. The pair may resume upward if the price falls and reaches the low of 1.2620.


USD/CAD – 4 Hour Chart
4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
Presently, the SMAs are sloping northward indicating the uptrend. The Loonie has fallen below the 20% range of the daily stochastic. It is in a bearish momentum. The pair is still in the oversold region of the market. Buyers are likely to emerge.

General Outlook for USD/CAD
The USD/CAD is likely to continue its downward move as price faces rejection at the recent high. The price sometimes fluctuates as the market continues its downward move. In the previous price action, the pair fell and rebounded above 1.2650 on January 14.

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Gold Price Analysis — January 27

No Commentson Gold Price Analysis — January 27
Gold (XAU/USD) maintained its bearish tone through the early European session on Wednesday and was last spotted trading around the $1845 area. The bearish momentum was solely sponsored by a goodish uptick in the US dollar, which tends to undermine demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.

The greenback saw a fresh influx of demand amid doubts over the timing and size of the newly proposed US stimulus bill. That said, the prevalent cautious mood surrounding the equity markets has capped further declines for the precious metal in the meantime.

Market mood is currently being suppressed by the growing worries over an economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and the escalating US-China tensions in the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, the lower risk appetite bolstered a softer tone around the US Treasury bond yields, which extended additional support to the non-yielding metal. Also, market participants appear to be avoiding placing aggressive bets ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision scheduled for release later today. This event, coupled with the release of US Durable Goods Orders data and developments surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, will be looked upon for market clues today.

This makes it advisable to wait for a sustained move to the downside before placing aggressive bets.


XAUUSD – Hourly Chart
Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — January 27

XAU/USD Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: $1860, $1875, and $1890

Demand Levels: $1838, $1827, and $1818

Gold has traded on a directionless bias over the past few days, following several failed attempts to reclaim dominance above the $1875 pivot area. However, the safe-haven asset has also fought against a sustained descent below the $1838 support, putting it in a consolidated range.

Depending on the outcome of the FOMC meeting later today, gold could finally breach the $1838 support and head towards lower support levels.


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Dogecoin Price Analysis — February 5

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) saw an overnight rally of about 80%, indicating that Wall Street Bet’s crypto division still has plans for the cryptocurrency. Dogecoin came into the limelight following a 900% pump on January 28, which catapulted the meme cryptocurrency to rank as the tenth-largest cryptocurrency based on market capitalization for the first time since 2015.

As the massive rally began to lose momentum, many traders rapidly cleared their profits, as it looks like the investors are now looking for something else to invest in.

The spike was originally sparked when exchanges restricted traders from acquiring more AMC and GameStop stocks on January 28, prompting the Reddit investors to seek other investment alternatives like silver and some “cheap” cryptocurrencies.

On January 28, the Twitter user “WSB Chairman” tweeted to his 750k followers, saying “has Doge ever been to a dollar?” This question sparked a massive rally in DOGE, despite the crypto having no protocol upgrades since 2015.

Several social media influencers were very discontent with buying the top of the rally, indicating that the speculative frenzy has ended.

It is almost impossible to pinpoint the exact reason for the spikes, considering that there are several social networks, especially private Telegram groups and trading signal apps, actively participating in the price action.

That said, measuring social media activities could become the norm for speculation.


DOGEUSD – 4-Hour Chart

Key DOGE Levels to Watch — February 5

DOGE/USD appears to have gone into consolidation between $0.0450 and $0.0350, as its bullish momentum loses steam. The cryptocurrency’s recent price action has formed a triangle pattern, indicating that a spike (to either direction) is just around the corner.

That said, we expect a retrace to the $0.350 supporting the coming hours, where a rebound to the $0.0500 round figure and higher will likely occur.

Meanwhile, our key resistance levels are at $0.0450, $0.0500, and $0.0600. While our key support levels are at $0.0350, $0.0270, and $0.0220.

Total Market Capitalization: $1 trillion

Dogecoin Market Capitalization: $4.7 billion

Dogecoin Dominance: 0.47%

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AUDUSD Upside Run Holds Steady Past Mid 0.7700 Level As Risk-On Mood Undermines USD

AUDUSD Price Analysis – February 11
After it rebound from the prior week low at 0.7563 level, the AUDUSD pair has benefited from a sustained move past the MA 5 and 13 at the 0.7700 regions. The pair’s upside run continues to hold steady past the mid 0.7700 level as the underlying bias of a risk-on mood undermines the US dollar.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.8075, 0.7980, 0.7800
Support Levels: 0.7650, 0.7557, 0.7461
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
The AUDUSD pair regained bullish traction on Thursday and reversed the prior day’s modest losses. The constructive outlook is reinforced by the bullish relative strength index on the daily charts. That said, bulls might still need to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the swing highs, around the mid 0.7700 regions, before placing new buy orders.

Above the mentioned hurdle, the AUDUSD pair seems all set to build on its recent appreciating move and aim back to reclaim the 0.7800 marks. On the[b] flip side, the 0.7650 regions might continue to act as immediate support and are closely followed by the 0.7700 marks. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some technical selling and accelerate the slide further towards the 0.7557 horizontal support.

AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging[/b]
As observed on the lower time frame, following the 0.7650 minor support intact, a sustained surge is anticipated in AUDUSD for 0.7800 resistance level. The continuous breach there may continue the total uptrend from 0.5506 level.

Meanwhile, the next near term goal is a 61.8% forecast of 0.7000 to 0.7800 levels from 0.7557 at 0.8075 levels. On the flip side, the breach of 0.7650 minor support level may delay the bullish scenario and extend the correction from 0.7800 level.

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An important factor that determines your profitability (it’s not what you think)

When traders are looking for ways to become consistently profitable, they, sadly, tend to consider the wrong factors and looking for solutions in the wrong places. Yes, factors like hit rates, risk-to-reward ratios, risk control, etc. are very important to your career as a trader. Nonetheless, there is an important factor that determines your profitability, and it’s not what you think.

Know when not to trade
Yes, you need to know when to be in the markets and when to stay out of the markets. There are times when it is profitable to be in certain markets, and there are times when it is suicidal to be in such markets.
For example, it is far easier to make money in bullish crypto markets, especially when Bitcoin and most other altcoins are trending upwards protractedly. During this period, traders and investors are richly rewarded.

But when Bitcoin and other altcoins begin a bearish movement that holds out longer than what most people anticipate, both traders and investors suffer, as profitability dwindles. An apt example is what happened in 2018.

When FX markets are trending strongly, all counter-trend strategies will perform poorly. When the markets are quite choppy, trend-following strategies will fail. That is why you need to understand the kind of trading system you are using and the market type you are currently engaged in.

There is no strategy that can work in all market conditions: You either develop different strategies to deal with a bull market, consolidating markets, etc. If you cannot do this, then you need to stay out of the market which is not favorable to your trading system. An impatient trader can be sliced up in the market that threatens to plummet, but which fails to do so.

You don’t need to be in a particular market always
Some people think trading is hard, and they are somewhat correct because no-one knows what the market will do next. You may think it will go in a certain direction and you will be right. Sometimes, you may think it would go in a particular direction and you will be proven wrong.
Know when to trade and when not to trade. Your profitability is largely determined by how many losses you are able to avoid. Did you sustain some losses in the past? Think of how profitable you would be now if you had been able to avoid those losses.

Think of it: The more losses you have, the more your equity goes down. If you were able to avoid those losses, your equity would be saved from going down. Even when your hit rate is not very high, you will be able to go ahead by avoiding more and more losses.

There are many factors that determine a great football team, and one of the factors is the ability to concede very few goals. The fewer goals a team concedes, the better their chances of survival. The more goals they concede, the worse their chances of survival.

When a team is too desperate to win, they may charge and attack vigorously, while their defense becomes porous and vulnerable, and the opposing team may take advantage of that vulnerability.

You shouldn’t be too desperate to make profits, to the extent that you constantly find yourself in unfavorable market conditions and you take more sub-optimal trades based on poor setups, therefore scuttling your chances of profitability.

I have found ways to know when a particular market condition is favorable to my trading methodology and I take advantage of that. I have found ways to know when a market is no longer favorable to my trading method and I stay out of the market while looking for opportunities elsewhere.

What about you?

This piece is ended by the quote below:

“… If there was a game that mimicked trading it would be golf. A golf game is won by the person who makes the fewest catastrophic error and whose management of their internal game is superior to others. Incremental gains count.” – C. Tate

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