COVID-19 Cases may Hit 150,000 by October 1st, 2020 in Nigeria

The novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria is gradually growing exponentially, according to the latest figures as published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) reveal Nigeria now has 17,735 confirmed cases as of 17th of June 2020, with 587 new confirmed cases. 5967 cases have been discharged and 469 deaths have been recorded in 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory having carried out 103,799 tests.

The Federal Government under the watch of President Muhammadu Buhari directed several lockdown measures and other regulations in a bid to combat the spread but every of these actions seems to be outsmarted by the Virus. The Inter State lockdown by the President is significantly controlling the spread from reaching other states in the manner at which it is in Lagos the epicentre in Nigeria.

I carried out a full statistical analysis with the available daily data as published by the NCDC. The model I derived showed that according to the rate of growth observed we will soon experience daily cases between 1300-1500 and these may sum up to about 150,000 cases by Independence day 2020. This will happen if the measures put in place remains constant without stringent actions by the Government.

We expect a vaccine anytime soon as that is the final solution to the entire problem.

This analysis is a Time Series analysis done with the R-language Statistical Software and the Python. I followed all Statistical procedure in producing this outcome.



Author

Benjamin Eyeyeh

Benjamin.eyeyeh@gmail.com

P.dipl., BSc (IBADAN) Statistics
MSc (LAGOS) Statistics
Biostatistics and Demography.

Woe to that study