The reason direct primary was opted for in Edo state is to oust Gov Obaseki. The process was marred with irregularities. Example, the state chapter will write to NWC on the mode of primary they want. The NWC will then write INEC. If the two(State chapter and NWC) didn’t agree, the NEC will come in. In Edo, these processes were breached, resulting in NWC being alone in the whole matter. Gov Obaseki started enjoying sympathy from NEC, some members of NWC and some party faithfuls.
But why did the screening committee disqualified Obaseki? Is he no more unpopular, that direct primary will oust him?
The answers to these questions will give us clear view of who is in pole position to win Edo gubernatorial election. And without mincing words; Gov Obaseki is in pole position to win.
The sign are clear that Adams’ camp has been divided because Ize Iyamu is not well accepted across board. You will remember that he was adopted as the sole aspirant by Oshiomole’s camp, but in a twist of events, those that stepped down for him rushed to pick forms. So don’t even be surprised if Ize Iyamu fails to get the ticket. If APC had gone ahead to use direct primary, two things would’ve happened.
1. Either Obaseki wins
2. He loses then goes to court to void the process.
In fact, number 2 is the main reason why he was disqualified. Already, there is a case in court again the direct primary and the Edo state law which was passed last week, gives life to the case. I don’t want to quote constitution but just know that there was no way APC would have done that direct primary without breaking the state law which the court will expressly address.
So that was why they have disqualify him to give way for INDIRECT PRIMARY. Yes you heard here first. Because Obaseki will win indirect primary if he was to contest. Can you see how Obaseki boxed Oshiomole to corner? Don’t underrate the power of an incumbent governor.
What will Obaseki do?
Since APC has shown him the ground they will use to drag him to court, and O’level is allowed in elections like this, to be on the safer side, he should submit his O’level certificate. In fact, I heard a PDP Senator saying that they will accept Obaseki’s SSC. What they will do is to campaign on UI endorsed certificates to win intellectuals over, but submit O’level to forestall litigation.
The odds favor him. He is running on sentiment and the maxim, ‘enemy of my enemy is my friend’ will play out. All those APC bigwigs who are fighting to survive may use this election to launch a comeback. People like Former Chairman Oyegun, Amaechi, Akeredolu, el Rufai, former Zamfara governor etc.
Also geographically, Igbinedion, Obaseki and Ize Iyamu are from Benin axis. Oshiomole is from Esan axis. It’s only Osunbor who didn’t last up to 2 years that comes from South. If Obaseki promises them a seat after 4 years, it will be enticing. That another advantage.
Oshiomole knows that if he fails in Edo, the noose will tight. So he will fight to finish.
He only depends on INEC and Tinubu’s contacts. The nearest states to Edo are Ondo, Delta and Kogi. All these states are not friendly with Oshiomole. So he is fighting for survival too.
All in all, I wish Edo people well. But they should know that Obaseki Win will end the fight once and for all; but APC Win will elongate the fight because the interest of the new governor and Oshiomole must clash in future.

How much did Obaseki pay you?

Kindly correct this misinformation in bold below:

Also geographically, Igbinedion, Obaseki and Ize Iyamu are from Benin axis. Oshiomole is from Esan axis. It’s only Osunbor who didn’t last up to 2 years that comes from South.

daddytime:
Kindly correct this misinformation in bold below:

Also geographically, Igbinedion, Obaseki and Ize Iyamu are from Benin axis. Oshiomole is from Esan axis. It’s only Osunbor who didn’t last up to 2 years that comes from South.

Osunbor is Esan, Edo central.
Oshiomole is Etsako, Edo North.

Obaseki and Ize Iyamu are Bini. Edo South.

Like I asked in previous thread, why does Oshiomole hate Obaseki so much? Is it just 'insubordination?'

And this one he's pushing Ize-Iyamu, a far more experienced politician, does he (Oshio) think he can lord over him?

life2017:


Osunbor is Esan, Edo central.
Oshiomole is Etsako, Edo North.

Obaseki and Ize Iyamu are Bini. Edo South.

Thank you for the correction

alezzy13:
Like I asked in previous thread, why does Oshiomole hate Obaseki so much? Is it just 'insubordination?'

And this one he's pushing Ize-Iyamu, a far more experienced politician, does he (Oshio) think he can lord over him?

I’ve asked this question countless times. Ize-Iyamu is not a level headed guy, he is experienced too. I think Oshiomole is desperate because he thinks no other politician can have that leverage of popularity like Iyamu.
Even top APC guys are not comfortable with that decision. Or maybe he wants to use him to garner popularity for another guy.
Politics is a game shaa

daddytime:
Kindly correct this misinformation in bold below:

Also geographically, Igbinedion, Obaseki and Ize Iyamu are from Benin axis. Oshiomole is from Esan axis. It’s only Osunbor who didn’t last up to 2 years that comes from South.

oshiomole is not esan. Pls



Esan re for obaseki ....

PIMPAR:
How much did Obaseki pay you?

Counter what he said with points and quit being silly!

Anybody that thinks Oshiomhole will defeat Obaseki in this fight, ought to re-evaluate their pattern of thinking.

Oshiomhole, I keep saying, isn't as influential as his praise singers think he is in Edo state.

Oshiomhole dealt his hand too early by disqualifying Obaseki before the primaries.

Well, eye go soon clear some people sha

ODI444:

I’ve asked this question countless times. Ize-Iyamu is not a level headed guy, he is experienced too. I think Oshiomole is desperate because he thinks no other politician can have that leverage of popularity like Iyamu.
Even top APC guys are not comfortable with that decision. Or maybe he wants to use him to garner popularity for another guy.
Politics is a game shaa

@bolded, yes, I believe that is the game plan. The blinding hatred so intense he's willing to use almost anyone to get rid of Obaseki.

Just hope it doesn't come back to haunt him.

If a lightweight like Obaseki could almost cost Oshio his chairmanship seat, it would be foolish of him to believe that a far more experienced Ize-Iyamu who's been in govt since 1999 will be a better option.

Well the next three months will be quite interesting.

popez:


Counter what he said with points and quit being silly!

You would’ve ignored him. I understand how the system has treated us, that it’s impossible in the eyes of many to take critical position without being influenced.

alezzy13:


@bolded, yes, I believe that is the game plan. The blinding hatred so intense he's willing to use almost anyone to get rid of Obaseki.

Just hope it doesn't come back to haunt him.

If a lightweight like Obaseki could almost cost Oshio his chairmanship seat, it would be foolish of him to believe that a far more experienced Ize-Iyamu who's been in govt since 1999 will be a better option.

Well the next three months will be quite interesting.

Yea. Very interesting days ahead. If he joins PDP, it good for him since the party is coming to the table with 2 senators, 4 out of 5 HoR and also won the presidential election in 2019. Delta, the sister state is PDP and some other advantages.
But you know our president is not interested in these things, that’s why it’s possible for INEC to call results that never reflect the people vote.

popez:


Counter what he said with points and quit being silly!

What's there to counter in the misinformation he gathered at Upper benin.
When he didn't even know where Obaseki, Pastor and Oshiomole came from before he was corrected

Many other aggrieved contestants in APC or pdp will support obaseki because he is constitutionally entitled to one term while a fresh person means 8 years.

popez:


Counter what he said with points and quit being silly!

how do one counter foolishness when he or she is not a fool. Only foolish souls like you n the other fool can be countering yourself.

I fear as foolish soul like you do poilical analysis on NL. If Osho will lose let him lose to befitting adversary like the Izeyamu guy not a toddler who does not know his left from right like Obaseki.

alezzy13:


@bolded, yes, I believe that is the game plan. The blinding hatred so intense he's willing to use almost anyone to get rid of Obaseki.

Just hope it doesn't come back to haunt him.

If a lightweight like Obaseki could almost cost Oshio his chairmanship seat, it would be foolish of him to believe that a far more experienced Ize-Iyamu who's been in govt since 1999 will be a better option.

Well the next three months will be quite interesting.

Tap0lane:
I fear as foolish soul like you do poilical analysis on NL. If Osho will lose let him lose to befitting adversary like the Izeyamu guy not a toddler who does not know his left from right like Obaseki.

Which would’ve been more humiliating: defeating him at the primaries or disqualifying him? You don’t know those that work for the governor. If you think Obaseki takes these steps, then you’re naive. There’re strategists at his disposal. If you think he doesn’t have upper hand, why didn’t they wait, so PDP will finish their own process? Why didn’t they defeat him through primary?
Finally, you call everyone fool: how do you come about that?

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ODI444:

Which would’ve been more humiliating: defeating him at the primaries or disqualifying him? You don’t know those that work for the governor. If you think Obaseki takes these steps, then you’re naive. There’re strategists at his disposal. If you think he doesn’t have upper hand, why didn’t they wait, so PDP will finish their own process? Why didn’t they defeat him through primary?
Finally, you call everyone fool: how do you come about that?

[/s]