Over the last couple of weeks, Nigeria has experienced it's first case of corona virus in Nigeria and has been battling it's severity since then.

Through this period, Nigeria can be said to be slowing winning the war against the epidemic (yes, I call it epidemic because what we are experiencing here in Nigeria and probably Africa in terms of the virus is quite different from what other parts of the world is experiencing).

Looking at stories we've read and seen around the world on this virus, the future really looked bleak for Nigeria considering our healthcare system and level of preparedness after we recorded the first case on the 27th of February 2020. Fortunately for the country, the positive or not so bad out turn of events after almost 6weeks of the first case have left many doubtful on the claim that the corona virus is active in Nigeria.

This led to my study of the trend in Nigeria and coming up with the following postulates of which I believe one out of these postulates must be true.

*Note:* These are mere postulates with no scientific backup and were only derived from the study of the behavioral trend of the virus in Nigeria.


1. A less aggressive

strain of the virus is present Nigeria:

Looking at the very low and almost non-existent complexities (like severe breathing difficulties) and the death rate from the cases recorded in Nigeria as compared to other parts of the world. One can be made to believe we have a less viral strain in the country.

According to Reuters { https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN20R07Z }

[/b]" The preliminary study found that a more aggressive strain of the new coronavirus associated with the outbreak in Wuhan accounted for about 70% of analyzed cases, while 30% were linked to a less aggressive type.
The prevalence of the more aggressive virus type decreased after early January 2020, they said. "

From this report, there is a possibility that the minimal complication and low mortality rate of the virus in Nigeria is as a result of the presence of a less aggressive strain. This can explain why we haven't seen people dying on the streets or at home at an abnormal rate.


However, this postulation might not be totally acceptable simply because not only Nigeria but Africa in general has minimal complications from the virus also.

Could it be possible that only the less aggressive strain is finding its way to Africa?


2. The weather condition of Africa is responsible for the minimal complications

The limitation of postulation 1 above gives rise to postulation 2.

According to the Q & A on corona viruses by WHO, {https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses}

" Studies suggest that coronaviruses (including preliminary information on the COVID-19 virus) may persist on surfaces for a few hours or up to several days. This may vary under different conditions (e.g. type of surface, temperature or humidity of the environment)."

This shows that the hot temperature in Africa might lessen the time the virus persist on surfaces and in turn lead to lesser transmission of the virus. This can explain why Nigeria and Africa in general have recorded few cases of the virus and low mortality rate.

3. Strong immune system of blacks?

This is a less unlikely postulate but considering how Africans have normalised malaria and other sickness which might be fatal to the whites, one might take this on a second thought.

However, the limitation of this is that African migrants abroad are not spared in the fatality of this virus over there and there is also a claim that African - Americans constitute 70% of corona virus death in the US according to BBC (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-52194018)

This can only mean the strong immune system of the black race might not be a stumbling block to the novel Covid-19.
This gives more credence to 1 and 2 above.


Italy recorded it's first case of Covid 19 on January 31st, one month after she recorded about 8000 deaths and 2 months after about 18,000 deaths.

US also recorded it's first case on January 15th and 2 months after, the death rate is between 16,000 to 18,000 though many deaths are said to not be reported.

Nigeria on the hand recorded it's first case on February 27 and almost a month and half after, there are lesser than 10 deaths. Readers would agree with me that these records doesn't tally and something must be responsible.

It is definitely not government efforts in curtailing it or good health care system or prayers of our clerics but a natural event which might be due to one of the the 3 postulates above.

The high recovery rate is also a very positive indication as about 18% of registered cases have recovered fully and tested negative twice

I urge the NCDC and Lagos State governmebt to publicly announce it's treatment procedure for the recovered patient so others can follow.
It's obvious we don't have a much similar problem as the outside world, our method of approach in curtailing the problem should not also be exactly similar.

I'll advise the government to again publicly announce it's treatment procedure which seems to be working fine ( if what they have been feeding us is true) so others can follow at home as there are many roaming the streets who have the virus but are asymptomatic and many never get tested and as such act as carriers of the virus.

This may not be too safe medically but it will be a good approach.

In conclusion, the total lockdown of the top states in the country has not been effective enough as it was not and can not be fully enforced and in reality palliative measures won't get round especially to those that need it.
Therefore, in addition of publicly announcing treatment procedure, the lockdown should be called off after one week extension and stringent policies should be put in place to ensure everyone complies with preventive measures.


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Olaboye33@gmail.com

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