I haven't written anything political in recent times, especially international politics, diplomacy and foreign relations. I know how people could easily be put off by politics, and I was particularly put off too for a while, opting to simply mope at everything politics, and finding pleasure with the apolitical, both locally, nationally, continentally, and internationally. It did seem there was no way something of the magnitude of the assassination of a Major General in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and, from 1998 until his death, commander of its Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani, could pass without me saying a thing or two. Indeed, my recent posts on social media seems to have done justice to the subject, but the hunger to have my thoughts articulated on the subject in more words than microblogging sites could allow became all the more compelling with each new passing day.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hApKcYbTB70


Following the incidents in the Straits of Hormuz where an American tanker was hit, and the President Donald Trump expressed outrage, blaming the Iranian government even when findings were yet to be concluded as to the perpetrators of the dastardly act, it was reminiscent of what was obtainable in the days when America was spoiling for war against any country of their choice. Attacks on American personnel (and embassy in Iraq) which came to a head with the killing recently of an American contractor, meant that the Americans were going to respond in some way or the other, if they were going to be taken serious. I remember how America's influence in Syria waned, after President Barrack Obama failed to live up to his threats following President Assad's crossing of the formers so called "RED LINE", which heralded Russia's omnipotent influence in that side of the middle east. Watchers of the events preceding this epoch making one could tell that America's leadership had had it up to here with Iran's shenanigans, and the revelations that the latest American strike was one of the options,


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vSR1SzGXl4

howbeit extreme, were not surprised at the action taken by the Trump administration against Iran, considering that he isn't one for half measures, and who had since the strike continued to engage in verbal, or twitter outbursts in superlatives, of what will happen to those who oppose America's might.


Some have said that had the Americans not hit Soleimani, the Israelis would've, but I strongly doubt that. Not because the Israelis are scared of the Iranians, but they'll rather not take such a direct and drastic approach in dealing with an ever present Iranian threat. Sabotage of Iranian operations seem more like what the Israelis will get their hands to, rather than showing their hands the way Trump has now done, leaving the Iranians no choice but to cower or move beyond merely expressing disgust to declaring war against the United States (even placing a bounty on President Trump's head), it's people and assets mostly in the middle east, like it seems to have started with the current rocket attacks on two American military bases in Iraq. Interestingly, Iranians who just a few weeks back were on the streets protesting against their government, appear to have become united with their leaders following the assassination of Soleimani, so much so that in their anguish some have died, others injured in stampede at processions during his funeral, for which his burial have now been delayed. Such is the pain with which the death of this Iranian leader is been greeted in Iran, that even the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was in tears during the funeral, something that is rarely seen.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cju1QkMIqjk

The anger on both sides of the divide, including of proxies of Iran worldwide, who have called on their members and supporters to avenge the death of Soleimani, with protests rocking countries with sizeable Shia population, from Lebanon (with Hezbollah leader issuing threats, carried the entire length live on Al-Jazeera) to Nigeria (where though the Shia have been suffering some level of persecution, with their leader, Sheik El-Zakzaky incarcerated, have had their procession described by pro-government press, not as that by Shia as they would, to justify crackdown by security agents, but as "Muslim Groups", to make it seem as if it's the Muslim Ummah that had risen in protest, against the American action), have left many wondering if this isn't setting the grounds for the much anticipated "mother of all wars", of which the buzz on social media have been an eerie delight to watch in recent days.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjI1M6NhJvU

But I get the feeling that there'll be no war. That this escalation between Iran and the United States, occasioned by the events of January 2 will only lead to a flexing of muscles. Iran's leaders know their military prowess is no match for the Americans, even if they garner help from countries such as Russia or China (who aren't really all about meeting America on the war front). Symmetrical warfare being a no-no, asymmetrical warfare remain the only option for the Iranians, mainly through proxies hitting at military personnel, civilians and American assets in the middle east and elsewhere, hence the travel alerts and advisories, by the American government even for Americans in countries like Nigeria. What the Iranians will get out of this, is what they have already done, by withdrawing from the agreement to not pursue military grade nuclear enrichments and advancements. They will not likely be putting that as part of the items of negotiations when the time comes, as it surely would, to parley with the Americans, especially following the outcome of meetings currently holding amongst European powers, and several backdoor channels, that I'm think are now being explored by American and Iranian diplomats.


Another reason why there will not be war is because the American Congress will not sign off on it, because they will see a war against Iran as a political tool by President Trump to win reelection, something the latter alluded to in 2011, as what then President Obama would do to win reelection. This coming on the heels of the


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmdkFytGyFY

snubbery suffered by democrat house and senate leaders, who were all but shut out from the decision and eventual execution of the Iranian top general, and had in recent times (along with Democrat Presidential hopefuls) condemned Trumps' action, as not well thought out, even while acknowledging the fact that Soleimani posed a threat to America's interest in the middle east. So, while Trump was riding on the wave of the successful assassination of Soleimani, and engaging in all types of vitriol on twitter and on campaign trails, the Democrat controlled Congress have rushed to remind him that the power to approve the bill to take American soldiers to war, resides with them, as much as it is not a unilateral decision, howbeit by a willing and pro-war President, backed by hawkish advisers or not (like the ones that were shocked that the President opted for the most extreme of the options presented to him).


The middle east is such a crazy place, and I thought Trump was doing a great job, trying to stay away from it, until this escalation. Iran is a strange puzzle in the mix, which is why they've been able to carry on this far without let. It is because of Iran, that the Saudis and Israelis can unofficially eat from the same plate, hence when Iranians protest with banners declaring "death to Israel", "death to the Zionists" or "death to America", it is also subtly to Saudi Arabia that they refer, but will not openly do so, because the Saudis are custodians of the holiest site in Islam, amongst others. Iranians are not Arabs, but Persians with a brand of Islam, Shia that some amongst the majority Sunni may even describe as been below other "people of the book". Sadly, no matter what the Americans do to please Iraqis, the allegiance of the majority of Iraqis will be to Iran, seeing as it is a majority Shia country, which is why the killing of Soleimani will only bring about the rise of another to oversee any regime in power in Iraq, and with Americans there (without any plans of leaving anytime soon) the friction will continue to be there, and in other countries in the middle east and elsewhere, where the Saudis and Iranians have an interest in pursuing their agenda. Abeg, make I go sleep, work dey for morning!


'kovich



PICTURE CREDIT:
- https://www.lindaikejisblog.com




POST SOLEIMANI ASSASSINATION https://madukovich./2020/01/08/post-soleimani-assassination/

War is never a good thing...

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