COVID -19 LEADS or LAGS BEHINDE the WORLD?

As the globe is presently experiencing this pandemic of Coronavirus disease, COVID -19, how world leaders plan cannot be divorced from forecast, for what is feasible depends to a large extent on happenings in the external world. We do know COVID-19 is transmitted from animals to people, with this particular strain of Coronavirus thought to have originated from a seafood market in the city of Wuhan, China, late December,2019, but we do not know the aftermath effects on the globe. Symptoms of COVID-19 resemble that of the common cold, with those infected often experiencing fever, cough, and shortness of breath. However, infections can lead to pneumonia, multi-organ failure, severe acute respiratory syndrome, and even death, in severe cases, the elderly and those with preexisting chronic health conditions have accounted for the majority of deaths from COVID-19. There had been cases of the disease in around 210 countries, as at May,3,2020. China was initially the country most impacted by the disease, however the United States, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, had the most cases worldwide. Many countries around the world are enforcing lockdown to try to slow down the spread of the virus. Such measures and restrictions vary from country to country but usually involve closing down borders, cancelling of public events, encouraging people to work from their homes and closing down the economy.

With the contingency of COVID-19 in the world environment having a major effect on the extent to which world leaders’ goals may be at all feasible, the actual planning by world leaders should start with goal setting. This is what I shall call FORECASTING. Forecasting should not be as simple as extrapolation – projecting the trends of past behaviour of the COVID-19 into the future, because in this simple form of forecasting, no account of the world business cycle or of other contingencies to which the world government may be subject to will be taken. Forecasting should be addressed in its broad sense – a long-term forecasting that persists over a number of years. Population growth of the majority poor, for instance, will increase for some years, even though the yearly increments have not been as large as they were expected some years back.

The world needs some sort of forecasts :

One that is not, of course, possible to predict world business cycles and activities with absolute accuracy, but can guarantee signs of coming change in the level of economic happenings, so that it will be possible to make an informed decision. The effects of the COVID-19 on the world economy will certainly cause a long depression that should foreshadow in readily available statistics months in advance. The business community and the public at large must be willing to accept the idea that the economy could not keep on rising indefinitely to make the disaster appear not so sudden and not so unpredictable.

What new vaccines are probable, and when are they likely to come on the market for consumption? Before we provide an answer to this question, we must acknowledge the fact that new developments have a tendency to reduce the market worth of other products greatly. Multiple Organisations around the world are currently working on COVID-19 vaccine, but it is difficult to tell just how long it will take until one is available to the public. Until then, the World Health Organisation, WHO, has encouraged those living in regions with infections to take basic precautionary measures including washing of hands , covering the mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, etc. In an effort to determine the likelihood of a scientific and technological breakthrough in developing the COVID-19 vaccines and the date when they will probably occur, a systematic pooling of the opinions of experts should be launched. There could be a first round , where the experts are asked to provide anonymously dates when the various developments of the COVID-19 vaccine will occur. Following this, each expert gets a composite of the predictions of the others and has the opportunity to modify his own prediction, should there arise any needs. This could be followed by other rounds, with responses and feedbacks so that the experts may change their opinions again in the light of what others think. Eventually,a large proportion of the experts will reach some sort of consensus, even though not everyone will eventually agree , no matter how many rounds there are. Let me make it a point to mention that this type of forecast, call it technological, if you so please, is very difficult at the best because there are often sudden breakthroughs that even those knowledgeable in the field do not realize are on the horizon. May I also make it a point to mention that it was not a chance occurrence that gave rise to the discovery of many vaccines.

How about forecasting the changes in public opinion and taste, especially as it concerns the anticipated COVID-19 vaccines? Can the changes in public opinions be foreshadow in advance, and can one forecast changes in public taste to the anticipated COVID-19 vaccines? In other words, if the current absence of potent COVID-19 vaccine continues and becomes worse, to the extent that it results in greater Coronavurus infections, deaths from COVID-19, unemployment, will people prefer jobs to healthy existence? Let me say that settlements and communities that will prefer jobs to healthy existence may not be typical of a nation as a whole. Anti – healthy existence legislation should become stricter rather than looser.