From all indications, Southern Nigeria's only chance of winning would be tied to the South West withdrawing from the race and supporting the Niger Delta or the South East.

Other than that the other regions would likely back a Northern candidate and that will mean 12 or 16 straight years of Northern rule.

The other regions feel the South West has never been committed to "Southern solidarity " except when they benefit.

This was evident when Tinubu led a Southern governors forum in 2002/2003 in his bid to shore up support for his kinsman, Obasanjo.

Other Southerners didn't enjoy similar privileges even when they performed better than their predecessors.

The South West is the only region that can break the political deadlock in the South but it will entail being selfless. Putting the overall interest of the South above that of the South West.

Time will tell if that could be achieved.