As the first case of the Wuhan coronavirus was reported in the United States on Tuesday, UBS said the outbreak, if not contained, could weigh on retail sales, tourism and travel in China in the first quarter and the early second quarter of this year.

The Swiss bank said it could present some downside risk to its economic growth forecast for the mainland, but it would expect Beijing to engage in additional policy easing to offset any shock from the virus, particularly to affected sectors, such as hotels and tourist-related businesses. Measures are likely to include the People’s Bank of China keeping interbank liquidity “ample” and guiding down market interest rates in that scenario.

“History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. More importantly, China has learnt lessons from Sars. The government is now working much more proactively and transparently to contain the Wuhan pneumonia than [it did with] Sars, and China’s public health system is now more experienced than before as well,” Wang Tao, head of Asia economic research and chief China economist in UBS’s investment bank, wrote in a research note on Wednesday.

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